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Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

Kirkhill said:
Yes but .... our separatists are bad. Their separatists are good. Surely?  ;)

In a related, if tangential fashion, in all the commentary on the Irish rejection of the EU I heard a German (I believe) MEP describe the debate/battle as one between Sovereignist and Federalists.  I thought that to be a refreshingly honest utterance of particular clarity.

Perhaps all these questions boil down to: Is it possible to create a stable system of governance based on a polity of some 1200 independent and sovereign states with populations of 5,000,000.  That seems to be a good number for a relatively homogeneous society.  (Quebec, Scotland, Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Singapore are all in that order of magnitude).  Or do we need the larger, hegemonic empires for stability? 

If the mantra "Democracies don't go to war against each other" is true, perhaps due an inability to achieve not just consensus but societal focus, then is it possible that a large number of small states each pursuing their own interests might acheive a greater stability than a "bipolar/two party"

world?  On the other hand it might end up being a chaotic equilibrium rather than an ordered equilibrium.

China is unique in that despite a turbulent past it’s borders have remained relatively consistent, lending a strong claim and historical lineage that is ingrained on most of the inhabitants.

 
E.R. Campbell said:
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post, is an article I find interesting for its description of Uighur separatism:

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays_paper/story.html?id=594871
My emphasis added.
Anyone who lived in Canada in the ‘50s, ‘60s, ‘70s and beyond will recognize the highlighted bits. They are from the standard separatist party line: applicable in Xinjiang, the Basque Autonomous Community, Catalonia, Kurdistan and Québec.

One need not sympathize with China’s response to Muslim/Uighur separatism to admit that it (separatism) exists. If the Canadian government could invoke the old War Measures Act to deal with an “apprehended insurrection” then, surely, China may use large red banners to try to stifle their separatists – in fact, of course, the Chinese do use oppression and Gestapo like tactics to deal with their ‘problem,’ not just red banners.

Mr. Campbell,
Speaking of Uighurs and Xinjiang Province, this brings up an interesting dilemma of how the US government will deal with the Uighurs in its GITMO facility:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/06/04/congress.chinese.muslims.ap/index.html

Release Chinese from Gitmo, U.S. lawmakers urge
Story Highlights
House members say Chinese government, U.S. military interrogated men

Ethnic Uighurs should receive apologies and compensation, lawmakers say

They were swept up in post-September 11 search for terrorists

U.S. opposes releasing them except to another country

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Lawmakers chastised the Bush administration on Wednesday for allowing the Chinese government to interrogate Chinese Muslim detainees at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and demanded that they be freed in the United States.

The two lawmakers, Reps. Bill Delahunt, D-Massachusetts, and Dana Rohrabacher, R-California, said the Uighurs -- members of a Chinese ethnic group -- should be compensated and apologized to for any abuse they may have suffered while held in the detention center at U.S. naval base in Cuba.

Uighurs fled their homeland in western China and settled in Afghanistan and Pakistan, only to be swept up in the U.S.-led dragnet for terrorists after the September 11 attacks.

A federal judge has called their imprisonment unlawful, but the Bush administration opposes releasing them unless they can go to a country other than the United States.

At a House Foreign Affairs hearing on interrogation methods at Guantanamo, Delahunt asked Justice Department Inspector General Glenn A. Fine to confirm that Chinese officials were let into the prison.

"We were informed that the Chinese government sent people to interview and interrogate the Uighurs," Fine said.

Additionally, Fine said, FBI officials reported that U.S. military personnel woke Uighurs every 15 minutes in a sleep-depravation interrogation tactic known as "the frequent flyer program" before the Chinese interrogators arrived.

"Did they draw the conclusion that this was, that we had American military personnel collaborating, doing this to, if you will, soften up the Uighurs for examination by Chinese communist agents?" Delahunt asked.

Fine answered: "They reported this was the technique that was used, what they call the frequent flyer program, to put the Uighurs in a position to be interrogated by the Chinese government."

Rohrabacher called the military's involvement "ridiculous." He said the Uighurs should be freed in the U.S.

"And we will call on the government to do so forthwith," Rohrabacher said. "And if it indeed looks like they've been unjustly treated that we offer some compensation as well as an apology."

Both lawmakers agreed to push the Bush administration to release the Uighurs in the U.S., although Delahunt predicted that Rohrabacher, a Republican, "will have more access to the powers that be than I will."

White House spokesman Tony Fratto declined to comment on the issue, and a spokesman for the State Department did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

Under U.S. law, the Uighur men cannot be sent back to China because they are likely to face persecution and torture. The administration has been seeking refuge for them in other nations, and five were sent to Albania in 2006. As of two months ago, 17 Uighurs remained at Guantanamo, awaiting countries to take them.


