Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced from today’s Globe and Mail under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act, is another piece to the puzzle:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070627.wreynolds27/BNStory/robColumnsBlogs/?query=

China growing old before it grows rich

NEIL REYNOLDS
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

June 27, 2007 at 6:16 AM EDT

OTTAWA — Economist Phillip Swagel has held positions with the U.S. Treasury, the International Monetary Fund and President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. Here is an excerpt from his observations, written last year after spending time in China, on the prospects of the world's fastest-growing economy:

"You see [China's aging society] just by walking down the street. There are hardly any children. It's eerie. The one-child policy has been in place for three decades and China is heading into a snap demographic transition - they've created an aging society, but they haven't put into place any social welfare system or any pensions.

"They allowed state enterprises to jettison pensions. There's no formal safety net, and they have put an end to the informal safety net of the extended family. No wonder they save so much. It's all precautionary.

"Who knows what all of this will do to China as the family structure of thousands of years comes to an end?"

China will indeed grow old, in other words, before it grows rich.

Writing in the June issue of The American Interest, Washington-based political economist Nicholas Eberstadt explores further the fascinating economic implications of China's demographic decline - the withering away not of a state but of an entire society.

"Thanks to decades of subreplacement fertility, China's population growth stands to decelerate sharply, and its society to age dramatically, in the coming generation," he says.

Indeed, by UN population analysis and by U.S. Census Bureau calculations, the U.S. (projected population: 350 million) will deliver more babies into the world - in absolute numbers, not in percentages - than China (projected population: 1.5 billion) by 2025.

China has consciously crafted its own authoritarian destiny for the past half century, relying always on coercion to compel progress. Millions of expendable people died in the Great Leap Forward (1957-1960), the Great Famine (1960-1965), and the Cultural Revolution (1967-1977). Millions more have died in the one-child policy (launched in 1978) - in abortions performed for the sole purpose of eliminating girl babies, in post-natal abandonment, and in outright killing. (Abortion is free in China, available through the ninth month of pregnancy.)

In its 2000 census report, China reported that it now has 120 male births for every 100 female births; in some parts of the country, it said, there are 135 male births for every 100 female births; other authorities have put the ratio at 150:100. By 2025, the country expects it will have more than 40 million adult bachelors for whom wives will not exist. Meanwhile, China permits adoption abroad of 12,000 abandoned girl babies a year - 8,000 alone, ironically, to the U.S.

As everyone knows, and knew in the 1970s, the only policy that China (or any other country) ever needed to limit population growth was economic growth. This economic mechanism offers the additional advantage of gender balance. China now officially recognizes that it has a huge problem - but officially maintains its barbaric, coercion-first approach.

Mr. Eberstadt says Americans have regarded child bearing differently from Europeans and Asians since colonial times.

In 1800, the U.S. Census Bureau determined the American total fertility rate was 7.0 (seven births per woman per lifetime); the fertility rate in Britain at that time was 5.7; France, 4.5.

These rates fell as the countries grew richer, but the U.S. rate never fell as far or as fast - "making the United States peculiarly fecund for a contemporary affluent democracy."

The U.S. fertility rate has remained steady for the past 20 years at 2.05 births per woman, 50 per cent higher than Japan's rate, 45 per cent higher than Europe's rate, 35 per cent higher than Canada's rate - and precisely at the rate needed to maintain population. With present immigration included, demographers expect the U.S. to still be growing by 2.5 million people a year in 2025, perhaps the only rich country in the world that won't be shrinking.

Hispanics have the highest fertility rate in the U.S. But Mr. Eberstadt says white, Anglo women are doing their part, too: "The single most important factor in explaining America's high fertility rate these days is the birth rate of the country's Anglo majority - which still accounts for 55 per cent of all U.S. births."

In the generation ahead, Mr. Eberstadt says, "America's exceptional demographic profile will confer advantages on U.S. society" - among them, a youthful population and a growing labour force. The U.S. will be able to afford old people. China won't. What coercive solution then?

nreynolds@xplornet.com
***
By the numbers
120:
The number of male births for every 100 female births in China, according to a 2000 census.
***
40 million:
The number of adult bachelors, for whom wives will not exist, that China expects to have by 2025.
***
12,000:
The number of abandoned baby girls China permits to be adopted abroad each year.

