Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[OldSolduer]

Warren Kinsella thinks the Michael Chong scandal is the biggest one yet for Trudeau.

My latest: the betrayal of the Chong family

Musings

warrenkinsella.com

But but but....pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!!!

I am not sure this will resonate with the average Canadian voter. After all after 174 Canadians and landed immigrants were murdered over Tehran....

And Afghan interpreters lives are in danger....crickets. I am so disgusted with the apathy of the citizens of this country that doesn't give a rats ass for anyone else.

 

[RangerRay]

I’m still waiting for the band of Trudeau apologists who pick fly shit out of pepper to come running with gems like “but PP’s face is punchable” while ignoring Trudeau’s absolute malfeasance.

Although I’m not a Trudeau apologist, I’ll bite.

It’s because PP is going to lose to Trudeau. With all this stench around Trudeau, the Liberals should have turfed him long ago, but they are more scared of a Poilievre government, they will unite; the red Liberals, Tru-Anon cult members, the NDP voters more scared of Tories than Liberal corruption and palm-greasing with Beijing. Poilievre only has his cult and Tory voters like me who hate this incarnation of the Liberals with the passion of a thousand suns. But that’s not enough. PP and Trudeau are turning off blue Liberals, red Tories and swing voters in the suburbs of our larger cities. Unless something changes, these voters are going to stay home. Advantage: Beijing Justin.

In short, Pierre Poilievre is a loser. In these circumstances, the Tories should be running away in the polls. Instead, they’re in a statistical tie. That is not enough. I’m convinced that if O’Toole were still leader, Trudeau would have been turfed a month ago. If Poilievre is serious about becoming PM, he had best start acting like it instead of acting like an internet troll in his parents’ basement. That might impress his cult, but not the voters he needs to win.

 

[dimsum]

I’m convinced that if O’Toole were still leader, Trudeau would have been turfed a month ago. If Poilievre is serious about becoming PM, he had best start acting like it instead of acting like an internet troll in his parents’ basement.

Bingo.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Although I’m not a Trudeau apologist, I’ll bite.

It’s because PP is going to lose to Trudeau. With all this stench around Trudeau, the Liberals should have turfed him long ago, but they are more scared of a Poilievre government, they will unite; the red Liberals, Tru-Anon cult members, the NDP voters more scared of Tories than Liberal corruption and palm-greasing with Beijing. Poilievre only has his cult and Tory voters like me who hate this incarnation of the Liberals with the passion of a thousand suns. But that’s not enough. PP and Trudeau are turning off blue Liberals, red Tories and swing voters in the suburbs of our larger cities. Unless something changes, these voters are going to stay home. Advantage: Beijing Justin.

In short, Pierre Poilievre is a loser. In these circumstances, the Tories should be running away in the polls. Instead, they’re in a statistical tie. That is not enough. I’m convinced that if O’Toole were still leader, Trudeau would have been turfed a month ago. If Poilievre is serious about becoming PM, he had best start acting like it instead of acting like an internet troll in his parents’ basement. That might impress his cult, but not the voters he needs to win.

Not that I trust polling as rule, but he is set to win a minority Gov. Now the coalition, you mention, forming and blocking the CPC and him from forming that Gov is a whole different story. And incidentally I think that will be the outcome as well. The left has well trained central and eastern Canadians to fear the Canadian Conservative.

And who knows what will happen on election night. Tim Houston won a sweeping majority here in NS that no one expected.

As for O'Toole; anyone crying for him now is shedding crocodile tears, and wishing him back probably because PP is the first actual threat to JT and team since Harper. O'Toole and Scheer were duds.

 

[Remius]

Not that I trust polling as rule, but he is set to win a minority Gov. Now the coalition, you mention, forming and blocking the CPC and him from forming that Gov is a whole different story. And incidentally I think that will be the outcome as well. The left has well trained central and eastern Canadians to fear the Canadian Conservative.

And who knows what will happen on election night. Tim Houston won a sweeping majority here in NS that no one expected.

As for O'Toole; anyone crying for him now is shedding crocodile tears, and wishing him back probably because PP is the first actual threat to JT and team since Harper. O'Toole and Scheer were duds.

Polling is a snapshot in time. Not a predictor. Unless the numbers move beyond the margin of error it will be tough for the CPC to win a minority as last minute cold feet votes generally favour the incumbent (mind you the incumbent will be at the past it’s best before date which normally disadvantages them).

