Gun Control: US and Global

[Jarnhamar]

[quote author=Oldgateboatdriver] .

So where does this sudden concept that they are the same comes from? It comes from statistics from the first three months of 2018 only. Statistically, this means nothing. You may have an unusual low number in NY or an unusual high number in London - or a combination of both - that will resorb itself after the whole year is over, or not, as 2018 as awhile could be a statistical anomaly itself. But a three month period, or even one year, completely out of norm does not mean anything in the statistical world - nor does it factually prove any point on a given subject.

[/quote]

Good point. New York State is still around the half way mark for violent  crimes in the US by state but if we're being fair then cherry picking stats like this is the same thing that Ralph Goodale and the Liberals are doing to justify their bill C-71.

On the other hand I can see why this London new York meme is so popular after how condisending the London mayor is or has been. Gotta be careful when you hold yourself up so high, people tend to enjoy watching you fall.

It would be interesting to see who's behind these increase in stabbings in London, wouldn't it?  Maybe the police over there should stay off Facebook and Twitter and target violent criminals a little more.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Who said there was an increase in stabbing in London? If you are parsing a few months here and there without showing how they relate to the whole year, you cannot state that there is an increase until all the months are in.

Funny thing about London, UK: My wife and I honeymooned there in 1986. We had friends from the Royal Navy we visited on the occasion. They told us to be mindful, if we were ever robbed at knife point, to stay far back from the thief and "throw" our belonging they wanted at their feet. You see, even back then, it was a practice for thieves in London to give you the knife no matter what because they knew that the bobbies first responsibility was to make sure you were cared for after an injury - so it gave them the time to get away clean.

So, obviously, knife attacks in London are nothing new - and funny enough, there is no knife registry or knife confiscation program.

Q.E.D. the meme doesn't hold water (even just starting with (1) the fact that it relies on false facts and (2) the fact that only people "in" on the alleged conspiracy to confiscate "everything" from people get the point).

 

[Jarnhamar]

Who said there was an increase in stabbing in London? If you are parsing a few months here and there without showing how they relate to the whole year, you cannot state that there is an increase until all the months are in.

The Sun UK

Are stabbings on the rise?

Knife crime across the country has risen by a staggering 21 per cent in the 12 months to September 2017, according to quarterly figures released by the Office of National Statistics.

Stabbings in London are at their highest level in six years, with a 23 per cent rise from the previous year.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/5251268/london-stabbing-knife-crime-statistics-violence-deaths-latest/amp/

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Thanks for the insight into murder rates.

The stats are not the point and really have little to do with the actual proof of the pictures. I can't change the wording, it's not my meme. However, I won't get sidetracked on stats, because as we know and you've shown, stats will be what the poster feels works for them. The words may not stand a microscope, but I don't think you can really call the words wrong until you try adding whatever context suits your fancy.

The point of the meme was to show the futility, uselessness and social dumbing of society by banning inanimate objects. Plus the ridiculouness of politicians and neanderthals that fail to see the corelation of crazies and killing. It's a slam on British gun confiscation. As in, "Well, we took all the guns and the murders got worse. We'll do knives next."

We knew it wouldn't stop with guns and were called crazy for it.

But the meme didn't show any of that- it just used a small sample size to create a false equivalency. If they want to be honest about it, they would point out that the murder rate in the UK is around .92/100,000 while the US comes in at 4.88/100,000. Or 15,696 to 594. Or, for 2014, there were 8124 murders involving guns in the US vice the 594 murders in the UK the entire year.

Even with a "rise in stabbings" the UK doesn't come close to the US in murders or other violent crimes. So the arguments made would appear on deeper reflection to be entirely false, misleading, or grossly understated.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

So why the "fuss" about stabbings then if it is such a small number?

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

The "fuss", Colin, is about the fact that newspapers have to sell papers. And they especially grab at statistics improperly to make fuss about something that may or may not be significant event. The original article mentioned that the stabbings are the highest in London "in the last six years". That would seem to indicate that they were higher six years ago.

The news media like to make anything sound like it's the end of the world.

Imagine that you live in a town that has an average of 2 car accidents per year, with these numbers of accidents in the last 9 years: 2,2,2,1,3,0,3,2,1. And this year, you have 4. The news medias will blabber all over their pages that you have a 400% increase in car accidents this year - Help! Someone, get the politicians off their arses! Do something!

