Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[tomahawk6]

Cougar you have cited the exception. The mainland has been governed by warlords of one stripe or another and a land with that many people would be a nightmare to govern as a democracy.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Cougar you have cited the exception. The mainland has been governed by warlords of one stripe or another and a land with that many people would be a nightmare to govern as a democracy.

Rubbish!

China will be just as easy to govern, as a conservative democracy, as the European Union is, it (the EU) being a mix of liberal and emerging democracies.

China has to lick the problems of "rule of law" and "equality at law" (both tied to the corruption problem). When, rather than if, it does so it will be as democratic as Singapore - a country with better ratings for honesty and transparency in government than either Canada or the USA.

 

[tomahawk6]

What is that old line ? The mountains are high and the Emperor is far away. I think that sums up the Chinese penchant for warlords.

 

[Kirkhill]

Tomahawk6, I think it might also be applicable to Richard Daley, Tip O'Neil, Tammany Hall and Jean Chretien - not to mention Clintonistas and Obamaniacs.  Faction is the essence of politics, democratic or otherwise.  One of your chaps penned a line to the effect that a people are entitled to choose the form of government which they wish to live under.  It seems to me that it follows from that that if people want an autocrat for life then they are entitled to have one.  Of course you were also careful to make sure that you kept in hand the tools necessary to remove an autocrat who had overstayed his or her welcome - the Second Amendment.

 

[tomahawk6]

China is a very old culture and society,much older than the US. One was ruled by an Emperor or other autocrat and yet from its inception as a country the US has enjoyed a democratic form of government. Mao realized that power comes from a rifle barrel.The CCP could not have survived without the support of the military. It is by looking at Chinese history that I dont see much hope for a democracy to take hold.The best one could hope for is a continuing liberalization of China,however there are strains within China that can only be contained through the use of force. I dont see similar strains in the western democracies.

 

[Edward Campbell]

China is a very old culture and society,much older than the US. One was ruled by an Emperor or other autocrat and yet from its inception as a country the US has enjoyed a democratic form of government. Mao realized that power comes from a rifle barrel.The CCP could not have survived without the support of the military. It is by looking at Chinese history that I dont see much hope for a democracy to take hold.The best one could hope for is a continuing liberalization of China,however there are strains within China that can only be contained through the use of force. I dont see similar strains in the western democracies.

It appears, to me,that you're suggesting that states cannot evolve and that they cannot learn from history. On that basis, since most of continental Europe, including, for a period, the traditionally liberal Scandinavians, were ruled by autocrats until the early 19th century – warlords might be a better word to use until 1650 – they could not have evolved into democracies. Indeed, during the Thirty Years War it must have appeared, to an unbiased outside observer, that continental Europe was beyond hope.

The Chinese learned communism easily enough – by 1960 they were ‘better’ communists than their Russian teachers: they had a more egalitarian society with huge, world beating, improvements in education, health and food distribution. They relearned capitalism easily enough, too.  By 2005 they had become a full blown capitalist society – more so than some Western nanny states. They made that transition at double quick speed.

Why can they not learn integrity in government? Other Chinese people, with very similar socio-economic values, in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, have managed Why can they not rid themselves of corruption? Singapore did; as I have mentioned it is generally regarded as being much less corrupt than Canada or the USA. We don’t need to expect China to be as ‘honest’ and Singapore (ranked 4th in the world) but maybe they can approach the USA (ranked 20th) or even our NATO ally Turkey (ranked 64th). China is, after all, currently ranked 72nd - the ‘worst’ country in the world is Somalia at 179 and America’s pupil, Iraq, is 178th.

I repeat, T6: Rubbish. No one here, I hope, is defending the PRC or the CCP, but it is muddle-headed to try to demonize it – I think you are demonstrating the eternal triumph of hope over experience.

 

[tomahawk6]

Actually Edward I havent demonized China I have just observed their history and concluded that for the immediate future communism is their choice of government.Democracy would be the hope perhaps,but a faint one and not without an upheaval that would wash away the communist system.If that day occurs it will be spawned in rural China.The present system is totalitarian in nature with the sole purpose of keeping the CCP in power.