Tim Houston won but he read the room right, pivoted to a PC platform and campaign and distanced himself from his federal counterparts. “We’re not them” was essentially his theme. Ford did the same without actually saying it mind you.

Campaigns do matter though.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I thunk Ray is close ... while the poling does, indeed, suggest a Conservative minority is more likely than anything else, it will be a phyrric victory - a repeat of Joe Clark in 1979. The BQ/Liberal/NDP opposition will defeat Poilievre's first budget, no matter what it says.

There is, maybe, one three-step route to a Poilievre/CPC majority:

1. The Conservative vote comes out in full force - likely to happen because most Conservatives really, really hate Trudeau;
2. The Liberal vote stays home - somewhat likely for the Blue-Liberals or Manley-Liberals as we used to call them. I have two friends who are suggesting that is their option for the next election IF Justin Trudeau stays on. But, they will turn out for a new leader - new, as in someone like Carney, untainted by the last few years; and
3. The NDP abandon so-called 'strategic voting' the Liberals and vote heavily for their own, thus creating, in many suburban ridings a situation where the Conservative candidate can "come up through the middle," winning some seats with less than 35% of the popular vote, when the Liberals and NDP split the progressive vote.

It's a long-shot, but possible.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I thunk Ray is close ... while the poling does, indeed, suggest a Conservative minority is more likely than anything else, it will be a phyrric victory - a repeat of Joe Clark in 1979. The BQ/Liberal/NDP opposition will defeat Poilievre's first budget, no matter what it says.

There is, maybe, one three-step route to a Poilievre/CPC majority:

1. The Conservative vote comes out in full force - likely to happen because most Conservatives really, really hate Trudeau;
2. The Liberal vote stays home - somewhat likely for the Blue-Liberals or Manley-Liberals as we used to call them. I have two friends who are suggesting that is their option for the next election IF Justin Trudeau stays on. But, they will turn out for a new leader - new, as in someone like Carney, untainted by the last few years; and
3. The NDP abandon so-called 'strategic voting' the Liberals and vote heavily for their own, thus creating, in many suburban ridings a situation where the Conservative candidate can "come up through the middle," winning some seats with less than 35% of the popular vote, when the Liberals and NDP split the progressive vote.

It's a long-shot, but possible.

I think the CPC and PP will win a weak minority that wont be allowed to form a Gov.

I don't see the BQ/LPC/NDP coalition interested in toppling a Gov on the first pass in the HOC, that generally doesn't work well for instigators. Canadians dont like elections, let alone back to back. So, I see them instead going to the GG and presenting a coalition option.

Polling is a snapshot in time. Not a predictor. Unless the numbers move beyond the margin of error it will be tough for the CPC to win a minority as last minute cold feet votes generally favour the incumbent (mind you the incumbent will be at the past it’s best before date which normally disadvantages them).

Did you get something from my post that insinuated I trust polling ? I'm simply using it as the data set we have at hand.

Tim Houston won but he read the room right, pivoted to a PC platform and campaign and distanced himself from his federal counterparts. “We’re not them” was essentially his theme. Ford did the same without actually saying it mind you.

Blah blah blah... Houston won a surprise majority. No one saw it coming. Election nights are like like play off sports. Its a whole new season.

Campaigns do matter though.

You're kidding ?

 

[Remius]

I think the CPC and PP will win a weak minority that wont be allowed to form a Gov.

I don't see the BQ/LPC/NDP coalition interested in toppling a Gov on the first pass in the HOC, that generally doesn't work well for instigators. Canadians dont like elections, let alone back to back. So, I see them instead going to the GG and presenting a coalition option.



Did you get something from my post that insinuated I trust polling ? I'm simply using it as the data set we have at hand.

No. But you seem to have got something from my comment which was just that. A comment on what I think polling is. And how that statement was meant to support my next comment on the incumbent and the margin of error. Don’t take it personally because it wasn’t a jab, personal attack or what not.

Blah blah blah... Houston won a surprise majority. No one saw it coming. Election nights are like like play off sports. Its a whole new season.

Why blah blah blah? Or is an analysis of how he won not worthy of discussion? You brought him up FFS. I think Tim Houston did a great job and one that the CPC should look at.

You're kidding ?

No I’m not. Are you?

 

[Halifax Tar]

No. But you seem to have got something from my comment which was just that. A comment on what I think polling is. And how that statement was meant to support my next comment on the incumbent and the margin of error. Don’t take it personally because it wasn’t a jab, personal attack or what not.