In fact, the four accidents are still in the same average of 2, and just happen to balance with the 0. Nothing special happened, nothing warrants any action, and nothing special happened this year, nor in the year where there were zero accidents.

That's why, just as with the stock market, professionals disregard the day to day fluctuations and study the long term trends. Or to put it in highly imaged way: What was the New York murder rate the year Al Quaeda destroyed the WTC? You can't look at that statistical "blip" as indicative of anything in terms of crime trends.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I'm just guessing here but I figure those London New York memes stem from the London's, or maybe London's mayors cockiness about their gun control policies and general snootieness about American gun culture.

Either way police in London will be able to randomly stop and search citizens.  I wonder when that law will extend to searching people's homes without a warrant, especially when they say more an things on twitter and the police shake them down.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I could be wrong, Jarnhamar, but unless an act of Parliament temporarily suspends civil rights for reason of national emergency, I think that any attempt by the police to stop and search people at random and without a cause will quickly run into centuries of common law jurisprudence, regardless of what the mayor of London may wish.

:nod:

I do agree he is little too cocky about the Americans sometimes, and it's not one of his better traits.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I could be wrong, Jarnhamar, but unless an act of Parliament temporarily suspends civil rights for reason of national emergency, I think that any attempt by the police to stop and search people at random and without a cause will quickly run into centuries of common law jurisprudence, regardless of what the mayor of London may wish.

Hard to believe eh? Maybe I'm reading it wrong but take a look at some of the articles from the UK about stop and search. It sounds like it'd been around for a while and police could stop and search you if they had reason to believe you might have a knife. It sounds like the justification for searches were pretty shady in some cases.  I think they found black people were overly targeted too. Which could be racist or because they were the biggest perpetrators.

Which is an unfortunate truth about American homicides (at least firearm)  but largely ignored.

I do agree he is little too cocky about the Americans sometimes, and it's not one of his better traits.

Exactly.  Police ought to look at what Scotland did, among other things.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The meme is about the knife ban. Not the murder rate. See the amnesty boxes in the picture? The other places I've seen it, the posters appear to understand that. I have not seen a single discussion with that picture and murder stats, except here.

The Brits held out that their confiscation of firearms would end their crime. That hasn't worked, so now they are banning the carry and transport of knives.

The meme is simply pointing at the stupidity and ignorance that you can lower crime by restrictions on inanimate objects. That is my concern.

Not a pissing contest about what city kills more people.

Don't let me stop your fun though, you seem to be enjoying your tangent.

 

[Blackadder1916]

The meme is about the knife ban. Not the murder rate. See the amnesty boxes in the picture? The other places I've seen it, the posters appear to understand that. I have not seen a single discussion with that picture and murder stats, except here.

. . . .

Huh?  And I quote from the meme "LONDON'S MURDER RATE OUTPACES NEW YORK DESPITE GUN BAN"

You may have meant to swing the discussion to "knives" as an example of your opinion about the encroachment of government regulations, but (as I learned in JLC, well actually even before that in high school debating) communication is a two way activity, what you intend to say may not be received as you expect.  Especially when the visual aids used can be interpreted in several different ways.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Huh?  And I quote from the meme "LONDON'S MURDER RATE OUTPACES NEW YORK DESPITE GUN BAN"

You may have meant to swing the discussion to "knives" as an example of your opinion about the encroachment of government regulations, but (as I learned in JLC, well actually even before that in high school debating) communication is a two way activity, what you intend to say may not be received as you expect.  Especially when the visual aids used can be interpreted in several different ways.

Yeah, it should have been expected. No sweat, continue the convo then. I'll back off my point.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

The meme is about the knife ban. Not the murder rate. See the amnesty boxes in the picture? The other places I've seen it, the posters appear to understand that. I have not seen a single discussion with that picture and murder stats, except here.

The Brits held out that their confiscation of firearms would end their crime. That hasn't worked, so now they are banning the carry and transport of knives.

The meme is simply pointing at the stupidity and ignorance that you can lower crime by restrictions on inanimate objects. That is my concern.

Not a pissing contest about what city kills more people.

Don't let me stop your fun though, you seem to be enjoying your tangent.

But that's why you're wrong though and what the point of the statistics was. No one thought gun control woukd end crime, just limit gun crime. That gun crime rates are miniscule speaks for itself. That murder rates are far lower than the US and many western nations indicates that crime is hardly out of control. As this is a gun control board these are all reasonable discussions.