China's present economic success is the result of a liberalization of communist economic policy. Hong Kong is certainly the model for mainland China's economic revitalization or modernization if you will. I think they did this out of necessity both to pacify their people's desire for modern goods and the need to modernize their armed forces.To understand modern China you must remember Mao's influence on the Party particularly power comes from the barrel of the gun.Political power and military power go hand in glove not only for China but also for the major countries in the world.I think economic power is as integral to the strength of a nation as is political and military strength.Notice I did not once use the word rubbish with regard to your comments Edward.

 

[tomahawk6]

Food for thought.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSPEK28373420071015?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

By Chris Buckley and Ben Blanchard

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's Communist Party must stay firmly in charge as the nation embraces economic and social change, President Hu Jintao said on Monday in an agenda-setting speech vowing tightly controlled political reforms.

In a "state of the nation" report to the 17th Party Congress, Hu said that the country he has led for five years would pursue an increasingly open economy but also had to surmount social fissures and an environment battered by breakneck growth.

"Our economic growth is realized at an excessively high cost of resources and the environment," he said, drawing dutiful applause from carefully chosen delegates.

But Hu said the country's future was promising -- and even some political loosening was possible -- as long as the Communist Party maintained its long-unchallenged domination.

"China is going through a wide-ranging and deep-going transformation. This brings us unprecedented opportunities as well as unprecedented challenges," Hu told over 2,200 delegates -- one of them his predecessor Jiang Zemin, who appeared to doze through stretches of Hu's recital of slogans and goals.

"We must uphold the Party's role as the core of leadership in directing the overall situation and coordinating the efforts of all quarters," Hu said in the speech lasting more than two hours.

The five-yearly Congress is a chance for Hu to spell out his agenda for the next half of his presidency, entrench his doctrine of a "harmonious society" free of discontent, and promote officials who will enforce his policies and probably emerge as top leaders five years hence.

But the tight security, with rings of police stopping ordinary citizens getting anywhere near the carefully vetted delegates, underscored how wary Hu and his colleagues are of any challenge to their one-party rule.

Go to the link to view pages 2 and 3 of this article.

 

[Flip]

I have always regarded post Mao communism in China as new dynasty.
Different warloards - fundamentally the same very old system.

I don't think the Chinese learned communism as "easily" as Edward suggests.
I think there is a tendency for China to pragmatically accept new rules as dynasties change.

What's new and exciting is the inevitable growth of the middle class and liberal
(western) deas.  This will bring the state into some conflict with the new trends and forces within China. So what happens? eveyone gets fat and happy?
Actually , I hope so.

In what appears to be a state vs. people conflict (to my little western mind) there seems to be a flow for the people.  Once the people develop a new set of social rules, and there seems to some evidence that this occuring, the state no longer makes the rules.

If the state controls your daily rice - they are in charge.
Once you have Ipods, Art, Cars, Punk Music, Booze, and maybe a little porn, some free expression is sure to follow.  Once the kids with weird hair growup and join the party, the party changes.  Maybe the meaning of the word "party " changes too.  ;D

 

[a_majoor]

China is maintaining an age old system of governance and civilization (i.e. the rules and assumptions that underly the way people relate to each other and the State). The forms may have changed, but the underlying rationals have not. Edward has pegged this perfectly in many posts, and most people seem to understand that modern China has recreated their Imperial system. The counterpoint that the Chinese fear is a breakdown of the Imperial structure and a reversion to "warring states", which last happened in the first half of the 20th century, as the old Empire collapsed and China was engulfed in civil war.

Having a hostile, unfriendly or even indifferent  "Middle Kingdom" competing with the West for influence and access to resources may be one thing, but having a number of nuclear armed warlords vying for power within and around China may be something even worse.



For those of you who are interested in a "China Aggregater", this one highlights the "anti" side. I have posted one article which is very disappointing to me as a Canadian, although the record of our State bureaucracies should not make this a surprising development.

http://china-e-lobby.blogspot.com/2008/04/news-of-weekend-april-12-14.html

China e-Lobby

Dedicated to exposing the abuses of human rights, threats to the security of the free world, and attacks on general decency committed by Communist China, and to influencing policy in the free world to ensure these egregious acts do not go unopposed.

