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Georgia and the Russian invasions/annexations/Lebensraum (2008 & 2015)

Heh.... aren't we suddenly back to that old book.... "Killing ground" about Quebec Independance.... where the US invades - as Peacekeepers no less...
 
Kirkhill said:
Just as a modest interjection -  I don't believe that the question of military superiority relies on whether the Tusk can "take" the Black Eagle or whatever it is currently called.  As I have stated before all warfare is assymetric.  Rock vs Rock, Knight vs Knight, Tank vs Tank is a recipe for a stalemate - a "do-over".    Rock is defeated by paper.  Knights were defeated by arrows (and then bullets).  The Tank will be defeated by .......?????
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Appache helicopters were one of the touted "tank killers". Ultimately Precision guided bombs have the ultimate advantage. I am currious as to the effects of "camaflouge, and conceilment on image guided bombs.  EG. if a picture of tank is input, what if the tank were dressed up in a tank halter? Would the image guided bomb be effecitve? Or if for a larger area, what about ready made inflatablebuildings that are changed hourly? I'm geussing the systems can't be fooled that easily.  Those system have definate advantages, perhaps that is why Russia is assisting Syria with AntiAir defence systems.



I don't think the Russians have much reason to be confident that their arsenal will work as they hope.
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It working as effectively as they would like, probably won't be that much of a determinant on the ongoing consequences of large scale nuclear exchange. Although perhaps global warming would be less on the political agenda after the fact so not all loss for the right wing industrialists in the G8.
 
Better yet Que. minority government declares itself independent
and starts expelling non French Canadians and attacking Federal
facilities also interfering  with seaway traffic.The Canadian forces
move into Que.and a few skirmishes take place.The UN gets involved
and calls for peacekeepers,as there are no takers, the US fills the gap.
After a while they start training a Que. militia who start pressuring
English Canadians and other groups who resist separation to leave, also
starts minor incursions over Ontario and New Brunswick border,
the US peacekeepers do nothing.Britain,Australia and New Zealand
send equipment and instructors to help expand Canadas Armed Forces.
I forgot to mention that the UN agreement forced Canada to pull its
troops out of Quebec.
How would we react?
                        Regards
 
Kirkhill said:
Just as a modest interjection -  I don't believe that the question of military superiority relies on whether the Tusk can "take" the Black Eagle or whatever it is currently called. 
Click to expand...

Just for the record...the Black Eagle doesn't exist except in a wooden mock-up made for an arms expo in the late 90's.

Some people out there wearing tinfoil hats are perpetuating the myth of it actually being adopted and deployed.

Regards
 
Russians halt Nato co-operation


Russia has told Nato it is halting all military co-operation, the bloc says, as the crisis over Georgia deepens.
The Russian move follows a statement by Nato that there would be no "business as usual" with Moscow unless its troops pulled out of Georgia.
However, the alliance had stopped short of freezing co-operation with Moscow.
Meanwhile, a top Russian general said that the withdrawal of the bulk of Russia's troops would be complete in about 10 days.
Gen Vladimir Boldyrev, commander of the Russian ground forces in the region, referred to the pullout of troops "sent to reinforce Russian peacekeepers" in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia.
It was not immediately clear how Gen Boldyrev's comments would fit in with a previous Russian commitment to withdraw its forces to behind a buffer zone around South Ossetia by the end of Friday.

Moscow has said it intends to keep some 500 troops in what it called a "zone of responsibility" as part of a peacekeeping mission.
In a separate development, South Ossetia and Abkhazia - another Georgian breakaway region - held mass rallies calling for independence.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow's response to their pleas would depend on the conduct of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.
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More on link.

-Dead
 
Putin is creating a very dangerous climate in Europe. Putin wins if the EU/NATO limits their reaction to talk. He will move into one country after another as long as NATO does nothing. Putin seems intent on getting control over the pipeline that has its terminus in Turkey to either shut it down or control it. We have to take Putins threats at face value. He has threatened Poland who is a NATO ally maybe we should move one of our divisons from Germany into Poland ? So far the Russians arent leaving Georgia how can we encourage them to do so ? Today a USN DDG and a Coast Guard Cutter transited into the Black Sea bound for Georgia on a humanitarian mission. This is a good move. Another would be to deploy a couple of heavy brigades in Georgia and start flying CAP over Georgia from Turkey.It would be nice to get Turkey to be more pro-active because a resurgent Russia isnt in their best interest.
 
