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How Does France's Rejection of the EU Agreement Change Things?

Bruce Monkhouse

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http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2005/05/26/1057533-ap.htm
French voters reject the EU constitution in major blow to Chirac
By JOHN LEICESTER
   
PARIS (AP) - French voters rejected the European Union's first constitution Sunday, a stinging repudiation of President Jacques Chirac's leadership and the ambitious, decades-long effort to further unite the Continent.
Chirac, who had urged voters to approve the charter, announced the result in a brief, televised address. He said the process of ratifying the treaty would continue in other EU countries.

"It is your sovereign decision, and I take note," Chirac said. "Make no mistake, France's decision inevitably creates a difficult context for the defence of our interests in Europe."
With nearly 96 per cent of votes counted, "No" had 55.5 per cent, with only 44.5 per cent for "Yes," the Interior Ministry said.
The treaty's rejection in a bitterly contested referendum in France - the architect of the European project - could set the Continent's plans back by years and amounts to a personal humiliation for the veteran French leader.

Treaty opponents chanting "We won!" gathered at Place de la Bastille, a symbol of rebellion where angry crowds in 1789 stormed the prison and sparked the French Revolution. Cars blared their horns and "No" campaigners thrust their arms into the air.
"This is a great victory," said Fabrice Savel, 38, from the working-class suburb of Aubervilliers. He was distributing posters that read: "No to a free-market Europe."
EU leaders in Brussels, Belgium, vowed to continue their effort to have the constitution approved.

All 25 EU members must ratify the text for it to take effect as planned by Nov. 1, 2006. Nine already have done so: Austria, Hungary, Italy, Germany, Greece, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
The Dutch vote Wednesday, with polls showing opposition to the constitution there running at about 60 per cent. On Friday, the constitution's main architect, former French president Valery Giscard d'Estaing, said countries that reject the treaty will be asked to vote again.
France's was the first "No" - even though it was a founder member of what over 50 years has grown into the EU.

"There is no more constitution," said Philippe de Villiers, a leading opponent. "It is necessary to reconstruct Europe on other foundations that don't currently exist."
De Villiers called on Chirac to resign - something the French leader had said he would not do - and called for parliament to be dissolved.
Jean-Marie Le Pen, the extreme-right leader who campaigned vigorously for the constitution's defeat, also called for Chirac's resignation.

Chirac "wanted to gamble . . . and he has lost," Le Pen said, alluding to Chirac's decision not to submit the charter to sure approval by parliament. The EU constitution can be adopted either by a referendum or a country's legislature.
The French vote came three days before the charter faces another hostile reception in the Netherlands.
Chirac and European leaders have said there was no fallback plan in the event of a French rejection. But many French voters did not believe that. Many, especially on the left, hoped their "No" vote would force the EU back to the drawing board and improve the 448-clause document. In the meantime, "No" voters expected the EU to continue functioning under existing treaties.

The outcome caused immediate disarray, with political leaders outside France divided on the significance of the French vote.
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said "the result raises profound questions for all of us about the future direction of Europe."
But the European Union's industry commissioner, Guenther Verheugen, said the vote was not a catastrophe and that the situation should not be over dramatized.
"Integration will continue," Verheugen said.

Chirac had waged an all-out campaign to persuade nearly 42 million sharply divided voters to approve the charter. But the electorate was in rebellious mood, with unemployment running at 10 per cent and wide unease about the direction Europe is taking.
Turnout was close to 70 per cent - testifying to the passions that the treaty and the debate surrounding it aroused.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the head of Chirac's ruling Union for a Popular Movement and a leading campaigner for the "Yes" camp, called Sunday's defeat "a major political event."
Looking ahead to France's next general elections in 2007, Sarkozy said: "We must decide on an innovative, courageous and ambitious plan of action."
Chirac's popularity ratings have plummeted in recent weeks, and in his television address, the president said he would announce "my decisions concerning the government and its priorities" in coming days.
Although Chirac argued that the constitution would streamline EU decision-making and make the bloc more accessible to its 450 million citizens, opponents feared it would strip France of its sovereignty and generous social system and trigger an influx of cheap labour. On the left, opponents feared that the treaty would open the EU to unfettered free-market capitalism, trampling on workers rights.

In the end, though, the French - torn between wanting to remain one of the engines of an increasingly competitive Europe yet fiercely protective of the generous social welfare benefits they enjoy - stuck with their perceptions that the charter posed another threat to their cherished way of life.


