The current fastest scheduled train between Union and Ottawa is 4:20 h with 6 en route stops. It almost never makes that time in reality. Usually running is well past 4:30. Sometimes 5 hrs. Alto is pledging 2:09 from Toronto to Ottawa. And internationally HSR trends to > 95% on time performance within 15 mins. So worst case here is 2.5 hrs which would still be a 2 hr savings over the fastest scheduled train today. Of which there is only one. The average Toronto-Ottawa train is scheduled for closer to 5 hrs.
And if you're flying? 0.5 hr pre-flight if you don't have luggage. 1 hr pre-flight with bags. 1 hr in the air. At least 0.5 hr on each end for airport access. 3 hrs downtown to downtown is probably optimistic by air. A 2:09h train ride starts looking awfully attractive and convenient even with station access on both sides.
Good. There's no point slowing down a train of 300 people to pick up 5 riders. And slowing a service with more stops costs a ton of riders in the metros for negligible gains from small towns. Traffic between the major metros and along the Lakeshore needs to separated so that both can benefit. Move the inter-metro traffic to HSR and then make VIA an all-stop Lakeshore service that is hubbed out of Kingston with schedules optimized for everybody who lives along the shore.
Internationally, high speed rail stops tend to be spaced 50-100 km apart. What Alto is proposing is fairly close. The speeds are high enough that it becomes worthwhile to drive (or bus) 25-50 km to a station.
Stations can be added along the line later. That's not a big deal. Getting a dedicated corridor built is key. And the reason it's moving to HSR is that there's no point going through all that effort and all those fights to build a dedicated corridor which would still come to tens of billions and ten end up with trains that take 4 hrs from Toronto to Ottawa instead of 5 hrs. It's only worth doing if transformative results are guaranteed.
Oh and the soft approach was tried before. The Harper government famously ballooned à $20M triple tracking from Kingston to Belleville to $318M and delivered half the track planned. They paid the CN to build this. CN said, "Thanks for the capacity," and then increased freight traffic and VIA actually saw on time performance get worse. This was called out by the Auditor General.
The article below was originally prepared for the March/April version of “Ontario Report”. To make it more readily available to website readers, it is reproduced here. – &…
ontario.transportaction.ca
After that experience any investment using the current corridor is out. The freight rail operators can't be trusted.