Discussion on Israeli Strategy

[Colin Parkinson]

Keep in mind that Hezbollah was seen by Indian peacekeepers using UN disguises to kidnap IDF soldiers, other sources here and elsewhere report seeing photo’s of armed Hezbollah using ambulances as transports. Plus they have a long history of using protected sites as shields. Your opponent will only tolerate so much of that stuff before saying “to bad”

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Last update - 19:02 26/07/2006


Canadian-Israeli prof. arrested on suspicion of spying for Hezbollah

By Tamara Traubmann and Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondents

A Canadian-Israeli professor has been held by Israeli authorities for 18 days without access to a lawyer, on suspicion of spying for Hezbollah and Iranian intelligence agents. A gag order on the case was lifted Wednesday after Haaretz appealed to Nazareth Magistrates Court. Professor Ghazi Falah was arrested while touring the Rosh Hanikra area, on July 8, four days before the outbreak of the current conflict in Lebanon.



He was approached by individuals who identified themselves as security officials, and who instructed him to stop photographing. Falah refused, and after an argument, was arrested. Falah, a professor of geography at the University of Akron, said he had taken the pictures as part of his acadmic research.Before Wednesday, Falah had not been permitted to speak to his lawyer, Hussein Abu Hussein. The police and the Shin Bet security service repeatedly refused to lift the gag order placed on this case, despite wide publicity in media sources in Canada, U.S., and Britain. According to security officials, Falah is suspected of "spying for hostile sources, with the goal of harming state security," in reference to his alleged connections with Hezbollah and Iranian intelligence. They said Falah was allegedly sent by Hezbollah and Iran to various locations to photograph and report where rockets have landed in Israel. Security officials said Falah was photographing a military antenna in Rosh Hanikra. He recently took a trip to Beirut, and two years before visited Iran, where the Shin Bet believes he established contacts with Iranian intelligence officials. Falah has denied all suspicions against him, claiming the purpose of his trip to Beirut had to been to organize an international conference on geography in the Arab world. Fatah said his trip to Tehran had been in the company of Alex Murphy, former head of the American Geography Asscociation, and was solely for acadmic purposes. "I am a geographer and an Academic researcher, and I have never made any connections secret or illegal with intelliegence or terror sources," Falah told Haaretz in a statement given by his lawyer. Falah said all the pictures he had taken along the length of the strip outside of Nahariya were designated for his research, and the rest of the pictures were similar to those he took during his visits in Lebanon from Tyre southward until Israel.Falah's remand was extended Wednesday by four days. His lawyer, Hussein, has appealed to the Haifa District Court against the extension.Academics around the world have organized an international campaign on behalf of Falah, led by Murphy, calling on Israel to allow Falah due process, and to either present him with an indictment or release him. "I am greatly concerned by reports that he has not had access to a lawyer or been able to communicate with his family and friends," said Murphy.

 

[Kirkhill]

You can't say have a democracy, but you can only have a party that we like.

Actually Rey you can.  Or rather we can say that you can have any party you like but we may not choose to treat with them and you will have to be responsible for the consequences of the decision to elect them and accept their policies.  I tried to say that here.

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/22129/post-415706.html#msg415706

 

[Brad Sallows]

>1. Is the intelligence strong, is it a wild a** guess, or is it a bomb it and let see what we find. I think there should be a strong level of proof for this.

There's supposed to be strong supporting evidence.  The most variable factor is the nationality of the targeters.  Some nations hold to stricter standards than others.  As a hypothetical, if there was near-certainty that a location was being used to store munitions and also near-certainty that those munitions would be transferred elsewhere shortly, I'd be inclined to make the attack while they're in transit or at the new location.

>2. When are you going to bomb it? At night is probably better, fewer people killed. You want to increase insurgent/terrorist ranks, bomb it during prayers.

Time is always a factor taken into account by targeters.  If you were able to peruse target lists from prior conflicts, I expect you'd find targets for which no particular time of day mattered and were consequently attacked when they were expected to be least occupied.

>3. This does not mean that all Mosques are now open game.

