Georgia and the Russian invasions/annexations/Lebensraum (2008 & 2015)

[Colin Parkinson]

I wonder why the Gerogian Forces did not bypass the city, surruonrd it and cut it off, also setting up blocking positions against any Russian relief effort? At which point they could move into the city carefully and slowly gaining international support and making any Russian attempts costly and unprovoked?

 

[armyca08]

I think you forget there's not only innocent civilians in SO, there is a militia sponsored by Russia that has been fighting and launching attacks against Georgia. Georgia was being attacked early August and responded to that. Just because Russia granted them passports doesn't mean that territory now belongs to Russia. It is still Georgian territory. The situation is much more complex than you think, you should read some of the backgrounders on cfr.org and jamestown to get a feel for the situation and not just go off what you see in the news.

Yah, however Georgia has been fighting with that militia since 1991 and the territory has never de facto been Georgian territory - the areas were amalgamated into the Georgian S.S.R. back in the days of the USSR and arn't actually historically Georgian areas.  Georgia Seperated/declared independance from Russia/USSR in what 1991 and the territories such as South Ossetia declared independance also in 1991, and a seperate government was set up. In Mid July Georgia blocked a humanitarian convoy.. which in part may have been the reason for any actions.. but it will all be a you did this I did that.. the fact is South Ossetia isn't recognized by the West.. as such Georgia did burn georgian villages from a western standpoint and extrajudicially murdered its own citizens (not just members of the militia but people who specifically had Russian Citizenship/passports - if you don't accept Russia's claims... even more dispicable if you ask me.
But they did have legal Russian Citizenship.. the gave out passports like candy is rhetoric.. granting citizeship is granting citizenship.. doesn't matter how it happens.. if it happens it is legal if it occurs legally.. end of story.


(also my typos are done by little green men)

 

[lennoj]

not yet, no, any day though sir (joke)

Right...

Back on track

What would be interesting to see in the coming months is whether or not Russia will come out swinging lobbying to have SO recognized as a sovereign state or if Russia will annex the state itself via UN conventions…The other thing to see, is if this recent conflict has trumped Georgia’s chances of becoming a NATO member, due to Georgia not having full control over its boarders/territory, or if NATO will cease this opportunity in order to piss Russia off?

 

[meni0n]

The only reason those passports were given out was to have a foothold in Georgian territory and to have a pretext to defend its citizens. Since no international body recognizes SO independance, it is then Georgian until, it is recognized otherwise. Russia pushing out into Georgian from Abkhazia shows they are not there to protect anyone but to look after their own interests. The fact they had a lot of forces amassed at the borders of SO and Abkhazia shows this wasn't a surprise to Russia and they knew what they were doing all along.

 

[armyca08]

I wonder why the Gerogian Forces did not bypass the city, surruonrd it and cut it off, also setting up blocking positions against any Russian relief effort? At which point they could move into the city carefully and slowly gaining international support and making any Russian attempts costly and unprovoked?

They were too busy retreating to the capital russia said they had no intentions of advancing on. What would you do against over 500 russian tanks and 30,000 personnel?

Although there have been small skirmishes.. total lethality is being reported against the Georgians.. due to Russian Mechanization me thinks. :blotto:

Bear in mind the Russians have aircraft. Air Superioirty = pawn picking (and yah it'll be costly regardless of Georgians being effective in geurilla operations... they need diplomacy or western backing.. eg. Turkey. Which doesn't seem likely since the West can probably get from Russia what they can get from Georgia.. it's already costing multi millions of dollars --- what is georgias GDP actually fairly large at 20 Billion.


The US has air bases in Turkey I'm geussing - or did.  I'm geussing they are having fun at Incirlik - .. none the less... it is diplomacy or bust.. other than a regime change what is in the cards.. Russia seem to just be letting on they are disarming Georgia any intention beyond that who knows.. just a question if the west spends a few billion more to rearm them.

 

[Kirkhill]

Stalinist Forced Relocation Policies

I wouldn't get overly concerned about passports and citizenship in that part of the world when it comes to Casus Belli.  There is a particular irony that most of the "Russians" currently in "Gyurzia" were probably deposited there by that great Georgian Communist, Uncle Joe.

