Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[CougarKing]

Beijing talks tough ahead of the expected July 12 ruling of the Hague ITLOS court ruling between China and the Philippines over their conflicting South China Sea claims:

Reuters via Interaksyon(Philippines news site)

Beijing to reject Hague ruling on PH's South China Sea case
By: Agence France-Presse
June 30, 2016 11:41 AM

BEIJING -- Beijing will reject any ruling by an international tribunal in a contentious case brought by the Philippines over the South China Sea, the foreign ministry said, as tensions mount over the disputed waters.

The United Nations-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration said Wednesday it will rule on July 12 in a closely watched case challenging China's claims to much of the strategic waterway.

Beijing has consistently rejected the tribunal's right to hear the case and has taken no part in the proceedings, mounting a diplomatic and propaganda drive to try to undermine its authority.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[MarkOttawa]

USAF being awfully public:

USAF “Officers Give New Details for F-35 in War With China”

Further to this post on the difficulties carrier-based USN F-35Cs would have in a war with China (“range, range, range” amongst other things)...

this air force concept of operations for a very thinly-disguised war with China strikes me as pretty darn complicated (it’s amazing to me that such military planning vs a country not officially a US adversary–yet–should be made public; but the US services can be awfully frank). Could all the advance arrangements necessary be in place in time (e.g. fuel and munitions at all those bases)? Would the foreign governments concerned go along? And what about range to targets, especially those beyond just the coast of the mainland [see comment]?..
https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2016/07/04/mark-collins-usaf-officers-give-new-details-for-f-35-in-war-with-china/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[CougarKing]

China demonstrating how the upcoming ruling at the Hague won't have much of an effect on their intent to secure their claims in the area:

Agence-France Presse via Interaksyon (Philippines news site)

China must prepare for 'military confrontation' in South China Sea - state media
By: Agence France-Presse
July 5, 2016 1:58 PM

BEIJING, China -- Beijing must prepare for "military confrontation" in the South China Sea, state-run media said Tuesday, as it began naval drills in the area ahead of an international tribunal ruling over the maritime dispute.

China asserts sovereignty over almost all the resource-rich strategic waterway despite rival claims from Southeast Asian neighbors -- raising tensions with the United States, which has key defense treaties with many allies in the region.

On Tuesday, China began a week of naval exercises in waters around the Paracel Islands.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[CougarKing]

"Stalking" sounds less politically correct than "doing surveillance and freedom of navigation operations".  ;D

Defense News

U.S. Navy destroyers stalk China's claims in South China Sea
David Larter, Navy Times 10:02 p.m. EDT July 6, 2016

U.S. Navy destroyers have been quietly stalking some of China's man-made islands and claims in recent weeks ahead of a ruling on contested claims in the South China Sea.

Over the past two weeks, the destroyers Stethem, Spruance and Momsen have all patrolled near Chinese-claimed features at Scarborough Shoal and in the Spratly Islands, according to two defense officials.

“We have been regularly patrolling within the 14 to 20 nautical mile range of these features,” one official said, who asked for anonymity to discuss diplomatically-sensitive operations.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[The Bread Guy]

Well, THAT was quick ...

• "Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China, Court Issues Harsh Verdict"
• "China rejects ruling on South China Sea as ‘null and void’ "

 

[tomahawk6]

PRC has commissioned its latest destroyer the Yinchuan.Experts think the ship is not in the Arleigh Burke class but that it might give the Japanese Atago or the ROK Navy Sejong the Great destroyer class a run for their money.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-newest-guided-missile-destroyer-2016-7

 

[Colin Parkinson]

In light of the new ruling, the US should organize an international exercise in those waters with ships from all of the countries except China taking part.

 

[CougarKing]

China begins to rattle sabers and make war threats after not getting its way:

Agence-France-Presse via Interaksyon (Philippines news site)

Angry China claims right to declare South China Sea air defense zone
By: Agence France-Presse
July 13, 2016 2:01 PM

BEIJING, China -- Beijing "has the right" to declare an air defense identification zone over the South China Sea, it said Wednesday as it stepped up denunciations of an international tribunal that ruled against its expansive claims in the strategic waters.