This is good news for fortress North America as I see it, keeping us competitive in the "game" of finances.
 
LOL, rather ironic how the French see themselves as some sort of an island of reason surrounded by irrational actors. 
 
European leaders, aside from the British, have never really grasped the concept of Democracy, have they? They simply see themselves as the enlightened intelligentsia leading the unwashed masses, for their own good. They've always struck me as self-appointed 'neveau nobility'.
And we are following their brilliant example.

It is good news for us, though. And maybe it will lead to the downfall of the De Gaullists currently in power in France. Which may lead to Europe actually grasping that "Hey! There's a war on". Which, in turn may force us out of our complacency.
 
paracowboy said:
European leaders, aside from the British, have never really grasped the concept of Democracy, have they? They simply see themselves as the enlightened intelligentsia leading the unwashed masses, for their own good. They've always struck me as self-appointed 'neveau nobility'.
And we are following their brilliant example.

It is good news for us, though. And maybe it will lead to the downfall of the De Gaullists currently in power in France. Which may lead to Europe actually grasping that "Hey! There's a war on". Which, in turn may force us out of our complacency.

The more likely reaction is a disinterested shrug by the Eurocrats in Brussels who will continue on as if nothing had happened. This is the brilliant example "we" are following....
 
Interesting. I'm not so sure that it will change much. The EU has always had political aspirations and I don't think France opting out of this constitution will change that.

It's a setback to complete integration to be sure but the process will still continue.

The United States of Europe, is comming. It'll take a little longer now but it will happen.
 
this latest news brings to mind a newspaper headline about another big vote, back in November:
"How can so many people be so DUMB?"
 
squeeliox said:
this latest news brings to mind a newspaper headline about another big vote, back in November:
"How can so many people be so DUMB?"

Mostly because people put their back to the wall with talk about "if you're not with us, you're against us?"  Or stark refusals to see their point of view?
 
I don't and someone correct me if I'm wrong..but the whole point of the EU was to facilitate trade and get rid of cross border tariffs was it not? as for as I know the thing wasn't to create a super Europe. Has the UK signed?
Part of me thinks this is France giving a collective gallic shrug to the EU but a smaller part thinks they really believe they're keeping France alive.

Thoughts/rebuttals
 
Michael Dorosh said:
Mostly because people put their back to the wall with talk about "if you're not with us, you're against us?"   Or stark refusals to see their point of view?

nevertheless, it's still a dumb move. the french voters appear to have swallowed all the usual crap from the left about the "threat" of foreign capital, while simultaneously swallowing all the usual crap from the right about the "threat" of foreign anything else.

and mr monkhouse, perhaps you can explain to me how a potential decrease in economic competition (and deterioration of an overseas source/destination of capital and goods, of whatever scale) can be considered a "good thing" for Canada? (or "fortress north america" if you prefer...)
 
There are many European who feel that the EU, à la 2004, is just about right where Robert Schuman and Jean Monnet intended it to be - and where a solid majority of Europeans wants it to rest.

Churchill (beginning in 1930) may have envisioned, indeed promoted a United States of Europe but it is not clear that he, or any of the EU's pioneers intended anything like a construct which Giscard d'Estaing's putative EU constitution proposes.

If I understand what I am reading there is a growing three-way split in Europe between an Anglo-Dutch/Scandinavian liberal wing, a Romano-Euro (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain) wing and an emerging, German led, Mitteleuropa.  While these three wings can (have) agreed to many, many customs/currency union arrangements they have deep and ever-deepening divisions about a wide range of social and political issues.

The French centre remains to committed to Schuman's radical (1948) idea of a Franco-German super-state at the centre of a loosely united Europe - which Schuman modified, in 1950, to the far less imperialistic coal and steel agreement.  The German centre was favourable to this idea until the most recent expansion - but Germany's traditional, perhaps 'natural' political drang nacht Osten seems to be ascendant, again.  The liberals are uncomfortable with the ideas and ideals of both the other groups - Europe has an awful lot of history, doesn't it?

I believe the European will get a constitution - but nothing like the one Giscard d'Estaing wrote.  If the Dutch vote 'No!' too then a new constitutional convention will have to be established because too many Europeans do want to continue unifying, even if they are not quite sure what that means.  It is likely that whatever is agreed will do little more than formalize what is already there - a customs and (partial) currency union with several common institutions leaving, largely, things which relate to individual liberty in the hands of sovereign national government - out of reach of the Eurocrats in Brussels and foreign politicians in Strasbourg.