It shouldn't.  Each target which does not normally have a purely military purpose is expected to be assessed on its own merits, within the time frame for which there is some applicable military necessity.

 

[zipperhead_cop]

In regard to the post about people saying that Hezbollah being their protector.
I believe that statements shouldn't be taken in a vacum. In that regard I want to throw out a couple of things.
1. Hezbollah has a very strong community assistance aspect, they supply services that are not otherwise available in certain areas.
2. Sabra and Shatila are probably still strong in their minds. From my experience, people from the mid and far east have a long memory.

With regards to point #1, I'm sure they do nice things for people.  If it was all suicide bombs and starvation they wouldn't be quite as popular.  They are aware of the "hearts and minds" concept as well.  But can you honestly say that Hezbollah or Hamas genuinely act in the interests of their people?  How is getting obliterated by Israel helping the average citizen of those countries?  What they do manage to do, is foment hatred and keep the fight alive, and that plays in to Iran's interests.  You can't honestly say that there was any legitimate reason for the Israeli soldiers to be kidnapped, other than to provoke this shooting war. 
So far as #2, sorry.  I don't know what those two names mean. 

Destroying infrastructure.
A case could be made for destroying bridges, roads and some buildings in southern Lebanon.
But I've heard reports of bombs falling in norther Lebanon (anecdotal, on radio). I've also read a couple of articles that mentioned attacks on hospitals in Beirut, a pharmaceutical factory (I believe), a papermill (Toilet paper?), Lebanese military barracks (Interesting, esp as the Israeli govt holds the position that they want the Lebanese Army to secure the southern border).
This morning was the news on the UN observation post getting hit - 3 dead 1 missing or 4 dead, also a report of 2 ambulances evacuating injured civilians from Tyre getting shot up - no one killed.
As a civilian, I really cannot see any military necessity to attack these targets

Hezbollah is being resupplied through Syria by Iran.  If you take out the bridges and communications, that makes it more difficult for them.  As well, that has the effect of carving the area into more manageable areas to secure.  As far as the soft targets, it is well known that the terrorists use the civilian structures to hide their weapons.  They aren't kidding anyone. 

There were some comments along the line of "you elected them, its your fault".
You can't say have a democracy, but you can only have a party that we like. Like it or not, like the IRA, Hamas, Hezbollah and P.L.O. have both a terrorist/paramilitary and a political wing.

Hey, Hitler was elected, and he did some great things for Germany.  Nice highways and such.  However, I don't think that anyone would like to see that party come up for re-election again. 
I think it was Couchcommander who made a point about Arabs having to change their way of thinking in that they need to see suicide bombings and martyrdom as being bad things and socially unacceptable.  If the general population of Lebanon and Palestine supports these terrorist groups, then they have some serious perception problems.  Israel did what it promised and pulled back.  Those countries had a pretty good chance at getting sorted out, and they blew it.  That's where the "you made your bed, lie in it" sentiments come from.  There is no place for sidelines here.  You are for, or against.

 

[Lost_Warrior]

Hezbollah is being resupplied through Syria by Iran.  If you take out the bridges and communications, that makes it more difficult for them.  As well, that has the effect of carving the area into more manageable areas to secure.  As far as the soft targets, it is well known that the terrorists use the civilian structures to hide their weapons.  They aren't kidding anyone. 

But at what point do you stop and say "wait, if we destroy too much of the infrastructure, we are causing more than just a little collateral damage"

Israel can drop as many bombs as they want. These bombs have caused the loss of  200+ civilian lives so far and there is no sign of letting up, so you have to ask yourself how many lives are too much before Israel has to start changing tactics?

How many buildings have to be destroyed because a few Hezbollah militants are hiding inside?

It's a shame that Hezbollah uses civilian buildings to hide in, but at some point there will be no buildings and civilian infrastructure left standing, and then what are the Lebanese people supposed to do?    The excuse "Hezbollah uses people as shields" can only last so long.  They can't destroy the country and use that excuse to get away with it.

Every day innocent people die, and every day hatred for Israel grows.  All they are doing is recruiting more people who might one day walk on a bus in Israel ad blow him/herself up.