More details on the last update:

stars and stripes

NAPLES, Italy — The U.S. Navy has dispatched a ship to deliver humanitarian aid to war-torn Georgia and is preparing two others to transit the Black Sea to deliver supplies, Navy officials said.

Late Wednesday, the guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul left Souda Bay, Crete, loaded with 40 pallets of baby food, diapers, hygiene items and milk. Another 32 pallets contained paper plates, toilet paper, plastic tableware and bottled water.

Within the next day or two, the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Dallas — which until recently had been in the Gulf of Guinea as part of the Navy’s Africa Partnership Station program — will head to Georgia, followed by the amphibious command and control ship USS Mount Whitney by month’s end, said Cmdr. Scott Miller, spokesman for Naval Forces Europe/6th Fleet, headquartered in Naples...
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Here are some links to various reports concerning the Georgia crisis. I had planned on posting them some time ago, but I just never got around to it (sorry excuse I know).  The items up are from the International Crisis Group . The ICG is one of those advocacy groups dedicated to conflict resolutions. I've found their reports very interesting in that they actually send researchers into the conflict zones to interview the folks on the ground, including combatants, politicians, NGO's and ordinary citizens. You will notice that some of these reports are dated, but i included them any ways because they give a background on the happenings in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The first report is Georgia: Conflict History. This gives a short concise history of not only the South Ossetia problem, but also Abkhazia. 

Georgia: Avoiding War in South Ossetia.  26 November 2004

Abkhazia Today. 15 September 2006

. Georgia/South Ossetia: Make Haste Slowly .7 June 2007

Georgia and Russia: Clashing Over Abkhazia This is the latest report having come out on early June 2008. While it deals with Abkhazia, while doing a quick read I noticed a couple of comments they also apply to S. Ossetia. Take this one from the first page: " Russia has stepped up manipulation of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflicts. Georgia remains determined to restore its territorial integrity, and hawks in Tbilisi are seriously considering a military option."

Here is a second little snippet: "The worrying unpredictability of Georgian actions stems largely from the difficulty of knowing the thought processes of the tight inner circle around President Saakashvili, a group that seems to make its analyses and draw its conclusions in a virtual vacuum. The risk of a rash move is compounded because the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts and the relationship with Russia trigger highly emotional reactions. Saakashvili himself is a volatile personality."

That's all I'll post for the time being. I have some more links to post, but rather than overload everyone I'll wait until tomorrow or the weekend to post them. Enjoy.

 
This is a good move. Another would be to deploy a couple of heavy brigades in Georgia and start flying CAP over Georgia from Turkey.It would be nice to get Turkey to be more pro-active because a resurgent Russia isnt in their best interest.
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Were would the U.S get this heavy brigades?  So we will attack powers just because the are against the interests of the west?  Why should Turkey do the dirty work for U.S? 
 
It is in Turkey's interest to keep Russian tanks as far from their borders as possible.Second the pipeline in Georgia the Russians are threatening has its terminus in Turkey,loss of this pipeline would have a negative effect on Turkish access to oil/gas.
 
Recce By Death said:
Just for the record...the Black Eagle doesn't exist except in a wooden mock-up made for an arms expo in the late 90's.

Some people out there wearing tinfoil hats are perpetuating the myth of it actually being adopted and deployed.

Regards
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Thanks for the clarification RBD.  Cheers.
 
stegner said:
Were would the U.S get this heavy brigades?  So we will attack powers just because the are against the interests of the west?   Why should Turkey do the dirty work for U.S? 
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1) THESE as opposed to this Heavy Brigades.

2) The US has virtually no heavy units deployed in Iraq or Afghan these days...

Why -- well Abrams and Bradleys are not the best for COIN.  Yes they have some - but very few - and those that are here very rarely go out and about. 


The Russians had armed militias stirring the pot to provoke Georgia -- they relied on the fact that either Georgia would react and then they could smash into Georgia, or they would force Georgians from the regions and thereby easily swallow them into Mother Russia.
  Yes Georgia reacted rashly - but they where provoked.

American helo pilots are gaining thousands of flying ours in combat, the units are getting very slick with CAS, Casevac is supurb.  While America may not want to comitt -- they do have the forces, and those forces are ready.

As for quantity over quality -- I will go for quality every day.