 

[oligarch]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o98uyHb1c6U

 

[TacticalW]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o98uyHb1c6U

I see no proof of any atrocities or any of these claims, it's just a recycled speech on what the Russian media is feeding its citizens. Only a few things there were valid. Now we're in the biased territory of the other side, he failed to mention any of the possible reasons why Russia may be at fault in this and not Georgia. I wonder if he's even heard of the parts that may make Russia look not so Innocent.

Once the investigations are completed we'll see what turns up, but even then you have to look at Russia's aggressive actions leading up to this. They don't even know if those atrocities actually happened and now they're deep inside of Georgia racking up collateral damage despite this. A little late to call in the investigators don't yah think, a full scale war is on and Georgia is being pummeled.

 

[vonGarvin]

Russia halts military action in Georgia
"Russia's president has ordered a halt to his country's military action in Georgia over the conflict in South Ossetia.
"The security of our peacekeepers and civilians has been restored," Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday in a nationally televised statement. "The aggressor has been punished and suffered very significant losses."
Medvedev also ordered Russia's military in the region to squelch any further Georgian resistance.
"If there are any emerging hotbeds of resistance or any aggressive actions, you should take steps to destroy them," he told his defence minister at a Kremlin meeting.
Sergey Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, repeated his government's call that Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili had "better go" as Moscow won't talk with him.
Those statements came as France's President Nicolas Sarkozy heads to Moscow to negotiate a truce over the conflict involving Georgia, Russia and two breakaway regions -- South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Georgia launched military action in South Ossetia on Thursday.
South Ossetia broke with Georgia in 1992 and has run its own affairs ever since. Russia has issued passports to many South Ossetians.
In response to Georgia's actions, Russia dispatched its military. Russian soldiers and tanks have pushed into Georgian territory as part of its retaliation."

Georgia wants more evidence of Russian military halt
"MOSCOW (Reuters) - Georgia needs more evidence of a Russian halt to military operations and will remain "prepared for everything" until Moscow signs a peace deal, Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze told Reuters on Tuesday.
"We will need more evidence, everyone in this situation needs a signed binding agreement," Gurgenidze told Reuters by telephone from an extraordinary meeting of parliament.
"Until that happens we are mobilised, we are prepared for everything," he said. "I do appreciate it (Medvedev's gesture) ... but there has been more damage to infrastructure and civilian casualties today."

 

[Navy_Blue]

Other than a larger than normal number of "Russian citezens" in South Ossetia what is the strategic importance to the area.  I understand the argument that they wanted to secure the situation for the peace keepers in the area (which really is no different than what we would do).  It just seems like a waste of time to annex this strip of land.  Is it just really loud saber rattling?  If they are shown or are able to convince there people they were right to have done this it would be a big moral boost for the Russians.  "Look our military is still viable and good.  We helped our poor brothers in South Ossetia."  I see it undermining NATO and the west for the Georgians because they are all asking why have the Americans not helped us?? and where was NATO??  If you think long term this could bring more support for Russia.  Why join an alliance that is not able or to scared to protect you??  The way this is Spinning the Russians are looking to be the White Knights here.  CNN can say all it wants about the evil Russians because most of the Georgians and Russians are probably not listening. 

 

[GAP]

The whole exercise is a message......(to all surrounding states that are considering wandering away from Russia's umbrella)

From Russia.....if you think the west is going to come to your aid....check out what happens when we do this.....

Did they come.....no?....gosh.....maybe you should consider closer ties to those that are near and dear.....

 

[armyca08]

One thing I find sorta funny is that - this area is where Russia proposed the alternative early warning sites, rather than the Ukraine.

Georgia won't recognize the independance of the areas - they are fighting against them - they are pro Russian - Georgia is trying to join NATO - once it does - can Russia actually continue aiding the seperatists or would that be a breach of the common defence clause of NATO - would all be lost?

I think in large part it is that Russia has been there for a long time, the  areas voted on seperation and had a 95% civilian backing for succession from Georgia but Georgia won't recognize it - for that matter most of the world won't. Simply put the people are dissenfranchised and under attack by a majority group. Russia really is helping their little brothers.

