Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Britney Spears]

So if our trade with the Chinese is so minuscule,

??? Miniscule? China is Canada's second largest trading partner. Although still peanuts compared to Canada-US trade.

the sovereign state of Taiwan,

No such thing exists yet. Presumably you mean the Republic of China.

its not as if we are reaping vast benefits from their "good" will.

Obviously some would have a different opinion on that.

As China is trying to put on its best mask for the international community long enough to get access to the kinds of modern weapons and technology that sanctions have denied them,

There's a little more to it that that, I assure you.

 

[neuromancer]

Great topic!!

First let me say that I was born and raised in Canada, and my wife was born and raised in China.

A major point a lot of people seem to be over looking is that after WW2 the powers in China were
roughly equal between the People Communist Party of China and the Kuomintang (the two partys combined forces to
repel the Japanese but after that threat was gone they went back to fighting each other for control of the country.)
The PRC succeeded in fighting the KMT out of china and chased them to Taiwan, the KMT retreated to Taiwan
which the KMT have occupied ever since.

At that time the land of Taiwan was part of China, the people who were already living in Taiwan before KMT arrived
were considered Chinese by all accounts, even among themselves, the KMT itself were definitly Chinese people (just of
a different political party). Taiwan really does belong to China. Anybody who says differently is selling something.

little fact: About 10 million Chinese died after WW2 when the PRC pushed the KMT
into Taiwan. It was a brutal and bloody struggle. After KMT retreated to taiwan the war ended and
that was when China began to rebuild.

Imagine if there was a war right now in Canada and the Easterners chased the Westerners all the
way back to Vancouver Island, and then stopped fighting. Would the Canadians who lost the war and who
are now living on Vancouver Island (part of the province of British Columbia) have the right to go
independent? How would the rest of Canada react to that?

Wouldnt that be considered a valid reason to go back to war?

Furthermore, Taiwan has never been recognized as an independent nation by the majority of the world.
There are only about 30-40 country's in the world that recognize Taiwan, and a good chunk of those country's
are small African/middle-eastern nations of no major significance. The only two major country's that
recognize Taiwan are USA and Japan, gee.. why do you think they recognize Taiwan? Hmm.. I wonder.

China has said they will not allow Taiwan to separate, China has effectively bound its own hands in this matter.
They have a strong system of honor over there (trust me) and to allow Taiwan to separate now would be a major
loss of face for them, something they simply can not allow no matter the cost.

Also, China has 1.3 billion people, their emerging economy is growing by 10% per year. Do the math. Not much
can really stop their economy at this point other than all out war with the West.

I really doubt America and Japan will come to Taiwan's aid if it comes to total war. Taiwan is just not worth it, and
both USA and Japan have a lot more to gain by trading and partnering with China (1.3 billion with an economy growing
by 10% per year) than they do with Taiwan.

In the end a lot of this comes down to money, and China has a lot more of it than Taiwan. What would be the ecconomic
insentive for USA coming to Taiwans aid against China? If USA doesnt join the conflict neither will Japan.

USA/Jpn will let China clean up its internal affair. They'll protest, but not much more than that.

The same way that Japan went from a smoldering wreck at the end of WW2 to an economic powerhouse is similar to whats
happening in China today, only a lot slower due their bloated socialist regime.

But they're gaining steam now so I think the West does well to play nice and not interfere in an internal conflict.

I have a feeling that the CIA report about 2020 is a lot more on the money than people realize.

China will emerge, and eventually capitalism will give rise to democracy in the middle kingdom.
The West will fade a little, and life will go on.

Nothing to see here folks, move along.  :dontpanic:
</rant>

 

[Britney Spears]

The only two major country's that
recognize Taiwan are USA and Japan,

This isn't true. Neither the US or Japan have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Remember that big deal back in the 70s when  the PRC took over China's Security Council seat and Nixon went to China? It kinda ended there. The Chinese love to accuse Japan of all kinds of things, they're still sore about Japan ruling Taiwan for 50 years, and from their naval bases in Taiwan, dominating the Chinese coastline (another reason why control of Taiwan is strategically important). But aside from that one mayor of Tokyo Ishihara, who most Japanese think is a lunatic, Japan has bee fairly careful not to rock the boat. <a href=http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Foreign-relations-of-Taiwan>Here's</a> a list of nations that do have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. I found it interesting that Haiti was on that list, considering that until last month there were over 100 Chinese police officers in Haiti as part of the UN mission, responsible for training the Haitian police in methods of crowd control("Crowd control is easy, all you guys need is a few T-54s....." ).

