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Collapse of the Assad Regime

A French politician (can't remember his name and his book is deep in my used book boxes) wrote a book titled "How Democracies Perish". Someone should write another one titled "How Dictatorships Disintegrate".
 
Russia is moving more assets (back) to Syria as some of its key facilities come under threat from the opposition advances:

defence-blog.com

Russia to send extra military aid to Syria

Russia has promised to send additional military aid to Syria within the next 72 hours, as the Assad regime struggles to respond to a swift offensive launched by insurgent forces. The pledge comes amid a rapidly changing battlefield, with rebels making significant gains in recent days, according...
defence-blog.com defence-blog.com

defence-blog.com

Syrian rebel Forces close in on Russia’s Khmeimim air base

Turkish-backed rebel and opposition forces, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are making significant territorial gains in northwestern Syria, advancing deeper into the Latakia Governorate. The advance, which began as part of a broader offensive this week, has brought rebel units to within...
defence-blog.com defence-blog.com

defence-blog.com

Russian warships leave Syria’s key naval base

Russia appears to be withdrawing key naval assets from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria. On December 2, 2024, the Russian auxiliary ship Yelnya departed from Tartus, with reports indicating that two frigates, another auxiliary vessel, and a submarine have also left the port. The...
defence-blog.com defence-blog.com
 
GR66 said:
Russia is moving more assets (back) to Syria as some of its key facilities come under threat from the opposition advances:
Click to expand...

Like their deployed CW and BW stores?

Edit to add: Is this reminding anyone of Russia’s thunder run down into the Serbian mountains as NATO was advancing on Sarajevo? 🤔
 
GR66 said:
Russia is promising to move more assets (back) to Syria as some of its key facilities come under threat from the opposition advances:
Click to expand...
FIFY. Cupboard is a tad bare.

Syrian WMD attack in 3, 2, 1…
 
www.navalnews.com

First Signs Russia Is Evacuating Navy Ships From Syria - Naval News

The Russian Navy's base at Tartus in Syria is crucial to its support of the Assad regime, and its ambitions on the world stage. The dramatic shift in the front lines in Syria now puts the base at risk. There are indications that Russia may be evacuating its naval vessels.
www.navalnews.com www.navalnews.com

naval base available for rent?
 
Hama has fallen after Assad’s forces pulled out. I have to think they were buying time to build defences north of Homs, which in turn protects access to the Mediterranean coast and the port cities. All eyes on the approaches to Homs now.

www.aljazeera.com

Syrian opposition forces capture Hama in latest blow to al-Assad

Main opposition armed group says rebels have full control of Hama, the fourth-largest city in the country.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
 
An interesting perspective...


The toppling of Assad's regime in Syria may be bad news for Israel - analysis​

A weakened Syrian regime under Assad, therefore, is in Israel’s interest. But here’s the rub: Israel would like to see Assad weakened, but not overmuch, and not toppled.​


The sudden rekindling of the Syrian civil war has many Israelis looking to the northeast and asking the following question: “The enemy of my enemy is fighting my enemy, so whom am I for?”

Or, in other words, who would Israel least like to see parked on its border with Syria: Iranian-backed Shia jihadist extremists or Turkish-backed Sunni jihadists?

Since the answer is neither, Israel’s approach to the developments in Syria will be to stay out of the melee as long as its security interests are not directly or immediately threatened. As Yitzhak Shamir was once quoted as having said during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s – when two of the Jewish state’s fiercest enemies were weakening each other – Israel can “wish both sides success.”

www.jpost.com

The toppling of Assad's regime in Syria may be bad news for Israel - analysis

A weakened Syrian regime under Assad, therefore, is in Israel’s interest. But here’s the rub: Israel would like to see Assad weakened, but not overmuch, and not toppled.
www.jpost.com www.jpost.com
 
I didn’t realize the rebel strength in the south. Damascus is partially encircled to the south and east and the main highway may be threatened soon if not already.

The writing seems to be on the wall… And some backs are to it.
 
bsky.app

NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com)

⚡️ Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family have fled to Abu Dhabi, according to Turkish outlets citing UAE sources. CNN sources confirm Assad is no longer in Damascus. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/syria-civil-war-12-07-2024-intl/index.html
bsky.app bsky.app
 
brihard said:
I didn’t realize the rebel strength in the south. Damascus is partially encircled to the south and east and the main highway may be threatened soon if not already.

The writing seems to be on the wall… And some backs are to it.
Click to expand...
Some rumors that Russia and Iran have potentially made a deal with HTS. Despite the usual internet PSYOP, there isn't a whole lot of action from either party. Even the Shia Militia piece turned out to be a big nothing burger.

Perhaps, Russia gets to keep its port and its airbase and HTS has blessed this in exchange for tacit approval to do what they are doing.
 
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