Monday, April 14, 2008
News of the Weekend (April 12-14)

Canadian Int'l Olympic Committee tells athletes with consciences to "stay at home": In a breathtaking display of arrogance, Richard Pound - the senior Canadian on the IOC - had this to say about Olympians who do not wish to be gagged, "The moral dilemma, you solve it before you get on the plane. If it is so tough for you that you can't bear not to say anything, stay at home" (Epoch Times).

 

[tingbudong]

Flip wrote:

Once you have Ipods, Art, Cars, Punk Music, Booze, and maybe a little porn, some free expression is sure to follow.  Once the kids with weird hair growup and join the party, the party changes.  Maybe the meaning of the word "party " changes too.

Unfortunately, using the current situation as evidence, the youth, the educated and current/future middle class of China are becoming increasingly (possibly too weak of a word?) nationalistic and anti-western. 

 

[CougarKing]

Flip wrote:
Unfortunately, using the current situation as evidence, the youth, the educated and current/future middle class of China are becoming increasingly (possibly too weak of a word?) nationalistic and anti-western. 

tingbudong,

Hao jiu bu jian le!/好久见了! Ni hai zai da lu huo zhe hui lai Jia na da?/ 你还在大陆或著回来加拿大?(Long time no see! Are you still on the mainland or have you gone back to Canada? hehehe.  ;D

quote by Tomahawk6:

If the Generals get tired of waiting they will have to pick their invasion to coincide with a "friendly" administration in Washington. That day might not be far off if Obama gets into the White House.

IIRC, as I stated earlier in this thread or in an earlier thread, that it was after all a US Democrat as President- Bill Clinton-who got the mainland to back off from taunting Taiwan voters during its 1996 Presidential elections then and from lobbing more missiles over Taiwan, by sending two USN carriers to the Taiwan Strait during the 1996 Taiwan Missile Crisis.

And it was another Democrat- Jimmy Carter- under which the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which allows the US government to aid Taiwan in the event of a PRC invasion, came into being.

Regardless of who is in the White House, both parties obviously realize the possible threat that comes from mainland China to stability in the region, even if the CCP itself is obsessed with stability.

 

[CougarKing]

Not surprising at all.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080415/wl_asia_afp/uschinaclimatewarming;_ylt=AkUPQCKqsFHRl2n77M7gU1NvaA8F

China surpasses US as top carbon polluter: study
1 hour, 41 minutes ago

China has already surpassed the United States as the world's largest carbon polluter, the authors of a California study said Tuesday.

"Our best forecast has Chinas CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions correctly surpassing the United States in 2006 rather than 2020 as previously anticipated," said the study by researchers at the University of California.

The report, written by economic professors Maximilian Aufhammer of UC Berkeley and Richard Carson of UC San Diego, is to be published next month in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.

Researchers compiled information about the use of fossil fuels in various Chinese provinces and forecast an 11 percent annual growth of carbon emissions from 2004 to 2010.

Previous estimates had set the growth rate at 2.5 to five percent.

The spike in air pollution by China has largely cancelled out efforts by other countries' attempts to reduce greenhouse greenhouse gas emmissions in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, the authors said.

 

[CougarKing]

China is now telling India to get rid of the Dalai Lama "or else". Talk about PRC outright hypocrisy when it comes to their belief in not meddling in another country's domestic affairs or who they choose to harbor; perhaps New Delhi should switch recognition of the "One China" from Beijing to Taipei just to send them a message. :

http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?id=14650753

'Dump the Dalai Lama, or else…'

“India cannot keep China and the Dalai Lama simultaneously,” says a April 7 commentary carried by China’s official news agency, Xinhua.
The brief commentary went on to say that the Indian government was under pressure from various social and political groups on the Tibetan issue, and it would find it difficult to play host to the Tibetan government in-exile while maintaining good relations with China.

