I suppose, since we're discussing weather, I should put my 5 cents in (inflation since gas isn't cheap). Being a wx (weather) guy for the military I can honestly say that our "fears" of hurricanes of that magnitude can be alleviated. Hurricanes begin as tropical storms in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone)
http://geography.about.com/library/weekly/aa050301a.htm which, is an area 5 degrees north and 5 degrees south of the equator. Due to the amount of
warm, moist air in the region, storms are commonplace. As a Tropical Storm gains momentum, it eventually "breaks-away" from this region and begins it's trek. Click this link for up to date tracks of current storms (
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/tropical.html ) If you clicked the link, you will see that the current storms are tracking in their expected routes. In other words these are very common trajectories which are following the typical norms of climate data gathered for decades (even centuries, in some cases).
Once a storm hits land, it's then introduced to our old friend, Friction. Yep, no KY for the Eastern U.S. The storm rapidly loses strength and eventually peters out. Another factor involved refers to the emphasis placed on
warm moist air earlier. In order for a storm to gain strength, it needs this contant influx of convection (warm air rising). I hate to be the bearer of bad news but, here in Canada, there are no plans to open a Club Med on the East coast. Anyone who has been to the tropics can tell you what real
warm moist air feels like. We just aren't blessed with that...yet. (Everyone north of the border knows that Global Warming is really a secret plan by Canadians to change the climate in our favour. So everyone keep those fluorocarbons coming).
BUT Met Guy! Wait! What about Hurricane Juan?
Yes. Hurricanes DO occasionally ride the Gulf stream in order to get political asylum in Canada. Lord knows, it's more efficient than a Chinese freighter. However, it's important to note what constitutes a hurricane. It's all about the wind (excuse me). A hurricane is NOT a hurricane unless it can sustain winds greater than 63kts (73 mph or 118 kmh). Therefore, you are officially experiencing hurricane force winds when it's sustained mean is as low as 64 kts. Any navy fellas can tell you that happens a lot in their AOs.
The various scales are defined in this link to the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
In conclusion, we can all rest assured that Juan is about as hard as it gets for Canada (until there are enough fluorocarbons present). Our biggest concerns? Forest Fires, some spring flooding, Ice Storms, Tornadoes, West coast earthquakes / tsunamis, the Leafs winning the Stanley Cup (we can probably rule that out though), and the Liberals getting in ever again. :dontpanic:
Now, rest assured, I understand it was purely hypothetical and really, we're only discussing what would happen IF a disaster (any disaster) were to happen on that scale in Canada. From what I've witnessed however, there has been an exceptional response to any disaster relief in our country. I believe our response would be the same no matter the scale. We in the CF have always only worked with what we have and, for that, I am proud to have been a part of it. It's the attitude of our soldiers, airmen/women and sailors that makes the difference. (And there IS a difference, believe me.) I only wanted to assure anyone that many of the complications associated with a Hurricane as opposed to other types of disasters can be eliminated or, at the very least, scaled down. (Armed with shovels, the military CAN rescue Toronto. IF we really wanted to. Show of hands? Anyone? Beuller? Beuller?)
Take care!