Whether Beijing set up such a zone -- which would require civilian aircraft to identify themselves to military controllers -- depended on "the level of threat we receive," said vice foreign minister Liu Zhenmin.

"Do not turn the South China Sea into a cradle of war," he told reporters, insisting: "China's aim is to turn the South China Sea into a sea of peace, friendship, and cooperation."

(...SNIPPED)

It's not just mainland China that rejected the ITLOS ruling, but the other China (Taiwan) as well.

Agence-Frace-Presse via Interaksyon(Philippines news site)

Taiwan sends warship to South China Sea after rejecting tribunal ruling
By: Agence France-Presse
July 13, 2016 12:36 PM


TAIPEI, Taiwan -- A Taiwanese warship set sail for the South China Sea on Wednesday "to defend Taiwan's maritime territory," a day after an international tribunal ruled China has no historic rights in the waterway and undermined Taipei's claims to islands there.

President Tsai Ing-wen rallied troops on the deck of the frigate, saying Taiwanese were determined to "defend their country's rights," before the warship headed for Taiwan-controlled Taiping island in the Spratly island chain from the southern city of Kaohsiung.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled Tuesday that China has no historic rights to its claimed "nine-dash line" and that it had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights in the exclusive economic zone.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[tomahawk6]

Article outlining the Hague decision and how the PRC has backed away from the so called 9 line.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/south-china-sea-arbitration-award-breathtaking-17004

Notice that the ‘nine-dash line’ doesn’t figure at all in these claims. That suggests that Beijing may have come to the realization that the line has become a historical burden rather than a strategic advantage. The quiet disappearance of the ‘nine-dash line’ from China’s official claims is a major policy change. Although it will be hard to ascertain the Chinese leadership’s latest view on the ‘nine-dash line,’ this statement is ground-breaking in implying that China doesn’t take it as a territorial demarcation line—that is, China doesn’t claim 90% of the South China Sea as ‘a Chinese lake’, as is so often alleged in international media. Such clarification, even if only deducible by implication, is probably the most important signal Beijing wants to send to the outside world following the award.

Also notice that although the claim to sovereignty and maritime rights over ‘all the islands’ appear sweeping, the claim doesn’t specify the nature or scope of those islands. The ambiguity is likely meant to leave room for future negotiation with other countries. It’s possible that Beijing may eventually bring those claims in line with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in some manner, subject to satisfactory negotiation outcomes.

 

[a_majoor]

China reveals an upgrade to their current MBT:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/07/china-reveals-upgrade-t96b-tanks-with.html

China reveals upgrade T96B tanks with improved engines and electronics

China North Industries Corporation (Norinco), has developed a new variant of its Type 96 (ZTZ-96) main battle tank (MBT) in time to participate in the 30 July to 16 August International Army Games organized by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

At least five T-96Bs arrived in Russia on 7 July to take part in the Masters of Automobile and Tank Hardware competition, according to Russian media reports. The 'Tank Biathlon' portion of this competition received wide coverage in Chinese state media last year when Norinco's 50-tonne T-96A MBT was allowed to participate.

Except for an improved ventilation system, the T-96B appears to show no visible changes to the turret, optical sensors or main 125 mm gun armament.

Unconfirmed Chinese reports indicate that computer and digital communication systems have been improved, allowing tank commanders to benefit from common integrated intelligence of the battlefield processed at higher levels of command.

The reports also point to improvements reportedly made to the T-96B's engine, exhaust system, suspension, and running wheels.

The engine and new rear-mounted exhaust system appear to have benefited from those developed for Norinco's VT-4 export MBT. If this is the case, the T-96B may have a 1,200 hp liquid-cooled diesel engine.

 

[a_majoor]

Anyone using the Opera web browser might want to reconsiderASAP:

https://voxday.blogspot.ca/2016/07/chinese-buy-opera.html

Chinese buy Opera

This should shake things up in the browser world, to say the least:

After a $1.2 billion deal fell through, Opera has sold most of itself to a Chinese consortium for $600 million. The buyers, led by search and security firm Qihoo 360, are purchasing Opera's browser business, its privacy and performance apps, its tech licensing and, most importantly, its name. The Norwegian company will keep its consumer division, including Opera Apps & Games and Opera TV. The consumer arm has 560 workers, but the company hasn't said what will happen to its other 1,109 employees.