In March, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the U.S. has "no desire to be the world's jailer, and we look forward to the day Guantanamo is shut down. And part of that solution is working with other countries to take people back under the right circumstances."

A report by the human rights group Center for Constitutional Rights indicates that officials from at least 17 countries have been allowed to interrogate their citizens being held at Guantanamo. The report accuses interrogators from six nations -- China, Uzbekistan, Libya, Jordan, Tajikistan and Tunisia -- of abusing Guantanamo detainees with the consent of U.S. officials.

The group has for the past seven years sought access to U.S. courts for detainees at Guantanamo.

It also makes me wonder how many Hui Ren could be there in GITMO as well; they should not be confused for Uighurs and are ethnically Han Chinese. And why was the US government allowing those Chinese officials- most certainly Ministry of State Security or Guo An Bu agents- into that facility to interrogate them?
 
CougarDaddy said:
...
... And why was the US government allowing those Chinese officials- most certainly Ministry of State Security or Guo An Bu agents- into that facility to interrogate them?

That's easy: the enemy of my enemy is my friend - and all that. Not very subtle, I know, but this is the GWOT - and all that.
 
With Russia now reluctant to sell hardware to the PRC and the US not likely to sell them anything sensitive I always wondered where the PRC would get new choppers.  Apparently from Poland.  Expect to see Chinese knock-offs flying soon. 

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3394355&c=ASI&s=AIR

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESS
Published: 27 Feb 12:22 EST (07:22 GMT) Print | Email

WARSAW - China will buy 150 helicopters from Poland's PZL Swidnik over 10 years under an agreement signed between the Polish aircraft firm and China's Jiujiang aeronautics plant, PZL Swidnik confirmed Feb. 27.

"It is a framework agreement for co-operation over a decade. We will deliver three types of helicopters: PZL Sokol, PZL Kania and SW-4, according to orders that will be specified on a yearly basis," PZL Swidnik spokesman Jan Mazur told AFP.

A standard version PZL Sokol helicopter costs $4 million dollars (2.6 million euros), while a SW-4 costs less than a million dollars.

"We also intend to assemble our PZL Sokol machines in China," Mazur said, but declined to provide further details.

According to Poland's Rzeczpospolita daily, PZL's Chinese partner is preparing the ground for the assembly plant.

Poland's State Treasury controls 87 percent of the PZL Swidnik aeronautics manufacturer, while the remaining shares are held, among others, by the municipality of Swidnik, southeast Poland.

Italy's Agusta company is reported to have purchased a share in PZL Swidnik.
 
Isn't their main medium chopper these days a locally produced Eurocopter Panther?
 
LINK


TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- Taiwan Monday began its annual computer-simulated war game which anticipates an invasion by China, despite warming ties between the island and its mainland rival.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense Spokeswoman Lisa Chi said the Hankuang war game would last five days, but she declined to offer further details. Hankuang means Chinese glory.

Major General Huang Kun-tsung, director of military training affairs, said in March the computer-simulated war game, like past ones, would focus on the Chinese military threat to Taiwan. He said there would also be extensive military exercises in September.

Taiwan's United Daily News and Apple Daily both reported Monday that the computer simulation this year presents a scenario, set in 2009, in which Taiwan loses its air and naval defense to Chinese troops one day after the invasion. The scenario envisions the Taiwan military battling Chinese invaders on the ground, according to the reports.

The newspaper reports also said President Ma Ying-jeou would participate in the war game for the first time as commander-in-chief.

According to Taiwan's defense ministry, the 2007 scenario simulated a sudden invasion in 2012, with the attack led by the Chinese air force. That war game focused on air and naval encounters between the two sides in which Taiwan managed to preserve most of its personnel and military equipment while having difficulties deterring Chinese submarines.


More on link.

Baker
 
Update on Chinese economic figures. The "lower cost of infrastructure" cited is mostly due to shoddy construction practices: look at how quickly the buildings collapsed in the earthquake, and corruption is also a factor: you get money for rebar and concrete but only supply a fraction of the contract, add lots of sand to the concrete and build fast so people don't see how little rebar there is.......

http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/05/updated-china-economic-projection.html

Updated China economic projection

China's GDP in 2007 was 24.66 trillion yuan ($3.38 trillion) and per capita GDP was $2,556, official figures suggest.

UPDATE of this May article:
China's currency is now 6.88 yuan to 1 USD. China's GDP is now $3.78 trillion.

Hong Kong's GDP is $409 billion in 2008

Including Hong Kong and Macau China has $4.2 trillion GDP.