The gravity and veiled threat embedded in this commentary can only be ignored at India’s peril. The Chinese are masters in indirect and couched messages. The opposite party is expected to understand the message and respond accordingly. If the response is not to China’s satisfaction, then it will exercise its options.

The options are never clearly spelt out to keep the opponent guessing, nor is the exact timing of actions indicated clearly. The matter is noted, and options exercised at a time of China’s convenience. Surprise is a crucial element of Master Sun Tzu’s strategy.

---

Xinhua’s news reports follow the guidelines laid down by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the government. But such commentaries come from the Party Central Committee and the Political Bureau level -- the highest authority. The commentary was in Chinese, suggesting that officials, party cadres and people were being assured that improvement in India-China relations were not at the cost of the pride of the Chinese nation. One reads in this a dangerous trend – raising Chinese nationalism against India.

The Chinese leadership must realise, and they are highly experienced in this, that “national pride” is very different from “nationalism”. The term nationalism can quickly slip into Adolf Hitler’s “Aryan Superiority” or Benito Mussolini’s “Fascism”.

The Chinese message to India is quite clear. Dump the Dalai Lama, or else. The “or else” is not a difficult riddle to solve. They are confident they have many instruments squeeze India – the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), India’s APEC membership, sparking problems on the borers, and others.

---

The leadership in Beijing is under rising international pressure to address the Tibetan issue and the Tibetan cause, and talk to the Dalai Lama to resolve it peacefully. No one is asking for independence of Tibet, especially the Dalai Lama. The Tibetan spiritual head has been steadfastly supporting the Beijing Olympics, and is emphatic in every way that he wants “genuine autonomy” for Tibet. He is also willing to negotiate on the aspects of autonomy. The Dalai Lama’s bottom line is to keep the Tibetan religion, culture and civilisation alive. And the lineage of the Dalai Lama is the life blood of the Tibetan Lamaist culture, religion and civilisation. A civilisation grows on the purity of certain beliefs, which get ingrained in its genes.
---

Chinese policies in Tibet suggest it wants to destroy all these. According to Chinese law, the Dalai Lamas have to be recognised by the Chinese Government. They have derecognised the 11th Panchen Lama recognised by the Dalai Lama, and put up their own 11th Panchen Lama, who is not recognised by the Tibetans.

Human rights is a multi-dimensional concept. No country has the right to impose its own understanding of human rights on another country. Since China practices communism at the initial stage of socialism, it has every right to protect it if the majority subscribes to this concept. Then, human rights also have a universal concept. An age old civilisation cannot be crushed for their beliefs and culture. This becomes an international issue of humanity, and cannot be ignored by the people of the world.

Unfortunately, China is yet to understand the democratic world. It is depending on democratic governments to fall in line, with the conviction that people do not matter. US President George W Bush, and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown appear to have proved China’s thesis. After all, it is the lure of the Chinese market, especially at the time of a global economic meltdown. But there is something called people’s power, as the French have demonstrated. Democracy moves slowly, but eventually it wins.

---

China claims the Olympics is a non-political sporting event. But the Olympics has hardly been a purely sporting event in its modern history. China’s Beijing Olympics is designed to be a major international political statement. The design of the Olympic torch is a statement of President and CCP General Secretary General Hu Jintao’s political thought: “harmonious development”. This theory is much more than neutral harmony of people of China and the world. It is a statement of “harmony” that can be achieved only under what the CCP ordains.

After an initially politically correct position asking China to resolve the Tibetan issue peacefully and through dialogue with the Dalai Lama, India seems to have gone on the back-foot. While stating the Dalai Lama is a spiritual leader and an honoured guest, he has been advised not to respond to the most vitriolic and abusive attacks heaped on him by Chinese officials. The words and phrases used by the Chinese officials against the Dalai Lama are, at best, ghetto language of dehumanised communities.

The language used in the Chinese attacks on the Dalai Lama are shocking, especially coming from the leaders of a race which claims four thousand years of culture. The Beijing Olympics is choreographed to showcase their culture, civilisation and power to the world. All have been waiting to see this awesome spectacle. But the abuses hurled at the Dalai Lama has irreversibly tainted all that. The question being asked is: Which is the real culture of China?