The original deal, announced in February, reportedly failed to gain regulatory approval. While expressing disappointment that it was scrapped, Opera CEO Lars Boilesen says "we believe that the new deal is very good for Opera employees and Opera shareholders." The acquisition was approved by Opera's board, and the company now has 18 months to find a new name, according to Techcrunch.
That's great news for Brendan Eich and Brave, which is already the best browser out there. I still use Pale Moon for a few things, but 85 percent of my work is now done on Brave.

Anyhow, I would not advise using Opera or OperaMail anymore. It's bad enough to share things with the US government through Google and Microsoft, but this is a whole new can of worms.

 

[CougarKing]

Cooler heads prevailing in Beijing after the recent UN Tribunal ruling over the South China Sea?

IHS Jane's 360

Chinese HQ-9 battery being removed from Woody Island

Imagery taken on 8 July shows most of the dispersed HQ-9 battery components concealed under camouflage netting. Three transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicles and the battery's Type 305A target acquisition radar (TAR) remained uncovered.

Imagery captured a day later shows HQ-9 battery components uncovered and garrisoned together near the radar position. On 10 July, subsequent imagery showed a column of vehicles, including probably HQ-9 TELs, parked on a road adjacent to the island's southern harbour.

<snipped>

At present, Woody Island lacks garrison facilities sufficient to house the HQ-9 battery. Continued construction on the island may result in a garrison and a prepared SAM site appearing in the near future.

Airbus Defence and Space imagery showing the removal of HQ-9 strategic SAM components from Woody Island. The TELs and engagement and acquisition radars are no longer present at the deployment site. Source: ©CNES 2016, Distribution Airbus DS / ©2016 IHS

 

[CougarKing]

A sign showing Putin's support of Beijing's SCS claim?

ABC News (Australia)

China, Russia to hold joint exercises in South China Sea: Beijing
By: Agence France-Presse
July 28, 2016 5:40 PM

BEIJING - China and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the South China Sea in September, Beijing's defense ministry said Thursday, after an international tribunal invalidated the Asian giant's extensive claims in the area.

The drills will be carried out in the "relevant sea and air of the South China Sea", defense ministry spokesman Yang Yujun told reporters at a monthly briefing.

With international diplomatic tensions mounting and Washington regularly sending warships into the strategically vital area to assert the right to freedom of navigation, the move could see vessels from several of the world's most powerful militaries in the same region at the same time.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[CougarKing]

China wants its own BMD/THAAD system:

Reuters

World | Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:01am EDT
Related: World, China, South Korea
China says pressing ahead with own anti-missile system

China's Defence Ministry confirmed on Thursday that it was pressing ahead with anti-missile system tests after pictures appeared on state television, amid anger at South Korea's decision to deploy an advanced U.S. anti-missile system.

An announcement by South Korea and the United States this month that they would deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) unit has drawn protests from China, which warned that the system would destabilize regional security.

The decision by the United States and South Korea is the latest move to squeeze increasingly isolated North Korea, but China worries the system's radar will be able to track its military capabilities. Russia also opposes the deployment.

Pictures broadcast this week on Chinese television were the third time since 2010 that China has publicly indicated tests of its own anti-missile system, state media said.

"To develop suitable capabilities for missile defense is necessary for China to maintain its national security," Defence Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun told a regular monthly briefing, when asked about the footage.
(...SNIPPED)

 

[MarkOttawa]

The really scary elephant in room--thinking about the now thinkable:

RAND on War Between the Dragon and the Eagle
https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2016/08/02/mark-collins-rand-on-war-between-the-dragon-and-the-eagle/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[CougarKing]

Would the CCP really be willing to risk China losing 30 years' worth of economic development and better living standards for its people simply for their claim on the South China Sea? Would Xi and the current seatholders of the Politburo Standing Committee really lose face if they blinked like Krushchev did over Cuba?

