Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[a_majoor]

Back in the late 1930s, the Germans made similar calculations, taking a piece of the Rhineland here, a bit of Chech territory there, Austria for dessert...They were not stupid people either, and correctly figured the democracies of the day would not contest bite sized acquisitions or "natural" German territory, until one morning the Reich would be more than twice the size and economic and military potential, at which point the democracies were supposed to cave and accept the imposition of the "New Order".

China has many internal contradictions to work out in the next few decades, the "war option" might be seen as a way to deflect blame and attention, especially if they believe the West would not fight for their fellow democracy because it is "natural" Chinese territory, or the perceived cost of defending Tiawan outweighs the benefits of having a mature and stable democracy in the region.

The other thing which outweighs any preceptions about the relative "smarts" of the Chinese as opposed to the West is pride. The Chinese might find themselves in a situation where their cost of backing down is considered too shameful. Expect irrational decisions (think of August 1914) to dominate the picture then.

 

[Long in the tooth]

Exact right, the Germans made the same calculations... but this time the Chinese don't deal with the British or French but the Americans with 15 US Carrier Groups.  Both sides know they have an escalation trigger....

I have no idea how this will be played out

 

[Croony]

The thing is at the start of WW2 the atomic bomb didn't exist.  If it comes to an american landing on chinese shores and perhaps an eventual spearhead to the capital the chinese will not hesitate to use "the bomb" even if its own people and soldiers are within the killlzone. The leaders there don't care about their own people, it is a corrupt nation that leaves its baby girls in the gutter and allows the poor to get poorer.  No, the next major conflict will not involve china and the US.  The chinese are mostly interested ( and have been mostly interested for thousands of years) in one thing....money...ie properity....having a free taiwan brings china more wealth than if it were conquered and put under its own control.

 

[a_majoor]

Military thinking in the 1920s and 30s was dominated by the chemical warfare threat, and chemical weapons were seen at the time in the way nuclear weapons are seen today. Still, the threat of mustard gas and phosgene didn't slow the Germans down too much.....

 

[Cdn Blackshirt]

If it's me and I'm GWB, I immediately start "unofficially" basing US warships in Taiwanese ports.  Once I've been there for a month or so, I get the Taiwanese legislature to issue a formal invitation. 

At that point, I think this whole issue is dead.  It's one thing for the PRC to consider an attack in which they need to calculate if the United States might get involved, versus planning an attack in which they know they would. 




M. 

 

[rice]

almost their entire force is made up of conscripts

Dan

you know what's really funny...

china doesnt have conscription

 

[Ex-Dragoon]

you know what's really funny...

china doesnt have conscription

You know whats even funnier, you are incorrect. China has selective conscription.

http://www.mothersagainstthedraft.org/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=214&Itemid=62

 

[I_am_John_Galt]

Another opinion: http://thedignifiedrant.blogspot.com/2005/03/ready-set-go.html



Wednesday, March 09, 2005
Ready. Set. Go?

The Chinese will invade Taiwan.

As this article notes [http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050305/wl_asia_afp/chinanpcmilitary_050305014951], the Chinese are getting ready:

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao urged greater development of China's military, saying modernizaton of the army was of strategic importance to safeguard the eventual reunification of Taiwan.

"Strengthening national defense and developing the army constitute a task of strategic importance to our modernization drive and an important guarantee for safeguarding national security and reunification," Wen said at the opening session of the annual National People's Congress (NPC).

Wen said it was an "historical objective" to ensure that the army "is capable of winning any war it fights," but also underscored the importance of the military being run "strictly in accordance with the law."

I've already written about the crash naval building program of China [http://thedignifiedrant.blogspot.com/2005/03/meanwhile-in-pacific.html] that seems clearly directed at an amphibious invasion and a naval interference operation to keep us away long enough to conquer Taiwan.

The Chinese are also getting set with a new anti-secession law [http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050308/ap_on_re_as/china_taiwan] that will provide their justification for naked aggression against a free people in a tiny country:

The proposed anti-secession law, read out for the first time before the ceremonial National People's Congress, does not specify what actions might invite a Chinese attack.

"If possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," Wang Zhaoguo, deputy chairman of the congress' Standing Committee, told the nearly 3,000 members gathered in the Great Hall of the People.

Beijing claims Taiwan, which split from China since 1949, as part of its territory. The communist mainland repeatedly has threatened to invade if Taiwan tries to make its independence permanent, and the new law does not impose any new conditions or make new threats. But it lays out for the first time legal requirements for military action.

The only question is when China will go. I think it will be on the eve of the 2008 Peking summer Olympics. China will have the security issue to cover mobilization and movement of military units. And everybody will assume China is using the attention as a coming out party to highlight their advances and their place in the sun. I think swallowing China under the nose of US and Japanese protection will be even better to demonstrate their power. Why else go on a crash building program for naval units?