Not much more to the story. - however the press is still totally ignoring that Russia proposed the original ceasefire on the 9th or 10th with the UN security council that other members rejected and added stipulations to - thus all this Russia denied a ceasefire stuff reads as total rhetoric - even though it did it is making it seem like the western ceasefire was the only one proposed and the first proposed - not true. Also I find them totally pumping bushes role in threatening Georgia - I tend to think the EU's stance was a critical factor - not  the US stance - as it was likely to be expected anyway.


I fnd it funny Harper denounces Russia after the ceasefire is called.

 

[Snafu-Bar]

Harper's call for a ceasefire was done and reported before Russia ceased hostilities.

 

[meni0n]

armyca08, I cannot find anywhere that Russia proposed any kind of cease-fire on the 9th, 10th. I did find :

" Khalilzad disclosed during a U.N. Security Council session that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Sunday morning "that a democratically elected president of Georgia — and I quote — must go." "

Can you post a source for when Russia proposed a cease-fire?

 

[oligarch]

armyca08, I cannot find anywhere that Russia proposed any kind of cease-fire on the 9th, 10th. I did find :

" Khalilzad disclosed during a U.N. Security Council session that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Sunday morning "that a democratically elected president of Georgia — and I quote — must go." "

Can you post a source for when Russia proposed a cease-fire?

Read the UNSC meetings or watch them its their entirety. I don't know where you can do so for free but I'm certain its possible. Russian envoy to the UNSC V.Churkin has made clear the Russian conditions for a cease fire.

 

[tomahawk6]

The Russians want nothing less than the departure of the Georgian government and a pro-Moscow government installed to replace them. This is the future for any government that gets too close to the west.

 

[oligarch]

I see no proof of any atrocities or any of these claims, it's just a recycled speech on what the Russian media is feeding its citizens. Only a few things there were valid. Now we're in the biased territory of the other side, he failed to mention any of the possible reasons why Russia may be at fault in this and not Georgia. I wonder if he's even heard of the parts that may make Russia look not so Innocent.

Once the investigations are completed we'll see what turns up, but even then you have to look at Russia's aggressive actions leading up to this. They don't even know if those atrocities actually happened and now they're deep inside of Georgia racking up collateral damage despite this. A little late to call in the investigators don't yah think, a full scale war is on and Georgia is being pummeled.

I can just as easily state that I see no proof of Russia being at fault in this and not Georgia. Why would he mention those reasons if they don't exist? Just look at the chronololy of the events.

1990: Ossetians proclaime South Ossetia a Soviet Democratic Republic[18], fully sovereign within the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).
1990: The Georgian Supreme Soviet adopted a law barring regional parties in summer 1990.
1990: South Ossetia hold an election.
1990: The Georgian government headed by Zviad Gamsakhurdia declared their election illegitimate and abolished South Ossetia's autonomous status altogether on 11 December, 1990.
1991: Break-up of the Soviet Union, South Ossetia declaires independence, Abkhazia declaires independence, Georgia decleaires independence including the aforementioned republics
end of 1991: war
1992: The government of Georgia and South Ossetian separatists reached an agreement to avoid the use of force against one another, and Georgia pledged not to impose sanctions against South Ossetia
.... skip to 2008....
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia#1989-2008)
2008 Aug 8: a mass incursion of Georgian troops and armour to a South Ossetian-controlled territory and repeated shelling of Tskhinvali
2008 Aug 8:  Twelve Russian peacekeepers were killed and nearly 150 injured
2008 Aug 8: The Russian Prime-Minister Vladimir Putin said that the Russian Government "condemns the aggressive actions by Georgian troops in South Ossetia" and that Russia would be compelled to retaliate
2008 Aug 8: Heavy fighting was reported in Tskhinvali for most of August 8, with Georgian forces attempting to push Ossetians slowly from the city.[32]
2008 Aug 8: Meanwhile, Russian tanks rolled across the border to aid South Ossetia, and are reported to patrol throughout Tskhinvali.