Taiwan's biggest diplomatic victory of recent years was in the late 90s when they were briefly recognized by Nelson Mandela's South Africa. Mandela himself feeling a fraternal bond between the two countries. That ended after Mandela left office.

 

[Dare]

Imagine if there was a war right now in Canada and the Easterners chased the Westerners all the
way back to Vancouver Island, and then stopped fighting. Would the Canadians who lost the war and who
are now living on Vancouver Island (part of the province of British Columbia) have the right to go
independent? How would the rest of Canada react to that?

You mean, like how the Americans chased the British all the way up to Canada?..

There are situations and times where we must acurately realize the situation on the ground. That situation is that, at this current moment, Taiwan (ROC), is a defacto independant State in all matters but recognition.

Wouldnt that be considered a valid reason to go back to war?

Furthermore, Taiwan has never been recognized as an independent nation by the majority of the world.
There are only about 30-40 country's in the world that recognize Taiwan, and a good chunk of those country's
are small African/middle-eastern nations of no major significance. The only two major country's that
recognize Taiwan are USA and Japan, gee.. why do you think they recognize Taiwan? Hmm.. I wonder.

What is wrong with recognizing Taiwan, specifically?

China has said they will not allow Taiwan to separate, China has effectively bound its own hands in this matter.
They have a strong system of honor over there (trust me) and to allow Taiwan to separate now would be a major
loss of face for them, something they simply can not allow no matter the cost.

Also, China has 1.3 billion people, their emerging economy is growing by 10% per year. Do the math. Not much
can really stop their economy at this point other than all out war with the West.

That sort of growth is unsustainable. We will see how long that lasts after they are pressured to unpin the yuan.

I really doubt America and Japan will come to Taiwan's aid if it comes to total war. Taiwan is just not worth it, and
both USA and Japan have a lot more to gain by trading and partnering with China (1.3 billion with an economy growing
by 10% per year) than they do with Taiwan.

I would say that this statement is completely underestimating the will on the other side of the fence to keep Taiwan democratic and free. Taiwan is a prize for many reasons, and it is unacceptable, for many in many countries, to allow mainland China to capture it.

In the end a lot of this comes down to money, and China has a lot more of it than Taiwan. What would be the ecconomic
insentive for USA coming to Taiwans aid against China? If USA doesnt join the conflict neither will Japan.

You assume that the USA comes to aid only for economic reasons. That's another mistake. I would also state, that Japan might enter the conflict without the States overt assistance. Recent Chinese activity indicates that they're boiling up nationalist sentiments against Japan on a progressive scale. This, of course, has a reactive quality.

USA/Jpn will let China clean up its internal affair. They'll protest, but not much more than that.

Highly, highly unlikely.

The same way that Japan went from a smoldering wreck at the end of WW2 to an economic powerhouse is similar to whats
happening in China today, only a lot slower due their bloated socialist regime.

I do not think modern China's economy is very comparable to the virtually completely self sufficient and isolationist US economy (at the time).

But they're gaining steam now so I think the West does well to play nice and not interfere in an internal conflict.

I have a feeling that the CIA report about 2020 is a lot more on the money than people realize.

China will emerge, and eventually capitalism will give rise to democracy in the middle kingdom.
The West will fade a little, and life will go on.

Nothing to see here folks, move along.  :dontpanic:
</rant>

Yes, I've heard that before. Nothing to see, move along, indeed. There actually plenty to see, and plenty to observe. The idea that capitalism will definitely give rise to democracy is dependant on many variables. The first one is that the reigning power has to give up their post. I don't see that happening at all. What I see happening is, while many things are being privatized in China. It is merely a tool to attack the US. They have managed to drastically change the entire economic geography of the country with their trade policies. Upon the emergence of an eventual war, they will quickly renationalize their recently privatized factories and companies. The idea of a military economist will (many can say already does) exist.

