Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Colin Parkinson]

 

[OldSolduer]

Just say no to Huawei. But I fear we won't.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Likely saying "yes" will be a pre-condition for release of the Micheal's

 

[RangerRay]

Realistically we’re powerless on that. Canada abides by the rule of law; China doesn’t. As soon as the US no longer has a prosecution against her, there’s no legal grounds for us to hold her for extradition. She gets released and is free to go, full stop, regardless of what may happen with Kovrig and Spavor.

In past instances of Beijing’s hostage diplomacy, the Canadian hostages have been deported a short time after the Chinese citizen was released. Can’t do it the same day because then Beijing can’t say they’re not hostages.

We will have to wait and hope. And not let the Liberals go back to business as normal.

 

[dapaterson]

They've been released. Around 20:40 EDT, their aircraft cleared Chinese airspace.

Live announcement by the PM on the air right now.

 

[MilEME09]

They've been released. Around 20:40 EDT, their aircraft cleared Chinese airspace.

Live announcement by the PM on the air right now.

You got to be kidding me, do not get me wrong, glad they are free but this hostage diplomacy BS needs to have consequences for China, they have essentially won.

 

[dapaterson]

The question becomes: what leverage do we have over China?

 

[brihard]

Frig me, that was fast. At least the Chinese had the common decency to be blatant.

 

[MilEME09]

The question becomes: what leverage do we have over China?

Consideration how many Chinese billionaires have assets and property here, if we started taxing a ever living crap out of them, siezing assets, those people would probably press the CPC pretty hard.

 

[dapaterson]

Except a non-zero number of them are in Canada to stay with significant assets that the CCP would love to repatriate.

 

[Brad Sallows]

They've been released.

Just like that. It's as if the accusations against them were all bullshit and they were just hostages, and the Chinese government doesn't even have enough pride to pretend otherwise.

 

[Good2Golf]

Just like that. It's as if the accusations against them were all bullshit and they were just hostages, and the Chinese government doesn't even have enough pride to pretend otherwise.

Not enough pride, or more than enough (internationally-accepted) arrogance?

 

[brihard]

Now that they’re on the way home, time to ban Huawei from our infrastructure, and put a few Fox Hunt operatives in jail for IRPA offences if they can find some that’ll stick.

 

[rnkelly]

So Canada gets to say it followed the rule of law while two of our own languished for ages in a prison in China while their precious executive stayed in a luxurious house in Kits. Embarrassing that we (including the Americans) couldn’t have come to this conclusion sooner.

 

[brihard]

So Canada gets to say it followed the rule of law while two of our own languished for ages in a prison in China while their precious executive stayed in a luxurious house in Kits. Embarrassing that we (including the Americans) couldn’t have come to this conclusion sooner.

American charges, Chinese suspect. The only option within our control would have been to cave.

But enough is enough, and it’s long past time that we get serious about treating China as the adversary it has chosen to be.

 

[Weinie]

Not enough pride, or more than enough (internationally-accepted) arrogance?

It has gone beyond arrogance. This was prima facie that China does not care what other nations think of them, they will do what they want to achieve their strategic ends. There is a reckoning coming.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Chinese aren't even pretending it's anything else, it shows you what they think of Canada. "We don't care enough to pretend"

 

[Good2Golf]

It has gone beyond arrogance. This was prima facie that China does not care what other nations think of them, they will do what they want to achieve their strategic ends. There is a reckoning coming.

Whoa! For a second there, I though you were talking about Canada’s government…

 

[FJAG]

It has gone beyond arrogance. This was prima facie that China does not care what other nations think of them, they will do what they want to achieve their strategic ends. There is a reckoning coming.

Then we better be pretty quick in setting up manufacturing facilities for the $75 billion of manufactured goods we get from there and find another market for the $25 billion of raw materials and agricultural goods we send their way.

 

[a_majoor]

An interesting story to follow is the collapse of the Evergrande group after essentially defaulting on $300 billion dollars in debt. Just to put it in perspective, this is about the same level of debt that Ontario has, or approaching a quarter of Canada's national debt.

It isn't entirely clear how the CCP intends to resolve this - obviously there will be lots of high and tight "haircuts", the question is who is going to eat the losses? Some links with various stories:

Could China’s House of Cards Finally Collapse? « Lawrence Person's BattleSwarm Blog

To bail out or not to bail out: China’s Evergrande dilemma

The Evergrande Group, one of China's biggest real-estate developers, owes more than $300 billion to a number of lenders. Is it too big to fail, or will China bail it out?

qz.com

Evergrande crashes as China dumps ‘build, build, build’ playbook

Beijing is changing the nation’s growth model and the heavily indebted Evergrande has become the first casualty.

www.afr.com

The long term effects will also be interesting to follow. Evergrande isn't the only overleveraged company in China, just the most visible. And just what sorts of linkages are there between these companies, the State banks and the rest of the Chinese economy? Regardless of how this goes down, there will be a lot of questions to be answered.