Now I challenge you to ask yourself, if Canada was peacekeeping in a conflict zone and Canadian peacekeepers came under blatant artilery fire by one of the sides, as well as the fire against the other side you are supposed to be seperating, would you not support a Canadian Forces response and would you even think about blaming the Canadians for the escalation?

 

[oligarch]

With regards to earlier accusations of me "trolling" about the way the media reports these events, I post an article.




RussiaToday: August 12, 2008, 14:45

CNN blamed for using misleading war video

American broadcaster CNN has been accused of using the wrong pictures in their coverage of the conflict in South Ossetia. A Russian cameraman says footage of wrecked tanks and ruined buildings, which was purported to have been filmed in the town of Gori, in fact showed the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali.


Gori was said to be about to fall under the control of the Russian army but the cameraman says the video was actually shot in Tskhinvali, which had been flattened by Georgian shelling.

Aleksandr Zhukov, from the Russiya Al-Yaum channel, said: “When we arrived and news came that Gori was being shelled, I saw my footage. I said: that’s not Gori! That’s Tskhinvali. Having crawled through the length and breadth of Tskhinvali, I don’t need much to tell from which point this or that footage was recorded. I can swear in front of any tribunal. I can point at this location on the map of the town, because I and the cameraman of the Rossiya channel videotaped that.”

 

[tomahawk6]

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08122008...gue_124032.htm

RUSSIA GOES ROGUE

. . . AND AMERICA WIMPS OUT


IT'S impossible to overstate the importance of what's un folding as we watch. Russia's invasion of Georgia - a calculated, unprovoked aggression - is a crisis that may have more important strategic implications than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

We're seeing the emergence of a rogue military power with a nuclear arsenal.
The response of our own government has been pathetic - and our media's uncritical acceptance of Moscow's version of events is infuriating.

This is the "new" Russia announcing - in blood - that it won't tolerate freedom and self-determination along its borders. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is putting it bluntly: Today, Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine (and the Baltic states had better pay attention).
Georgia's affiliation with the European Union, its status as a would-be NATO member, its working democracy - none of it deterred Putin.

Nor does Putin's ambition stop with the former Soviet territories. His air force has been trying (unsuccessfully) to hit the new gas pipeline running from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. The Kremlin is telling Europe: We not only have the power to turn off Siberian gas, we can turn off every tap in the region, any time we choose.

Let's be clear: For all that US commentators and diplomats are still chattering about Russia's "response" to Georgia's actions, the Kremlin spent months planning and preparing this operation. Any soldier above the grade of private can tell you that there's absolutely no way Moscow could've launched this huge ground, air and sea offensive in an instantaneous "response" to alleged Georgian actions.
As I pointed out Saturday, even to get one armored brigade over the Caucasus Mountains required extensive preparations. Since then, Russia has sent in the equivalent of almost two divisions - not only in South Ossetia, the scene of the original fighting, but also in separatist Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast.

The Russians also managed to arrange the instant appearance of a squadron of warships to blockade Georgia. And they launched hundreds of air strikes against preplanned targets.

Every one of these things required careful preparations. In the words of one US officer, "Just to line up the airlift sorties would've taken weeks."
Working through their mercenaries in South Ossetia, Russia staged brutal provocations against Georgia from late July onward. Last Thursday, Georgia's president finally had to act to defend his own people.
But when the mouse stirred, the cat pounced.
The Russians know that we know this was a setup. But Moscow's Big Lie propagandists still blame Georgia - even as Russian aircraft bomb Georgian homes and Russian troops seize the vital city of Gori in the country's heart. And Russian troops also grabbed the Georgian city of Zugdidi to the west - invading from Abkhazia on a second axis.

Make no mistake: Moscow intends to dismember Georgia.
This is the most cynical military operation by a "European" power since Moscow invaded Afghanistan in 1979. (Sad to say, President Bush seems as bewildered now as President Jimmy Carter did then.)
This attack's worse, though. Georgia is an independent, functioning democracy tied to the European Union and striving to join NATO. It also has backed our Iraq efforts with 2,000 troops. (We're airlifting them back home.)
This invasion recalls Hitler's march into Czechoslovakia - to protect ethnic Germans, he claimed, just as Putin claims to be protecting Russian citizens - complete BS.
It also resembles Hitler's invasion of Poland - with the difference that, in September '39, European democracies drew the line. (To France's credit, its leaders abandoned their August vacations to call Putin out - only Sen. Barack Obama remains on the beach.)

