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Fighting & Winning The Global War on Terror (WW IV)

From Small Dead Animals: a report that the Al Qaeda was considering a poison gas attack in the New York subway system. One question left open is why the attack would be called off, given the nature of the AQ and their previous actions.

http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/004149.html

Terror Aborted

Exerpts of a new book by Ron Suskind reveal that;

    Al-Qaeda terrorists came within 45 days of attacking the New York subway system with a lethal gas similar to that used in Nazi death camps. They were stopped not by any intelligence breakthrough, but by an order from Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman Zawahiri. And the U.S. learned of the plot from a CIA mole inside al-Qaeda.

    [...]

    U.S. intelligence got its first inkling of the plot from the contents of a laptop computer belonging to a Bahraini jihadist captured in Saudi Arabia early in 2003. It contained plans for a gas-dispersal system dubbed "the mubtakkar" (Arabic for inventive). Fearing that al-Qaeda's engineers had achieved the holy grail of terror R&D — a device to effectively distribute hydrogen-cyanide gas, which is deadly when inhaled — the CIA immediately set about building a prototype based on the captured design, which comprised two separate chambers for sodium cyanide and a stable source of hydrogen, such as hydrochloric acid. A seal between the two could be broken by a remote trigger, producing the gas for dispersal. The prototype confirmed their worst fears: "In the world of terrorist weaponry," writes Suskind, "this was the equivalent of splitting the atom. Obtain a few widely available chemicals, and you could construct it with a trip to Home Depot – and then kill everyone in the store."

    The device was shown to President Bush and Vice President Cheney the following morning, prompting the President to order that alerts be sent through all levels of the U.S. government. Easily constructed and concealed, mass casualties were inevitable if it could be triggered in any enclosed public space.

Via Drudge. Posted by Kate at June 17, 2006 06:41 PM
 
Turns out, as suspected, the US is manufacturing yet another crisis to further their interests.

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewPrint&articleId=11539 (long read, give yourself 15 min)

Some important quotes:

....As the United States was beginning its military occupation of Iraq in April, the Iranians were at work on a bold and concrete proposal to negotiate with the United States on the full range of issues in the U.S.-Iran conflict.....

...The proposal, a copy of which is in the author’s possession, offered a dramatic set of specific policy concessions Tehran was prepared to make in the framework of an overall bargain on its nuclear program, its policy toward Israel, and al-Qaeda.....

....The proposal offered “decisive action against any terrorists (above all, al-Qaeda) in Iranian territory” and “full cooperation and exchange of all relevant information.”....

....To meet the U.S. concern about an Iranian nuclear weapons program, the document offered to accept much tighter controls by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in exchange for “full access to peaceful nuclear technology.” It proposed “full transparency for security [assurance] that there are no Iranian endeavors to develop or possess WMD” and “full cooperation with IAEA based on Iranian adoption of all relevant instruments (93+2 and all further IAEA protocols).” That was a reference to new IAEA protocols that would guarantee the IAEA access to any facility, whether declared or undeclared, on short notice -- something Iran had been urged to adopt but was resisting in the hope of getting something in return.....

....The Iranian proposal also offered a sweeping reorientation of Iranian policy toward Israel. In the past, Iran had attacked those Arab governments that had supported the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and Tehran had supported armed groups that opposed it. But the document offered “acceptance of the Arab League Beirut declaration (Saudi initiative, two-states approach).” The March 2002 declaration had embraced the land-for-peace principle and a comprehensive peace with Israel in return for Israel’s withdrawal to 1967 lines. That position would have aligned Iran’s policy with that of the moderate Arab regimes.....

....Nevertheless, within a few days, Rumsfeld and Cheney had persuaded Bush to cancel the May 21 meeting with Iranian officials. In a masterstroke, Rumsfeld and Cheney had shut down the only diplomatic avenue available for communicating with Iran and convinced Bush that Iran was on the same side as al-Qaeda.....

....By the second half of 2003, American Iran policy had already begun to shift toward the issue of nuclear weapons, on which the neoconservative John Bolton, then the undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, played the lead role. The policy was to put pressure on Iran to force it to completely give up its nuclear fuel cycle by getting the IAEA to vote to take Iran’s case to the U.N. Security Council.....

....Iran began negotiating on the nuclear issue with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany in September 2003 to avoid the Security Council and the prospect of sanctions, and possibly even U.S. warplanes. But Mohammed El Baradei, the chief of the IAEA, who had been meeting with Iranian officials about their nuclear program for months, knew that the essence of the problem was Iran’s unfulfilled need to negotiate a settlement with the United States. According to an account in Newsday earlier this year, El Baradei met with Powell in January 2004 to appeal to him for serious U.S. involvement in the negotiations, warning that negotiations were the only way the issue could be resolved. But Powell wouldn’t respond.....