The bottom line is: They can feign being the Good Guy, benign, or Better than Bush(tm) all they want, but if democracy is to be survived in the region, Taiwan must not fall. To state unequivically that Taiwan's failure must occur in order for capitalism and democracy to prevail, is at best disingenious.

 

[neuromancer]

Thanks Britney Spears, I didnt intend to missinform anyone, I was honestly mistaken myself.
Thanks for the link, very helpful. I've bookmarked it.

According to the link there are only 25 nations in the world that recognize Taiwan.
None of the countrys that recognize Taiwan are major world players, not even one.

You mean, like how the Americans chased the British all the way up to Canada?..

No, not at all, we're talking about chinese nationals fighting in their homeland. The only difference between them was
political party, not nationality. It would be like Liberals and Conservatives going to war inside Canada for who
gets to rule the country and (lets pretend) the Liberals win and chase the Conservatives to Vancouver Island.
Then instead of persuing them further and totally eradicating them from the face of the earth the LIBS simply
stop fighting both sides agree that the LIBS won, then they take stock and start to rebuild the country.

Maybe you need to do a bit more research on just what happened in China after WW2.

Other than that I really dont want to get into a spitting match with anyone, so Im just going to reply to one other thing you said.

[quote author="Dare"]
The bottom line is: They can feign being the Good Guy, benign, or Better than Bush(tm) all they want, but if democracy is to be survived in the region, Taiwan must not fall. To state unequivically that Taiwan's failure must occur in order for capitalism and democracy to prevail, is at best disingenious.
[/quote]

Your missreading me bud. I never said Taiwan MUST fall for democracy to prevail, thats just plain silly.

What I said; Taiwan WILL fall, Democracy WILL prevail in the end... notice how I present
them as unlinked events?

I really don't see China becoming Democratic any time within the next 10-15 years, if and when it does, it
will have little or nothing to do with Taiwan.

However, I do feel Taiwan is going to fall soon, I'd give it two years tops.

And as far as being "better than bush", I think you've completely missread chinese mentality.
They simply dont think that way, and they certainly dont buy into Bush's PR BS.

Sorry, not trying to be offensive or rude, but you could use a history brush up, and maybe
take a trip to China sometime. Who knows, maybe we'll all be there soon enough...  :warstory:

 

[neuromancer]

As they already conduct active intelligence operations in Canada against our citizens, and industrial espionage against our industry, its not as if we are reaping vast benefits from their "good" will.

What I love most!! How people are so willing to believe the worst without any proof, yet our big friendly neighbour to the south
is planning to divert a sewage river into Canada and we dont say anything because we have to play nice with George.

Not to mention Softwood or Beef. Lets look at real industrial/environmantal espionage happening in our front yard affecting
real lives of real Canadians before we go chasing shadows.

Im at the point that I am going to stop believe anything either Cons or Libs say soon, until this is all over.
Who knows when that will be... eh?

How the hell did I get so jaded?

 

[Edward Campbell]

    So if our trade with the Chinese is so minuscule, we can afford to do the right thing (much as that idea shocks our politicians) and recognize the sovereign state of Taiwan, and establish formal diplomatic relations.  If China wishes to start a trade war, then go for it.  As China is trying to put on its best mask for the international community long enough to get access to the kinds of modern weapons and technology that sanctions have denied them, they are unlikely to risk that by acting against so small a player as Canada.  As they already conduct active intelligence operations in Canada against our citizens, and industrial espionage against our industry, its not as if we are reaping vast benefits from their "good" will.

It was only a few years ago that CSIS publicly (through leaks) warned Canadians that France was - and, I believe, still is - conducting active aggressive industrial espionage in Canada.  Just over 35 years ago France actively attacked Canada - promoting secessionism, encouraging violence, and so on.  By any fair measure France was, and may well remain a greater threat to Canada than China is or is likely to become.