China’s cultural predisposition to have children care for elders/parents will be stretched but is unlikely to actually break.  I was interested to observe a mini housing ‘boom’ in parts of rural China last year.  When I enquired as to why there seemed to be so many new, relatively large houses in traditionally poor agricultural areas (in Hunan, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces) I was told that farmers were building them to attract young women to come and marry their sons and to stay on – to care for the old folks, as all good daughter-in-law should.

China is not the only country to have nonexistent to poor ‘social’ programmes to care for the elderly.  The consequence is not pleasant but it need not be ‘revolutionary.’

----------

This thread has swerved well away from its original intent, as exemplified by the title, and, with all respect to CougarShark, it should be merged with China vs Russia and China, Chaos and Pakistan.  It is better to have one 'superthread' than to search through the index to find the most appropriate one of three or more.


Edit: typos - provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act, and awkward structure - not pleasant but it need not be ‘revolutionary.’

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Done.
I love When Mr. Campbell does my work for me.................now if only he was in my back yard right now with my other hedge trimmer.

Oh well, back to it......................

 

[CougarKing]

Campbell,

There used to be an article on the Times, either online or in the actual magazine which discussed there is an emerging generation of Chinese men who won't have wives of the same age group, which is partially the result of China's decades-old "One-Child Policy" and urban families' desire that their one-child quota be filled with a SON! There have even been stories of female children being drowned in wells by poor rural families who couldn't support any more daughters after bearing several of them, but with no son in sight.

As a result of this creation of a generation of Chinese men without mates, there have also been stories of  women from neighboring countries or in remote rural areas of China being kidnapped and brought to the Eastern/coastal cities of the Chinese heartland. Someone please correct me if they know the actual details of that story/rumor. And yes I am aware that the policy was less enforced in rural areas when the policy was at its height and that people of minority "zus" or minority races such as Uighurs and Tibetans were allowed to have a many children as they wanted while it was the Han "zu"/race  that they had too much of...



Oh well...thus how can one expect a good Chinese daughter to take care of her-in-laws when those potential Chinese daughter-in-laws are in short supply????

 

[Edward Campbell]

Campbell,

There used to be an article on the Times, either online or in the actual magazine which discussed there is an emerging generation of Chinese men who won't have wives of the same age group, which is partially the result of China's decades-old "One-Child Policy" and urban families' desire that their one-child quota be filled with a SON! There have even been stories of female children being drowned in wells by poor rural families who couldn't support any more daughters after bearing several of them, but with no son in sight.

As a result of this creation of a generation of Chinese men without mates, there have also been stories of  women from neighboring countries or in remote rural areas of China being kidnapped and brought to the Eastern/coastal cities of the Chinese hearltand. Someone please correct me if they know the actual details of that story/rumor. And yes I am aware that the policy was less enforced in rural areas when the policy was at its height and that people of minority "zus" or minority races such as Uighurs and Tibetans were allowed to have a many children as they wanted while it was the Han "zu"/race  that they had too much of...



Oh well...thus how can one expect a good Chinese daughter to take care of her-in-laws when those potential Chinese daughter-in-laws are in short supply????

As to the last question: money, that age old, highly effective motivator.

I too heard horrific rumours re: female children and I also was told that foreign (but Asian) women are being imported to overcome the whatever number of millions of 'missing' women.

The other interesting side effect is that we now have the Little Empresses.  Many urban and even some rural families are glad to have girls - knowing that each girl will be able to attract a highly profitable husband.

All that being said, I don't think the consequences of either the 'one child' policy or its impact on the senior:worker ratio will be a 'revolution' maker.  But, add in a long drought and some Islamo-separatist terrorism in the urban East and ... who knows?

 

[Pte AJB]

Cougarshark, I recall reading, in I believe National Geographic, of a young man and his buddies venturing from their small town in rural China to the city to find a bride. They ended up kidnapping a girl from a local store and taking her back to their village. The plans were that they would marry, however the girls continuous crying saved her as this man’s mother deemed her not of hardy enough stock. No exaggeration this is the exact chain of events. One can imagine similar events that end differently.  

The question that intrigues me is how long do either of you (5th Horse and Cougarshark) think it might take before some of those mercantilist "middle class" types figure that they can serve themselves better by overthrowing the guys on top with the aid of the rural "have nots"?

