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Imported oil and the threat to our security

GO!!! said:
ANWR and the sedimentary basins in shallow water are already surveyed. We already KNOW there is oil there. It was a matter of waiting until the price of oil became high enough for it to be worth it to extract it. 55$ a barrel for light sweet crude is definitely within this definition.

As for having reached peak production, I won't even justify that with a response, it's a fact, live it, love it.
For a tract of land the size of ANWR, a couple of seismic shots and one exploration well do not constitute much of a comprehensive survey.  In fact we don't even know if there's oil there.  We know from the seismic information that there are some interesting geological traps, which may hold hydrocarbon (or water).  The results of the exploration well are a tightly guarded secret of the oil company that drilled it (Exxon, IIRC).  We know it's encouraging, since the oil companies still want to explore the area.  We have no idea if it will develop into a Prudhoe Bay type operation, still producing 3/4 of a million barrels per day 30 years later, or if it will be something more like Badami, only producing 100 barrels per day a few years after drilling, and shut down.

Uncertainties like that (and they exist all over the world, not just in ANWR) are the main reason I tend to scoff at people who say that it's all downhill from here.
 
Got this in my mailbox today (what, you think army.ca is the only site I go to? ;)), and it turns out we can also "grow our own"

http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/05/06/wo/wo_060705jaffe.asp?p=0

Biodiesel: A New Way of Turning Plants into Fuel
By Sam Jaffe June 7, 2005

Eco-dreamers have long hoped for a way to drive around without contributing to global warming, but the slow pace of progress in alternative fuel technologies has kept that vision from materializing. Now, a promising new process, designed by researchers at the University of Wisconsin and outlined in a paper that appeared in the journal Science on June 2, could be a significant step toward turning that dream into a reality.

The paper details a new way to produce biodiesel fuel, which is made out of plant matter. Traditional biodiesel refining uses only the fatty acids of a plant, which typically make up less than 10 percent of the mass of dried plants. Rather than converting only the fat, this new method promises to turn all of the dried plant material, including roots, stems, leaves, and fruit, into biodiesel or heat energy.

Ethanol, the most popular and commercial biofuel, has long been refined out of plant matter, but it requires the costly, energy-intensive step of distilling every molecule of water out of the solution. In contrast, the new biodiesel process is based on aqueous phase reactions, which don't need to go through the expensive distillation phase.

"The biggest advance we have to offer is the lack of that distillation process," says George Huber, one of the paper's authors and a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin who will soon be teaching at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. "That means that our process is exothermic." In other words, it doesn't need a lot of extra energy. And that's important, because the largest cost in the current biofuel refining process is energy.

The new method is divided into four parts. First, a stream of processed biomass consisting of water and sugars is fed over a nickel-tin catalyst to strip off some of its hydrogen atoms. Then the stream is treated with acids that take out most of the water. The resulting "goo" is then transported over a solid base catalyst, which forms it into long carbon chains, called alkanes. Finally, those alkanes are run through a platinum-silica-alumina catalyst at high temperatures, while the hydrogen from the first step is fed into the reactor. The resulting liquid has almost the exact same chemical structure as traditionally refined biodiesel and burns the same way in diesel engines. And the only byproducts are water and heat.

If the process can be scaled up to industrial levels, it could be a major step toward the creation of a transportation fuel that is relatively clean burning, doesn't contribute to global warming, and provides U.S. farmers with billions of dollars of new income.

According to Bill Jones, Chairman of the Board of Pacific Ethanol, a leading biofuel company, the oil industry currently views the emerging bio-fuels industry with fear, rather than acceptance.

"But eventually they'll come around," he says. "They'll understand that this isn't just competition, it's a whole new market for them to get into."

He points out that the Brazilian petroleum industry also resisted government attempts to promote biofuels, but it is now a big supporter -- more than half of Brazil's oil imports have been replaced with biofuels (see the Technology Review April cover story on world-changing ideas).

Others don't need to be convinced, though. Charles Wyman, a distinguished professor at Dartmouth College in Hanover NH, whose specialty is the biological conversion of cellulosic biomass to ethanol and other products, says this new methodology could give biodiesel a fighting chance to succeed in the commercial marketplace by allowing manufacturers to make either ethanol or biodiesel fuel.

"Once you break down all the sugars in the plant material, the only option we had before was to make ethanol," Wyman says. "This presents more options."