...When the IAEA voted in February to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council due to concerns over its nuclear program, Iran responded by resuming uranium enrichment and, in April, announced progress in enrichment -- all in defiance of U.S. military threats. But analysts familiar with Iranian thinking believe that the enrichment is not for the purpose of acquiring nuclear weapons but to force the United States to negotiate a settlement with Iran. Najmeh Bozorgmehr, an Iranian journalist who has covered Iran policy for several years, says Iranian leaders are now convinced that they had to show the United States “we can give you a hard time” to induce the administration to negotiate. Bozorgmehr says the enrichment is “producing facts on the ground” that Iran hopes will lead to negotiations. Trita Parsi says senior national security officials he interviewed in 2004 indicated that the rejection of Iran’s 2003 proposals had tilted the internal debate toward that view. “If the United States had engaged Iran in 2003,” Parsi says, “Iran would not be enriching now.”.....

 
Classic couchcommander. Its all the fault of the US ! Had the government just done what the Iranian's wanted we wouldnt be in this mess. You forget that the US policy under Clinton toward North Korea was to give the North Korean's nuclear reactors in exchange for a promise to use them for peaceful means.Today the NK's have nuclear weapons. Below are some of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's untterances.

"Israel must be wiped off the map."

“if we were permitted to hang two or three persons, the problems with the stock exchange would be solved for ever”

"To take Islam throughout the world and save its oppressed populations is a duty for all Muslims, but right now it is the Iranian polity that must do this,
This movement must originate in Qom, Shiite and Iranian Islam's chief cultural centre. Qom forms our cultural calling card and credentials to revolutionise the current world order,"

“From the beginning of time, humanity has longed for the day when justice, peace, equality and compassion envelop the world. All of us can contribute to the establishment of such a world. When that day comes, the ultimate promise of all Divine religions will be fulfilled with the emergence of a perfect human being [12th Imam] who is heir to all prophets and pious men. He will lead the world to justice and absolute peace. O mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the promised one, that perfect and pure human being, the one that will fill this world with justice and peace.”

“Our revolution’s main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi,” Ahmadinejad said in the speech to Friday Prayers leaders from across the country.



 
No, not all. But frequently.  ;D

More seriously, Clinton's foreign policies were almost as dysfunctional as Bush's - I'm not going to be an apologist for previous governments.

The point of the article still stands though - the US administration is trying to railroad the issue rather than exploring options.

And I wouldn't automatically assume that Bush would win a "strange leader quote" fight with Ahmadinejad... ;) In the end, I trust neither.

 
There are only two options when faced by a regime that is hell bent on acquiring nuclear weapons.
The choices ? Do nothing or strike them. Ahmadinejad truely believes in the coming of the 12th Imam. We may in fact see a clash between religious fundamentalists. I will put my money on Bush.
The alternative is the world making travel plans to visit a black rock in Mecca.
 
couchcommander said:
The point of the article still stands though - the US administration is trying to railroad the issue rather than exploring options.
you prefer appeasement then, do you, Mr Chamberlain?
 
No.

Clear and open demands, followed by negotiations, conducted in good faith and with a desire to resolve the issue (however in which we also ensure our fundamental requirements are not fettered away) If these are unable to resolve the issue, and we have sufficient evidence to justify killing lots of people, the direct application of force to specific targets to acheive specific limited objectives. i.e. not "take over Iran", but more along the lines of "destroy their capability to construct, support, and deliver nuclear arms". As I have advocated before in regards to NK, this should be followed by a policy of strict containment until they decide to come around - however I don't think the US would survive not having Iranian oil.

IMHO at least.
 
couchcommander, your bombard and besiege strategy results in the following:

A) a population that will suffer because of their leaders' actions, leaders' with questionable popularity now
B) a population that is likely to become more disgruntled because of the suffering imposed by your strategy
C) a population that is just a likely to rally round unpopular leaders and act out against you as overthrow the current leadership (an act likely to cause more suffering for which you will receive "credit")
D) a population that is likely to look askance at you when you finally realize that invasion was the only option 10 years ago -

"Where were you when we needed you?" and "What took you so long?"

3 options - Bombard, Besiege, Invade.  The first two don't count because you can't bring matters to a conclusion - they just delay the inevitable and increase the suffering of the "average citizen".
 
Kirkhill said:
3 options - Bombard, Besiege, Invade.  The first to don't count because you can't bring matters to a conclusion - they just delay the inevitable and increase the suffering of the "average citizen".

There is a fourth, though I doubt the US can institute it....bring down the regime from within. The people may do that themselves, the west just has to subtly assist

my 2 cents
 
Kirkhill,

Does the US have the capacity to invade to Iran? In my limited analysis I would say they may have the capability to overthrow the government, but to actually occupy and hold the place? no. Goals, IMO, especially ones dealing with so many lives (not just Iranian, but possibly those of our own armed forces), need to be set so that they are acheivable.

Thus we're back to Bombard and Besiege. Yes, you are absolutely right the population will at first learn to hate us. This isn't a short term policy though. It is something that must be undertaken over the long term.

Over the long term, even the most radical leaders will be unable to get anything done and will fall from favour. In the end, like it has happened several times before, the country will eventually come around. Either the leaders will undertake it for their own survival, or the people will force their leaders to do it.