Why blah blah blah? Or is an analysis of how he won not worthy of discussion? You brought him up FFS. I think Tim Houston did a great job and one that the CPC should look at.

No I’m not. Are you?

Perhaps I'm so used to disagreeing with just about everything you post I jump to conclusion and assumed.

My apologies.

 

[WLSC]

Although I’m not a Trudeau apologist, I’ll bite.

It’s because PP is going to lose to Trudeau. With all this stench around Trudeau, the Liberals should have turfed him long ago, but they are more scared of a Poilievre government, they will unite; the red Liberals, Tru-Anon cult members, the NDP voters more scared of Tories than Liberal corruption and palm-greasing with Beijing. Poilievre only has his cult and Tory voters like me who hate this incarnation of the Liberals with the passion of a thousand suns. But that’s not enough. PP and Trudeau are turning off blue Liberals, red Tories and swing voters in the suburbs of our larger cities. Unless something changes, these voters are going to stay home. Advantage: Beijing Justin.

In short, Pierre Poilievre is a loser. In these circumstances, the Tories should be running away in the polls. Instead, they’re in a statistical tie. That is not enough. I’m convinced that if O’Toole were still leader, Trudeau would have been turfed a month ago. If Poilievre is serious about becoming PM, he had best start acting like it instead of acting like an internet troll in his parents’ basement. That might impress his cult, but not the voters he needs to win.

Way better said than I did couples of threads up. When you leadership is king only in your group, your no leader.

 

[QV]

Way better said than I did couples of threads up. When you leadership is king only in your group, your no leader.

That doesn't explain PP's popularity with young voters etc on his lead up to party leader, he brought more support to the CPC than O'Toole or Scheer did. And look at the high amount of donations. All indicators he's pulled in support beyond "his base".

 

[Remius]

That doesn't explain PP's popularity with young voters etc on his lead up to party leader, he brought more support to the CPC than O'Toole or Scheer did.

He has certainly made a dent in that demographic. He’s been able to connect with them because of his messaging about the economy and economic issues. That’s his strength. And it should be his focus. His use of social media is unprecedented in Canadian politics.

And look at the high amount of donations. All indicators he's pulled in support beyond "his base".

Donations don’t always translate to success. Nor is it always an indicator or broader support. But he has out raised anyone which is to be noted.

 

[RangerRay]

Not that I trust polling as rule, but he is set to win a minority Gov. Now the coalition, you mention, forming and blocking the CPC and him from forming that Gov is a whole different story. And incidentally I think that will be the outcome as well. The left has well trained central and eastern Canadians to fear the Canadian Conservative.

And who knows what will happen on election night. Tim Houston won a sweeping majority here in NS that no one expected.

As for O'Toole; anyone crying for him now is shedding crocodile tears, and wishing him back probably because PP is the first actual threat to JT and team since Harper. O'Toole and Scheer were duds.

Fair enough about the crocodile tears for O’Toole. I still think he deserved another kick at the can and could have pulled it off, but maybe I’m wish casting. It’s irrelevant now.

I still feel strongly that PP is turning off a large part of the electorate needed to win (not me) and galvanizing the other, larger part to hold their nose and vote Liberal. Darrel Bricker at Tory-friendly Ipsos had to burst everyone’s bubble that younger voters were still more likely to vote NDP and Liberals than CPC. Never mind that this group is notoriously fickle and uncommitted when it comes to elections.

Bringing it back to the topic of this thread, I don’t see evidence that PP is willing to really go after Beijing. He is quick to beat Trudeau over the head with the revelations of the Liberals ties to Beijing, as he should. But I have seen no evidence that he is willing to go after the CCP skeletons in the Tory closet either. I would like to be corrected on that, but I haven’t heard anything.

With this Chinese influence scandal, the Tories should be leading by double digits. They have to look at themselves why they’re not.

 

[RangerRay]

I thunk Ray is close ... while the poling does, indeed, suggest a Conservative minority is more likely than anything else, it will be a phyrric victory - a repeat of Joe Clark in 1979. The BQ/Liberal/NDP opposition will defeat Poilievre's first budget, no matter what it says.