In the future, a single manufacturing center, after refining the biomass into sugars, could make biodiesel or ethanol, depending on market demand. However, Wyman also points out that the economic battle hasn't necessarily been won.

"In the end it's the price at the gas station where these technologies win or lose, not in the laboratory," he says.

To insure that both biodiesel and ethanol become more competitive in the marketplace, Wyman says that a key breakthrough is needed to make diesel fuel or other products such as ethanol competitively from sugars. According to him, advances in this area could beat wholesale gasoline prices.

And some believe that breakthrough is on the horizon. Advancements in the last two years in enzyme technology by the National Renewable Energy Laboratories and private companies such as Iogen and Novozymes have substantially reduced the costs of cellulose transformation, which is tantalizingly close to making the whole system economically competitive with cheap gas.

The new process being developed by James Dumesic, professor of chemical and biological engineering at the University of Wisconsin, and Huber will help to reduce those costs by limiting the amount of waste, since any type of plant matter can be fed into their system. Unlike current ethanol refineries, which can work only with high-glucose content materials such as corn, the biodiesel fuel generated by this process uses the cellulose, roots, and stems of any plant.

That means the waste biomass of America's vast agriculture industry -- everything from corn stover (the stems and leaves of the plant) to peanut shells and fallen leaves -- can be used. A recent U.S. Department of Agriculture study (see Notebook) estimated that more than 1.3 billion tons of such waste is produced every year. If all of it were turned into biodiesel, it would provide enough fuel to replace one-third of the petroleum consumed in the United States. Furthermore, turning currently unused farmland into grassland to be harvested for biodiesel production would easily account for the other two-thirds of petroleum needs.

That, of course, means another beneficiary of such a transformation would be family farmers, according to Pacific Ethanol's Jones. Ethanol refineries owned by cooperatives of farmers already supply the bulk of U.S. ethanol production, and biodiesel refineries could be modeled on the same program.

Honing this new process, though, is only the first step in the very long process of transforming the country to a biodiesel nation. For that to happen, the entire U.S. commercial car fleet would have to switch from internal combustion engines to diesel ones, of course; but the move might be attractive, since the new engines would cause less pollution (biodiesel vehicles would produce far fewer pollutants like sulfur and nitrogen oxides.)

Such a sea-change in the U.S. transportation infrastructure won't happen quickly. More likely, biodiesel production will start slowly, then ramp up to an industrial scale, if it's competitive with diesel and gasoline.

Still, Huber thinks that his team has taken a major step toward harnessing one of the world's most-prevalent, yet least-utilized energy resources.

"If this is a success," he says, "I can say that I helped to convert our biomass resources to fuel our transportation system." 
 
In Germany there are different Grades of Diesel, like for gas, and the cheapest was Bio-Diesel.  Well, I went and put some in the Rental I had for the trip back to the Airport in Frankfurt.  The Father-in-law said that It is hard on the engine and that I may suffer a breakdown on the way to the airport.  Made it to Frankfurt and filled up with Super prior to turning the car in to the Rental Agency.  So, Bio Diesel may not be all that it is cracked up to be. 
 
George Wallace said:
In Germany there are different Grades of Diesel, like for gas, and the cheapest was Bio-Diesel.  Well, I went and put some in the Rental I had for the trip back to the Airport in Frankfurt.  The Father-in-law said that It is hard on the engine and that I may suffer a breakdown on the way to the airport.  Made it to Frankfurt and filled up with Super prior to turning the car in to the Rental Agency.  So, Bio Diesel may not be all that it is cracked up to be. 

Maybe not, but at least it exists as an alternative. My concern isn't so much that we will run out of hydrocarbon fuels, but rather that the long lead times for bringing heavy oil, coal oil, oil shale or bio diesel will leave us with our pants down should some sort of external shock interrupt the current supply of oil.

As a military institution, perhaps we should be looking into some or all of these technologies, since a naval task force, combat team or CF-18 isn't going to get very far without a source of fuel. Based on what I have read, bio diesel would seem to fit the bill best, being relatively portable, able to utilize local waste materials like kitchen grease and plant material, and scalable (imagine a mini biofuel plant at each base, or a ROWPU sized unit you could take along to an overseas deployment). This would not be able to run things for very long, of course, but as a means of tiding you over until alternative arrangements can be made, it is a step in the right direction.
 
