Election 2011 - The Aftermath for the Leaders

[ModlrMike]

Not wanting to derail the major thread on the election, here's some food for thought.

What happens to the various party leaders after the election? My take based on various scenarios:

1. CPC majority, Liberals lose seats, NDP gains, Bloc loses seats = Harper retires gracefully before his term ends, Iggy gone soon, Layton stays, Duceppe gone soon.

2. CPC minority, remainder as above = Harper goes in 1-2 years time, remainder as above.

3. CPC reduced minority, all others gain = Harper goes in 2 years time, Iggy goes in 2 years, Layton and Duceppe stay.

There are a number of other possible outcomes, but I wager these are the most likely. Your thoughts?

 

[GAP]

Iggy will be gone in June, if not sooner. Jack just renewed his mandate with the dippers. Harper isn't going anywhere...aside from the fact there's no realistic candidates in the wings....McKay has seen his best before date.......

 

[dapaterson]

Harper isn't going anywhere...aside from the fact there's no realistic candidates in the wings....

And that is perhaps the most troubling failure of his leadership.  Good leaders plan to ensure succession - with sufficient depth that if Bloggins leaves there's still another one or two in the wings.

A PM should be grooming successors within the party.

 

[GR66]

Regardless of how the Conservative PARTY does in the election, Harper has "won".  A strong showing by the Liberals left open the opportunity for the Conservatives to lose the confidence of the house.  A resulting Liberal government could very easily have spelled the end of Harper's leadership.

I personally think that is very unlikely to happen now.  It would be political suicide for the Liberals to grasp for power after taking a drubbing at the polls and I can't see them handing the role of logical alternative to the Conservatives over to Layton and the NDP.

Majority or minority, Harper WILL be Prime Minister for the next 1-2 years minimum (unless my Spidey-Senses are TOTALLY wrong and the NDP pulls off the political upset of the millenium and gets enough seats to be a legitimate alternative to the Conservatives in the House).  I don't think Harper's future as PM was nearly so certain just a few weeks ago. 

I strongly agree with dataperson on the "problem" of Harper's leadership as well.  I can't see him changing his style of governance willingly and if he remains PM it will be hard for anyone to force him to change.  That could spell trouble for the party in the longer term if their opponents actually manage to get their act together.

 

[Haletown]

Layton as Opposition Leader will have two ++problems.

The Bloc will have no reason to help him after the NDP eats Duceppe's political lunch.  Duceppe will likely have pressure to leave and let some new leader in.  As long as the Bloc sees the NDP as their political competition, there will be no love lost in Quebec socialist land.

Ditto for the Liberals  - no reason to support Jacko, just for different reasons - they need to finally do what they should have done five years ago -  they undergo major political surgery and rehabilitation.  It will start by amputating Iggy.

The Bloc and Libs don't have to "support" Harper either. They just won't show up for votes and Layton will be powerless  . . .  all the while the NDP policies will get some  well deserved exposure and Jacko will get asked a lot of very tough questions.

I think if it is a CPC minority, Harper will plan his exit for 2 years out.

 

[Redeye]

Iggy will be gone in June, if not sooner. Jack just renewed his mandate with the dippers. Harper isn't going anywhere...aside from the fact there's no realistic candidates in the wings....McKay has seen his best before date.......

And polls suggest that MacKay may need to dust off his resume, too.  He's trailing, though the margin isn't massive.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Iggy will be gone in June, if not sooner. Jack just renewed his mandate with the dippers.

As for Layton, I think he will be gone pretty soon for health reasons. He just came off having a hip operation and is still battling prostate cancer. Also, his wife, Olivia Chow has also been battling thyroid cancer. He has been campaigning pretty hard and I can imagine that its taking a toll on him. I think we will see him gone by the fall. 

Harper isn't going anywhere...aside from the fact there's no realistic candidates in the wings....McKay has seen his best before date.......

What about Maxime Bernier or Jason Kenny??

 

[a_majoor]

If Jack Layton has the remotest chance of pulling off a coalition, he will bring his IV drip into the House and debate from his hospital bed.

Ignatieff will go, but probably not quietly. The Liberal party may tear themselves apart in internal infighting; Rae vs the "entitled to their entitlements" challengers from Quebec; the Orange vs the Blue faction; believers of the Big Man theory flocking to the Young Dauphin....(I probably left out many more subfactions).

Prime Minister Harper will probably serve out another four years; in a minority or opposition bench telling us "I told you so" and continuing to work on the grand project of building a two party political system. If Prime Minister he will serve out his four years and retire with honour (after carefully preparing a succession plan; someting I don't think he has spent much time on).

Elizabeth May will probably be gone as well; the Green Party is probably regretting the time and money spent on her. I notice that the Greens have very little in the way of "ground troops" or effective riding associations. Of course running as NDP lite has the difficulty of trying to pry the votes from the real NDP or Liberals, so their party platform really needs to be rebuilt from end to end.

 

[a_majoor]

Well Igatieff might not even be around to kick around anymore.

Sun TV is rounding up a list of potential leadership candidates, talk about a "short list"...