As for the chance of a ‘middle-class’ or even rural revolution, there just doesn’t seem to be any issues that could result in a deep fracture between Party and people. There are tensions (urban/rural, male/female, have/ have not), but not of the gravity required for critical mass.

As a lot of the articles posted have alluded to, China likes the status quo, GDP is growing near 10% per year, it’s industries are developing expertise and experience, and people are getting rich. China was virtually unaffected by the Asian financial crisis, one of the few Asian nations to be able to say so. It is likely sometime in the future the bubble will burst, or at least descend a bit.

It is at this point changes will have to occur. Either that or risk legitimacy. As some have already mentioned, the legitimacy of the CCP is currently rooted in its ability to foster and maintain a healthy economy (what government’s rule isn’t?). An economic downturn will call many to question the continuing role of the CCP.

 

[CougarKing]

All that being said, I don't think the consequences of either the 'one child' policy or its impact on the senior:worker ratio will be a 'revolution' maker.  But, add in a long drought and some Islamo-separatist terrorism in the urban East and ... who knows?

Well the disastrous "Great Leap Forward" of the 1950s (which should be called backward) which saw an estimated 60 million Chinese starved to death according to one source shocked then PLA commanding General Peng Dehuai to the point that he told Mao that he would take the PLA and go back into the countryside and wage a guerrila war against the CCP if Mao and the Politburo did  not do anything about it.  My point is, drought or some other terrible disaster (such as a possible collapse of the 3 Gorges' Dam, causing a massive flood in the Yangtze river area/the Chinese heartland) might just do the trick.



On another side note, in my time in Taiwan as well, local politicians there also debated whether using ROCAF/Guo Min Kong Jun Fighter bombers, or even land-based SSMs to bomb the Three Gorges' Dam or even the Shanghai metropolis were suitable retaliatory responses to a possible PLA invasion of Taiwan.

Thoughts?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Well the disastrous "Great Leap Forward" of the 1950s (which should be called backward) which saw an estimated 60 million Chinese starved to death according to one source shocked then PLA commanding General Peng Dehuai to the point that he told Mao that he would take the PLA and go back into the countryside and wage a guerrila war against the CCP if Mao and the Politburo did  not do anything about it.  My point is, drought or some other terrible disaster (such as a possible collapse of the 3 Gorges' Dam, causing a massive flood in the Yangtze river area/the Chinese heartland) might just do the trick.



On another side note, in my time in Taiwan as well, local politicians there also debated whether using ROCAF/Guo Min Kong Jun Fighter bombers, or even land-based SSMs to bomb the Three Gorges' Dam or even the Shanghai metropolis were suitable retaliatory response to a possible PLA invasion of Taiwan.

Thoughts?

Taiwanese politicians, like their counterparts in Beijing, bring to mind the Bard: "a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

 

[CougarKing]

Taiwanese politicians, like their counterparts in Beijing, bring to mind the Bard: "a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

Well one of the most amusing things for any foreign expatriate to watch on the local TV there is all those scuffles they have in the Legislative Yuan at the time, which beats pro-wrestling any day- hell, one of the MPs/politicians there even went as far as to grab a stapler and staple an opponent's hand to a table as they prepared to exchange blows...  ;D

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced from today’s Globe and Mail under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act, are two articles which provide further grist for our China mill:

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070704.wibasia04/BNStory/robColumnsBlogs/home

Clues to India's future prosperity

MARCUS GEE
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

July 4, 2007 at 6:14 AM EDT

When Henry Ford's Ford Motor Co. introduced the Model T in 1908, it sold for $850 (U.S.), less than half the $2,000-$3,000 charged by competing auto makers. The Tin Lizzie (as it came to be known) was so successful that by the time the 10 millionth rolled off the assembly line, nine out of 10 cars roaming the roads of the world were made by Ford.

Next year, exactly a century later, India's Tata Motors hopes to repeat the trick when it brings out a no-frills car for the masses that will sell for about 100,000 rupees ($2,600 Canadian). That's one lakh in Indian terms of measurement, and the one-lakh car would be the cheapest by far, not only in India, but in the world.