China reports its own military spending at about 417.8 billion yuan. [US$60.7 billion] which would put China as the fourth largest spender after the USA, France and the UK

Rand has estimated China's spending to be 33% higher than reported amounts and DoD doubles the military spending. Either adjustment would put China as the second largest military spender but well behind the USA's military spending.

The Economist magazine noted that China's national economic figures have been inaccurate but that the provincial numbers which show 10% higher growth have historically been shown to be more correct.

Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, calculates that in 2007 the combined output of the provinces was 10% more than that reported by Beijing. Their average growth rate of 13.1% was also still 1.2 percentage points higher than the revised national growth rate, although the gap has narrowed from almost three points in 2005.

Updated projection for currency, US recession and China but not with the 10% higher provincial growth numbers and the new 2007 GDP number. If growth did average 1.2% faster and US growth was weaker then China could pass the USA on an exchange rated basis in 2014. My updated likely estimate is for 2015-2018 for China's economy to pass the USA economy. The most likely years are 2016-2017. The latest exchange rate is 6.94 [6.88 June 20, 2008] yuan to 1 USD. Key factors are the pace of change in the exchange rate, the degree to which China can maintain high growth and how fast the US economy grows. As previously noted at nextbigfuture: China should maintain high growth until 2020 because of the migration of 1-2% of the population each year from rural areas to urban areas. Those people over a few years provide 4 times as much gdp per capita. This provides a boost of 3-6% to the annual growth rate.

Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth Yuan per USD China GDP China+HK/Ma US GDP 2007 24.66      11.9%      7.3          3.38      3.7      13.8  Jun08 26.0                6.88          3.78      4.2            Past GermanyOct08 26.7                6.65          4.0      4.452008 27.3      10.2%      6.35          4.3      4.8      14.0 2009 30.1        9.8%      5.62          5.4      5.9      14.2 Pass Japan2010 33.7        9.5%      5.11          6.6      7.1      14.62011 37.0        9.5%      4.64          8.0      8.5      15.02012 40.6        9.5%      4.26          9.5      10.0      15.42013 44.2        9.0%      3.91        11.3      11.8      15.92014 48.2        9.0%      3.72        13.0      13.5      16.42015 52.0        8.0%      3.54        14.7      15.2      16.92016 56.2        8.0%      3.53        16.7      17.2      17.4 Passing USA2017 60.4        7.5%      3.38        18.8      19.4      17.9 Past USA2018 64.2        7.0%      3.20        20.9      21.5      18.42019 69.2        7.0%      3.09        23.0      23.6      19.0 2020 74.0        7.0%      3.0          25.2      25.8      19.62021 78.4        6.0%      2.9          27.2      27.8      20.22022 83.1        6.0%      2.9          29.4      30.0      20.82023 87.3        5.0%      2.8          31.5      32.2      21.42024 91.7        5.0%      2.8          33.7      34.4      22.02025 96.3        5.0%      2.7          36.1      36.8      22.72026 101.1      5.0%      2.6          38.7      39.4      23.4 2027 106.1      5.0%      2.6          41.4      42.1      24.12028 111.4      5.0%      2.5          44.4      45.1      24.82029 117.0      5.0%      2.5          47.5      48.2      25.52030 122.8      5.0%      2.4          50.9      51.6      26.3  Close to double USA

FURTHER READING
China's economy now third largest passing Germany.

Part of the reason for China's GDP growth, lower cost of infrastructure

China is planning to complete rebuilding from the recent earthquake within 3 years. This compares to longer timeframes for US rebuilding after the San Francisco earthquake (still working on the Bay bridge) and from Katrina. The replacement of the eastern span of the Bay Bridge appears like it will cost $6.3 billion and be completed in 2013. 24 years after the 1989 quake.

The rebuilding of damage from China's quake will cost a lot less than repairs in the USA. $10 billion has been set aside for repairs in China.

The new Olympic stadium (the bird nest) only cost $500 million and was completed in 52 months

China has already started demolition of unsafe structures and towns.

Beijing's new airport (the world’s largest and most advanced airport building)is larger than all five London terminals and cost an estimated $3.75 billion to construct, occupies 14 million square feet and was finished in four years. London Heathrow's Terminal 5 took nearly 20 years to build and cost at least twice as much as the one in the Chinese capital.

Chinese and Russian officials signed a $1 billion deal Friday to have Moscow build a nuclear fuel enrichment plant in China and supply uranium.

The deal calls for Russia to build a $500 million nuclear fuel enrichment plant and supply semi-enriched uranium worth at least $500 million. Earlier this year, a Russian company completed work on two 1,000-megawatt light-water reactors for China's Tianwan nuclear power plant south of Shanghai. China plans to build 40 plants by 2020, tripling the nuclear share of its power generation to 6 percent.