 

[ModlrMike]

Duceppe has resigned as leader of the BQ. Even his hand picked successor was defeated.

 

[Infanteer]

Libs = Rae vs Trudeau?  Trudeau appealing for a return to his the party of his father by trying to capture the Liberal center (not the true center) back from despondancy/flirtation with Harper while Ray seeks to come out with a good seat in a move towards a NDP/Lib merger?  Like the legendary CCRAP that came out of the Reform/PC, maybe they'll get an awesome name too.

NDP = Layton's biggest test yet - he can throw stuff out from far left field as a "other party" but now he's got actual responsibilities and has to appease his large Quebec base.  Finishing off the Bloc and Libs for all their votes in the next election is probably what he wants (along with legitimizing the karate teachers and bartenders that make up his caucus).

Cons = Harper's got a lock on the next 4-5 years; can he make it past 10 years or does he start grooming a successor in the next 3-4 (Jason Kenney?)

BQ = Na na na na, na na na na, heeey heeey heeey, au revoir!

Green = WTF, over?

 

[a_majoor]

LPC will be on spin cycle for a while. Sun TV has read the "short list" of potential LPC leadership candidates, it is literally a short list.

Destruction of the National Socialist BQ is the result to be devoutly wished for; they will not be coming back

Jack Layton will be sticking around for a long while; he's got lots of work to do hammering his caucus of "traffic pylons" into an actual political unit but also to enjoy his new found position.

Elizabeth May will be around annoying people for yeas to come, now that she has gained some "legitimacy". Too bad she wasn't knocked off; the Greens could use a good housecleaning and one one level I sort of agree with them. It is hard not to be concerned about nature when living and working in the woods for most of my career (although dealing with -800 wind chill in Suffield or fighting bears in Gagetown were some parts of nature I could do without). Well NDP lite isn't going to make much headway against the real thing, just ask Micheal Ignatieff.

 

[Edward Campbell]

As for Layton, I think he will be gone pretty soon for health reasons. He just came off having a hip operation and is still battling prostate cancer. Also, his wife, Olivia Chow has also been battling thyroid cancer. He has been campaigning pretty hard and I can imagine that its taking a toll on him. I think we will see him gone by the fall. 

What about Maxime Bernier or Jason Kenny??

I'm inclined to agree. I'm about 99.99% certain that Layton wants to stay on but it may not be possible. sad, for him and the NDP, but true all the same.

I also think Harper needs Bernier back - for both local (QC) reasons and because he needs his highly fiscally conservative voice at the table. Kenny, I believe, has earned a promotion but he has done so well in the politically sensitive but vital immigration/multicult portfolio that he may want to stay there and Harper may want him there. Perhaps he will be given a cabinet committee to chair - a kind of promotion about which we do not hear very much.

 

[Old Sweat]

Which of course begs the question of potential NDP leaders waiting in the wings, or at least in the caucus. Thomas Muclair almost certainly, Joe Cromartin (sp?) perhaps, but I have trouble coming up with any other credible candidates, except maybe Bob Rae. (Joking, more or less.)

 

[Edward Campbell]

Which of course begs the question of potential NDP leaders waiting in the wings, or at least in the caucus. Thomas Muclair almost certainly, Joe Cromartin (sp?) perhaps, but I have trouble coming up with any other credible candidates, except maybe Bob Rae. (Joking, more or less.)

I love the idea of Rae taking some Orange Liberals to the NDP and Brison leading some Blue Liberals to the Conservatives and the Liberals finally getting smart and rebuilding as a party of the 'radical centre:'

1. Fiscally conservative, at least as responsible as the Conservatives;

2. Committed to a big, united Canada with no 'special status' for anyone;

3. Committed to St Laurent's vision of Canada in the world; and

4. Socially liberal, taking e.g. abortion and gay marriage for granted.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

party of the 'radical centre:'

1. Fiscally conservative, at least as responsible as the Conservatives;

2. Committed to a big, united Canada with no 'special status' for anyone;

3. Committed to St Laurent's vision of Canada in the world; and

4. Socially liberal, taking e.g. abortion and gay marriage for granted.

Sign me up!

 

[dapaterson]

... and the Liberals finally getting smart and rebuilding as a party of the 'radical centre:'

1. Fiscally conservative, at least as responsible as the Conservatives;

One hopes that they would be as responsible as Paul Martin was when he was in finance; regressing to the Conservative level would be bad.

 

[Redeye]

One hopes that they would be as responsible as Paul Martin was when he was in finance; regressing to the Conservative level would be bad.

Spot on.

That's a party I'd happily support - socially liberal, fiscally conservative.  Harper et all saying they're not going to touch social issues (because it'd be political suicide) just isn't enough comfort for me.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

One hopes that they would be as responsible as Paul Martin was when he was in finance; regressing to the Conservative level would be bad.

As responsible as taking the surpluses from the EI fund at the last minute to create a budget surplus to be announced proving their fiscal responsibility?

 

[dapaterson]

Reducing the GST was good politics but bad economics.

Whereas the introduction of the GST was good economics but bad politics.