There is, maybe, one three-step route to a Poilievre/CPC majority:

1. The Conservative vote comes out in full force - likely to happen because most Conservatives really, really hate Trudeau;
2. The Liberal vote stays home - somewhat likely for the Blue-Liberals or Manley-Liberals as we used to call them. I have two friends who are suggesting that is their option for the next election IF Justin Trudeau stays on. But, they will turn out for a new leader - new, as in someone like Carney, untainted by the last few years; and
3. The NDP abandon so-called 'strategic voting' the Liberals and vote heavily for their own, thus creating, in many suburban ridings a situation where the Conservative candidate can "come up through the middle," winning some seats with less than 35% of the popular vote, when the Liberals and NDP split the progressive vote.

It's a long-shot, but possible.

Right now, I just don’t see those NDP’ers voting NDP. PP has them so shit scared of a Tory government that they will crawl through broken glass to vote for Trudeau. Blame for that lies with Singh who tied himself so close to Trudeau that many NDP’ers don’t see a difference between the two, other than one is more likely to form government. And it’s not Singh.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Fair enough about the crocodile tears for O’Toole. I still think he deserved another kick at the can and could have pulled it off, but maybe I’m wish casting. It’s irrelevant now.

I still feel strongly that PP is turning off a large part of the electorate needed to win (not me) and galvanizing the other, larger part to hold their nose and vote Liberal. Darrel Bricker at Tory-friendly Ipsos had to burst everyone’s bubble that younger voters were still more likely to vote NDP and Liberals than CPC. Never mind that this group is notoriously fickle and uncommitted when it comes to elections.

Bringing it back to the topic of this thread, I don’t see evidence that PP is willing to really go after Beijing. He is quick to beat Trudeau over the head with the revelations of the Liberals ties to Beijing, as he should. But I have seen no evidence that he is willing to go after the CCP skeletons in the Tory closet either. I would like to be corrected on that, but I haven’t heard anything.

With this Chinese influence scandal, the Tories should be leading by double digits. They have to look at themselves why they’re not.

What exactly can the leader of the opposition do about this ? What do you expect him to do ?

What do you think the LPC response would have been if the roles were reversed ? I love alternate history.

I don't think the polling numbers have anything to do with the CPC giving a poor option for change. I think we are seeing in Canada the same thing that's happening all over Western Democracies. Polarization.

Which incidentally is probably thanks to troll farming and misinformation from China and Russia.

 

[QV]

What exactly can the leader of the opposition do about this ? What do you expect him to do ?

What do you think the LPC response would have been if the roles were reversed ? I love alternate history.

I don't think the polling numbers have anything to do with the CPC giving a poor option for change. I think we are seeing in Canada the same thing that's happening all over Western Democracies. Polarization.

Which incidentally is probably thanks to troll farming and misinformation from China and Russia.

You just can't ignore the influence and info ops that have been going to get us to the place we are right now.

And check this out:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/csis-annual-report-1.6831920

Every single time the GoC speaks about China, it sounds weak.

 

[WLSC]

That doesn't explain PP's popularity with young voters etc on his lead up to party leader, he brought more support to the CPC than O'Toole or Scheer did. And look at the high amount of donations. All indicators he's pulled in support beyond "his base".

Perhaps, we'll see. PP needs to bring to the CPC the young from Ontario tall the way to the Maritime to have a majority. The style he's showing is not a style that is appealing for them. That's the main thing he need to change and frankly, it began to be late for the transformation to be seen a real vs cosmetic for the votes.

I do not recall a Statesman in Canada for the last what... (name a year). Mulroney is the closest I can see and even then (certainly today he is but not when he was the PM).

 

[Halifax Tar]

Perhaps, we'll see. PP needs to bring to the CPC the young from Ontario tall the way to the Maritime to have a majority. The style he's showing is not a style that is appealing for them. That's the main thing he need to change and frankly, it began to be late for the transformation to be seen a real vs cosmetic for the votes.

I do not recall a Statesman in Canada for the last what... (name a year). Mulroney is the closest I can see and even then (certainly today he is but not when he was the PM).

PP is not winning a majority. It's just not gonna happen. We are a polarized country.

 

[JLB50]

You just can't ignore the influence and info ops that have been going to get us to the place we are right now.

And check this out:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/csis-annual-report-1.6831920

Every single time the GoC speaks about China, it sounds weak.

Glad to see that even the CBC news people are beginning to bite away at the PM’s heels. One can almost imagine the frantic damage control being done right now at the PMO.

 

[WLSC]

PP is not winning a majority. It's just not gonna happen. We are a polarized country.

That's exactly why all the politicians have to change tone. It's ridiculous how we are polarized when I think it could be way easier. Remove dogma, on all side and we're almost back on track.