IF Russia truly was just "peacekeeping" are restoring order - they never would have smashed into Georgia, they where sending a message.

A message the world needs to listen to -- and act against.

 
Read an article in the paper this morning.  It would appear that South Ossetians have grabbed additional territory that was clearly Georgian before this dust-up.  SO militias have set up roadblocks.... behind a protective screen of nice Russian peacekeepers.
 
geo said:
Read an article in the paper this morning.  It would appear that South Ossetians have grabbed additional territory that was clearly Georgian before this dust-up.  SO militias have set up roadblocks.... behind a protective screen of nice Russian peacekeepers.
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BINGO

Imagine who gave them the balls to try that one?

 
This is hilarious... apparently Russia's withdrawal is complete! Except for the 2500 "peacekeeper" troops inside Georgia, the attack helicopters, APC's, etc, etc that Russia says will remain in Georgia for the foreseeable future to man checkpoints and buffer zones throughout Georgia (both provinces and Georgia proper). A few snippets from the article:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7576556.stm

"Earlier, the deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, Gen Anatoly Nogovitsyn, said that more than 2,500 "peacekeeping" troops with armoured cars and helicopters would remain inside Georgia for the foreseeable future. "

"The commander of US forces in Europe, Gen John Craddock, said earlier that Russia was taking too long to withdraw, and added "if they are moving, it is at a snail's pace". "

"The Georgian government has denounced the move as unacceptable."

"The White House said checkpoints and buffer zones were "definitely not part of the agreement", and called for an immediate withdrawal of Russian troops."
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Now we see if Russia really has taken a bigger bite then they can really handle:

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=D4FABFB0-74CC-43DC-BFC3-1C053820492C

Putin's Next Domino
By Kathy Shaidle
FrontPageMagazine.com | Friday, August 22, 2008

As soon as the U.S. and Poland signed their long awaited missile defense pact on August 20 (a deal recently reported in FrontPage), the Kremlin issued a sinister threat reminiscent of its old Cold War rhetoric.

The deal places 10 missile defense interceptors on Polish territory, 115 miles from the Russian border. The missiles are designed to deter and, if necessary, defeat an Iranian attack, not to attack the former Soviet Union. But the Russians don't believe that.

Hours after the signing, Russia's Foreign Ministry described the new base as "one of the instruments in an extremely dangerous bundle of American military projects involving the one-sided development of a global missile shield system." The Foreign Ministry insisted that the interceptors don't have "any target other than Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles," and issued a veiled threat: "In this case Russia will be forced to react, and not only through diplomatic" channels.

A few days earlier, Deputy Chief of Staff General Anatoly Nogovitsyn had warned, "Poland, by deploying [the system] is exposing itself to [nuclear] attack, one hundred percent."

Earlier, the chief of Russia's strategic missile command suggested aiming nuclear missiles at Poland, while Vladimir Putin himself has warned Poland's neighbor that "Russia will have to point its warheads at Ukrainian territory" if Ukraine joined NATO.

In Poland to sign the aggreement, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice dismissed any suggestion that the new system represents a threat to Russia, and denounced General Nogovitsyn's threat.

Comments like this "border on the bizarre, frankly," said Rice, adding, "The Russians are losing their credibility." "Missile defense, of course, is aimed at no one," Rice futher explained. "It is in our defense that we do this."

"It's also the case that when you threaten Poland, you perhaps forget that it is not 1988," Rice continued. "It's 2008 and the United States has a ... firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland's territory as if it was the territory of the United States. So it's probably not wise to throw these threats around."

Perhaps, but Russia seems eager to turn back the clock, to a time when it was the United States' most feared enemy, and not merely a nation among others.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Gabriel Schoenfeld reports that, like the United States since the end of the Cold War,

Russia has also reduced the size of its tactical nuclear arsenal, but starting from much higher levels and at a slower pace, leaving it with an estimated 5,000 such devices -- 10 times the number of tactical weapons held by the U.S. Such a disparity would be one thing if we were contending with a stable, postcommunist regime moving in the direction of democracy and integration with the West. That was the Russia we anticipated when we began our nuclear build-down. But it is not the Russia we are facing today. (...)

As in the Cold War, nuclear weapons are central to the Russian geopolitical calculus. "The weak are not loved and not heard, they are insulted, and when we have [nuclear] parity they will talk to us in a different way." These words are not from the dark days of communist yore. Rather, they were uttered last year by Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, and they perfectly capture the mentality we and Russia's neighbors are up against.