 

[Dare]

No, not at all, we're talking about chinese nationals fighting in their homeland. The only difference between them was
political party, not nationality. It would be like Liberals and Conservatives going to war inside Canada for who
gets to rule the country and (lets pretend) the Liberals win and chase the Conservatives to Vancouver Island.
Then instead of persuing them further and totally eradicating them from the face of the earth the LIBS simply
stop fighting both sides agree that the LIBS won, then they take stock and start to rebuild the country.

Maybe you need to do a bit more research on just what happened in China after WW2.

You seem to have missed my analogy. As America and Canada were BOTH part of the same empire at the time, it was akin to the example you provide. Two political factions (Republican and Monarchist) making war on another. We are now two distinct and seperate countries, still one a Republic and one a Monarchy. How often do the British, or Canadians, brood about taking back America for the empire? Or is it just Chinese empires that get the distinction of being permitted an everlasting grudge?

Other than that I really dont want to get into a spitting match with anyone, so Im just going to reply to one other thing you said.
Your missreading me bud. I never said Taiwan MUST fall for democracy to prevail, thats just plain silly.

Of course it's silly, your statement that we should allow Taiwan to fall because we wouldn't want to have "interfered in an internal conflict", implies that you really aren't terribly concerned about losing a good democratic country to a very undemocratic country. Yet you insist that democracy will prevail, and that no one would or should defend Taiwan's democratic system. Should we all appease the tantrum of a giant kid (or in your words, "play nice").

I really don't see China becoming Democratic any time within the next 10-15 years, if and when it does, it
will have little or nothing to do with Taiwan.

I don't see how you can say that, at all. Taiwan has one of the most profound effects on China. If it did not, China would not make such a fuss.

However, I do feel Taiwan is going to fall soon, I'd give it two years tops.

You not only feel that Taiwan is going to fall, but you present that no one should, or would, defend her..

And as far as being "better than bush", I think you've completely missread chinese mentality.
They simply dont think that way, and they certainly dont buy into Bush's PR BS.

I'm not talking about Bush's PR. I'm talking about increasing Chinese nationalist anti-American propaghanda. Which certainly fits well with you calling Bush's PR "BS".

Sorry, not trying to be offensive or rude, but you could use a history brush up, and maybe
take a trip to China sometime. Who knows, maybe we'll all be there soon enough...  :warstory:

In your dreams, maybe. I'll go study those history books that tell me how the PRC has always had rightful claim to Taiwan (since the inception of time, apparently) and that the ROC has no rightful claim to anything (especially not Taiwan). I'll also study the history books that tell me how much of a public mandate to govern a communist dictatorship has over a free market democracy. I know these books exist in PRC and DPRK, they make great history books. If I ever find myself in China, I'll be sure to hit up the local book store and purchase a few.

You skipped an important question I had for you (not surprisingly, I might add). What is wrong with recognizing Taiwan, specifically?

 

[Edward Campbell]

...

What is wrong with recognizing Taiwan, specifically?

The answer, specifically, is that we, Canada, explicitly recognized that Taiwan is a province of China and that reunification is, consequently, an internal matter for the Chinese to settle amongst themselves.  Just over a year ago our (then) Foreign Minister, Bill Graham, said:

â ?Taiwan remains another sensitive issue in our relations with China. As recent events have shown, the possibility and scope for misunderstanding and escalation of tension remain high. We call on Beijing and Taipei to resume dialogue without preconditions, so that solutions can be found that fulfill the legitimate aspirations of people on both sides of the Strait. In keeping with the "One China" policy, which has underpinned Canada's approach for more than three decades, we believe that resolving the Taiwan question peacefully, in a manner acceptable to both sides, will further advance China's standing as an important and responsible pillar of the international system.
http://w01.international.gc.ca/minpub/Publication.asp?publication_id=381075&Language=E

Earlier this year Canada and China issued a joint communiqué which said, in part:

â ? China reaffirms that there is only one China in the world, that the government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government to represent all of China, and that Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory.  Canada reaffirms its adherence to its One China policy and is opposed to any unilateral action by any party aimed at changing Taiwan's status and escalating tensions which would have an impact on the political stability and prosperity of East Asia.â ?
http://pm.gc.ca/eng/news.asp?id=397

Canada's One China policy is clear and constant and has been since 1970.