The Tibetan refugees in India also have their responsibilities. They are free to protest peacefully, and this will be noted all over the world. But physically assaulting the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi, or preparing to forcefully disrupt the Olympics torch run, is unfortunate. The Indian government cannot be embarrassed in this manner. India is bound to protect foreign envoys and their representatives under the Geneva Convention.

On the other hand, how far back can the Indian government bend, and why, to accommodate the Chinese diplomatic and political aggression? The more India does so, the more the Chinese will demand. The BJP-led NDA government suffered this humiliation quite willingly during Prime Minister Vajpayee’s visit to China in June 2003. India got nothing in exchange. The BJP never explained their action, or inaction.

Strangely, India is behaving like a battered boxer in a corner of the ring, eyes closed and hands over his head, hoping the raining blows would stop. This behavioural pattern has been common to both the NDA and the UPA, the BJP and the Congress, when in power.

Encouraged by Indian timidity and willingness to accommodate China, Beijing attempted to place their special forces’ personnel to provide security to the Olympics torch relay in New Delhi on April 17. It was a relief that the Indian government declined. But the mere fact the China attempted to impose on India’s sovereignty is a matter of great affront to the Indian people.

It will be a matter of historical regret if the International Olympics Committee (IOC) decides to cancel future Olympics torch relays. The problems that have visited upon the Beijing Olympics were created by China. Why should future hosts of the Olympic games be made to suffer?

Finally, in the context of the Xinhua commentary, the Indian government, its political leaders and people must not fail to see the ultimatum conveyed by the Chinese. If India fails to respond with its sovereign independence, it may have to pay a heavy price in the future.

The Great Wall climbers in India must decide which is more important – ideological compatibility, or sovereignty and territorial integrity of India.


Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests. In this exclusive column for Sify.com, he argues that 'the more India bends to accommodate Chinese diplomatic and political aggression, the more the Chinese will demand.'

 

[tingbudong]

tingbudong,

Hao jiu bu jian le!/好久见了! Ni hai zai da lu huo zhe hui lai Jia na da?/ 你还在大陆或著回来加拿大?(Long time no see! Are you still on the mainland or have you gone back to Canada? hehehe.  Grin

哈哈， 我还在中国但是我马上回来加拿大。 我申请到了王后大学。我要读城市规划。

Heh heh...yeah, I'm still in China, but heading back to Canada pretty quick.  I was accepted to Queen's urban planning master program for this september!

Time for change...especially now.  The past month and half has been very englightening and most likely the most educational time of my entire stay here on the Mainland, but if I don't leave soon I'm going to end up hating the place.

Nationlism IS on the rise, and it is of the old-school WW1 style.  Make no mistake, the much vaunted middle-class and youth of China are the leading edge of this anger and they are growing mistrustful of the West each passing minute.  I think it is extremely important to recognize that these people represent the future leadership of China.  Look at the nastiness that is going on down at Duke University.

http://iht.com/articles/2008/04/17/america/17student.php?page=2

DURHAM, North Carolina: On the day the Olympic torch was carried through San Francisco last week, Grace Wang, a Chinese freshman at Duke University, came out of her dining hall to find a handful of students gathered for a pro-Tibet vigil facing off with a much larger pro-China counterdemonstration.

Wang, who had friends on both sides, tried to get the two groups to talk, participants said. She began traversing what she called "the middle ground," asking the groups' leaders to meet and making bargains. She said she agreed to write "Free Tibet, Save Tibet" on one student's back only if he would speak with pro-Chinese demonstrators. She pleaded and lectured. In one photo, she is walking toward a phalanx of Chinese flags and banners, her arms overhead in a "timeout" T.

But the would-be referee went unheeded. With Chinese anger stoked by disruption of the Olympic torch relays and criticism of government policy toward Tibet, what was once a favorite campus cause — the Dalai Lama's people — had become a dangerous flash point, as Wang was soon to find out.

The next day, a photo appeared on an Internet forum for Chinese students with a photo of Wang and the words "traitor to your country" emblazoned in Chinese across her forehead. Wang's Chinese name, identification number and contact information were posted, along with directions to her parents' apartment in Qingdao, a Chinese port city.

