Damnit! Air Canada layoffs, bad for me but good for the CF

[jzaidi1]

Damn,

With all the airline carriers laying off (including Air Canada today) it means the competition for Pilot MOC in the CF will be getting tighter.  All those pilots need a place to work and the CF is the best spot IMHO.  Good economy = less competition for Pilot MOC, Bad economy = more competition for Pilot MOC.

J
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http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/444540

Air Canada to cut 2,000 jobs
TheStar.com - Business - Air Canada to cut 2,000 jobs

CANADIAN PRESS FILE PHOTO
Air Canada planes sit on the tarmac at Pearson International Airport. June 17, 2008
THE CANADIAN PRESS

MONTREAL – Air Canada (TSX: AC.B) will cut up to 2,000 jobs at the end of this year as it sharply reduces capacity to deal with the rising cost of fuel.

The airline says it needs to fly fewer trips as oil prices keep rising to record levels.

A seven per cent reduction in capacity in its fall and winter schedule will mean it will need less staff to operate the airline.

Air Canada president Montie Brewer calls the job losses ``painful," but says the airline needs to reduce flying time to stay profitable.

Canada's biggest airline says every one-dollar increase in the price of oil per barrel adds about $26 million to its annual fuel cost.

Among the routes to be cut from Air Canada's system are a non-stop flight from Toronto to Rome, which will remain in the summer months, and a non-stop flight from Vancouver to Osaka, Japan.

 

[TrexLink]

Air Canada president Montie Brewer calls the job losses ``painful," but says the airline needs to reduce flying time to stay profitable.

Canada's biggest airline says every one-dollar increase in the price of oil per barrel adds about $26 million to its annual fuel cost.

Well, according to The Toronto Star (and we all know how reliable they are), Air Canada flies 34 million passengers a year (that was in 2007).  So, every increase of a dollar per barrel translates to a 76¢ increase in the cost of flying the average passenger. Given that oil has gone up about $75/bbl since this time last year, that would translate to an average increase to the cost of flying the average passenger of about $57.

Last month alone, The People's Airline added fuel surcharges: $40 return for flights of less than 480 kilometres, $80 return on flights between 480 - 1,600 kilometres and $120 for longer flights.

It's not that simple, of course. Things like fewer people flying due to high prices must be considered and it does not consider what an 'average' passenger or 'average' flight looks like.  But a quick look at it does pose some questions.

 

[hauger]

Meh.  Sure it's "good" news for the CF, it reduces the release incentive if civilian jobs are getting thin and job security is a bit more shaky, it might increase the applicant pool somewhat, and it'll probably bring in a few re-rolls.  I'd say it's a lot more "good" news for the tail end career retention problem than new applicant end of the spectrum.  By that, I mean it'll somewhat help keep the 15 - 20 year guys (with their loads of experience) in place, while bringing back a few guys that jumped ship over the last few years.

As for the new applicant, a bad civilian market makes the CF look better, but really, there's no shortage of applicants in good times or bad, and as I understand it the benchmark for merit listing is pretty high as it is.  The thing to keep in mind is while having 3,000 hours in the right seat of a metro might give certain skills, that guy still has to do ACS and have his total application (degree, volunteer work, CFAT, etc...) measured against you.

 

[lone bugler]

not only this but with the new option of getting approved eye surgery to join the pilot MOC. Alot of new people will certainly take it into consideration, this plus the airline layoff = best pilots in the CF cause now it's pick and choose for applicants

 

[SupersonicMax]

lone bugler:  I'd say it pretty darn hard to figure out at the recruiting center if a candidate will be a good pilot or not...

Max

 

[WannaBeFlyer]

What is that aviation saying? Hold on to your seats...the music has stopped. I seem to recall this happening years ago where Pilots were coming back to the CF after being laid off.

This must hurt the morale of the 250 hr wonder. Sometimes the dream of flying for big red gets them through the day while they are flying planes covered in duct tape up north into questionable conditions for 19K a year and a 50K loan in tow.

But - that is the aviation industry. Great for a couple of years, then crappy for a couple with a long line of people looking to join in the fun. I guess that is why some want in the CF: free education, excellent training, guaranteed job (well, it might not be Pilot), job security and a pension. Where else can you find that in the aviation industry?

Have they mentioned how many Pilots will be let go?

 

[jzaidi1]

Here is my thought,

During the interview process, who would the interviewers like more.  The fellow that went straight to fly civvie aircraft in the good times and comes running to the CF during the bad OR the fellow that WANTS to be a CF Pilot from the get go regardless of market conditions.  I'd like to think I fall in the latter...I'd be giving up a lot to pursue my dream as a CF Pilot (ie. massive cut in pay, house, sports car...not to mention the seismic shift in relationship with my wife).  I'd hope during the interview process I'd be able to convey what I am willing to do in order to "earn a spot" in the CF as Pilot. 