At the risk of being repetitive:

"¢ What the Chinese say and what they do are not always, apparently - to outsiders - closely related.  The government in Beijing is repeating - as it has for 50 plus years - an official mantra: Taiwan is a rogue province; Taiwan will rejoin China; we are prepared to fight.  This is an important policy position but it is not the only position China takes on a wide range of issues.  China is an important country: a principle regional power and an emerging global power.  It has many, many fish to fry and it does a very good job of keeping most of the balls in the air at the same time - and whatever other analogies might be appropriate.  The Chinese government is highly sophisticated in balancing domestic and foreign policies and politics.

"¢ I do not think forced unification is going to take place any time soon.  There are manifest advantages, for China, in an independent Taiwan.

"¢ The Taiwan government agrees that Taiwan is an integral part of China.  The area of dispute is which of two ancient factions is the rightful government: the long gone (from its 1975 format) Kuomintang or the rapidly fading (from its 1976 format) Communists in Beijing?  Many people in Taiwan (and on the mainland, too) hope that over a reasonable length of time (which need not be measured in short, four year political mandates as in the West) Hong Kong will, indeed, take over China - bringing a great reduction in corruption, general respect for laws, competent, honest courts and some form of conservative constitutional democracy.  When, rather than if, I think, that happens there will be no significant impediments to reunification.

"¢ What is not in anyone's interest - certainly not in China's or Canada's , is a shooting war between China and the West.

 

[Dare]

What I love most!! How people are so willing to believe the worst without any proof, yet our big friendly neighbour to the south
is planning to divert a sewage river into Canada and we dont say anything because we have to play nice with George.

http://www.primetimecrime.com/Articles/Media%20Articles/NP%20China.htm
http://www.asianpacificpost.com/news/article/195.html
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2005/cover012605.htm
http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/06/15/spies050615.html
http://www.faluninfo.ca/nodes/54/
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1118953947201_114363147/?hub=TopStories
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050617/wl_canada_afp/canadapoliticschina_050617174215
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040925/RCHINA25/TPBusiness/International
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=17644

1000 agents, eh? Nothing to see here, move along. Look at the nasty Americans!

Yeah, yeah.. right.

A proof is a proof. What kind of a proof? It's a proof. A proof is a proof. And when you have a good proof, it's because it's proven.

 

[Dare]

The answer, specifically, is that we, Canada, explicitly recognized that Taiwan is a province of China and that reunification is, consequently, an internal matter for the Chinese to settle amongst themselves.  Just over a year ago our (then) Foreign Minister, Bill Graham, said:

Fortunately, there is growing pressure to change that position.

â ? China reaffirms that there is only one China in the world, that the government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government to represent all of China, and that Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory.  Canada reaffirms its adherence to its One China policy and is opposed to any unilateral action by any party aimed at changing Taiwan's status and escalating tensions which would have an impact on the political stability and prosperity of East Asia.â ?
http://pm.gc.ca/eng/news.asp?id=397

It's good to know our values are prosperity and stability over democratic principles and justice.

"¢ What the Chinese say and what they do are not always, apparently - to outsiders - closely related.  The government in Beijing is repeating - as it has for 50 plus years - an official mantra: Taiwan is a rogue province; Taiwan will rejoin China; we are prepared to fight.  This is an important policy position but it is not the only position China takes on a wide range of issues.  China is an important country: a principle regional power and an emerging global power.  It has many, many fish to fry and it does a very good job of keeping most of the balls in the air at the same time - and whatever other analogies might be appropriate.  The Chinese government is highly sophisticated in balancing domestic and foreign policies and politics.

"¢ I do not think forced unification is going to take place any time soon.  There are manifest advantages, for China, in an independent Taiwan.

If China believes that, then why is it every time Taiwan comes close to declaring independence, China threatens obliteration? Do you believe it all to be a show? I think they are very serious and genuine in their threats.