 
Poppa said:
I don't and someone correct me if I'm wrong..but the whole point of the EU was to facilitate trade and get rid of cross border tariffs was it not? as for as I know the thing wasn't to create a super Europe. Has the UK signed?
Part of me thinks this is France giving a collective gallic shrug to the EU but a smaller part thinks they really believe they're keeping France alive.

Thoughts/rebuttals

The idea of a European Union arose as a response to WW2. It was always fundamentally a political project designed to overcome conflicts and create political peace through economic integration and prosperity. The long term goal was always a federal Europe.

The reason why I don't believe this will cause any problems is that the whole process was/is based on gradualism. Basically time is on their side. Setbacks have already occurred. In 1957 the treaty of Rome created a Customs Union between West Germany, France, Italy and others the UK took part in the meetings but didn't sign.

Don't forget the countries that opted out of the Euro when the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 92 which created the economic union.

European powers have already signed away a great deal of their national sovereignty to the EU Like I said time will tell just how successful this whole project will be.
 
The French rejection of the EU constitution is not a good thing for the future of the EU. I expect to see other countries follow suit. Chirac wants to use the EU to replace NATO and to reduce the US presence in Europe - hence the new EU Army.
The EU is not a political threat to the power/prestige of the US as it is virtually impossible to make one unified country out of Europe.
 
this latest news brings to mind a newspaper headline about another big vote, back in November:
"How can so many people be so DUMB?"

What newspaper was that in?
 
tomahawk6 said:
The French rejection of the EU constitution is not a good thing for the future of the EU. I expect to see other countries follow suit. Chirac wants to use the EU to replace NATO and to reduce the US presence in Europe - hence the new EU Army.
The EU is not a political threat to the power/prestige of the US as it is virtually impossible to make one unified country out of Europe.

Economically for all intents and purposes the EU is already one country

Like I said earlier the EU's gradualism is its strength. Give it some time and perhaps some democratic reform to its current structure and I believe it will rival the US someday.
 
I read in the Sun this morning that Chirac could have sent this to Parliament instead of a referendum, and that it would likely have passed. Apparently, each Government had the choice of how to have this Constitution ratified. He chose to gamble and send it to referendum, so it's rejection is his responsibility. Funny, as I've also read that France was the lead nation in the writing of this so it is particularly embarrassing for Chirac.

As well, I don't see how an EU comprising of nations at opposite ends of the economic spectrum could possibly stay united. Why would the Netherlands, Belgium, The UK, etc. want to hitch their wagon to Italy, Portugal, Greek Cyprus, Lithuania, or any other economically 'sluggish' country? Never mind some of the 'candidate' countries like Romania, who's economy should make any fiscally minded European shudder. Am I mis-informed or missing something here? It seems to be a great deal for the lesser countries, but a bit of a raw deal for the power-house nations.

I don't see a meaningfully united Europe lasting longer than 10-20 years. But that's just me. There are just too many differences in how Europeans from different countries see the world, particularly from a political and economic standpoint.

Thoughts?



 
Caesar, taking your argumentout of it's European context why would Canada and the US want Mexico in NAFTA then? The premise behind free trade says the larger and freer the market the better it is for everyone. AAMOF I would think the poor countries would be the ones to suffer not the rich.
 
Good point Reccesoldier. However, Canada, the US, and Mexico each have their own currency. The degradation of the peso does not result in an equal and immediate degradation of the US or Canadian dollar. Of course, the Canadian dollar is closely linked to the US dollar, and NAFTA merely strengthend a pre-existing link. In short I can see the desire to reduce/eliminate tarrifs, but one currency? One defence plan/force? Essentially, one nation? I can see the powerhouse nations like France, UK, Holland, even Germany linking, but I can't for the life of me see why the average northwestern European would want to unify with Latvia or Romania. Free trade - you bet. One Uber-Nation? No way.

I have always assumed that the UK opted out of the Euro for this reason (linkage of economic health via 1 currency).



 
Caesar said:
I have always assumed that the UK opted out of the Euro for this reason (linkage of economic health via 1 currency).

Not only that, but maintaining the national currency preserves important political options open regarding monetary policy.
 
>How Does France's Rejection of the EU Agreement Change Things?

It forces the French government to observe a respectable modicum of delay before signing on irrespective of the popular wishes of the electorate.
 
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