Westinghouse secured a $5.3 billion order from China National Nuclear in July to provide four AP1000 nuclear power reactors in Haiyang, Shandong Province and Sanmen, Zhejiang Province, both in eastern China. Four AP1000 in the USA for Florida Power and Light are contracted in 2008 for $13.7 billion, $2927/kw.
 
Chinese preparations for protecting the Olympics.

30ihuvk.jpg

A view of a newly installed military airbase near the Olympic green on in Beijing, China. In preparation for the summer Olympic Games the Chinese military has installed surface-to-air missile launchers in close proximity to the major venues.
 
http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/77733/post-730045.html#msg730045

Singapore, for example, is a conservative-democracy because the Chinese decided, over the course of 1,000+ years and for their own good reasons, to internalize Confucianism – it made for simple and effective government and facilitated stability in all things. It also made for deeply conservative societies – ones, lke Singapore, that hold their conservative values more tightly than we hold our liberal ones, I think.

I lifted this quote by E.R. from his Comparing Leaders.... thread because I think it speaks to something important on this Chinese discussion.  E.R. has made the point in the past that the Conservatism he describes is tied to clan and tribe and family.

There I think is the nub of the matter.  Our "liberalism" is essentially a religion. It is a belief system.  Individuals consciously review their world and make personal decisions as to wheth wer or not they can define themselves as what they understand to be liberals. They know they want to be liberals because liberals are good (unless you are one of those godforsaken Yanks whose failure to understand English begins with the inability to spell colour and aluminium properly).  Therefore liberals believe what they believe.  Over time though individuals may find themselves to be out of sync with those they thought were liberals and come to identify themselves by some other label. They may become anarchists or libertarians.  In like manner Communists become socialists become social democrats.  Catholics become protestants and presbyterians become methodists.  Peoples beliefs are in constant flux.  Therefore any society based on beliefs can only be a temporary association.

Meanwhile the family continues - despite the best efforts of the social engineers, family courts and kibbutzim.  Adopted children will go to great lengths to discover their blood trail regardless of how well they were raised by their adoptive parents.  Many people from good family backgrounds study history and submit to DNA analysis in order to find blood ties.  I believe that these tendencies, and the tendencies of families to hang together despite varying beliefs within them demonstrate the enduring strength of the family.

Or to put it another way: family blood is thicker than the thin baptismal water of belief.

If the Chinese, and the Arabs, and the Afghans and most of the Third World is still explicitly tied to social structures based on family then it is little wonder that they retain a resilience that makes it possible to outlast our social fashions.  That puts us at a considerable disadvantage in the long game: not an insuperable disadvantage as our society started from the same origin, but a disadvantage nonetheless.

By the same token our internal "conservative" families, with their high birth rates and strong internal ties, I believe, are better placed to survive the long haul than those guilt-ridden, or sybaritic liberals, that choose not to procreate.

Thucydides has posted numerous times on this point.  I find the concept persuasive.

 
Kirkhill said:
http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/77733/post-730045.html#msg730045
...
If the Chinese, and the Arabs, and the Afghans and most of the Third World is still explicitly tied to social structures based on family then it is little wonder that they retain a resilience that makes it possible to outlast our social fashions.  That puts us at a considerable disadvantage in the long game: not an insuperable disadvantage as our society started from the same origin, but a disadvantage nonetheless.
...

I think it is wrong to mix the Chinese, especially, but East Asians in general - to a lesser degree - with Central and West Asians and, especially, Arabs. The latter two have very, very little connection with e.g. Confucian thought and the conservatism that results is, in my experience (limited - but some amongst the Arabs) quite different.

I saw little in Arab culture that corresponds to the Chinese desire for social harmony based on filial piety, community standards, merit, humanity ( 仁 - which Cougar Daddy can explain far better than I! (but it's one of the few characters I can recognize/use readily)) and the concept if the "large person" or gentleman vs. the "small person" - who, thought he might be of 'noble' birth or high status is unfit to rule/govern/administer.

West Asian culture appears, to me, from a distance, to be even weaker than Arab culture. Certainly the Turkic/Uighur* people of Xinjiang  province are, culturally, quite different from the Han majority.

----------

* There are, at least, a three or four ways to spell this word.
 
While I understand your argument that the cultural systems of itinerant Arab traders, central Asian nomads and urban Chinese peasants, merchants and bureaucrats are very different, and I would agree with the observation, my argument goes less to the nature of what has been internalized than the means of internalization.

It is my contention that whatever the culture believes it is believed as a result of training received with the breast milk. It is about Great-Grandfather's example and Granny's discipline.  An Arab, an Uighur and a Han Granny will all teach different things but in this they will, in my opinion, agree: "Follow the way of your Father".  That reinforces what is, again in my opinion, a tendency to find commonality with those of your blood.