 

[GO!!!]

In regards to the targets being selected by the Israelis, it should be noted that Hezbollah's infrastructure is not limited to military and humanitarian interests.

Hezbollah is well known to operate a variety of legal business interests, and to profit greatly from them. This money is then used to support the terrorist wing of the party.

The bombing of various factories and plants (IMHO) is an effort to hurt Hezbollah's ability to raise money within Lebanon, although we won't know this for sure until years after the fact.

Why would the Israelis randomly bomb various private interests within Lebanon with no reason to do so? Most posters would agree with me here that a suffering populace is not a strategic goal in and of itself.

 

[tomahawk6]

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1153292001539&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

The news reports of the fighting inside Lebanon is very interesting and in some respects is somewhat like the tactics we have seen in Iraq. The Israelis are MOUT experts and yet they seem to have been caught by surprise. The lessons learned stuff I have read today indicates politicians are hamstringing the army. The  politicians are not satisfied with the generals in Northern Command and may bring back MG Ashkenazi former GOC Northern Command. The battle for Bin Jubeil was a setback for the IDF which took alot of casualties during the battle. Hizbollah has been able to build tunnels and command centers throughout southern Lebanon. It is a very tough slog. This type of battle is not something the IDF likes, rather they prefer mobile warfare which they are very good at. By the time Hizbollah is defeated and Israel is sitting on the Littani river they will have taken 400-600 killed and thousands wounded. For a small nation like Israel this is a very high price but one the nation will pay for its survival.

 

[GAP]

Is that not what the bunker buster bombs are for? Those tunnel systems can be pretty extensive.

 

[FastEddy]

Every day innocent people die, and every day hatred for Israel grows.  All they are doing is recruiting more people who might one day walk on a bus in Israel ad blow him/herself up.

So whats your point !, they've been doing that anyway for decades (without provocation).

Maybe its time to pay the piper.

 

[1feral1]

Every day innocent people die, and every day hatred for Israel grows.  All they are doing is recruiting more people who might one day walk on a bus in Israel ad blow him/herself up.

Every single child or innocent person killed by the Israeli's collateral damage is admittedly regretful by the IDF, and their government. Meanwhile every rocket fired into Israel, and every child or innocent person KILLED is deliberate and is seen as a victory and a trimuph to the Hezbollah. After all Hezbollah's main mission in life is to wipe Israel off the planet.

Masked Hezbollah gunmen walk around built up areas, kids and families near by, the UAVs pickup the gunmen, and fire a Hellfire at them. Thats one example alone. Then to have a purpose built room in houses dedicated for ammo/wpns/rocket  storage and a deliberate concrete pad on ones roof, or in one yard for launching rockets, etc makes things a target.

The Hezbollah are USING the locals (thats a crime in itself, but remember they don't think like we do, life is cheap over there), and have bought their way in with the 'hearts and minds' practice, plus I am also sure intimidation and pressure tactics have been used to.

One sees the gunmen going about their normal business as locals of all ages saunter by without care. Why are they staying and not leaving? or at least not indoors? Hummmm. The locals have been warned, adn have made their choice.

Now Hezballah ups the anti saying they will strike deeper into Israel with bigger rockets. Of course the IDF will respond, Wouldn't we if we were in thesame situation? You better believe we would.

Thats war!

Again a few cents from the old dog,

Wes

 

[GAP]

this on CNN
Al Qaeda: War with Israel is 'jihad'
Says Arab and Islamic governments complicit; Muslims must fight
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/27/zawahiri.ap/index.html

Thursday, July 27, 2006 Posted: 1233 GMT (2033 HKT)

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -- Al Qaeda's No. 2 leader issued a worldwide call Thursday for Muslims to rise up in a holy war against Israel and join the fighting in Lebanon and Gaza until Islam reigns from "Spain to Iraq."

In a taped message broadcast by Al-Jazeera television, Ayman al-Zawahiri said the terrorist organization would not stand idly by while "these (Israeli) shells burn our brothers.

"All the world is a battlefield open in front of us," said the Egyptian-born al-Zawahiri, second-in-command to Osama bin Laden.