I agree. It is a great step in the right direction. It would be a wonderful alternative until the processes for making hydrogen as well as making even better batteries has improved to the point of being commercially viable. All baby steps in the right direction.

Now I'm curious as to the energy and environmental costs of that producing this new bio-gas? Cheaper because of lack of distillation yes. But how much does it cost to create the nickel/tin catalyst, acids for the process, and especially the platinum/silica/alumina catalyst? Not to mention what was burnt to go into the production of the heat supplied for the process?

Its rather funny/sad how much energy (burning fossil fuels) it costs to produce the alternative fuel sources that we are so longingly searching for.
 
a_majoor said:
As a military institution, perhaps we should be looking into some or all of these technologies, since a naval task force, combat team or CF-18 isn't going to get very far without a source of fuel. Based on what I have read, bio diesel would seem to fit the bill best, being relatively portable, able to utilize local waste materials like kitchen grease and plant material, and scalable (imagine a mini biofuel plant at each base, or a ROWPU sized unit you could take along to an overseas deployment).

This is the last thing that we should be thinking about. If BioDiesel is a plausible alternative, lets wait 20 years, and when it's perfected THEN buy it. Diesel is (and will be for the next 10-15 years), the most easily purchased energy source anywhere on the planet. In addition to this, there is no biomass in some parts of the world to speak of (Kandahar comes to mind) and the locals would'nt really appreciate us cutting down the trees that are there for diesel!

When you put it that way - cutting down trees to make them into diesel - I can see the greens going for this already!
 
GO!!! said:
This is the last thing that we should be thinking about. If BioDiesel is a plausible alternative, lets wait 20 years, and when it's perfected THEN buy it. Diesel is (and will be for the next 10-15 years), the most easily purchased energy source anywhere on the planet. In addition to this, there is no biomass in some parts of the world to speak of (Kandahar comes to mind) and the locals would'nt really appreciate us cutting down the trees that are there for diesel!

When you put it that way - cutting down trees to make them into diesel - I can see the greens going for this already!

Like everything else, there is no "perfect" solution. Waiting 20 years is of course what might happen in the normal course of events, but should an oil shock hit in the next few years, then what are we going to do with the ready sources of diesel dried up and nothing yet on line to replace it? The wholesale conversion of the CF to bio-diesel will take a long time to do, but having a few units around for testing and able to press them into emergency service would certainly add flexibility to any plan.

The lack of biomass in places like Khandahar or Dafur is a limiting factor, although it would be interesting to see if these sorts of conversion plants can utilize some of the garbage and sewage that the task force puts out. That would be a neat and efective way of taking care of a number of problems at once! An alternative source of biomass would be to pay the local poppy farmers more to harvest the whole plants and bring them in than the various warlords are willing to pay....another two for one deal.
 
Good reply Majoor.

To add. Not everyone is going to be able to use biomass diesel. But if the majority of the 1st world changes over to some kind of alternative fuel source, it would not be long after before other nations follow and everyone is on the same playing field or close enough to it to make a major difference.

As for the finding of biomass other then trees? I would think that would be relatively easy since there are so many waste products from so many industries that could be used towards such. Not to mention in Kandahar's case, such as growing something other then poppies (drugs) for use to not only feed the population, but to create fuel for their vehicles and industry.

This is all pipe dreams of course until it is made to work in an economical fashion.
 
Majoor

We still need to concentrate our efforts on perfecting the technology that we have. An excellent example is the boosting of diesel engines with natural gas or propane, increasing fuel efficiency without an unproven and expensive new technology. This is an under - utilised but effective technology that we already have access to.

As for acquiring a test unit. We have a nuclear reactor in Kingston, the slowpoke. Not really used for anything, because it was acquired when the tecnology was not perfected, and on too small a scale to be useful.

Deployments are already burdened with enough kit to transport, so when bio - diesel works - I'll be using it, but until then, let industry sort it out. If the CF purchased every new technology out there we would have Ballard fuel cells lying around right now!

Finally, the title of this thread is "imported oil and the threat to our security" Bio diesel is a threat to any oil exporting nation, as it threatens a lucrative and strategic export. Since we export oil, an abundance of renewable hydrocarbons will only degrade the Canadian oil industry.
Just a thought.
 
Since the United States spends about $100 billion on imported oil every year, going to alternative sources puts that amount of money safely outside the hands of Saudi sheiks, Iranian Mullahs and other unfriendly people who invest that wealth in ways that are not to our mutual benefit. I would personally bet on oil sand as the best short term resource, and that benefits Canada as well.