By contrast, western individualism, encouragesfor the individual to come to their own conclusions and "Follow their own path".  That makes for a lonely path and one which, if one accepts the "puil" of blood, requires one to actively move against a natural tendency.  Humanity being social, all those lonely wanderers seek company on their journeys.  But if each individual is making decisions on an ongoing basis, and choosing their society based on commonality of decisions and beliefs then those societies are in constant flux.  Their membership constantly changes and their credo likewise changes.  This makes it difficult for the outsider to understand these societies and makes it hard for them to predicate the actions of these groups.

We as a fellow society of individuals find it difficult to deal with the lack of constancy in US policy as the pieces of the US kaleidoscope reorganize themselves every four years.h  To a conservative society like the Chinese, and I accept that premise, it must appear bewildering and, perhaps, frightening.  The flooding of the Yangtze can be predicted.  It can even be controlled by man's collective effort.  The US, with even greater impact than the Yangtze, can neither be controlled nor predicted.

The Arabs and the Uighurs, with their tribal societies, and their similarly kaleidoscopic confusion of changing confederacies are equally threatening.  But where in the west the constantly changing unit has been internalized as the individual, in the Arab and Nomad cultures the individual is constrained by blood, family, clan and tribe.  They follow the patriarch (or occasionally the matriarch).

In that they are more like the Chinese than they are like Westerners (although you may get some contrary examples amongst mediterranean European cultures).
 
I’m afraid I still don’t agree.

The fact that both the Chinese and some other Asians and the Arabs are different from us does not mean that they are, amongst themselves, much alike.

At the risk of oversimplifying:

• You are comparing Western liberals – some, actually many of whom are actually quite culturally illiberal – to a whole host of other cultures (civilizations if you like Sam Huntington and his clash(es) thereof) on a linear scale: ‘we’ are at one end ‘they’ are at the other; but

• A better model is a triangle: ‘we’ are at one vertex, China is at another and some other Asians are at a third. Each culture is unique and quite separate from the others.

Of course we are really viewing a polyhedron, perhaps a Great Strombic Icositetrahedron with a culture at each vertex.

I don’t know enough about the Asian or Arabic languages, but Chinese conservatism and some of the basic tenets of Confucianism are rooted in language. Going back to your image of things learned at the breast, some linguists refer to the very first language we learn as our “milk tongue.” If you are Chinese you learn, very, very quickly, that there are different words for elder brother or sister and younger brother or sister. There are two words for “Grandmother” – one for Dad’s mother and one for Mom’s mother. You auntie who is your dad’s sister has a different ‘title’ from your aunties who is your Mom’s sister. Hierarchy, itself, and a respect for hierarchies is, therefore, part of ‘you;’ you (if you learn Chinese as your "milk tongue") are innately conservative.

Later you lean that words related to old and elder are ‘better’ than those related to youth and younger. You come to know that age and seniority matter. More conservatism is instilled within the family – no school teachers or government officials are required to do the job.

After his parents made him innately conservative it is not surprising that Confucius decided to codify a ‘system.’ It is interesting, but not too surprising, I think, that ‘we’ (Western liberals) find Confucianism difficult to imagine, much less practice. Our “milk tongue” made most of us liberal – but less so for the French and Spanish, for example, who retain the remnants of hierarchy in their languages; we (Anglos) got rid of the last vestiges of that over 500 years ago.

All that to say that Chinese conservatism is natural, for them, and we must understand that they are going to think, plan, act and react as their nature requires – and their nature is quite different from ours and quite different from the natures of the Uighurs and other Turkic peoples, different from natures of the Russians and Arabs and the Indians and Indonesians, too.

When thinking strategically I believe it is critical to use the right mental model: that polyhedron works for me.
 
If I presented the argument linearly then it was merely an attempt to differentiate.  An oversimplification.

My own personal model is closer to the polyhedron but still closer to quantum physics.  Individually we are clouds of decisions.  Individually my decisions make me different from you.  Crossing cultures, the cloud of decisions made by two Han will be closer to each other than they will be to the package that defines me and, dare I say, you and most of the people on this forum.  Now that doesn't mean that you can't find Hans whose individual clouds are more like Anglo clouds or that an individual Anglo can't have affinities with Hans. It just means that on balance there will be more commonalities amongst Han than between Han and Anglo.

I think it is this clustering of decisions (that is a poor word for what I am trying to express for it is not just the active decisions but also the perceptions that define the individual) that outwardly manifests itself as what we choose to call stereotypes.

