Global decrease in population

[Colin Parkinson]

Watching this video, the first 20 minutes he talks about how global demographics are on the downturn. What is interesting is how fast the rate of decline is in various parts of the world. As the global population shrinks, it might remove some of the historical conflict points and create new ones.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I’m pretty sure that one day the earth will start a process on its own to quickly start shedding itself of people whether we like it or not.

 

[suffolkowner]

saw this on the twitter.
where one doesnt even seem to be the bottom if you look at east asia

 

[ModlrMike]

An interesting data set on the subject: Total Fertility Rate 2025

 

[daftandbarmy]

My money's on India for the long haul...

Population Projections: The World’s Top Countries by 2100

How will the world’s population change by 2100? We explore UN projections for the top 8 countries, highlighting major demographic shifts.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[ytz]

My money's on India for the long haul...

India is already at or below replacement level TFR. They now have headlines like this:

India's fertility rate change sparks alarm

Politician Mohan Bhagwat called on Indian families to have three children each.

www.newsweek.com

And I think that drop will accelerate faster than the current stats capture if their economy gets worse.

As it stands, migration basically provides an outlet and relief for their middle class. It's a country that produces something like 25M graduates a year and only 5M white collar jobs. If migration gets closed off, due to the backlash we are seeing in the West, the competition for those jobs will only intensify in India. You will see even smaller families there. And this is before we even discuss what AI is going to do to white collar work.

I think India will peak in the 2040s.

 

[Kirkhill]

Productivity!

Don't import servants and wage slaves.

Exploit the promise of technology.

 

[ytz]

OECD countries are probably irreversible at this point. Gerontocratic policies strongly favour seniors over children. And there's no outlook where that changes. We see this in Canada where child benefits phase out at ~$40k family income and OAS phases out at ~$90k individual income. Or look at more young people moving in to condos while those condos themselves are shrinking. Average condo/apartment size has shrunk 35% since the 60s, in Canada, as per housing expert Mike Moffat.

This was famously from Harper's economic advisor, Sean Speer. Lest anybody think this is lefty liberal nonsense:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/corridors/2021/05/19/the-politics-of-gerontocracy-in-canada-795394

Here's a simple way to look at it. What is the marginal cost of having a child? To do that, work out how much adding one more bedroom would cost. In most cities in Canada, that means $75-100k more. That's $400-550 on the mortgage. But then there's daycare, RESPs, food, clothes, healthcare, summer camp. $1500/mo of post-tax income is a conservative estimate. That's $25k before taxes. Basically, no couple can comfortably have a child without a six figure income. And probably need family incomes in the top 10% to have two kids.

 

[ytz]

Productivity!

Don't import servants and wage slaves.

Exploit the promise of technology.

Productivity is half the problem. Who gets the gains of productivity is an important consideration. And given wage stagnation in Canada, it mostly hasn't been going to workers.

 

[Kirkhill]

OECD countries are probably irreversible at this point. Gerontocratic policies strongly favour seniors over children. And there's no outlook where that changes. We see this in Canada where child benefits phase out at ~$40k family income and OAS phases out at ~$90k individual income. Or look at more young people moving in to condos while those condos themselves are shrinking. Average condo/apartment size has shrunk 35% since the 60s, in Canada, as per housing expert Mike Moffat.

Here's a simple way to look at it. What is the marginal cost of having a child? To do that, work out how much adding one more bedroom would cost. In most cities in Canada, that means $75-100k more. That's $400-550 on the mortgage. But then there's daycare, RESPs, food, clothes, healthcare, summer camp. $1500/mo of post-tax income is a conservative estimate. That's $25k before taxes. Basically, no couple can comfortably have a child without a six figure income. And probably need family incomes in the top 10% to have two kids.

Too much regulation.

On the plus side regulation improves.

It also creates jobs, both for inspectors and for the people who supply the improvements.

On the downside it raises costs. The cost of housing, transportation, food, clothing, fuel, education, in short the costs associated woth raising a family.

Exacerbated by additional regulations on how to raise a family.

Do you suppose it is a coincidence that undeveloped countries have lower costs, lower regulation and higher fertility levels?

 

[ytz]

On the security angle, I worry about:

The Korean peninsula. SK's TFR is so bad, that in a decade or two they may not have enough recruits to defend themselves from a North Korea that doesn't think anything of militarizing their entire population.

Water wars. Particularly India-China-Pakistan all nuclear powers fighting over the bit of water from the Himalayas.

Africa. You think the migrant problem in Europe is bad now? Just wait.

But also, it's interesting what countries do as they develop. See the conflict over the GERD in Ethiopia. They solve their power problems, start developing and now they want to settle old scores with Eritrea.

 

[ytz]

Do you suppose it is a coincidence that undeveloped countries have lower costs, lower regulation and higher fertility levels?

I just told you that India is below TFR. What overregulation problem do they have?

You know what TFR trends maps onto really well? Cost of living. That. And religiosity. Regardless of religion, the more people pray, the more kids they have.

 

[Kirkhill]

I just told you that India is below TFR. What overregulation problem do they have?

You know what TFR trends maps onto really well? Cost of living.

One of the relics of The Raj: the British Civil Service. Highly sought after jobs.

 

[ytz]

One of the relics of The Raj: the British Civil Service. Highly sought after jobs.

Right. Cause things like daycare are regulated like Canada?

You ever been to India?

Also, a ton of the License Raj as it was known has been substantially dismantled in the 90s. It's a big part of why their economy started taking off. Incidentally, their TFR went in the opposite direction of GDP. Just like every Asian Tiger economy.

 

[Kirkhill]

Wait. So their economy improved as their population pressure decreased? And they decreased regulation?

So why are we increasing population pressure by importing people and increasing regulations?

Are these people we are importing going to make us more technologically proficient and improve our productivity?

Or are they going to continue to slow our transition from manual labour to automation?