GAP is right with the "bring down the regime from within" - if possible that's not a bad option. It has gone horribly wrong on several occasions though, and even when it does "work" the end state regime is not necessarily better than the one it replaced. Remember the tendancy for things to go more radical before they moderate.
 
Regardless of the means used to "overthrow" the government there is no guarantee of the outcome.  I have no guarantee that I am not going to wake up in 9 months and discover that "Smilin' Jack" is the PM and that he has withdrawn us from NATO and NORAD.

All anybody can ever do is change the status quo.  What happens after that is anybody's guess. 

The only real questions to be asked are:

Is the status quo tolerable?
Is the risk manageable?
Are there any capabilities extant to change the status quo?

Beyond that it becomes a question of doing whatever is going to be done with the minimum of suffering to all parties concerned.
 
Actually there is a better option:

Build Las Vegas across the border with the target state.  Create a no-tax zone.  Stock well with materials unavailable in target country.  Bombard daily with TV and Radio ads.  Send over Cruise Missiles with deep discount vouchers.  Accept target currency at par.  Maybe even add some Dollars to the loads of vouchers.

Let nature take its course. ;D
 
Build Las Vegas across the border with the target state.  Create a no-tax zone.  Stock well with materials unavailable in target country.  Bombard daily with TV and Radio ads.  Send over Cruise Missiles with deep discount vouchers.  Accept target currency at par.  Maybe even add some Dollars to the loads of vouchers

errr- you mean something like....Dubai?  :)
 
Popular location, Dubai?

How's the taxi service across the Gulf?

Perhaps something in Kurdistan would be more centrally located.
 
Options on Iran have been discussed ad nausium on several threads, and the general consensus (if any) is that we allow the "purple finger" strategy to undermine Iran from within (the long term solution), or if sufficient provocation exists, do a decapitating strike on the regime and Republican Guard, and let the people sort out the rest.

Iraq as a constitutional democracy with a consensual government and free market economy represents the main effort of the "purple finger" strategy (with Afghanistan being number two), and is thus a huge threat to the Theocracy of Iran. Their support of the insurgency in southern Iraq is evidence of how badly they need the Iraqis to fail.

Maybe Dubai can help out with some cash and casino staffs on six month rotations.
 
Popular location, Dubai?

How's the taxi service across the Gulf?

Perhaps something in Kurdistan would be more centrally located.

Kirkhill,

It is unbelievable how much small boat traffic goes in and out of Dubai daily for every part of Southwest Asia, most especially Iran.  I've watched it on my radar and seen it with my own eyes.

Taxis?  There might as well be a bridge.  It's getting me wondering...just how much "moderate", capitalistic "trickle" is getting into Iran via Dubai?  Have we all been missing something fundamental happening?
 
The thing that fascinates me most is how even in the most "dirigiste" or "communist" societies "capitalism" drives the economy.  Back in the days of the old Soviet Union, where the planned economy failed people lined up to get excess amounts of toilet paper to trade for toothpaste to trade for shoes. 

Capitalism, like some other stuff, happens - no matter what governments decree.  Even here in Canada we have the grey market the government tries to ignore/come to grips with.  And I am pretty sure that you must of found one or two "horse-traders" in Bosnia and Afghanistan.  They even have them in France I am told.

If there is a way to make money people will find it.  And you sparking up Dubai there, frankly I didn't put 2 and 2 together the way that you did.....  I have to believe that people visiting Dubai from Iran are taking back a different view.  After all the Iranian kids around Tehran are apparently heading for the hills on the weekends to get away from the Mullahs and do what boys and girls do.

Ultimately something similar contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.  The only people the USSR could send abroad as spies and provocateurs were people close to the top.  They were the only ones that could be trusted.  However once they got to the West it was hard to convince themselves that the USSR was a workers' paradise. 

Unfortunately that strategy takes time - on the other hand it may be less costly in military hardware (cheaper to keep them parked than to run them) and someone is likely to be able to turn a profit at the same time. ;D
 
Market forces and the "Invisible Hand" will always find means of manifesting themselves. Just looking around here in Canada you can see such stunning examples as the "perverse incentives" in health care which make the desired outcome a patient dieing, preferably before they actually get expensive treatments, rather than actually doing something to make the person better.

What we consider the black or grey markets and corruption are just other expressions of market forces working around (or sometimes through) the system in order to satisfy supply and demand.

Sadly, despite five thousand years of recorded history and examples in almost every place you care to look, there are still (and apparently always will be) people who believe "up" is "down" and will attempt to upset the applecart of free expression, free choice and free markets in the name of Socialism, the "Revolution", "Social Justice", God, Allah, Zeus or whatever other term is the fancy of the day. Alas, the outcome of these fantasies are also always the same:

If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.

And this, more than anything else, is the reason we must fight and win at home and abroad.
 
Arthur:

On the sunny side of your dismal image - stamping is a transitory act - if you want to do it forever you keep having to repeat yourself - for some reason the face just will not stay stamped, even according to your own examples.

So, if you want a vision of the future, imagine a human face - forever.  And no doubt somebody, somewhere will take up the task of stamping on it.  He'll go away though, maybe with a bit of help - just like all the others.
 
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