In other words, the Kremlin has the hardware to back up their bluster. In recent months, the Russians have sent bombers on sorties along the Alaskan coast, and have threatened to station nuclear weapons in Cuba in response to the U.S. Poland pact.

Because Russia is the world's second largest oil producer, its newest threats helped oil prices shoot up to $115 a barrel on Wednesday. The situation was compounded by Russia's recent invasion of Georgia, which threatened to disrupt important regional pipelines. The price of gold, which has historically risen and fell in unison with international tensions, also rose yesterday due to "increasing geopolitical risk." One veteran market observer analyzed the situation on Thursday and issued a distressing prediction:

Venezuela, Syria and Iran are aligning themselves with Russia. President Assad has said that Israeli assistance to Georgia shows that Russia and Syria should bolster military cooperation. Venezuela's Chavez is also aligning himself with the Russians. Chavez said at the weekend that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev wanted to send a Russian naval fleet to visit Venezuela and that the Russians naval fleet would be welcome in Venezuela. Venezuela has been seeking closer relations with Moscow, in part to buy military hardware, including 24 Russian Sukhoi fighter jets recently delivered.

Geopolitical risk is higher now than at any time since the end of the Cold War and looks set to remain heightened in the coming months.

So far, the U.S. and Poland have issued calm yet firm statements in response to the Kremlin's belligerence.  For example, on August 21, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski suggested that the Russians be invited to inspect the new bases on Polish territory.

However, whether or not the two nations and their allies can maintain this sanguine front in the face of Russia's threats of nuclear "payback" remains to be seen.

A blogger since 2000, Kathy Shaidle runs FiveFeetOfFury.com. Her new e-book Acoustic Ladyland has been called a "must read" by Mark Steyn.
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Throttling their ramshackle economy is the safest and surest means of defanging Russia (nukes or not. The vast amount of military hardware was totally for naught when the Wall fell; and indeed was the anchor weight that dragged the USSR down). Edward Campbell has posted on this, so there is no need to repeat it (scroll back).
 
http://www.military.com/news/article/us-trainers-georgian-troops-werent-ready.html?col=1186032325324

US Trainers: Georgian Troops Weren't Ready
August 19, 2008
Associated Press

TBILISI, Georgia - U.S. military trainers - the only American boots on the ground here - say the Georgian soldiers they knew who were sent to battle the Russians had fighting spirit but were not ready for war.

The Georgians were "beginning to walk, but by no means were they running," said Army Capt. Jeff Barta, who helped train a Georgian brigade for peacekeeping service in Iraq. "If that was a U.S. brigade it would not have gone into combat."

Now on standby at the Sheraton Hotel, unarmed and in civilian clothes, six of the American trainers offered a glimpse at the 5-year-old U.S. mission and at the performance of the outnumbered and outgunned Georgian military in its defeat by Russia.

The Americans arrived for work Aug. 7 to unexpectedly find training was over for the unit they had been assigned to for three weeks, the 4th Brigade: The Georgian soldiers were sitting on their rucksacks and singing folk songs as an Orthodox priest walked among them chanting and waving incense.

Then buses and trucks took the troops off toward Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia, where there had been sporadic clashes and shelling during the previous week. That night the Georgian army began an offensive trying to retake the Russian-supported region, and by the following morning hundreds of Russian tanks were rolling across the border.

"From what I've heard, a lot of the 4th Brigade was hit pretty hard," said Rachel Dejong, 24, a Navy medic.

The Georgian company commander who was training alongside Barta was killed.

"Some of the soldiers seemed really grateful for the things we taught them," said Barta, 31, but he acknowledged it was not nearly enough.

Trainers start with the basics of infantry warfare - shooting, taking cover, advancing - then on to squad and platoon maneuvers, Barta said.

The Georgians do not lack "warrior spirit," he said, but added that they weren't ready for combat.

They inherited bad habits from the Red Army, whose soldiers wouldn't move without a direct order from a superior, and need to be taught to think on their own, Barta said. To make things more difficult, many soldiers "come from the hills of Georgia, and some of them sign for their paycheck with an X," he said.

The Georgian army has five regular infantry brigades, each with some 2,000 troops. Only one of them - the 1st, which was rushed home from Iraq by U.S. planes after fighting broke out - has been trained to a NATO level.

