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first annual Nanos "Mood of Canada" Poll

GAP

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The first annual Nanos "Mood of Canada" Poll shows 65.8 percent of Canadians believe the country is heading in the right direction, while only 20.2 percent believe Canada is moving in the wrong direction, and 14 percent didn't know.
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The survey will be published annually in the year-end double issue of Policy Options. The poll of 1,004 Canadians, conducted November 6 to 8, by telephone is accurate to within a margin of 3.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.

Looking forward from the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2008, when we asked Canadians whether the economy would become stronger or weaker in the next year, there was a striking degree of optimism. By a margin of 2 to 1, Canadians think the economy will get stronger. Half of all Canadians, 49.3 percent, think the economy will get stronger over the next year, while only 19.8 percent believe it will get weaker. One Canadian in four, 24.9 percent, thinks there will be no change.

The Prime Minister and his government get very high marks from Canadians. The Harper government gets a very good rating from 10.1 percent of the voters, and a good one from 29.4 percent. Another 38.1 percent give the government an average report card, while only 9 percent give it poor performance marks, and 9.4 percent rate it as very poor. However, there is a continuing caution for Prime Minister Harper in the voting intention numbers, as measured in other Nanos polls, as well as in those by other public opinion research firms.  The Conservatives continue to be unable to cross the threshold of a majority, largely due to a gender gap and the resilience of the Liberal Party brand in Ontario. These are strong reasons for Harper to approach any election scenario with caution.
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GAP said:
The survey will be published annually in the year-end double issue of Policy Options. The poll of 1,004 Canadians, conducted November 6 to 8, by telephone is accurate to within a margin of 3.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.

Not to split hairs, but how is a poll of less than .0003 percent of our national population able to be accurate by any means?
 
JBoyd said:
Not to split hairs, but how is a poll of less than .0003 percent of our national population able to be accurate by any means?

The +/- 3.1% 19 times out of 20 is definitely at the low end of poll accuracy. The document also takes too many liberties in stating facts about the results from the sample and applying them to the whole population. The use of a 10th of a percent column in the figures in various tables is also questionable given the low accuracy of the poll. Gives a false sense of accuracy as this column is in effect directly counting responses for a sample size so close to 1000.

Good: X in Y Canadians polled gave Z rating. <-- fact
Bad: Y in Y Candians give Z rating. <-- inference with less accuracy
Real bad: xx.x% of Canadians give a Z rating or better.
 
No different than any other poll. None are really accurate and only prove out what the originator's intended foregone conclusion was anyway. Nothing to break a sweat over.
 
WRT the statistics of polling accuracy, fill yer boots: http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/ppc/section3/ppc333.htm
 
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