Salted with ugly rumors and manipulated photographs, the story of the young woman who was said to have taken sides with Tibet spread through China's most popular Web sites, at each stop generating hundreds or thousands of raging, derogatory posts, some even suggesting that Wang — a slight, rosy 20-year-old — be burned in oil. Someone posted a photo of what was purported to be a bucket of feces emptied on the doorstep of her parents, who had gone into hiding.

"If you return to China, your dead corpse will be chopped into 10,000 pieces," one person wrote in an e-mail message to Wang. "Call the human flesh search engines!" another threatened, using an Internet phrase that implies physical, as opposed to virtual, action.

These are savy, smart and motivated indivduals and it is very disturbing to hear about what they are doing.

I don't speak much about the current situation with my local friends...it is just too easy to see where the conversation would end up. For an example...I fired up my MSN yesterday morning and 60% of my local friends had place (L) China next to their screen name.

I would argue that Chinese nationalism NEEDS to be a seriously considered factor in dealing with this country. 

 

[Kirkhill]

Tingbudong and Cougardaddy, 

Is this Nationalism a Han phenomenon or is it a Pan-Chinese phenomenon?   Does it carry the minorities with it?  Is there a territorial differentiation: Interior vs Coast, Urban vs Rural etc?

 

[tomahawk6]

Nationalism would be strongest among the Han Chinese and the "occupied" people probably lack that strong identification. Certainly there isnt pro-Chinese nationalism in Tibet. The biggest divide among the ethnic Chinese has to be between rural vs city dwellers. As the cities prosper there isnt any trickle down to the peasants in the countryside. As the cities grow there is a growing water shortage which will also increase the strains. If the government can resolve both issues they can remove the seeds of future instability.

 

[Flip]

T6,

If what Tingbudong says is true ( I assume it is ) the short answer to internal strife could be to blame the west for all of their problems.  It doesn't have to be true to be effective.

If "Tibet" is blamed on the US then I would guess people will rally around the government rather than try to change it.

 

[tomahawk6]

If people start going hungry it will be the government that gets blamed.But as we have seen in N Korea it is possible to avoid food riots with enough troops and police.China is a much larger country and it might not be possible to keep the lid on. I dont see a control issue only if the government isnt able to provide water or food.

 

[CougarKing]

Tingbudong and Cougardaddy, 

Is this Nationalism a Han phenomenon or is it a Pan-Chinese phenomenon?   Does it carry the minorities with it?  Is there a territorial differentiation: Interior vs Coast, Urban vs Rural etc?

Mr. Kirkhill,

From what I have observed, it is more of a Han Chinese phenomenon, although the PRC has styled its education to the point in Tibet, Xinjiang and other areas with predominantly minority populations to make these native peoples think they are just as Chinese as their ethnically Han neighbours.

That is why when a Han from say, Henan, would meet someone from Tibet, they would address each other as "brother" (gege/didi/lao di) or "sister" (meimei/jiejie) even if they may be complete strangers. However, from what I observed, it may be more of just an expression in the same way some people here would say "buddy" or "pal" to some random guy who did something polite for you or did a business transaction with you.

These are savy, smart and motivated indivduals and it is very disturbing to hear about what they are doing.

I don't speak much about the current situation with my local friends...it is just too easy to see where the conversation would end up. For an example...I fired up my MSN yesterday morning and 60% of my local friends had place (L) China next to their screen name.

I would argue that Chinese nationalism NEEDS to be a seriously considered factor in dealing with this country

Yes. I agree, tingbudong. (Seriously, you should change your name to tingDEdong sometime, hehehe.)
:rofl:

Most of the Chinese people I know personally are from Taiwan, although I still keep in contact with a couple of people I knew from the time I studied on the mainland.

However, I have encountered these ultra-nationalist PRC types online and it can be quite annoying to deal with them on their own forums, especially if they respond to your pointing out the flaws in their arguments about Tibet with the usual NI GAI SI LE or GWUNNN KAI! response.  : Oh well.