Dion factor looms large in Harper's decision on fall session
TheStar.com September 06, 2007 James Travers Ottawa
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It's easy to be distracted in the political shell game. So get ready for a surprise ballot question should a fall federal election plod from improbable to here we go again.
Afghanistan, the environment and the Stephen Harper trust factor will be fiercely debated if this government skewers itself on the sword of its own October throne speech. But the margin between winning and losing, majority and minority, is more likely to be Stéphane Dion.
Nine months after an upset convention victory, Dion remains an enigma. Is he a slow starter whose earnest integrity will ultimately fuel another fast finish? Or is he a serial stumbler awkwardly going through the motions of a first and last run as Liberal leader?
Much of the cleverness in the Prime Minister's decision to delay Parliament's return is that the answer will be clearer before Conservatives have to decide on the provocativeness of new fall priorities. Should Dion's chosen candidate lose traditionally Liberal-safe Outremont in a Sept. 17 by-election, party confidence in the leader and his ability to rebuild its Quebec base will vaporize. Knives now barely hidden will flash into full view.
That's no way to fight a campaign some lean and hungry Liberals see as the necessary precursor to another equally necessary leadership contest. But it would be a bonus for a prime minister who grasps Dion's importance to Conservatives.
As pollster and analyst Angus Reid puts it, Dion is the cork in the Liberal bottle. Antipathy to the Liberal leader is what keeps the Official Opposition from taking advantage of public discomfort with this prime minister and what he and his secretive clique might do with essentially unfettered power.
"As much as the country dislikes Harper, it dislikes Dion more," he says. "That makes it very difficult for Liberals to capitalize on Conservative weakness."
Numbers support Reid's conclusions. While only one in three Canadians support Conservatives, Dion scores half as well as Harper as preferred prime minister.
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TheStar.com September 06, 2007 James Travers Ottawa
Article Link
It's easy to be distracted in the political shell game. So get ready for a surprise ballot question should a fall federal election plod from improbable to here we go again.
Afghanistan, the environment and the Stephen Harper trust factor will be fiercely debated if this government skewers itself on the sword of its own October throne speech. But the margin between winning and losing, majority and minority, is more likely to be Stéphane Dion.
Nine months after an upset convention victory, Dion remains an enigma. Is he a slow starter whose earnest integrity will ultimately fuel another fast finish? Or is he a serial stumbler awkwardly going through the motions of a first and last run as Liberal leader?
Much of the cleverness in the Prime Minister's decision to delay Parliament's return is that the answer will be clearer before Conservatives have to decide on the provocativeness of new fall priorities. Should Dion's chosen candidate lose traditionally Liberal-safe Outremont in a Sept. 17 by-election, party confidence in the leader and his ability to rebuild its Quebec base will vaporize. Knives now barely hidden will flash into full view.
That's no way to fight a campaign some lean and hungry Liberals see as the necessary precursor to another equally necessary leadership contest. But it would be a bonus for a prime minister who grasps Dion's importance to Conservatives.
As pollster and analyst Angus Reid puts it, Dion is the cork in the Liberal bottle. Antipathy to the Liberal leader is what keeps the Official Opposition from taking advantage of public discomfort with this prime minister and what he and his secretive clique might do with essentially unfettered power.
"As much as the country dislikes Harper, it dislikes Dion more," he says. "That makes it very difficult for Liberals to capitalize on Conservative weakness."
Numbers support Reid's conclusions. While only one in three Canadians support Conservatives, Dion scores half as well as Harper as preferred prime minister.
More on link