If you folks had the power to pick one person over the other who would you choose?  The experienced flyer who is only at the CF doorstep because he/she needs a job and can't find civvie gigs OR the fellow who is willing to risk it all for a chance to prove him/herself (and has the potential).  I'd hope for the latter only because I am in that spot right now.

Thanks,
J

 

[hauger]

Fireball, you might get some points for perceived devotion/passion (so long as it doesn't come off as an unhealthy level of obsession).

I've never sat on a selection board, I've no idea what they actually see as far as a file goes, but I'd wager it's a points ranking based on qualifications (think; 4 points for interview, 4 points for an undergrad degree, 1 point for ACS results, etc....).  So, with anything, the more the applicant brings to the table, the better the chances of the application succeeding.

The Big Red guy's interview is only part of the process.  If he meets all the quals and gets offered the job, he still has to go to PFT & BFT & Phase 3 before getting wings, then he has to put in the 7 years after.  If he jumps at the end of 7 years, well, that's his choice.  Unless the Big Red guy comes in with a terrible attitude, I don't think the average interviewer will mark him down because he thinks this guy might not be 100% absolutely to the detriment of everything else into military aviation since he flew civilian for awhile first.

None of this is to discourage though.....I have no idea how much weight the guy's hours and ATPL count for at the selection board, but the CF continues to sell the trade as needing no experience.  I'm sure theres a PFE category and the guy might get max points for that, but if those points are only worth 10% of the selection score and you beat him out on the other 90%, you're chances are better than his.

That's my $0.02, pretty much what it's worth.

 

[jzaidi1]

I figured that is how the selection board makes it's choices...they see a pile of paperwork, rank them by points and select based on # of spots available.

J

 

[TrexLink]

I remember talking to an ICP in Trenton, who said that those with private pilot licences sometimes had a hard time of it in flight training because the Air Force wants its pilots to fly in its own way and they had often picked up bad habits.  I suspect that that might apply to some extent even to experienced commercial pilots. 

Soldier, there's the right way, the wrong way and the Army way!

 

[Strike]

fireball,

You forgot another option: Former CF pilots flying for Big Red who decide to come back, or were flying reserves while still flying AC and going for a component transfer (though this last scenario isn't quite as common).

 

[jzaidi1]

Thanks Strike,

I realize it's going to get tougher to get in during the short term.  It's in the CFs best interest to welcome back ex-CF Pilots or CT those in the Reserves first.  It looks like the CF needs 300 pilots (according to one current CF Pilot) but can only intake so many per year - I'll try my best, regardless, and hope for the best.

J

 

[hauger]

I wouldn't sweat the re-rolls too much.  Those guys are great for the CF in that they come ready-trained (having completed BFT years ago) and well experienced.  They nicely flush out the tail end of the spectrum and provide very valuable experience at minimal cost to the CF.  What they don't do is provide stability WRT attrition rates.  I'm not sure what the re-enroll TOS are, but I seem to think it's around 5 years. 

Anyways, what I'm trying to say is these guys aren't in direct competition for your position.  You're position is to come in green and be trained to give the forces 7 years post wings (and hopefully a full 25 years of service).  The re-enroll's place on the ladder is to come in pre-trained and offer up their buckets of experience while filling existing holes that cannot be filled with untrained 2lt's.

What I'm saying is an increase in re-enrolls should have minimal effect on the chances of a new applicant.  Same reasoning results in the same conclusion WRT guys thinking of staying in due to not-so-green-grass elsewhere.

Where the competition heats up is the new applicants showing up in the recruiters office that otherwise wouldn't be there in the good times.  That increases the potential talent pool size and thus increases the competition for limited positions.

In other words, keep plugging away at polishing your application and try not to worry too much about the goings on behind the scenes.

 

[bartbandyrfc]

Fireball,

Don't worry, it's a great time to be coming in as a pilot.  If you meet the requirements you have a great chance to make it in. The recruiting and training taps are fully open.  Word from the 1 Cdn Air Div Deputy Comd Force Generation is that we will put over 100 through the pipeline this year, and even more over the following several years.  Also, we are ~290 short of our PML, but we are also short of trained folks to the tune of nearly 400.  We will be short-handed for at least 7 more years (and that is if everything goes well).

As for "competition" from AC folks who are laid-off, I wouldn't worry too much.  So far the word is that most pilot positions will be by retirements.  AC hiring will stop, but WJ is still in slow steady expansion mode.  A laid-off AC captain or first-officer would probably not join the CF unless they served with us before. They would furlough, and wait out the economic slow-down while doing something else.

Lastly, the pilot demographic profile is severely screwed up.  We need new blood.  Come on in - we need you.