From that I take that it is possible to predict the likely reaction of a crowd with a reasonable degree of probability more easily than it is possible to predict the actions of an individual.  However, since crowds can be swayed by individuals and individuals are unpredictable therefore it is always possible to be surprised and have the crowd choose to do something unexpected.

I don't know the matrix of perceptions and decisions that define the Han any more than I could accurately define my own with its mixed Anglo Scots heritage, and Brit/Canuck/Yankee acculturation, but I do strongly believe that their matrix weights different aspects differently than most Anglos, or Westerners do.

I think there we agree.

My sense of the West versus the Rest is that one of the outliers where we weight things differently is with respect to the family.  Traditional societies, from all regions and all "races" (to use an oldfashioned term) more heavily weight the family than, I believe, your Western Liberal.  This tendency is particularly acute the further you shift to the Left.

I mention the Kibbutzim, I could have easily mentioned Kindergarten, Day Care, Schooling, family courts, social services...... the myriad of ways in which the West intervenes between parent and child to diminish, and often sever, the links.  This, I believe, is an explicit result of the belief that everybody comes into the world naked and should start on an equal footing. It is perceived as an unfair advantage if one's parents are able to offer more than the parents of another child.  That, in turn, is in direct counter-point to the nurturing instinct of every being to give one's offspring the best possible chance of survival, if only to preserve the seed.  Death taxes, discriminatory practices on school loans that favour the poor, wealth redistribution generally......all well intentioned, founded in the belief that if there are no differences there is no conflict.

But differences will always exist.  My cloud will always be different to everyone else's just as they will alway's be different from each others.   With my friends much of our clouds will look alike. With my enemies much of our clouds will be different.

At bottom, you suggested that we were less tied to our "world view" for lack of a better term than the Chinese are tied to theirs.  You implied that that gave them a strength that our society doesn't possess.  If I understand you correctly then I agree.

And I would put the "attack on the family" at the core of our weakness.

At the same time the cohesion of the Han, may be able to inflict a lasting effect on the west, and I leave the effect undefined, but I don't think they can eliminate the chaotic liberalism of our culture, or the chaotic authoritarianism of other cultures that, I believe, causes them disquiet.  That is because, ultimately, the chaos will continue as long as there exists John Stuart Mill's "lone voice".  And there are many "lone voices" even amongst the Han.

My money is always on the Nomad, not the pampered urbanite.  And that is another characteristic of the Han, a greater tendency to congregate and I believe "concentration of forces" is often seen as opening a window of vulnerability.

From my personal standpoint that same tendency to congregate is found amongst the Western Leftists (Yankee Liberals).  That in itself gives me comfort because in the long haul they are exposing themselves to the same risks as the Chinese but with out the benefit of their "Big Battalions".

I agree entirely that finding the right mental model is key to developing a strategy.

Maybe its appropriate that my own model is defined in terms of 6 billion constantly changing, kaleidoscopically coloured, fuzzy clouds of indistinct size and shape and form.  When viewed up close there is nothing there.   When viewed within the mass of clouds there is only constantly changing confusion.  But if you go up above the clouds then the individual nature of the clouds fade and the kaleidoscope moves from the individual to the group.

Oh dear, getting all philosophical and social science artsy here. ;)


Edit, on that score, think Jackson Pollock if you want a visual analogy to my worldview.  Each canvas looks the same and they all look different and they can all be made into each other by continuing the process that created them.


 
China is likely to affect us in ways we don't even recognise at first....

http://www.wired.com/print/culture/culturereviews/magazine/16-07/st_essay

How English Is Evolving Into a Language We May Not Even Understand
By Michael Erard  06.23.08


The targeted offenses: if you are stolen, call the police at once. please omnivorously put the waste in garbage can. deformed man lavatory. For the past 18 months, teams of language police have been scouring Beijing on a mission to wipe out all such traces of bad English signage before the Olympics come to town in August. They're the type of goofy transgressions that we in the English homelands love to poke fun at, devoting entire Web sites to so-called Chinglish. (By the way, that last phrase means "handicapped bathroom.")

But what if these sentences aren't really bad English? What if they are evidence that the English language is happily leading an alternative lifestyle without us?

Thanks to globalization, the Allied victories in World War II, and American leadership in science and technology, English has become so successful across the world that it's escaping the boundaries of what we think it should be. In part, this is because there are fewer of us: By 2020, native speakers will make up only 15 percent of the estimated 2 billion people who will be using or learning the language. Already, most conversations in English are between nonnative speakers who use it as a lingua franca.

In China, this sort of free-form adoption of English is helped along by a shortage of native English-speaking teachers, who are hard to keep happy in rural areas for long stretches of time. An estimated 300 million Chinese — roughly equivalent to the total US population — read and write English but don't get enough quality spoken practice. The likely consequence of all this? In the future, more and more spoken English will sound increasingly like Chinese.