 

[Eaglelord17]

But that's why you're wrong though and what the point of the statistics was. No one thought gun control woukd end crime, just limit gun crime. That gun crime rates are miniscule speaks for itself. That murder rates are far lower than the US and many western nations indicates that crime is hardly out of control. As this is a gun control board these are all reasonable discussions.

Murder rate and gun crime are two different discussions. Canada for example has historically always had a lower murder rate than the USA even though until 1978 we had less restrictive firearms laws than the USA. In the UK and Austrailia, their tougher gun laws has not reduced the murder rate, all that happened was other methods of murder became more popular. I would argue looking at gun crime rates is a red herring, as you haven't actually addressed the issue which is people killing each other.

See this chart from Australia can you tell when stronger gun laws were brought in from the data? The answer is 1996 but there isn't a corresponding drop in murder other than the trend that has been continuing since the 1970s in Western nations.

http://www.crimestats.aic.gov.au/NHMP/1_trends/

Here is one from the UK, again if you didn't know gun laws were enacted you wouldn't even think they were. Its also interesting that the UK now has a higher murder rate than it did in 60s and 70s.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/compendium/focusonviolentcrimeandsexualoffences/yearendingmarch2016/homicide

As you can see there isn't a effect between gun control and murder for the simple reason your not targeting the people committing the crimes in the first place. I would argue the issues with the USA has nothing to do with firearms and instead has a fair bit to do with culture. The solution I honestly don't know, but it isn't a new issue and the crime rate has been steadily dropping in the USA for several decades now despite the media making it seem like its the end of the world.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

But that's why you're wrong though and what the point of the statistics was. No one thought gun control woukd end crime, just limit gun crime. That gun crime rates are miniscule speaks for itself. That murder rates are far lower than the US and many western nations indicates that crime is hardly out of control. As this is a gun control board these are all reasonable discussions.

Careful, Scotland Yard has already been raked over the coals for playing funny with Stats, if a burglar is caught and found to commit 5 B&E, he was booked as 1, making the stats look better than they are. Crime Stats there and other places can be very political and the pressure is on them to keep them down, also if the police don't do anything about the issue, people stop reporting it, meaning it's no longer picked up in the annual stats. The English have always had social issues and they like to push that image under the carpet.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-30081682

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/19/rising-at-increasing-rate-in-england-and-wales-police-figures-show



 

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Lies, damn lies and statistics.  :nod:

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I think we  probably got got on the wrong side of Recceguy's point here.

Sure, the stats for murder between the UK (London in particular) and New York City don't compare. But, where the point is "Banning gun didn't quite work, so what next? Banning Knives" is concerned, he quite frankly may have a point on where the "snowflakes" people will go next, thinking themselves right without proof.

Just saying.
 

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Tanks OGBD. That is where I was on it. Cheers.

 

[Jarnhamar]

More from London.

Random searches should be combined with confiscation of anything with a blade or tools like screw drivers.  I'd go a step further and ban non-transclucent backpacks, purses and fanny packs.

An epidemic of stabbings and acid attacks in London has gotten so bad that London mayor Sadiq Khan is announcing broad new "knife control" policies designed to keep these weapons of war out of the hands of Londoners looking to cause others harm.

The "tough, immediate" measures involve an incredible police crackdown, a ban on home deliveries of knives and acid, and expanding law enforcement stop-and-search powers so that police may stop anyone they believe to be a threat, or planning a knife or acid attack.

Khan announced Friday that the city has created a "violent crime taskforce of 120 officers" tasked with rooting out knife-wielding individuals in public spaces, and is pumping nearly $50 million into the Metropolitan Police department so that they can better arm themselves against knife attacks. He's also empowering the Met Police to introduce "targeted patrols with extra stop and search powers for areas worst-affected," according to a statement.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/29179/londons-mayor-declares-intense-new-knife-control-emily-zanotti?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=062316-news&utm_campaign=benshapiro

 

[Jed]

More from London.

Random searches should be combined with confiscation of anything with a blade or tools like screw drivers.  I'd go a step further and ban non-transclucent backpacks, purses and fanny packs.

This is starting to sound like the Mayor of London is declaring a state of Martial Law. Very Police State like.  I guess PET enacted the FLQ crisis so it is not unprecedented.