International Business Times

Beijing warns of war in South China Sea and urges military, police and public to prepare

China's defence minister has warned of a 'threat from the sea' and to maritime security

Priyanka By Priyanka Mogul
August 3, 2016


China's defence minister Chang Wanquan has warned the military, police and the public to prepare for a "people's war at sea" as tensions over the South China Sea dispute escalated.

The comments come weeks after The Hague ruled against China's historic claims over the disputed maritime asset, stating the country had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights through its activities in the region.

Urging the country to prepare for mobilisation to "safeguard sovereignty", Wanguan called for recognition of the "seriousness of the national security situation".

According to the country's official Xinhua News Agency, Beijing has placed emphasis on a "threat from the sea" and maritime security threats, calling for the public to be educated on national defence issues.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think (guess is a better word) that this is part of a "mid-term" power struggle within the small (less than ten, about seven, right now, I think) leadership team.

My guess is that Xi sees himself as a transformative leader, à la Deng Xiaoping, while the military is trying (and failing, I also guess) to regain some of the power it had.

China will risk some level of conflict ... even with America. They are, I have said, willing to play "bumper cars" on the sea and in the air and even take and inflict a few casualties. Could it spiral out of control? Yes. Are the Chinese leaders, including the generals, that stupid? No, I think not ... but how about others, including the next US president?  :dunno:

 

[CougarKing]

I think (guess is a better word) that this is part of a "mid-term" power struggle within the small (less than ten, about seven, right now, I think) leadership team.

My guess is that Xi sees himself as a transformative leader, à la Deng Xiaoping, while the military is trying (and failing, I also guess) to regain some of the power it had.

China will risk some level of conflict ... even with America. They are, I have said, willing to play "bumper cars" on the sea and in the air and even take and inflict a few casualties. Could it spiral out of control? Yes. Are the Chinese leaders, including the generals, that stupid? No, I think not ... but how about others, including the next US president?  :dunno:

The thing is, all the conflicts the PRC has been directly involved in since 1949 have been mainly land campaigns, with the exception of botched PLA amphibious landings on the Taiwan-held offshore island bases like Kinmen and Quemoy in the 1950s.

Chinese 1945-49 Civil War: mainly a ground war on the mainland but with some small riverine actions as some Nationalist naval units defected to Mao's side
1950s Korean War: mainly an air-ground war when China entered
1960s Sino-India conflict: mainly a ground war over the Himalayas
1979 Sino-Vietnam War: an aborted Chinese invasion with heavy casualties

As stated above, Chinese state media has told the public to prepare for "a People's War at Sea". Despite their force numbers and huge military industrial complex, anyone can see they have limited naval experience. So you think the Politburo Standing Committee is prepared to plunge their country into a limited naval war against the US and its regional allies like Vietnam, Japan, Australia and the Philippines?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Well, almost no one, and that includes the Chinese, ever learns much from experience, do they? If they did we've invented tanks and artillery and submarines and jet fighters by about 500 BCE, we'd certainly fought thousands of wars by then ...  [

I think that the Chinese leadership (political and military) understands that if it, China, is going to play "bully-boy" in a maritime region - South East Asia - then it will need to learn how to build and use maritime forces.

What I don't think is that the willingness to confront, and even to play "bumper cars" with the Americans, if it comes to that, equates, in any way, to a willingness to go to war. My sense is that the Chinese long term plan involves being the regional hegemon ~ replacing the US in that role ~ without fighting for the title.

 

[CougarKing]

All PLA naval and air units on a "war footing"?

Reuters

China conducts "combat patrols" over contested islands
Reuters
August 6, 2016

China's Air Force sent bombers and fighter jets on "combat patrols" near contested islands in the South China Sea, in a move a senior colonel said was part of an effort to normalize such drills and respond to security threats.
The exercises come at a time of heightened tension in the disputed waters after an arbitration court in The Hague ruled last month that China did not have historic rights to the South China Sea.
The air force sent several H-6 bombers and Su-30 fighter jets to inspect the airspace around the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, Senior Colonel Shen Jinke of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force said, according to state news agency Xinhua.


(...SNIPPED)