"¢ The Taiwan government agrees that Taiwan is an integral part of China.  The area of dispute is which of two ancient factions is the rightful government: the long gone (from its 1975 format) Kuomintang or the rapidly fading (from its 1976 format) Communists in Beijing?  Many people in Taiwan (and on the mainland, too) hope that over a reasonable length of time (which need not be measured in short, four year political mandates as in the West) Hong Kong will, indeed, take over China - bringing a great reduction in corruption, general respect for laws, competent, honest courts and some form of conservative constitutional democracy.  When, rather than if, I think, that happens there will be no significant impediments to reunification.

How can you say that Hong Kong will take over China, when the reverse has already occured?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3658503.stm
http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2004/09/09/china9325.htm
One country, two systems? Not for long..

"¢ What is not in anyone's interest - certainly not in China's or Canada's , is a shooting war between China and the West.

In the short term, perhaps.

EDIT: Spelling error.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
Not for long..In the short term, perhaps.

EDIT: Spelling error.

And therein, I think, lies one of our fundamental problems: we do not understand that the short term might, and when dealing with Asia should mean decades.  This hideous fascination with right now does not serve us well - it ranks right down there with the cult of celebrity worship.

 

[Britney Spears]

I don't agree with what neuromancer or Dare  has posted, but I think there are still some fundemental misconceptions that are being repeated ad nauseum in the contex of our discussion.

For example, Dare, your talk of "free markets" and "democracies" do little to support your arguments. Every single one of the Asian "Tiger" economies were built on the basis of heavy state intervention, directing national efforts towards rapid, export oriented industrialization. Of the major "Tiger" economies, Japan was ruled by a foreign imposed goverment and Taiwan and South Korea were ruled by single party military juntas. Taiwan's first democratic election occured in 1991, the year when single party rule by the family of Chiang Kai Shek, in power since the 1920s, ended. The military junta in South Korea was overthrown in 1989. The rapid economic ascent of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, the beacons of democracy in the east, was certainly neither "free market" or "democratic", and quite on the contrary were completely dependent on 1) A centrally planned economy, forcibally supplanting an agrarian society with an industrial one, and 2) Repressive, single party authoritarian goverments who used military force  to quell the inevitable dissent.  Although freedom and democracy  eventually came about with economic prosperity, as they do in most developed nations, it is definetly a mistake to think that the opposite is also true.  If you guys want examples of how "free market" economics has resulted in "prosperity", you'd be better off looking in Latin America, where some of the same events are once again repeating themselves.

This isn't meant to be an attack directed at anyone in particular, but again I urge all of the posters here to take off their western-centric blinders about "freedom" and "democracy", do some more reading about the history of the region and try to understand these events in a wider context.


Back on topic, If I were the great leader of the PRC, the LAST thing I would want to do is paint myself into a corner by whipping up more public bloodlust for a goal that is militarily and politically impossible to attain (forced reunification). I'd much rather just suck up the temporary embarrasment now (eh, who cares, I'm still the communist dictator, I still have nukes, bring on the dancing slave girls,  it's all good) say "meh, off you go then." to the Taiwanese and instead capitalize on the economic and cultural ties that are already in place. Given a few years of peace and prosperity on both sides of the strait and the fact that economically Taiwan is already in the Chinese sphere, Taiwan will naturally gravitate into the fold of the Chinese empire willingly. Worst case scenario, in 10 years Taiwan will be China's Canada: wealthy, nice place, nice people, like to wave their little flags and tell people that they aren't Chinese, but everyone knows that they really are....

But I'm too laid back to ever become a politician......

 

[Dare]

And therein, I think, lies one of our fundamental problems: we do not understand that the short term might, and when dealing with Asia should mean decades.  This hideous fascination with right now does not serve us well - it ranks right down there with the cult of celebrity worship.

No, you misunderstand. I meant, in the short term, it probably does not benefit us. I am thinking long term.

 

[Dare]

I don't agree with what neuromancer or Dare  has posted, but I think there are still some fundemental misconceptions that are being repeated ad nauseum in the contex of our discussion.