"The war with Israel does not depend on cease-fires ... . It is a Jihad for the sake of God and will last until (our) religion prevails ... from Spain to Iraq," al-Zawahiri said. "We will attack everywhere." Spain was controlled by Arab Muslims until they were driven from the country at the turn of the 16th century.
More on link

 

[Lost_Warrior]

So whats your point !, they've been doing that anyway for decades (without provocation).

Maybe its time to pay the piper.

Since when were your average Lebanese civilians blowing themselves up every day in Israel?

 

[Rey]

Keep in mind that Hezbollah was seen by Indian peacekeepers using UN disguises to kidnap IDF soldiers, other sources here and elsewhere report seeing photo’s of armed Hezbollah using ambulances as transports. Plus they have a long history of using protected sites as shields. Your opponent will only tolerate so much of that stuff before saying “to bad”

I have seen the article, but in how many instances were Hezbollah dressed as UN. How many UN patrols have travelled along the Lebanon/Israel border. If it has been 1 instance in 100, it doesn't seem to me to be a reasonable action to attack them randomly, especially if the patrol is on the Lebanese side of the border.
The position that was attacked was an unarmed observation post, in fact another person had posted a link to a CBC interview with the Canadian from the very position that was attacked.
The same position called the IDF about the fact that bombs were falling near their position

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0726-05.htm

IF they are setting up a rocket pointing at Israel, then yes, it's probably wise to act.
My point is that if a only a minority of UN patrol/units have been Hezbollah in UN uniform, you can't say to bad and attack randomly

I hold the same position on attacks on ambulances. Out of all the attacks on ambulances, how many were documented to have carried arms. Again, if it's only a small percentage, I can't see targetting ambulances as being a moral action.

Are protected sites being targetted due to intelligence or hit and lets see what we find.

Saying that there is a long history of a certain act is not proof.

At what point are these three thing you mentioned considered safe.
I'll use the ambulance as a an example. An ambulance is attacked and found to have been carrying arms, the next 30 are not, how much longer do you keep attacking ambulances? How can you differentiate between explosives or oxygen tanks exploding in an ambulances.

 

[Ty]

I have seen the article, but in how many instances were Hezbollah dressed as UN. How many UN patrols have travelled along the Lebanon/Israel border. If it has been 1 instance in 100, it doesn't seem to me to be a reasonable action to attack them randomly, especially if the patrol is on the Lebanese side of the border.

I don't believe that Israel should have ever bombed a UN position knowingly (still not proven they did) 

But, even if they felt that militants were using the UN base as cover, they still did not (based on infromation thus far) warn the UN members to vacate the area- even after repeated calls from an Irish Lt-Colonol stationed there. 

*If* this was a deliberate action and *if* the IDF did not warn of this action, then I hope Canada will demand that all ranks (military or govermental) that knew and acted in the attack are brought to justice.

 

[Rey]

Actually Rey you can.  Or rather we can say that you can have any party you like but we may not choose to treat with them and you will have to be responsible for the consequences of the decision to elect them and accept their policies.  I tried to say that here.

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/22129/post-415706.html#msg415706

I read the posting, I can't disagree with it. In fact I agree with it.

My original intent, in a broad way, was to reply to the person who had said that becuase Hezbollah was elected to the Lebanese govt, the Lebanese people had to accept the attacks on them as a result.

I agree govt's can choose who to treat with.

But if you're trying to encourage democracy, shouldn't you at least keep an open line of communications with democratically elected govt's you don't like? In the case of Lebanon, shouldn't the international community (esp USA) do there best to be even handed. It would be a difficult (but necessary) task, I think, to support the Lebanese govt but show displeasure with Hezbollah's militant arm. Something for those far wiser than myself to figure out.

Allowing a newly re-emerging democracy to be, in essence, destroyed will not advance the call for democracy.

 

[GAP]

But if you're trying to encourage democracy, shouldn't you at least keep an open line of communications with democratically elected govt's you don't like

The have...communication with the legitimately elected Lebanese government has never stopped, they were just ineffective

 

[Rey]

...cut...
So far as #2, sorry.  I don't know what those two names mean. 
...cut...