This article in the Taipei Times, however, thinks China will use the 2008 Olympics to whip up nationalism [http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2005/03/07/2003225857] and then focus on absorbing Taiwan in the years that follow:

Some say that China's current focus is on economic development, and that it has no intention of further pressuring Taiwan. But as the communist government is unable to carry out domestic reform, heightened tension with the outside world is the best way to retain its hold on power.

What's more, China is feeling confident, and many specialists in Chinese strategy feel that if China could ride out the storm after the Tiananmen Massacre of 1989 when it was still weak, there is no reason to worry about the economic cost of a military attack on Taiwan now, when China is strong and Taiwan is weak.

The main target for Hu and his leadership is, however, the Beijing Olympics in 2008. But if the Olympics are concluded successfully, surging nationalist sentiment and strong economic confidence may well convince Hu to seek a resolution to the Taiwan issue before his term in power is over. The anti-secession law can therefore not be passively understood as an anti-independence law. Rather, it has to be understood as an aggressive measure aimed at actively resolving the Taiwan issue.

I think the Taiwanese are underestimating the urgency of the situation. I think the article is exactly right that the Chinese believe their power will compel enough of the world to shrug and get back to business with Peking to make the repercussions of taking a free Taiwan endurable.

Would we mass the Marine Corps to liberate Taiwan? China may not be the old Soviet Union, but they have some nukes that can reach the mainland--not to mention Guam, Alaska, and Hawaii. We have never had two major nuclear powers fight an extended war. Will we risk it? Should we?

The best way to avoid this is to make Taiwan strong enough to hold the line while US and Japanese forces rush to repel a Chinese invasion. If China knows this, they may hold off in the hope that the future will change the strategic situation in their favor.

The second best way to avoid the escalation problem is to win quickly, if the Chinese delude themselves into thinking the US and/or Japan will not defend Taiwan and that the Taiwanese cannot resist. Cripple the first wave; crush the paratroopers and infantry that come across the beach; interdict the follow-up waves with naval and air power; and hit the ports of embarkation. Do all this and make sure Taiwan can throw the Chinese back into the sea so the war ends quickly.

The war against Islamist nutballs is bad enough. I would really like it if the Chinese evolved some sanity and became a normal, civilize country without territorial objectives to be achieved at others expense. You'd think China would recognize it has enough problems 360 degrees without driving us into the enemy camp.

The Chinese are getting ready. They are getting set. When will they go?

posted by Brian J. Dunn

 

[rice]

You know whats even funnier, you are incorrect. China has selective conscription.

http://www.mothersagainstthedraft.org/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=214&Itemid=62

that is pretty funny, becasuse that website is wrong, and so are you. i know the cia world factbook says the same thing about compulsory service, but...what's not true is not true. been to china before seen it myself, perfectly able 18 yr olds going to university or college or job...but not in the army like cia claims

ask a chinese person, PRC (mainland china) has no forced military committment

ROC (taiwan) does, im from there

 

[Torlyn]

ask a chinese person, PRC (mainland china) has no forced military committment

Funny...  I did, and they have conscription.  Now, if you'd acutally READ Ex-Dragoon's post, (I understand it must be hard to read with your head in your butt, but maybe with a flashlight...) you'd see that he said "selective conscription".  Oh, and from the Chinese, "The PLA has about 2.5 million members, the majority of which are enlisted soldiers who are conscripted".  :

T

 

[rice]

Funny...   I did, and they have conscription.   Now, if you'd acutally READ Ex-Dragoon's post, (I understand it must be hard to read with your head in your butt, but maybe with a flashlight...) you'd see that he said "selective conscription".   Oh, and from the Chinese, "The PLA has about 2.5 million members, the majority of which are enlisted soldiers who are conscripted".    :

T

i dont know why you're being such a dick. i certainly didnt come here with the intention of insulting someone, but you seem to have a real big problem with people who have different opinions
now if you actually READ my post, (i could insert some random trash talk here, but im not you)
you'd see that i said "there are perfectly able 18 year olds going to university or college or jobs...but not in the army like cia claims" im not talking about Ex-Dragoon's post

all im saying, is that from my experience as a taiwan-born person, it is my understanding that mainland china does not have a policy of forced military service. im not defending china, im from taiwan. all im trying to convey is what i believe to be the honest truth

have a good day

 

[loyalcana]

Funny...   I did, and they have conscription.   Now, if you'd acutally READ Ex-Dragoon's post, (I understand it must be hard to read with your head in your butt, but maybe with a flashlight...) you'd see that he said "selective conscription".   Oh, and from the Chinese, "The PLA has about 2.5 million members, the majority of which are enlisted soldiers who are conscripted".    :

T

While it is true that most most of the enlisted personel of the Chinese Army were conscripted into service most eventually choose to extend beyond their mandated draft terms.

 

[loyalcana]

The chinese are mostly interested ( and have been mostly interested for thousands of years) in one thing....money...ie properity...

Well you can replace "chinese" with "humans" and that sentence would still make sense.

