Defining Foreign and Defence Policy (and hence our Military Force)

[Kat Stevens]

Yes.

 

[observor 69]

" 88 is the new fighter jet requirement,"
Is one to take this to mean 88 Super Hornets ?  :-\

 

[MilEME09]

" 88 is the new fighter jet requirement,"
Is one to take this to mean 88 Super Hornets ?  :-\

who knows, they apparently want to reduce their procurement time frame by 50% too,

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Space and cyber warfare, I get the sense that money earmarked for defense will get funneled into that instead.

 

[dimsum]

Space and cyber warfare, I get the sense that money earmarked for defense will get funneled into that instead.

As un-sexy as that is, Space and Cyber *are* part of defense.  Try conducting modern coalition operations without satellite and/or secure comms.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The key to analyzing intentions is to look at how much of projected new spending occurs within the next 2-3 years.

 

[trooper142]

The key to analyzing intentions is to look at how much of projected new spending occurs within the next 2-3 years.

http://dgpaapp.forces.gc.ca/en/canada-defence-policy/docs/canada-defence-policy-report.pdf

I think this answers that question.  Almost 2 Billion investment starting next fiscal year, approximately 1 billion the next fiscal year.

It does slow down in 2019/20 but ramps back up in 2020/21 with an almost 2.5 billion dollar investment that fiscal year.

I think this shows they are serious

 

[ballz]

I'll believe it in 10 years time and not before... it's all well and good to say we're going to increase spending by 70% over 10 years, but that is a huge amount of treasure and if you don't know where that treasure is coming from, you haven't "fully committed" to anything.

G&M Reporter: "Minister, where is the 60+ billion dollars of additional funding coming from? Is your government planning on increasing the size of the deficit or cutting spending from other areas?"

MND: "Waffle waffle waffle..." (sorry, it was way too long to actually type out but it really was a long-winded non-answer).

G&M Reporter: "So to be clear am I to interpret from that, that you haven't determined where that money will come from?"

MND: "Our government has fully committed to making sure that the CAF are going to be on a sustainable footing for the next 20 years."

We'll see the holes in this plan in the next budget when for the first time they actually have to throw an additional 2-4 billion into the DND account.

 

[MarkOttawa]

Main gov't defence policy page:
http://dgpaapp.forces.gc.ca/en/canada-defence-policy/index.asp

Backgrounder: Investments to Enhance Capability and Capacity
http://dgpaapp.forces.gc.ca/en/canada-defence-policy/news/investments-enhance-capability-capacity.asp

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MilEME09]

nothing a 3% National defense tax can't fix

 

[PPCLI Guy]

http://dgpaapp.forces.gc.ca/en/canada-defence-policy/docs/canada-defence-policy-report.pdf

I think this answers that question.  Almost 2 Billion investment starting next fiscal year, approximately 1 billion the next fiscal year.

It does slow down in 2019/20 but ramps back up in 2020/21 with an almost 2.5 billion dollar investment that fiscal year.

I think this shows they are serious

Any more than that and we would not be able to spend it.  Given the length of recapitalisation programs, the funds must necessarily be assigned in the out years.

 

[MarkOttawa]

Globe story--note CSC, new fighter costs (no new subs planned):

Ottawa lays out $62-billion in new military spending over 20 years

Ottawa has announced plans for a beefed-up and modernized military that includes tens of billions of dollars in new spending, although the biggest budget increases are years down the road.

The new money in the 20-year plan will be used to add 5,000 regular and reserve personnel, buy a bigger-than-expected fleet of 88 fighter jets, and pay for the ballooning cost of 15 military vessels called surface combatants, among other details announced by National Defence.

Canada’s new defence policy includes $62.3-billion in additional spending over the next 20 years, including a total of just $6.6-billion over the next five years...

Federal officials said the influx of funding will bring defence spending to 1.4 per cent of GDP, still shy of the goal of 2 per cent among NATO allies. As it stands, NATO, a defence alliance of Western countries, estimates that Canada spends 1 per cent of GDP on defence, while Canada estimates it is actually spending 1.2 per cent using a different formula...