Honest, I'm not trying to flood the thread. Just a slow day at work.


Some information on Sabra and Shatila

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabra_and_Shatila_massacre
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2255902.stm

I found both articles (IMO) to be fairly neutral, you could probably find more information by Goolgling the names.

Something I just read, thought it might make an interesting counterpoint to the original post on the thread.

Hezbollah surprised by onslaught
Wednesday 26 July 2006, 2:26 Makka Time, 23:26 GMT 

A senior Hezbollah official has said that he did not expect Israel to react so strongly to the group's capture of two Israeli soldiers two weeks ago.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/3FB0807A-DA38-455C-BDCB-C1A47655E8B7.htm

 

[GAP]

Interesting Read

In the heat - and stupidity - of battleThu, July 27, 2006  By RACHEL MARSDEN Toronto Sun
http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Marsden_Rachel/2006/07/27/1704239.html

As the Israeli military continues to kill Hezbollah Islamic terrorists in Lebanon, finally a country other than the U.S. is taking a turn at doing the heavy lifting in the terror war.

But where there's war, there's also idiocy. Here are just a few examples from the past week:

* Some media commentators are saying Lebanon is an innocent victim. Hezbollah bombed the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, with the support of Syria and Iran, back in 1983. Lebanon has repeatedly been asked, most recently via UN Resolution 1559 in 2004, to disarm Hezbollah. Instead, it has allowed the terrorists to sit in the Lebanese parliament. That's like having Tony Soprano as a houseguest. One day, someone will inevitably bust down your door and trash the place, with you in it.

* A few analysts say this is the start of World War III. Where have these people been? World War III began when Islamic terrorists ventured out of the Middle East and perpetrated an act of war on nearly 3,000 people from 87 countries on 9/11, and continued with last year's London subway bombings.

* Thousands of Canadians were in Lebanon when the bombing started. Here's a press release the UN issued: "The Secretary-General condemns the continued bombings in Lebanon, where an explosion in Beirut late Saturday killed two people and injured at least eight others. He is especially saddened that this latest attack, the third in Lebanon in only a week, was carried out on the eve of Easter." The thing is, this notice was from March of last year. How freaking thick do you have to be to not notice people being killed around you, or the five State Department warnings issued since November 2004? Maybe investing in a basic Internet connection would have saved some of these folks (and us) all that whining about the lack of air conditioning during the evacuation.

* Critics here and abroad complained about the speed of evacuation efforts. Sorry if we don't rush right over there on demand! Heaven forbid we take our time to prevent potential terrorists from catching a free flight to our country. I don't think we should be using Canadian passports to determine whom to rescue. The chief weapons buyer for the Tamil Tigers, and several al-Qaida terrorists, have fake Canadian passports. Instead, we should be checking for Shoppers Drug Mart or Safeway points cards as proof of Canadian residency.

* Exiled hate preacher Omar Bakri, to whom the 9/11 suicide bombers are bigger than The Beatles, now wants the Brits to bail him out of Lebanon. Hey Omar, this is your Super Bowl Sunday and the Israeli Defence Forces are waiting for you. Get in the game, big guy!

* Britain's Sun newspaper reports that 27 Iranian suicide bombers are heading to Lebanon. The group's spokesman says that the wannabe martyrs "were picked from 55,000 who registered in Iran. They were briefed and have completed the 'relevant courses.'" I'm guessing they were at the bottom of the class, because the star students at self-detonation school wouldn't have survived the final exam, would they? But in a war rife with idiots, they'll fit right in.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>I don't believe that Israel should have ever bombed a UN position knowingly (still not proven they did) 

>But, even if they felt that militants were using the UN base as cover, they still did not (based on infromation thus far) warn the UN members to vacate the area- even after repeated calls from an Irish Lt-Colonol stationed there. 

>*If* this was a deliberate action and *if* the IDF did not warn of this action, then I hope Canada will demand that all ranks (military or govermental) that knew and acted in the attack are brought to justice.

Where is it written that the UN should receive considerations which would not be due to a farmer whose property was misused by combatants?