Many in the auto industry doubt that mastermind Ratan Tata, head of one of India's biggest business empires, can keep the cost that low. But if he even comes close, he will have done for India what Ford did for the United States 100 years ago: Put the dream of car ownership within reach of the common people.

At present, most Indians get around by train, bus, motor scooter and three-wheeled auto rickshaw. Indians buy about 1.3 million passenger cars a year, less than Canadians, even though India's population is 36 times as big. But with India's economy growing at 8 or 9 per cent a year, the market is set to boom. One study estimated it will double within a decade. With a population of 1.1 billion, and a middle class expected to grow tenfold over the next two decades, India is a potential motherlode for car makers.

Rather than cater to the upwardly mobile "New Indians" who want a flashy car to advertise their success, Tata is aiming at the lowly striver who wants to get around while getting ahead. The cheapest competing car, Suzuki's Maruti 800, goes for more than $4,000.

But Tata's car wouldn't be a bucket of bolts like East Germany's infamous Trabant. If reports of the secretive project are correct, Tata's rear-engine one-lakh car would have four doors, a top speed of around 120 kilometres an hour and a 33-horsepower engine, but no power steering or air conditioning on the basic model.

No one knows what the creature will look like yet, but Mr. Tata trained as an architect and brought in Italian car designers for the project, so it is bound to be much more than a tin box on wheels. If it catches on, Tata hopes to sell them not just in India but in Africa, Latin America and other parts of Asia - wherever incomes are still relatively low but aspirations high.

Tata is not the only one to see the potential of a low-cost car for the developing world. Every important global car maker, from Toyota to Volkswagen to Peugeot, has plans to produce a low-cost people's car. Chrysler is working with China's Chery and General Motors is working with South Korea's GM Daewoo on no-frills models. Germany's Roland Berger Strategy Consultants predicted in a recent report that 18 million cars priced at less than $14,300 would be sold around the world annually by 2012, an increase of four million a year from the current figure.

Renault's Logan has already sold more than half a million of its basic Logan model, which made its debut at $7,600 in 2004. Now it plans to take on Tata by producing a new model that Renault-Nissan chief executive officer Carlos Ghosn hopes to sell for less than $3,000 and market in Asia, with low-cost India as the manufacturing base.

If it's smart, India could become a hub for the production of small, cheap cars for the world. It has low-cost labour in abundance, hordes of skilled engineering graduates and a growing number of inexpensive parts makers.

Tata honed its low-cost car-making skills with the Indica, a compact hatchback it sells in Europe, and the Ace, a small, sturdy truck that went on sale two years ago for $5,400 and became a huge hit with Indian drivers.

India's recent economic success has been founded to a large extent on supplying services like software development to wealthy overseas clients. Its future success may lie with supplying inexpensive, good-quality products and services to its own people, cutting costs through creative innovation. That was Henry Ford's trick, after all.

But:

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070704.wchrychery0704/BNStory/robNews/home

China's Chery signs export deal with Chrysler

JOE MCDONALD
Associated Press

July 4, 2007 at 2:26 AM EDT

BEIJING — DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group signed a deal Wednesday with China's biggest auto maker, Chery, to manufacture small cars to export to the United States and other markets.

The deal marks the first attempt by a major U.S. auto maker to use China as a manufacturing base to serve world markets.

The companies expect to export their first vehicle within a year to Latin American or Eastern Europe, and models should reach the United States and Western Europe with 2½ years, Chrysler chairman Tom LaSorda said.

“As of today, we're committed to building vehicles here for export,” Mr. LaSorda said at a signing ceremony conducted at a Chinese government guesthouse. “We will combine Chrysler's research and technology and global reach with Chery's lean manufacturing.”

The deal is part of Auburn Hills, Mich.-based Chrysler's effort to cut costs and become more flexible through manufacturing arrangements with local partners around the world.

Chery, founded in 1997, is China's biggest and fastest-growing auto maker, with output last year of 350,000 vehicles.

The Chrysler deal gives Chery an opportunity to improve its skills at it tries to expand exports of its own models, said the company's chairman and CEO, Yin Tongyao.

“Chery is still young, so we should learn from Chrysler and improve our own competitive edge in the near future,” Mr. Yin said.

The first vehicle exported will be a based on Chery's A1 compact sedan and sold under the Dodge brand, Mr. LaSorda said.