Bio diesel is intriguing, since it is independent of actual mines or wells, and it is "near term" enough to give some serious attention to. Reading some technical papers on bio diesel reveals that this fuel can be added to ordinary diesel in a ratio of 20:80 biodiesel/oil diesel without any changes to the engine or fueling infrastructure (i.e. storage tanks and bowser's). Higher concentrations of bio diesel require the seals in the fuel system be made of different material (much like air conditioners have different sealing material since Freon was banned), so there would be some cost in the changeover. In the short term, being able to create our own fuel from waste material provides a form of local security; CF Bases or task forces deploying with a bio diesel generator have the local security of their fuel supply for a limited time.

Bio diesel adoption on a large scale would impact our oil industry along with the rest of the global market, but on the other hand, the prairies produce vast quantities of bio mass, even here in SW Ontario, fully 80% of the corn and soy crop is devoted to animal feed, which can be diverted to the fuel stream. The farm industry will generate the net gain that the oil industry will loose.

Incidentally, the CF does purchase a lot of new technologies for trials and evaluations, and indeed DRES is one of the R&D leaders in Canada, we don't just buy stuff, we invent it as well. (Sadly, most of the really good inventions are sold to the Americans, as we cannot afford to bring it into production.) See http://www.dres.dnd.ca/
 
Majoor

The number one investment destination for all of the oil producing world is - you guessed it, the USA. While oil money is directed towards terrorist activities, the majority of it ends up back in North America as invested dollars. Rather than a parasitic arrangement, the US-OPEC axis is more symbiotic than anything.

As I said before, the CF should not even consider bio-diesel until it is perfected by private industry, and is a replacement for oil, not an additive, the last thing we need is make alterations to our equipment, only to have the technology flop, and require changing back, or be trapped using obsolete technology.

As for the farm industry making up the net loss that the oil industry loses? Where do you think that the "biomass" comes from, or goes right now? It is eaten, by the animals that provide us with food. "Diverting" our food supply into diesel production is hardly a sound alternative to high fuel prices!

As for trials and evaluations, great idea. We can put a bio diesel reactor in DND HQ, and all of our leaders can drive Bio-diesel fuelled LSVWs, as a testament to the R and D leadership of DRES.
 
Dakota Gasification Company

FY 2005 revenues: $234.5 million
Employees: 700
CO2 stored underground: Six million tons

On september 14, 2000, the Dakota Gasification Company moved beyond survival. The company's one-of-a-kind chemical plant in Beulah, ND--an industrial beast that converts 18,000 tons of lignite coal into 170 million cubic feet of synthetic natural gas per day (enough to heat 2,500 homes for a year)--had been written off 15 years earlier as a government-financed boondoggle, a misbegotten product of crisis-driven U.S. energy policies. But the determined subsidiary of a rural utility defied its critics. That September day, the company took a dirty by-product--carbon dioxide--and made it a financial asset by turning on a new CO2 pipeline. Not only would the move secure the plant's viability, but it would also help clean up the environmental reputation of coal power.

Dakota Gasification operates a 300-kilometer pipeline full of carbon dioxide. This river of pollution heads north from Beulah to the aging oil fields of southeastern Saskatchewan. There the CO2 plunges a kilometer and a half below the earth's surface into thick, stubborn oil deposits. The CO2 cuts the oil's viscosity by a factor of four and eases its flow to the surface. Beulah's CO2 is expected to help extract 130 million extra barrels of oil from the Saskatchewan oil fields, for which Dakota is well compensated. Once in the ground, the carbon dioxide takes the petroleum's place, becoming trapped beneath an impermeable stack of limestone, sandstone, and shale. The process safely buries more CO2 in a year than a hundred thousand cars release in their operational lifetime.

Policymakers are increasingly looking to Dakota's technology as the potential key to clean domestic power in the future. The Bush administration has advanced coal gasification and underground storage of greenhouse gases as a long-term solution to a long-term problem. The U.S. Department of Energy is championing a 10-year R&D program, dubbed FutureGen, that is aimed at perfecting a task that Dakota is currently accomplishing with technology that dates from the 1970s. "FutureGen is promoting technology that hasn't even been demonstrated at small pilot plants," says Dale Simbeck, vice president of technology for SFA Pacific, an energy consultancy based in Mountain View, CA. "But here's a large-scale operation that's technically successful and that's doing all these things that are being talked about."

