CMMA - replacing the CP140 Aurora

[suffolkowner]

Well we went from 33 Argus to 18+3 Auroras so...12 P8's it is

 

[dimsum]

I love it. A big f u to Boeing.

Geared turbofans with a gear for high and fast and a different gear for low and slow(4 on the floor shifter).

Big windows for mk1 eyeball sensors.

View attachment 76665

If we're down to the Mk 1 eyeball over an EO/IR turret, we're either very close to the target or we have bigger issues with the mission capability of that aircraft.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

You guys know this whole conversation is hypothetical, right? The proposal to sole-source purchase 8-12 P-8s has already been discussed in the media (see Ottawa Citizen articles by certain authors as a reference) and there has been talk of the announcement going around for weeks.

We're going to get 8-12 x P-8s (God I pray it's 12) to replace 18 x CP-140s. Maybe a miracle will happen and this government will find the brains/balls to increase the order to at least 18 maintain our current fleet size, but I seriously doubt it.

MAYBE the US cares enough about the fleet size delta to pressure us to take more, but again I doubt it. There are lots of other things that they are going to want us to improve in our military and they'll probably be satisfied that we announced on the P-8 and will save that political pressure for faster/more NORAD upgrades, etc.

The only other hope is that the current government is gone before Boeing shuts down the P-8 production line and the next government ups our order. Increasing an existing order would likely be politically easier than purchasing a completely new platform.

All that basically to say that we're getting P-8s. The number will be less than the number of CP-140s we have which sucks. But I honestly can't see any Canadian government buying an additional fleet of MPAs on top of the P-8s...P-6s, P-4s, Swordfish, CC-295s, Chinese-sourced balloons, or anything. Mixed fleet discussions are as real as our paper napkin discussions of deployable Army Reserve Divisions.

The original Aurora fleet was 18. 14 were kept for ASLEP/AIMP starting with Block 3 which was completed years ago.

The 3 x 140As have been laid up for a long time now.

Mixed fleet might not make military sense but that is irrelevant if it appeases Canadian industry, and our Allies at the same time.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

If we're down to the Mk 1 eyeball over an EO/IR turret, we're either very close to the target or we have bigger issues with the mission capability of that aircraft.

The reality is we need both capabilities, sometimes individually and sometimes concurrently.

And… a big bright searchlight. I keep saying it. Searchlight. Include. A. Searchlight.

 

[FSTO]

So when does Uncle Joe come to Ottawa? I'm assuming that is when the P8 purchase will be announced. In a perfect world the worker bees are already planning the conversion training for all the RCAF staff and the hangar upgrades that will also be required. The suspense is killing me!

 

[Rifleman62]

And… a big bright searchlight. I keep saying it. Searchlight. Include. A. Searchlight.

Surplus somewhere from 1940"s?

 

[dimsum]

In a perfect world the worker bees are already planning the conversion training for all the RCAF staff and the hangar upgrades that will also be required.

 

[FSTO]

I guess the PMO has to get approval from Beijing?

Yes I went there!

 

[Eye In The Sky]

So when does Uncle Joe come to Ottawa? I'm assuming that is when the P8 purchase will be announced. In a perfect world the worker bees are already planning the conversion training for all the RCAF staff and the hangar upgrades that will also be required. The suspense is killing me!

I would WAG an announcement sometime between now and Canada Day. Just a WAG of course…

No comment on “planning” stuff. No one that knows will say anything (if they are smart, IMO).

 

[dimsum]

I would WAG an announcement sometime between now and Canada Day. Just a WAG of course…

No comment on “planning” stuff. No one that knows will say anything (if they are smart, IMO).

I noticed you didn't mention Canada Day, on which year.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Surplus somewhere from 1940"s?

Take the design from the ones on the Argus, change it to mount a light on both wings, use modern technology to achieve the same lighting level (70 million candle power IIRC) and include controls to focus the light rather than just on/off. Dad said it literally “turned night into day around the aircraft” on the Argus.

Could have used that on a few SARs, counter drug ops…

https://flic.kr/p/e3STeU

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I noticed you didn't mention Canada Day, on which year.

 

[YZT580]

Well we went from 33 Argus to 18+3 Auroras so...12 P8's it is

and there were no low time hulls in that 33 either. We needed them. Certainly is a need to have more than a single a/c on patrol on either main ocean. That is a lot of water

 

[GR66]

and there were no low time hulls in that 33 either. We needed them. Certainly is a need to have more than a single a/c on patrol on either main ocean. That is a lot of water

24 would be a real credible capability and a significant contribution to our allies. As a wealthy nation surrounded on three sides by water surely we should be able to justify and afford that...but Canada.

 

[suffolkowner]

24 would be a real credible capability and a significant contribution to our allies. As a wealthy nation surrounded on three sides by water surely we should be able to justify and afford that...but Canada.

that would be a shock. hard to see us getting more than we had before but then we are getting 88 F35's. I bet between 12-18 is our range

 

[PuckChaser]

24 would be a real credible capability and a significant contribution to our allies. As a wealthy nation surrounded on three sides by water surely we should be able to justify and afford that...but Canada.

I didn't know they were RPAs. We can't crew the numbers we have now.

 

[dimsum]

I didn't know they were RPAs. We can't crew the numbers we have now.

I don't know if even in the days of the Argus and 10+ crews, that the sqns could crew every aircraft at once.

I don't even think that's supposed to happen, given that aircraft would be in various states of maintenance and presumably some crews would be on leave.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I didn't know they were RPAs. We can't crew the numbers we have now.

Actually, we have people who are sitting around more than flying at this point in time. No one is breaking any flight hour records. I didn’t break 200 in 2022…my busiest year was a little short of 800hrs.

 

[GR66]

I don't know if even in the days of the Argus and 10+ crews, that the sqns could crew every aircraft at once.

I don't even think that's supposed to happen, given that aircraft would be in various states of maintenance and presumably some crews would be on leave.

Just like tanks and other vehicles you need more aircraft than you will be using during peacetime operations. Not only varied availability due to maintenance, etc. but there will be losses in a conflict. We should always buy more than we need of everything and work on our training system so that we can ramp up training beyond our peacetime needs when required. We should also work on getting trained pilots into the Reserves and keeping former Reg Force personnel in the Reserves after they leave so that we can surge capabilities with our spare equipment when required.

There's no way we can get more modern military equipment in a rush during a conflict. We need to recognize that and plan our equipment purchases accordingly.

 

[Eye In The Sky]

I don't know if even in the days of the Argus and 10+ crews, that the sqns could crew every aircraft at once.

I don't even think that's supposed to happen, given that aircraft would be in various states of maintenance and presumably some crews would be on leave.

In the late 70s, I think Dad said there were usually 6 crews per Sqn and Ops would be staffed by flyers who needed a break from crew life for a bit. Plus there could be an actual HQ crew.

They had bigger crews then, too.

But, like you mentioned there would never be 33-31 aircraft on the ramp. There’s always periodics, TLIR…