He and Mr. Yin said the companies would jointly develop future models, probably with Chrysler styling on a Chery platform.

China is the world's second-largest and fastest-growing vehicle market. It has been a bright spot for U.S. auto makers amid lacklustre sales in their home market. Most major auto makers have set up factories in China, but until now most production has been aimed at satisfying booming Chinese demand.

Mr. LaSorda said that depending on the model and the market, production under the deal could reach several hundred thousand vehicles per year.

Remember that we laughed at the first generation Toyotas back in the late ‘50s and early ‘60s – who’s laughing now?  Not the ‘big three.’

 

[GAP]

The 800 lb gorilla sitting in the room is the total lack of road infrastructure that will be demanded within the next 20-30 years to accommodate all those cheap vehicles. Henry Ford's success was largely responsible for the massive road network the US enjoys today.

Remember "Route 66"?

 

[Benny]

Cars becoming affordable in india? Move to the hills and watch the snow melt with all that CO2...

The kidnapping in china is not a rarity unfortunately, and is usually done in rural areas, with the full support of the kidnappers family. I watched a documentary on one such girl being rescued. She had tried to escape multiple times (resulting in beatings) and had attempted suicide. Tragic story.

 

[CougarKing]

The 800 lb gorilla sitting in the room is the total lack of road infrastructure that will be demanded within the next 20-30 years to accommodate all those cheap vehicles. Henry Ford's success was largely responsible for the massive road network the US enjoys today.

Remember "Route 66"?

With all due respect, have you ever been to China or India? Please don't assume that either China or India are as backward as is the common perception is for most people who haven't left North America (I know you've been to Taiwan at least during your Vietnam days) If you've been taken a bus on the way to Urumqi on the way you'll see lots of well paved roads courtesy of the Engineering Corps of the People's Liberation Army and private companies. If you've ever been to Xiahe, the traditional border of Tibet and China before Beijing annexed it,  you'll see a huge flyover/freeway being built through the mountains. And let's not forget the new road discussed in a recent online article that's supposed to link China to India's Kashmir province...the first road to link the two nations since the 1962 War between both nations. China has been modernizing in leaps and bounds since they opened up to the West in the 80s; as for India, they aim to catch up as well.

 

[GAP]

No, I have not been to China or India, and I do not assume they are backward.

That given, I do not think they have the massive road infrastructure similar to the US built over 50-60 years and their love of the auto.

This discussion revolved around to the impact a cheap vehicle will have on economies, and infrastructure is going to be a major part of that.

Your mention of major thoroughfares is good, but I am more concerned about the road gridwork in between them. Drive anywhere where it is reasonably populated in N.A. and you will find a grid road (not necessarily paved) at least every mile, is that the case over there?

 

[CougarKing]

Your mention of major thoroughfares is good, but I am more concerned about the road gridwork in between them. Drive anywhere where it is reasonably populated in N.A. and you will find a grid road (not necessarily paved) at least every mile, is that the case over there?

It is well developed in the Eastern and Southeastern, industrial coastal provinces that fuel China's economy as well as the Chinese heartland around the Yangtze and Pearl River areas. Of course, many of the poorer or more mountainous provinces will tend to have less roads, but the fact that CCP has focused on building major thoroughfares to connect Urumqi, Lhasa and other major provincial cities with the rest of China means that a paved grid road system is well on its way to being built, since it is a necessity for any nation with a growing population that aims to call itself a "developed superpower".

 

[GAP]

I did not know that, thank you.

edited to add: Is India is the same category?

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Chinese built and build remarkably quickly and well.

Last summer I drove on excellent, limited access, toll highways which connect most of China, not just the 'rich' Eastern Seaboard.  They were better than almost any highway in Ontario and as good as most in Texas.  Even rural roads are well maintained – commerce demands it; local government responds.

My younger son was in India 18 months ago - it, he tells, me is behind China in infrastructure and some building is more difficult but it is happening.  New, good roads are being built to accommodate the needs of a vibrant, fast growing economy.

It helps, I guess, when the ‘zoning hearings’ and ‘environmental impact’ studies are done quickly and almost always favour development.