There are also units of poorly trained reservists, Georgian men who do 18 days of one-time military training and then eight days a year into their 40s. Officially, the government says it has 37,000 regular soldiers and 100,000 reservists.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, some of the American trainers spoke bluntly about problems with the Georgian troops, who one veteran sergeant said "got torn up real bad."

The Americans were training them to use the U.S. military's M-4 rifles, he said. But when fighting broke out, the Georgians went back to the Soviet AK-47, the only weapon they trusted. They appeared incapable of firing single shots, instead letting off bursts of automatic fire, which is wildly inaccurate and wastes ammunition, he said.

Another problem was communications: As soon as combat began, the army's communications network largely collapsed, he said, so troops conducted operations using regular cell phones. That left their communications easily accessible to Russian intelligence.

"Were they ready to go? The answer is no," the sergeant said.

The U.S. trainers come from different branches of the military: Marines, Army, Navy and special forces. Most have combat experience in Iraq or Afghanistan. At the moment, according to the trainers, there are fewer than 100 of them in the country.

Officially their job is to get the Georgians ready to serve in Iraq, where the country has maintained a 2,000-man contingent.

Unofficially, some of the trainers acknowledge, the program hopes to give the U.S. a more robust ally on Russia's border in a country that houses a vital oil pipeline.

The Americans aren't the only ones here. Georgian corporals and sergeants train with Germans, alpine units and the navy work with French instructors, and special operations and urban warfare troops are taught by Israelis, said Georgia's deputy defense minister, Batu Kutelia.

While the U.S. mission is specifically aimed at getting troops ready for Iraq, the "overall goal is to bring Georgia up to NATO standards," Kutelia said in an interview at the Defense Ministry on Sunday.

This former Soviet republic has allied itself with the West and has hopes of joining NATO, ambitions that Russia has seen as a challenge to its influence and security.

Kutelia said Georgian troops who had trained with the Americans and other foreign forces - about half of the military - performed better in the war than those who didn't.

It isn't clear how many Georgian units actually had a chance to put what they learned into practice.

One Georgian officer who returned from the front said the army succumbed not to one-on-one combat but to overwhelming Russian air power. The officer, who appeared shaken by what he saw, showed photographs of Georgian military jeeps destroyed from the air, the bodies of their occupants lying bloated on the road.

He would not give his name because he was not authorized to speak to journalists.

Barta, the Army captain, said of the company he was training: "I know specifically that Bravo Company, I'm sure, and I hope from what I did for them, that they're better off than they would have been if this happened four weeks ago."

An independent Georgian military expert, Koba Liklikadze, said the U.S. training was not a deciding factor, attributing the army's loss to bad decisions by the government. Georgia declared a cease-fire too soon, he said, which demoralized the troops before most of them had a chance to fight.

"It was not an absolutely decisive factor whether Georgians were trained by Americans or not," he said. "What happened was due to the political decision of Georgian authorities, and not the performance on the ground."

The U.S. program has been interrupted, and critically damaged, by the war. The Georgian army has been dealt a harsh blow: While official statistics claim 180 fatalities, soldiers and civilians, Liklikadze estimated the number of dead or missing soldiers at 400.

Many Georgian military bases, including the main U.S. training facility at Vasiani, were damaged or destroyed.

The U.S. trainers now lounging at the Tbilisi Sheraton have been relegated to following the situation from the hotel's carpeted halls and glass elevators. They seem eager to either get back to work or leave.

With the future of their mission uncertain, the trainers have been drafted to help the U.S. aid operation that began last week. But it is hard to avoid the impression they would rather be elsewhere.

"I'm not saying that we're suffering here with the one million-thread-count sheets or checking out the local females at the pool," said Capt. Pongpat Piluek, a veteran of the Afghanistan war. "But if our job now is to sit here and put down roots in the couch, I'd rather do it at home."
 
New article in the paper this morning.....
It points out that the Russian Black sea fleet's home port of Sebastopol is in the Ukraine AND the lease comes up sometime in the next 20 years.  Considering the number of retired russian sailors living in Sebastopol, any wager the Ukranian gov't is gonna be thinking about the Russian gov't reaction if the lease isn't renewed....

Ahh... Realpolitik & gunboat diplomacy.... the good old days of the Cold war all over again
 
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