It's not merely that English will be salted with Chinese vocabulary for local cuisine, bon mots, and curses or that speakers will peel off words from local dialects. The Chinese and other Asians already pronounce English differently — in both subtle and not-so-subtle ways. For example, in various parts of the region they tend not to turn vowels in unstressed syllables into neutral vowels. Instead of "har-muh-nee," it's "har-moh-nee." And the sounds that begin words like this and thing are often enunciated as the letters f, v, t, or d. In Singaporean English (known as Singlish), think is pronounced "tink," and theories is "tee-oh-rees."

English will become more like Chinese in other ways, too. Some grammatical appendages unique to English (such as adding do or did to questions) will drop away, and our practice of not turning certain nouns into plurals will be ignored. Expect to be asked: "How many informations can your flash drive hold?" In Mandarin, Cantonese, and other tongues, sentences don't require subjects, which leads to phrases like this: "Our goalie not here yet, so give chance, can or not?"

One noted feature of Singlish is the use of words like ah, lah, or wah at the end of a sentence to indicate a question or get a listener to agree with you. They're each pronounced with tone — the linguistic feature that gives spoken Mandarin its musical quality — adding a specific pitch to words to alter their meaning. (If you say "xin" with an even tone, it means "heart"; with a descending tone it means "honest.") According to linguists, such words may introduce tone into other Asian-English hybrids.

Given the number of people involved, Chinglish is destined to take on a life of its own. Advertisers will play with it, as they already do in Taiwan. It will be celebrated as a form of cultural identity, as the Hong Kong Museum of Art did in a Chinglish exhibition last year. It will be used widely online and in movies, music, games, and books, as it is in Singapore. Someday, it may even be taught in schools. Ultimately, it's not that speakers will slide along a continuum, with "proper" language at one end and local English dialects on the other, as in countries where creoles are spoken. Nor will Chinglish replace native languages, as creoles sometimes do. It's that Chinglish will be just as proper as any other English on the planet.

And it's possible Chinglish will be more efficient than our version, doing away with word endings and the articles a, an, and the. After all, if you can figure out "Environmental sanitation needs your conserve," maybe conservation isn't so necessary.

Any language is constantly evolving, so it's not surprising that English, transplanted to new soil, is bearing unusual fruit. Nor is it unique that a language, spread so far from its homelands, would begin to fracture. The obvious comparison is to Latin, which broke into mutually distinct languages over hundreds of years — French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Romanian. A less familiar example is Arabic: The speakers of its myriad dialects are connected through the written language of the Koran and, more recently, through the homogenized Arabic of Al Jazeera. But what's happening to English may be its own thing: It's mingling with so many more local languages than Latin ever did, that it's on a path toward a global tongue — what's coming to be known as Panglish. Soon, when Americans travel abroad, one of the languages they'll have to learn may be their own.

Michael Erard (author@umthebook.com) wrote about the spread of the Chinese language in issue 14.04.

 
Thucydides said:
China is likely to affect us in ways we don't even recognise at first....

http://www.wired.com/print/culture/culturereviews/magazine/16-07/st_essay

I don't think this is much of an issue. As stated in the article itself, this is a natural course of languages. Every language is derived from an earlier proto-language. Languages that develop into a regional lingua franca split into different dialects and sometimes into other languages over time. You can't say that Hellenic Greek was exactly the same as Egyptian Greek. Even today, how many Canadians or Americans could understand some (by our standards) British linguistic peculiarities such as 'lorry', 'bonnet', 'loo' or "How's your rabbits?".
 
E.R. Campbell said:
I saw little in Arab culture that corresponds to the Chinese desire for social harmony based on filial piety, community standards, merit, humanity ( 仁 - which Cougar Daddy can explain far better than I! (but it's one of the few characters I can recognize/use readily)) and the concept if the "large person" or gentleman vs. the "small person" - who, thought he might be of 'noble' birth or high status is unfit to rule/govern/administer.

I think you explained it quite well in layman's terms in English, Mr. Campbell. It is pronounced "ren", btw, in Mandarin. It should not be confused with the other characters that are also pronounced with the same pinyin, such as the characters  人 (which means person) or 认(which means to know) in simplified Mandarin.

Furthermore, if you examine the two radicals combined in the character, with the left meaning the person radical or 亻, and the right side meaning the number two or "er",  which is a character of its own when used in an ordinal sense, shown like this 二, you can infer its meaning to be one person, but with two aspects or facets within one important essence or kernel of the popcorn, to put it simply.