I think we all need to understand that in both China and India we are dealing with very, very advanced societies - in every single respect at least as ‘advanced,’ ‘cultured,’ ‘educated,’ and ‘sophisticated’ as anything I have ever seen in North America and Europe – the great universities like  Peking University and TsingHua are in the same league as Oxford and MIT.

China and India are poor, very poor, and underdeveloped but they can do and they do remarkable things and they can (although they don’t always) do those things well, too.  The Chinese and Indians have learned from us - they understand how to do in 25 years what we needed 50 to achieve.  Not because they're all that much smarter but they will be able (although they may not choose to) avoid our mistakes.

The Chinese, especially, are meeting a huge pent-up demand for ‘progress’ and a material ‘payoff’ for 50 years of sacrifice.  The Indians are now planning to satisfy similar demands based on their 50 years of democratic development.

China has a long way to go to put in place the sorts of ‘governance’ institutions which will make capitalism work best.  India has a long way to go in dismantling the sort of socialistic red tape which inhibits the best of capitalism.  Both have HUGE corruption issues to overcome; both, I believe will do that quickly, fairly efficiently, and, in China’s case, a wee bit brutally because everyone understands that it is an impediment to the progress they all understand theyneed to make.

Back on my Culture matters! horse.  Both China and India are highly enlightened societies – not liberal, not even a tiny bit in China’s case, but liberalism is the English (and some of the West’s) response to the ideas of their enlightenment, Confucianism is the Chinese response to their, (about 2,300 years) older, enlightenment.

I’m a bit of the fan of the cyclical theory – it works best with China which, over the past 3,000 years, has ‘peaked’ several times – every few hundred years, and has bottomed, too, in between each ‘peak.’  It bottomed, arguably in 1850, after a ‘peak’ during the reign of the Kangxi Emperor about 150 years earlier.  On that basis it’s due another peak within the next 50 years or so.

 

[a_majoor]

India and China are indeed very capable societies, they can muster the ability to create satelites and in China's case launch a manned space mission.

The problem, which Edward alluded to is they have been run as "Command economies" for most of the modern era, which really means the things that get done are what the elites want done. In Capitalist societies, resources are drawn to where the highest rate of return is available, which is why we shop at Wal-marts and the Chinese and Indians make the products for the Wal-marts (but don't have any there, yet).

In the short run, command economies can be very efficient at what the elites choose them to be good at (the surface success of Facist Italy in overcoming the Great Depression was an inspiration to FDR's "New Deal"), but in the longer run, market forces exert themselves and the ship of State ends up creaking along with the crew frantically bailing. The USSR culd launch missions into planetary space, but could not feed its own people.

India and China are moving away from command economies, but I suspect the transition is very tricky, and Russia supplies an example of what can go wrong.

 

[tomahawk6]

New Chinese FAC-M.

http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/littoral/type022.asp

 

[chanman]

India and China are indeed very capable societies, they can muster the ability to create satelites and in China's case launch a manned space mission.

The problem, which Edward alluded to is they have been run as "Command economies" for most of the modern era, which really means the things that get done are what the elites want done. In Capitalist societies, resources are drawn to where the highest rate of return is available, which is why we shop at Wal-marts and the Chinese and Indians make the products for the Wal-marts (but don't have any there, yet).

The problem when discussing anything to do with that area of the world is you have to update your information every few months.

Stores in China

http://www.wal-martchina.com/english/walmart/wminchina.htm


Wal-mart in China, the story so far

http://www.wal-martchina.com/english/walmart/index.htm

Like most major retailers, they've been aggressive in trying to move into China and India, (They signed off on a large joint-venture in India just last November).  Of course, while they seem like indomitable forces in their established market, like Tesco or Carrefour in Britain and France, they can still get pushed out of other markets by competition - Wiki says Wal-mart withdrew from the German and South Korean markets.

 

[Edward Campbell]

As of a year ago Carrefour appeared, to me, to be doing much better than WalMart in Beijing.  It was the old location, Location, LOCATION thing: the Carrefour stores are better located, for now.  As Beijing expands out past the 4th and 5th ring roads - and it will continue to do that - WalMart will likely benefit.

For now foreign brand stores - even if full of local products - are highly popular.  Foreign brands command a premium, quality not being a big issue - and a lot of the 'foreign' stuff is Indonesian and Indian junk.

I agree with the comment about currency of information - things are changing quickly.