The document states that the cost of 15 new surface combatants will be in the $56– to $60-billion range, up from previous estimates of $26-billion. The $30-billion increase in the budget for the vessels shows the extent to which major military spending plans have historically been underestimated and unfunded.

The Royal Canadian Navy is not planning to buy new submarines as part of this plan, but rather to modernize its current Victoria-class vessels.

In terms of fighter jets, the plans state the government is still exploring the purchase of an interim fleet of 18 Super Hornet fighter jets to meet short-term needs. However, Ottawa is now embroiled in a commercial dispute with U.S.-based manufacturer Boeing, which has slowed down the process.

Regarding the complete replacement of Canada’s fleet of CF-18s in the 2020s, the government now estimates that it will need to buy 88 new fighter jets to meet all international commitments. This is a significant increase from the 65 fighter jets that were planned under the previous Conservative government.

Officials refused to lay out the budget for the potential purchase of Super Hornets. They said the acquisition of the full fleet of 88 fighter jets will cost up to $19-billion, up from the previous government’s budget of $9-billion for the now-cancelled purchase of 65 Lockheed-Martin F-35s.

As part of the recruitment of new military personnel, the Canadian Armed Forces are planning to add 605 new personnel to their special operations forces, which are deployed in some of Canada’s most dangerous and lethal missions. Overall, National Defence is planning to add 3,500 members to its regular force (currently at 68,000) and 1,500 to its reserve force (currently at 28,500)...
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-lays-out-62-billion-in-new-military-spending-over-20-years/article35231311/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[jmt18325]

That's lifecycle costs.  The costs at $1.2B per ship are completely reasonable.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

How much of the increase is just putting back the money they said they were deferring?

 

[jmt18325]

How much of the increase is just putting back the money they said they were deferring?

This is more than that.

Perhaps the most important piece:

http://dgpaapp.forces.gc.ca/en/canada-defence-policy/news/modernizing-business-defence.asp

 

[The Bread Guy]

This table from an appendix (pg 106 here) caught my eye ...

... This policy ensures the Canadian Armed Forces will be prepared to simultaneously:

• Defend Canada, including responding concurrently to multiple domestic emergencies in support of civilian authorities;

• Meet its NORAD obligations, with new capacity in some areas;

• Meet commitments to NATO Allies under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty; and

• Contribute to international peace and stability through:

-- Two sustained deployments of ~500-1500 personnel, including one as a lead nation;
-- One time-limited deployment of ~500-1500 personnel (6-9 months duration);
-- Two sustained deployments of ~100-500 personnel and;
-- Two time-limited deployments (6-9 months) of ~100-500 personnel;
-- One Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) deployment, with scaleable additional support;
-- One Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation, with scaleable additional support ...

So, doable?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

As un-sexy as that is, Space and Cyber *are* part of defense.  Try conducting modern coalition operations without satellite and/or secure comms.

True, but these are the Liberals who are the masters of waving one hand while sliding money off the table for something else. I see these references as "pipes" to funnel money away from basic defense matters to more squishy and politically attractive (to the Liberals) projects, like funding an R&D building in a Liberal riding to promote "Space oriented research". Yes the Cynic is strong in this one.   

 

[MilEME09]

-- Two sustained deployments of ~500-1500 personnel, including one as a lead nation;
-- One time-limited deployment of ~500-1500 personnel (6-9 months duration);
-- Two sustained deployments of ~100-500 personnel and;
-- Two time-limited deployments (6-9 months) of ~100-500 personnel;
-- One Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) deployment, with scaleable additional support;
-- One Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation, with scaleable additional support ...

So basically two afghanistan sized amounts of personal deployed almost all the time, I feel like an extra 3000 reg force ain't going to cover it.

 

[RocketRichard]

Is it too early to gloat?

Nope

 

[ModlrMike]

Is it too early to gloat?

A $62.5Bn plan over 20 years with no definition of how it's going to be funded. Forgive me if I don't hold my breath.