 

[Ex-Dragoon]

all im saying, is that from my experience as a taiwan-born person, it is my understanding that mainland china does not have a policy of forced military service. im not defending china, im from taiwan. all im trying to convey is what i believe to be the honest truth

You have gone from stating a fact to stating a belief. If you are not 100% certain then don't try and opull the wool over our eyes it won't work. BTW why your at it I suggest you read the conduct guidelines. With an attitude like that I think you are a prime candidtate for warnings and probably getting banned, so word to the wise change your tune.

 

[Torlyn]

i dont know why you're being such a dick. all im saying, is that from my experience as a taiwan-born person, it is my understanding that mainland china does not have a policy of forced military service. im not defending china, im from taiwan. all im trying to convey is what i believe to be the honest truth

First off, don't alter your posts after they've been torn apart.  Makes it look like you're hiding something, or trying to alter the record to make yourself look better.  Second, my respose was a retort to the BS you shovelled on Ex-Dragoon when he said there is "SELECTIVE" conscription, and you told him he was wrong, and said there is no "FORCED" conscription.  If you are unable to coherently post your thoughts, perhaps you shouldn't post.

Lastly, why am I being a dick?  Easy.  You just started posting here, and you have the unmitigated audacity to call one of the senior posters here a liar.  Gee, why would I be a dick to you?  Can't imagine... :  It's super that you were born in Taiwan, and I'm sure you have a hoarde of experience regarding Mainland China living on the island, but face it.  You're wrong.  The Chinese have selective conscription (as Ex-Dragoon said) and as for college/university students, they are actively recruiting.  Just out of curiosity, is everyone who was born in Taiwan an automatic expert on all things Chinese?  As for conveying the truth, Ex-Dragoon and I have shown you what the "truth" is.  You just seemed to have too closed a mind to accept it.

T

 

[rice]

You have gone from stating a fact to stating a belief. If you are not 100% certain then don't try and opull the wool over our eyes it won't work. BTW why your at it I suggest you read the conduct guidelines. With an attitude like that I think you are a prime candidtate for warnings and probably getting banned, so word to the wise change your tune.

okay look, i apologize for making an opposing opinion. disagreeing with a senior member is obviously not allowed on this forum, so, if it really irks you that i dont agree with you, ban me. i dont remember china having forced military service, or conscription, but if it makes you feel better that they do, then whatever flows your boat. it's weird how the western web sources agree with you, while asian web sources say the opposite, but then what do asians know. i could be wrong, but then im merely expressing an opinion. sorry if that came across the wrong way

 

[rice]

First off, don't alter your posts after they've been torn apart.   Makes it look like you're hiding something, or trying to alter the record to make yourself look better.   Second, my respose was a retort to the BS you shovelled on Ex-Dragoon when he said there is "SELECTIVE" conscription, and you told him he was wrong, and said there is no "FORCED" conscription.   If you are unable to coherently post your thoughts, perhaps you shouldn't post.

Lastly, why am I being a dick?   Easy.   You just started posting here, and you have the unmitigated audacity to call one of the senior posters here a liar.   Gee, why would I be a dick to you?   Can't imagine... :   It's super that you were born in Taiwan, and I'm sure you have a hoarde of experience regarding Mainland China living on the island, but face it.   You're wrong.   The Chinese have selective conscription (as Ex-Dragoon said) and as for college/university students, they are actively recruiting.   Just out of curiosity, is everyone who was born in Taiwan an automatic expert on all things Chinese?   As for conveying the truth, Ex-Dragoon and I have shown you what the "truth" is.   You just seemed to have too closed a mind to accept it.

T

as long as you admit to being a dick, it's super how you try to justify how being a dick is the right way to behave

 

[Ex-Dragoon]

Rice:
Opposing viewpoints are welcomed, acting like an idiot like you have in posting them is not.

Read the Forum Guidelines and try again.

Expectation of Respect between Users

All visitors, regardless of age, rank or experience are to be treated as equal unless their conduct dictates otherwise. That means the veteran servicemember and the green private are to assume that they have as much to benefit from the other as they have to offer the other until a reason to contrary is made known. Age, nor number of years excuses anyone from behaving in a manner that isn't civil and polite.

You will not post any information that is offensive, defamatory, inaccurate, abusive, vulgar, hateful, harassing, obscene, profane, sexually oriented, threatening, invasive of a person's privacy, or otherwise violative of any law

Guidelines:
http://army.ca/forums/threads/24937.0.html

How many times do we have to tell you no one said forced conscription we said selective.  :

 

[rice]

Expectation of Respect between Users

All visitors, regardless of age, rank or experience are to be treated as equal unless their conduct dictates otherwise. That means the veteran servicemember and the green private are to assume that they have as much to benefit from the other as they have to offer the other until a reason to contrary is made known. Age, nor number of years excuses anyone from behaving in a manner that isn't civil and polite.

and with reference to:

"Lastly, why am I being a dick?  Easy.  You just started posting here, and you have the unmitigated audacity to call one of the senior posters here a liar.  Gee, why would I be a dick to you?  Can't imagine..."

:

 

[dutchie]

Rice: Could you please take this bun fight to PMs please? Your wasting bandwidth and it has nothing to do with the topic.