CIA PUBLICATIONS - MAPPING THE FUTURE

[54/102 CEF]

How will the future unfold?

Even the CIA doesn't know but they have lots of very interesting ideas for you future field marshals!

See here http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html#contents

Check this link for the Changing Nature of Warfare http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_2004_05_25_intro.html - from a May 2004 conference

Get readin boys! and girls of course

 

[tomahawk6]

CIA doesnt have a great track record for prognostication with too much reliance on technical intelligence over human intel. Economic power is necessary for a nation to create military power. Perhaps in 30-40 years India and the PRC may become something more than regional powers, but right now they will not pose a challenge to US supremacy. Russia without a vibrant economy cannot afford the world class military equipment that her designers create.

Europe and Canada have seen a steady erosion in their capability to produce advanced weapons systems.
If it were not the Euro consortium in aerospace the countries of Europe [Sweden is the lone exception] would be unable to produce aircraft/missiles. Europe increasingly is unable to afford advanced weapons systems AND maintaining a meaningful force projection capability. In 30-40 years the emerging powers will surpass Europe's ability to defend itself. The US alone maintains a vibrant defense industry through purchases to equip the US military. The US position in the world will only grow stronger.

Let's take a worst case scenario - collapse of the US economy because we can no longer support the national debt. In that unlikely case we will see a worldwide depression which would be more devestating than the one our parents/grandparents experienced in the 30's. The only event that ended that one was a world war. Rosy prospect.

 

[54/102 CEF]

I think most of the CIA stuff can only look 2 minutes into the future.

While they can report its always up to the politician to decide if its real or not.

Real means politically real.

USA is going up not down. 

 

[raymao]

Let's take a worst case scenario - collapse of the US economy because we can no longer support the national debt. In that unlikely case we will see a worldwide depression which would be more devestating than the one our parents/grandparents experienced in the 30's. The only event that ended that one was a world war. Rosy prospect.

At this present time I agree with you. But... there is a valuable lesson governments learned after the great depression. Governments can control their economies to a much greater degree than ever before. During WWII economists recognized the effects of injecting cash into the public system. The US used that experience to prevent another depression during the great market crash during Reagan's term, Black Monday - Oct/87. This strategy the American used to prevent a depression has not been lost on most of the existing governments around the world.

The other thing that we can count on, are the developing countries of the world developing at faster rates than anyone has ever witnessed before by using knowledge and technology that the developed countries have provided for them. What does that mean? Economies that may catch up and even surpass the Americans within your lifetime. Hard to believe, but going into my 4th year of business school, I've heard it over and over again, how China's economy in purchasing parity will grow beyond the US economy sooner than most want to believe. Many economists say this will happen in under 20 years, and others 30, either way that's soon enough. In regards to India, there are those that speculate India may surpass China. When that will happen I'm not as certain.

 

[tomahawk6]

With regard to the PRC there is a huge swathe of the country that is left out of the economic progress China has made - the rural population. India has the same problem. There is no trickle down of the nation's new wealth.

 

[Guy. E]

Just give China a little time. I have no doubts that china will surpass the US as a world power within 40 years. They have a strong population base, they're economy is evolving and growing rapidly.

 

[raymao]

With regard to the PRC there is a huge swathe of the country that is left out of the economic progress China has made - the rural population. India has the same problem. There is no trickle down of the nation's new wealth.

You're right about that. But even in developed countries we are noticing 'specialization' of work has lead to lower wages all around. If you own a business it is different. But we needen't worry... who knows, in future decades, sort of like the Marxist theory I think classes of prolitereans and bourgeoisies (my spelling could be off on one of those, not sure) people will eventually inhabit the globe. Those will be the strongest differences in political and economic differences in people.

 

[54/102 CEF]

In the Changing Warfare link above is a piece of Future of Special Forces - they talk in some detail about Operation Anaconda and Infantry experiences in locating dug in fighting positions