Yet our media give Putin the benefit of the doubt. Not one major news outlet even bothers to take issue with Putin's wild claim that the Georgians were engaged in genocide.
I lack sufficiently powerful words to express my outrage over Russia's bloody cynicism in attacking a small, free people, or to castigate our media for their inane coverage - or to condemn our own government's shameful flight from responsibility.
Just as Moscow has reverted to its old habit of sending in tanks to snuff out freedom, Washington has defaulted to form by abandoning Georgia to the invasion - after encouraging Georgia to stand up to the Kremlin.

Reminds me of 1956, when we encouraged the Hungarians to defy Moscow - then abandoned them. And of 1991, when we prodded Iraq's Shia to rise up against Saddam - then abandoned them. We've called Georgia a "friend and ally." Well, honorable men and states stand by their friends and allies. We haven't.
Oh, we sure are giving those Russians a tongue-lashing. I'll bet Putin's just shaking as he faces the awesome verbal rage of Condi Rice. President Bush? He went to a basketball game.
The only decent thing we've done was to reveal, at the UN, that the Russians tried to cut a deal with us to remove Georgia's president.
Shame on us.
Ralph Peters' latest book, "Looking for Trouble," details his own adventures in Georgia.

THE BEAR'S MILITARY MESS
RUSSIA's military is succeeding in its invasion of Georgia, but only because Moscow has applied overwhelming force.

This campaign was supposed to be the big debut for the Kremlin's revitalized armed forces (funded by the country's new petro-wealth). Well, the new Russian military looks a lot like the old Russian military: slovenly and not ready for prime time.

It can hammer tiny Georgia into submission - but this campaign unintentionally reveals plenty of enduring Russian weaknesses.

The most visible failings are those of the air force. Flying Moscow's latest ground-attack jets armed with the country's newest precision weapons, pilots are missing far more targets than they're hitting.

All those strikes on civilian apartment buildings and other non-military targets? Some may be intentional (the Russians aren't above terror-bombing), but most are just the result of ill-trained pilots flying scared.
They're missing pipelines, rail lines and oil-storage facilities - just dumping their bombs as quickly as they can and heading home.

Russia's also losing aircraft. The Kremlin admits two were shot down; the Georgians claimed they'd downed a dozen by Sunday. Split the difference, and you have seven or more Russian aircraft knocked out of the sky by a tiny enemy. Compare that to US Air Force losses - statistically zero - in combat in all of our wars since Desert Storm.

As one US officer observed to me, the Russian pilots are neither professionally nor emotionally toughened for their missions. Their equipment's pretty good (not as good as ours), but their training lags - and their pilots log far fewer flight hours than ours do.
Russia has been planning and organizing this invasion for months. And they're pulling it off - but the military's embarrassing blunders must be infuriating Prime Minister Putin.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think GAP has it about right.

Strategically, Russia has sent a big, strong message to all its neighbours saying that:

• We matter! We are big and powerful and we are willing and able to do pretty much as we please in our own sphere of influence;

• The Americans may be a hyper-power but they are fully extended and they are unwilling to extend themselves further in Europe;

• The European Union is big, rich, soft and impotent; and

• NATO is a paper tiger.

Not everyone will read this message in quite the same way, however.

America may well want to push back and America can drum up considerable anti-Russia sentiment, some of which will, surely, leak into policy throughout the West and in Asia, too.

China will push back, too – but neither so quickly nor as obviously as America. It is the Chinese pushback that will, I think, do the most severe and long lasting damage to Russia.

The Russians have also confirmed their historical political culture of thuggishness – and that, to, is a message in and of itself. We (the West, China and India) are not dealing with a state that acts and reacts as ‘we’ do. The Russians, like most schoolyard bullies, understand that swift brutality is a useful tactic. It is not clear, yet, if they have also learned the lesson that ‘we’ can be provoked to an extent that our only acceptable outcome is a complete, crushing victory.