DND early warning system based on 'integrative complexity coding'?

[Greymatters]

During one of my search projects I came across this tender for a CF R&D project:
http://www.merx.com/English/Supplier_Menu.Asp?WCE=Show&TAB=1&PORTAL=&State=7&id=PW-%24TOR-018-4550&FED_ONLY=0&hcode=Dpg5ai8SfJq69ivdeMoQfQ%3d%3d

Basically, Prof. Peter Suedfeld from UBC is being approved to develop a system of Early Warning and Indicators for the DND based on foreign leader psychology and using a method called "integrative complexity coding".  Anyone got any good 'layman's terms' examples of what that is?

 

[The Bread Guy]

It appears to be some type of codified content analysis of words, typically via writing, speeches and/or policy statements - kinda like "message-int" (MESINT?)...

http://jcr.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/46/2/286?ck=nck
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-0027(198812)32%3A4%3C626%3ACIICPT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-9#abstract
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=1556&page=53
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Web-based+peer+supervision,+collective+self-esteem,+and+case...-a0157032926

And it appears Dr. S. is a pretty-frequently-cited expert in the field.  His definition:

http://www.psych.ubc.ca/~psuedfeld/index2.html

Integrative complexity is a measure of the intellectual style used by individuals or groups in processing information, problem solving, and decision making. Complexity looks at the structure of one's thoughts, while ignoring the contents. It is scorable from almost any verbal materials: books, articles, fiction, letters, speeches and speech transcripts, video and audio tapes, and interviews.
Complexity has two components, differentiation and integration. Differentiation refers to the perception of different dimensions when considering an issue. Integration refers to the recognition of cognitive connections among differentiated dimensions or perspectives.

Happy to hear more detail as well...

 

[Greymatters]

Thats what i got so far as well.  Hoping there is some sort of 'quick reference list' or checklist out there...

 

[Munxcub]

So basically he can tell if a world leader is going to do something bad based on the way he delivers speeches? Would the fact that they don't usually write their own speeches impact it I wonder or is it all in the delivery.

 

[Greymatters]

There are experts out there whose specialty is to listen in on phone calls and watch during debates, and apply those kind of principles, but it is referred to as kinesics and behavioural analysis.  Possilby the same or related to 'ICC'?

 

[The Bread Guy]

So basically he can tell if a world leader is going to do something bad based on the way he delivers speeches? Would the fact that they don't usually write their own speeches impact it I wonder or is it all in the delivery.

Since this is the case, if you don't get insights into the speaker, you would certainly be able to glean something about the "speechwriters", just like a speech by our PM tells you a bit about what the Government of Canada as a whole is focusing on.  On an individual basis, I'm guessing you could probably glean more individual MESINT from transcripts of spontaneous speech, letters or journals.

 

[Greymatters]

Thats one of the drawbacks to this whole system of evaluating a speaker based on their written/verbal content.  Most speeches given by higher level politicians and leaders are wriiten by other people, so the content being evaluated has limited relation to the leader's personality.

 

[Old Sweat]

GreyMatter,

I wonder if that is completely true. It seems to me that a competent speech writer captures his client's intention and delivery style, and this comes with familiarity with the subject and the speaker.

 

[Greymatters]

I would agree this is the standard in North America, however, this is not the standard in other countries who would no doubt be the target of such analysis.

 

[The Bread Guy]

It seems to me that a competent speech writer captures his client's intention and delivery style, and this comes with familiarity with the subject and the speaker.

If the system has a civil service bureaucracy writing the speech, based on my limited experience, the "system messages" will likely take priority over the client's delivery style.  Mind you, in a democracy, the "system messages" would be governed by the leader/governing party, so the intent should be the same as that of the PM/head of government. If this is the case, you could pick up hints about the "system" from the messaging.

 

[a_majoor]

Looking at linkages between ideas does give an idea of the relative emphasis governments assign various policies, how much they want to emphasise them to particular audiences (how many times is policy "x" mentioned in domestic publications/media vs international media?) and what sorts of resources will be directed to various policies. This isn't a magic bullet by any means, but just another set of indicators.

This also may or may not be helpful in deciphering what is going on. US elites were very "pro" unrestricted immigration, but the public is very opposed; just going by this methodology would give you a skewed idea of the importance of this issue. The open anti-war bias of the MSM and political elites in the US would also skew any analysis of American military or foreign policy in SW Asia. If we can see these problems in an open society, imagine what would come out closed or autocratic regimes like Cuba, Iran, Venezuela or Russia.

Perhaps a more important use of this methodology would be to discern propaganda trends and prepare counters (they say "x" but are doing "y"), and cut through the clutter and see what is really important.

 

[Edward Campbell]

We used to have, literally, battalions of Kremlinologists studying every word and image coming out of the old USSR.  Some of them (e.g. Zbigniew Brzezinski and Condoleezza Rice) moved pretty far up the official food chain based, in part, upon their study of the Soviets.  We had – probably still have – equal numbers analyzing the Chinese.  A lot of that work involved scrutinizing ‘open source’ material: every daily paper, magazine and broadcast, looking for some hint about attitudes and intentions.

I suppose they are always looking for tools to make that review and analysis a bit easier and a bit more accurate.

A good analyst needs a combination of language skills and insights (usually garnered through an excellent education) – ‘tools’ like integrative complexity coding might help make a good analyst better but they’ll do nothing to make a poor analyst into a acceptable one.

 

[Greymatters]

I like the analysis, but in the end, I guess no one else knows what it is either, eh?

 

[Edward Campbell]

... I guess no one else knows what it is either, eh?

I sure don't  :-[  ... retirment couldn't come too fast after they automated the central registry.  I 'lived' off the skill of the good ladies who managed all the cross references, etc.