For example, Dare, your talk of "free markets" and "democracies" do little to support your arguments. Every single one of the Asian "Tiger" economies were built on the basis of heavy state intervention, directing national efforts towards rapid, export oriented industrialization. Of the major "Tiger" economies, Japan was ruled by a foreign imposed goverment and Taiwan and South Korea were ruled by single party military juntas. Taiwan's first democratic election occured in 1991, the year when single party rule by the family of Chiang Kai Shek, in power since the 1920s, ended. The military junta in South Korea was overthrown in 1989. The rapid economic ascent of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, the beacons of democracy in the east, was certainly neither "free market" or "democratic", and quite on the contrary were completely dependent on 1) A centrally planned economy, forcibally supplanting an agrarian society with an industrial one, and 2) Repressive, single party authoritarian goverments who used military force  to quell the inevitable dissent.  Although freedom and democracy  eventually came about with economic prosperity, as they do in most developed nations, it is definetly a mistake to think that the opposite is also true.  If you guys want examples of how "free market" economics has resulted in "prosperity", you'd be better off looking in Latin America, where some of the same events are once again repeating themselves.

Surely, you do not think that South Korea and Taiwan are not currently free market democracies? (Ugh, ugly double negative.)

This isn't meant to be an attack directed at anyone in particular, but again I urge all of the posters here to take off their western-centric blinders about "freedom" and "democracy", do some more reading about the history of the region and try to understand these events in a wider context.

Back on topic, If I were the great leader of the PRC, the LAST thing I would want to do is paint myself into a corner by whipping up more public bloodlust for a goal that is militarily and politically impossible to attain (forced reunification). I'd much rather just suck up the temporary embarrasment now (eh, who cares, I'm still the communist dictator, I still have nukes, bring on the dancing slave girls,  it's all good) say "meh, off you go then." to the Taiwanese and instead capitalize on the economic and cultural ties that are already in place. Given a few years of peace and prosperity on both sides of the strait and the fact that economically Taiwan is already in the Chinese sphere, Taiwan will naturally gravitate into the fold of the Chinese empire willingly. Worst case scenario, in 10 years Taiwan will be China's Canada: wealthy, nice place, nice people, like to wave their little flags and tell people that they aren't Chinese, but everyone knows that they really are....

Many like to try to normalize a state as being as rational as a normal person, like you or I. Unfortuntaly, and especially with such a large state controlled by so few, irrational and unexpected outcomes may become the norm.

 

[Britney Spears]

Surely, you do not think that South Korea and Taiwan are not currently free market democracies? (Ugh, ugly double negative.)

What!? Read the damn thing again.

Many like to try to normalize a state as being as rational as a normal person, like you or I. Unfortuntaly, and especially with such a large state controlled by so few, irrational and unexpected outcomes may become the norm.

Empircal evidence neither supports or refutes this assertion, but if you want to offer up something other than the "rational actor" model of foreign affairs, feel free. Personally, I'm quite partial to the "revolutionary feminist" model: I blame penises for all the world's troubles. 

 

[Dare]

What!? Read the darn thing again.

I did read it. I'm not sure what you're arguing. If you agree Taiwan is a free market democracy, I don't see how that hampers my usage of the terms.

Empircal evidence neither supports or refutes this assertion, but if you want to offer up something other than the "rational actor" model of foreign affairs, feel free. Personally, I'm quite partial to the "revolutionary feminist" model: I blame penises for all the world's troubles. 

Well, I'm sure I can pull up quite a few Psych sources on Group Think and Mob Mentality, and it's unpredictable nature (but I'm way too lazy to do that). Real Politik is the most often used forumla when dealing with a state, but when dealing with a small cabal, you must be aware you're really dealing with the whims, emotions and desires of a few. Not the material needs of the masses. The reality is, states are not always doing what we think they are, and even if they are, they sometimes make mistakes, even at that scale. Many people are shocked when they find out about the local serial killer, because they can't imagine why anyone would do that. And they only can't imagine anyone doing it because they can't imagine themselves doing it. It might not seem logical to you for mainland China to attack Taiwan, but as the other fellow mentioned (and about the only thing said I agree with), China is locked in on this. Years and years of making the promise. It's a national obsession that has always been backed by threats. It may be national suicide to attack a US naval battlegroup, but that's exactly what they're planning and I don't see much deviation in the area of threat/force. I only see a different PR tactic to soften their image and make alliances. Sure, democratic activists and capitalist entrepreneurials have made progress, I just don't see it as sufficient, nor a force that is turning the tide.