As for your continued emphasis on the importance of conservative values with regards to Chinese culture, you are correct in saying in that Chinese society is very much compatible with those values, since I remember Dr. Pan Wei explaining how the Chinese people on the mainland , in spite of all their experiences with Communism, still thought with the same individualism that their self-interested peasant farmer forebears used to survive within a society where it was hard to rely upon or trust anyone other their own family or their JIA (家). Relations outside one's immediate or extended family were called GUANXI or links, since a lot of them were forged upon friendship and conditional trust and a Chinese salaryman who is the successor of the farmer would try to get as many GUANXI, written as 关系, and get to know as many people as possible since one never knew when that relative or acquiantance would come in handy, such as the cousin who is a lawyer or the friend who is a tow truck driver. Even with the variables of age and hierarchy thrown in, GUANXI is still very important and that is why the chaffeur would take his family to visit the house of their boss on the day after Chinese New Year, acting the whole time like sycophants for the boss and even bearing gifts to him in the hope they may even get favour with them at work.

That is why any foreign company that attempts to do business in China alone will fail because the GUANXI or local links or contacts are essential when making or establishing a business in China; a joint venture with a local company, called a HE ZI (合资),  is always the best first step.  

Over time though individuals may find themselves to be out of sync with those they thought were liberals and come to identify themselves by some other label. They may become anarchists or libertarians.  In like manner Communists become socialists become social democrats.  Catholics become protestants and presbyterians become methodists.  Peoples beliefs are in constant flux.  Therefore any society based on beliefs can only be a temporary association.

Mr. Kirkhill,

While I agree with what you said about the ideas and beliefs of people and individuals being always in a state of constant flux, they do not necessarily evolve in the direction that you specified above. And there are certain individuals who stay true to their faith their whole lives because they are not easily influenced by whatever circumstances- positive or negative- that would otherwise cause weaker minds to change.

Moving on, here is another topic:

When I was in Beijing for a semester studying under Bei Da professor Dr. Pan Wei, he said that the PRC would surpass, if not just equalize 1st world nations like the US in GDP per capita and standard of living within the next 20-30 years, IIRC.

China's economy to become world's biggest in 2035 -- study
http://business.inquirer.net/money/breakingnews/view/20...est-in-2035----study

Agence France-Presse
First Posted 09:01:00 07/09/2008

WASHINGTON -- China’s economy will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by mid-century, a study released Tuesday by a US research organization concluded.

The report by economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand more than exports, and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into the 21st century.

"China's economic performance clearly is no flash in the pan," Keidel writes.

"Its growth this decade has averaged more than 10 percent a year and is still going strong in the first half of 2008. Because its success in recent decades has not been export-led but driven by domestic demand, its rapid growth can continue well into the 21st century, unfettered by world market limitation."

Keidel said the rise of China to the world's biggest economy will happen regardless of the method of calculation.

Under current market-based estimates, China's gross domestic product is about $3 trillion compared to $14 trillion for the United States.

Based on a more controversial purchasing power parity (PPP) measure used by the World Bank and others to correct low labor-cost distortions, he said China's GDP is roughly half of that of the United States.

"Despite this low starting point, if China's expansion is anywhere near as fast as the earlier expansion of other East Asian modernizers at a comparable stage of development, the power of compound growth rates means that China's economy will be larger than America's by mid-century -- no matter how it is converted to dollars," Keidel wrote.

"Indeed, PPP valuation distinctions will diminish and eventually disappear."
 
It is statistically impossible for the PRC to surpass the GDP of the US. The people in rural China are at least 50 years behind those in the west. I would bet that half the population live in the countryside.
 
tomahawk6 said:
It is statistically impossible for the PRC to surpass the GDP of the US. The people in rural China are at least 50 years behind those in the west. I would bet that half the population live in the countryside.

I think it is statistically impossible for China not to surpass the US in gross, national GDP by, say, 2050.

Right now China's GDP is about 20% of that of the USA. At sustainable, positive growth rates (pessimistic for China, optimistic for the USA) the ratio should be close to 50/50 by 2030. I didn't bother to run a sensible projection out to the point where China actually surpasses the USA in GDP, proper.

What will take more time is for China's per capita GDP to reach and eventually surpass that of the USA. Europe isn't quite there yet, and it started the 'race' - after massive US (Marshall Plan) support - from a 'better' position (skilled, educated labour force and new (thanks to allied destruction and US financed reconstruction) infrastructure).

The issue is China's immense population. That huge work force - which is making impressive gains in productivity (that will, inevitably, decline) - cannot help but produce more and more wealth (product) at a much higher rate of growth than is possible in the USA. But the poor, backward, rural part of that immense population - while increasingly productive - will hold down the per capita rate for a long, long time.
 
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