BB

 

[WannaBeFlyer]

Come on in - we need you

If only it were that simple. I was told the tap was turned off for this year. Only 5 were selected under the entry plan I applied for...

 

[SupersonicMax]

Fireball,

Don't worry, it's a great time to be coming in as a pilot.  If you meet the requirements you have a great chance to make it in. The recruiting and training taps are fully open.  Word from the 1 Cdn Air Div Deputy Comd Force Generation is that we will put over 100 through the pipeline this year, and even more over the following several years.  Also, we are ~290 short of our PML, but we are also short of trained folks to the tune of nearly 400.  We will be short-handed for at least 7 more years (and that is if everything goes well).

As for "competition" from AC folks who are laid-off, I wouldn't worry too much.  So far the word is that most pilot positions will be by retirements.  AC hiring will stop, but WJ is still in slow steady expansion mode.  A laid-off AC captain or first-officer would probably not join the CF unless they served with us before. They would furlough, and wait out the economic slow-down while doing something else.

Lastly, the pilot demographic profile is severely screwed up.  We need new blood.  Come on in - we need you.

BB

:

 

[bartbandyrfc]

If only it were that simple. I was told the tap was turned off for this year. Only 5 were selected under the entry plan I applied for...

That's probably because of your desired entry plan.  Don't know the entry plan you want, but ROTP and DEO are the desired entry plans provided they are meeting targets. 

 

[jzaidi1]

Yeah,

I'm getting mixed signals all over the place here.  BartB is saying the Taps are wide open but the CFRC says they are closed - while ROTP is the best way to go I can't do it because of my financial obligations.  CEOTP is it for me...it's the only way I can get in unless I join the Air Reserves as an officer and do a compenent transfer - but I can't take the entire summer off for IAP/BOTP.  What am I to do but go to university part-time, get laser eye surgery and keep on applying until I get in.  I'm all mixed up in this crazy roller-coaster ride...like anyone I am having my good days and bad days but I have to remain optimistic and just keep plugging away.  I was definitely born a decade too early...if I were 23 (instead of 33) I'd be able to get the laser surgery and go ROTP route with no life/financial obligations holding me back.

J

 

[hauger]

I can see how the signals appear mixed.  Bart's right in that the training taps are wide open and there's a push to develop the 100-ish new wing's grads this year.  The issue though is there had been a hiring push a few years back that the training mill wasn't ready for, so there's (I think) an abundance of untrained Ocdt's and 2Lt's in the system waiting to pass through the mill.  There's no point in stacking applicants onto the pile waiting training until the mill catches up and clears the que.

That's why last year ROTP was pretty much the only way to go, it allows the trade to load up on applicants that won't hit the main training mill for the next four years.  That lets the mill clear the que (at 100-ish grads a year) while setting up a stable applicant pool available in 4 years.

Not good news for you Fireball, that I know, but that's no reason not to keep the application alive and keep polishing the resume.

 

[bartbandyrfc]

Yeah,

I'm getting mixed signals all over the place here.  BartB is saying the Taps are wide open but the CFRC says they are closed - while ROTP is the best way to go I can't do it because of my financial obligations.  CEOTP is it for me...it's the only way I can get in unless I join the Air Reserves as an officer and do a compenent transfer - but I can't take the entire summer off for IAP/BOTP.  What am I to do but go to university part-time, get laser eye surgery and keep on applying until I get in.  I'm all mixed up in this crazy roller-coaster ride...like anyone I am having my good days and bad days but I have to remain optimistic and just keep plugging away.  I was definitely born a decade too early...if I were 23 (instead of 33) I'd be able to get the laser surgery and go ROTP route with no life/financial obligations holding me back.

J

Fireball,

What I said was the taps were open for those folks who meet the entry requirements.  I said that not knowing your situation, and wrongly assuming you met entry standards.  The pilot occupation requires candidates who meet V2 vision standards as a minimum.  If you don't meet that requirement you cannot enter the CF as a pilot. Laser eye surgery may be an option (I am not sure).  Even if it is they won't even look at you until the V2 requirement is met.

CEOTP is used for certain occupations which are shorthanded, and cannot meet their recruiting targets for DEO and ROTP.  The fact of the matter is the pilot MOC is largely meeting ROTP and DEO recruiting targets ; therefore CEOTP is in large measure not needed. Hauger is also right by saying that recruiting CEOTP personnel now will exacerbate training pipeline issues.  This is obviously counterproductive, hence the limitation on CEOTP candidates. I expect CEOTP recruits will be needed more in 2009 and beyond.

I am assuming you cannot reduce your pay levels to OCdt and go the ROTP route.  If this is the case, it appears you are indeed between a rock and a hard place.  However, CEOTP would be largely the same kind of pay profile as ROTP only for a slightly shorter period. Again, don't know your situation. Perhaps telling us the full story might be a way to get some good advice from members of this forum. 

BB