Al Lukes, Dakota's chief operating officer, says he's used to the surprised reactions of international visitors who come to see what's happening in the northern plains: "People look at us and say, 'My God, you can do that?'"

As Dakota's story spreads, policymakers face an increasingly stark choice. The International Energy Agency projects that enough coal plants to produce 1,400 gigawatts of electricity will have been installed between 2003 and 2030. These plants will generate about 118 billion tons of carbon dioxide over their operating lifetimes. That's more than all carbon emissions from coal over the past 250 years combined. Even some pragmatic environmentalists agree that gasification technology may be the biggest single lever available for limiting greenhouse gases over the near term. "The coal is going to be mined. The only question is how it's going to be burned," says Antonia Herzog, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental advocacy group based in Washington, DC. "If new coal plants are going to be built, they should be gasification plants."

Dakota by Default

Dakota Gasification was conceived during the energy shortages of the 1970s. While OPEC squeezed oil supplies, price controls in the United States choked production of natural gas. Natural-gas-pipeline firms, alarmed by tight supplies, began exploring alternative sources; by 1978, a consortium of gas pipeline companies, Great Plains Gasification Associates, had coalesced to build the world's first synthetic natural-gas plant. Construction commenced in 1981 after President Reagan agreed to backstop the technologically ambitious project with federal loan guarantees, and in 1984 it was complete. Barely a year later, the gas pipeline companies bailed out, defaulting on $1.5 billion in loans.

The problem wasn't Great Plains' technology. Its process, adapted from the chemistry that enabled Nazi Germany to produce synthetic motor fuels, worked as designed: Coal and steam reacted together at 1,000 °C to yield a gaseous mixture of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and CO2 (plus contaminants such as sulfur, mercury, and xenon gas). Pure CO2 and contaminant streams were bled off, and the remaining carbon monoxide and hydrogen--a mixture known as synthesis gas or "syngas"--was fed to a catalyst to form hydrocarbons. The Nazis' catalysts turned out fuel for tanks, planes, and submarines; Great Plains' catalyst turned out high-quality methane.

Lukes, a chemical engineer who returned to his native North Dakota to work for Great Plains, says what upended the company was directional drilling and the deregulation of natural gas, which took place over several years, beginning in 1978. Deregulation unleashed a frenzied search for new gas deposits, and directional drilling multiplied each well's output. Great Plains expected to fetch $9 to $10 per thousand cubic feet for its synthetic gas, but by the mid-1980s, a gas glut had driven prices as low as $1 per thousand cubic feet. "No way could we make gas for that price," says Lukes.

The plant was earning revenue, but at its owners' expense: thanks to pricing formulas written into their 25-year gas purchase agreement, the pipelines paid Great Plains upward of 50 percent more than the market price for natural gas.

The Department of Energy took possession of Great Plains when the pipeline companies walked away. Under pressure to protect 822 jobs in economically depressed North Dakota and to recoup some of the government's losses, the agency allowed the plant to keep operating. But it immediately began looking for a buyer. In 1988 it found the Basin Electric Power Cooperative of Bismarck, the local utility that powered the plant. Basin Electric stood to lose $37 million a year--about 8 percent of its annual revenues--if the plant closed. That $37 million "was a big number for Basin back then," says Lukes. Basin acquired the plant for $85 million in cash (and a promise to share future profits with the Department of Energy) and created a subsidiary, Dakota Gasification, to run it.

It was a risky move for Basin. In the years after the purchase, political support for alternative energy wavered. Gas prices slid. And the gas pipelines litigated their gas purchase agreements, forcing a settlement that would strip Dakota's protective price premium by the late 1990s.

One Company's Trash

Dakota survived by becoming a recycler: the by-products of its waste streams bring in more than $150,000 a day. And its most lucrative by-product--the one that finally secured its future--is carbon dioxide.

Scrubbing oil out with CO2 isn't as lucrative as striking a major new field. "The big-name oil companies don't go after these. These are like bunts, and they're looking for home runs," says SFA Pacific's Simbeck. But the bunts are worth making for the second-tier oil companies that now dominate U.S. and Canadian oil production. Put the CO2 in the ground, and you're likely to get more oil--that is, if you have CO2. Most carbon dioxide used in oil fields comes from natural deposits of either CO2 on its own or CO2 entrained with natural gas. Oil-field operators north of Beulah had neither.