 

[I_am_John_Galt]

Every single one of the Asian "Tiger" economies were built on the basis of heavy state intervention, directing national efforts towards rapid, export oriented industrialization ... Although freedom and democracy eventually came about with economic prosperity, as they do in most developed nations, it is definetly a mistake to think that the opposite is also true.

Well said!

Back on topic, If I were the great leader of the PRC, the LAST thing I would want to do is paint myself into a corner by whipping up more public bloodlust for a goal that is militarily and politically impossible to attain (forced reunification). I'd much rather just suck up the temporary embarrasment now (eh, who cares, I'm still the communist dictator, I still have nukes, bring on the dancing slave girls,  it's all good) say "meh, off you go then." to the Taiwanese and instead capitalize on the economic and cultural ties that are already in place.

I suspect here you are in danger of wearing "western-centric blinders" yourself ... I was about to add to this, but it looks like Dare beat me to it in the the latter half of his most recent post.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I said, a couple of pages back, â Å“...Canada, explicitly recognized that Taiwan is a province of China and that reunification is, consequently, an internal matter for the Chinese to settle amongst themselves.â ?

Dare responded:

Fortunately, there is growing pressure to change that position.

Is there; from where?  It certainly has not been detected by anyone with a six figure salary in DFAIT nor, as far as I can tell, is it anywhere on the Liberal Party of Canada's agenda.  Even the Toronto Star vacillates lest it shed Chinese-Canadian subscribers.

I'm sure good, honest, hard working, down right decent Canadians are writing letters â “ and then the PM goes and speaks to the Canada China Business Council.  http://www.ccbc.com/ Call me, please, when he, or even Pierre Prettycurls goes and talks to whatever remains of the Canada-Taiwan Trade Association, if it still even exists.  There are extensive e.g. technology trade partnerships between Canada and Taiwan, including some involving government agencies like the NRC but the last time I can recall a Minister talking to the Taiwanese was back when John Manley was still Minister of Industry â “ and a lot of water has passed under the bridges since then.

My sense of the politics here is that everyone likes Taiwan but nobody really cares.  Taiwan is a valued and trusted source of technology and it is a good, albeit small market.  China, on the other hand, looms large on every well paid mind â “ and, generally, favourably, too.  No one, except maybe TorStar, seems to be really upset re: China spying on Falun Gong supporters â “ as someone else pointed out (here?) some people seem to agree that there are some strange, cultish people at the top of Falun Gong â “ maybe the Chinese have cause to worry. I do not detect any deeper anti-Chinese or pro-Taiwan feeling amongst the Conservatives, save that a few (and a few like minded Liberals) have a generic fear of the yellow peril lurking just off-shore.

That's my personal take on it.

 

[neuromancer]

http://www.primetimecrime.com/Articles/Media%20Articles/NP%20China.htm
http://www.asianpacificpost.com/news/article/195.html
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2005/cover012605.htm
http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/06/15/spies050615.html
http://www.faluninfo.ca/nodes/54/
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1118953947201_114363147/?hub=TopStories
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050617/wl_canada_afp/canadapoliticschina_050617174215
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040925/RCHINA25/TPBusiness/International
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=17644

Good links, interesting stuff for sure!
Some of that stuff is pretty old though, like the media buy up, that seems to have happened right after
the Tienimen Square fiasco. The rest though is pretty interesting.

However again, look at the big picture; Even if China is spying they certainly are not the only ones.
I still rather focus on whats happening south of our border first, certainly there are larger and more pressing issues there.

Not that we should allow ourselves to be taken advantage of by anyone, in any way.
Not by China, not Russian, not America. Nobody.