By the mid-1990s, Dakota looked like a survivor, and Calgary, Alberta-based PanCanadian Petroleum, the operator of one of Canada's largest oil fields, was ready to negotiate. Production at PanCanadian's field in Weyburn, Saskatchewan, peaked in the 1960s, but company geologists believed that CO2 would rev it back up. Under a 1997 deal, Dakota built gas compressors and a pipeline to deliver the CO2 to Weyburn, and PanCanadian agreed to pay Dakota for financing costs on the equipment, plus pay a demand charge. In February, Dakota signed up a second Saskatchewan oil producer, Apache Canada, which will begin taking CO2 next year.

Judy Fairburn, a vice president of operations for EnCana (PanCanadian's new name after merging with Calgary-based Alberta Energy), says that buying Dakota's CO2 increased production costs at Weyburn, and that PanCanadian predicated its investment on receiving $16 to $18 a barrel. That was a good bet: oil now fetches about $50 a barrel, and Weyburn is delivering 26,000 barrels per day--its highest level since the 1970s. "This oil field is definitely into its second wind," says Fairburn.

With natural gas selling at $7 per thousand cubic feet, Dakota is looking good, too. Asked if Dakota might be out-earning its oil-field customers, Fairburn nervously laughs. "I'll have to calculate that," she says. "They're certainly well positioned."

They are--and not just because of what they are helping to take out of the ground. As the oil rises in the Great Plains, Dakota Gasification's industrial CO2 is pooling underground, creating an environmental benefit that could be worth millions of dollars more in years ahead, if the United States ever decides to adopt a cap-and-trade emissions policy. A $34 million research study sponsored by the International Energy Agency has been tracking the CO2 underground. Its final report, released last fall, confirmed what everyone expected: the same strata that sealed in Weyburn's oil for 50 million years should hold its CO2 for thousands of years, if not longer.

Gasification is again in the spotlight, and not just because of its ability to store away greenhouse gases. Today's record-high natural-gas prices show no signs of slipping, despite record levels of gas exploration in North America. And the technology is improving. Dozens of gasification plants have been built since 1984--most of which turn coal-derived syngas into ammonia fertilizers--and their cutting-edge power equipment costs less to build and operate than Dakota's. Major suppliers of the equipment, like General Electric, are taking orders for more. Dakota was not only lucky in its decades-long struggle to prove the viability of coal gasification, it was also right.
 
No Blood for Oil
Lets cut terror's lifeline.

So after London, what next? Al Qaeda may seek to target our energy supply. Last February a message was posted to the al Qaeda-affiliated al Qalah (the Fortress) website entitled "Map of Future al Qaeda Operations." It stated among other things that the terrorists would make it a priority to attack oil facilities in the Middle East. According to the posting, attacking the U.S. energy base in the Gulf would have three effects: Damaging the American economy; embarrassing the United States and emboldening other countries seeking to secure their own energy supplies; and forcing the U.S. to deploy further troops to the region to stabilize the situation. "The U.S. will reach a stage of madness after the targeting of its oil interests," the terrorists reason, "which will facilitate the creation of a new front and the drowning of the U.S. in a new quagmire that will be worse than the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan."

Al Qaeda has long resented the "unfair" prices being paid for oil â ” bin Laden reckoned at one time that a just price would be around $200 per barrel. In his 1996 Declaration of War he advised the mujahedeen "to protect this [oil] wealth and not to include it in the battle as it is a great Islamic treasure and a large economical power essential for the soon to be established Islamic state, by Allah's Permission and Grace." Yet in December 2001, after the defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan, bin Laden ordered that the U.S. economy should be the main focus of al Qaeda operations, and the terrorists have correctly diagnosed that the way to accomplish this is through targeting energy. Last December bin Laden called on terrorists to "strike supply routes and oil lines ... and to assassinate company owners who provide the enemy with supplies, whether in Riyadh, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey, or other places."

The terrorists understand that they can influence oil markets through directed violence, and thus exploit a U.S. critical vulnerability. Furthermore, the more money the United States sends to the region purchasing energy, the more is available to underwrite the terrorists and their beliefs by their state sponsors and other supporters in the region. This is an enduring pattern; since the oil shocks of the 1970s, the United States has sent uncounted billions of dollars into a region that has converted them into weapons of mass destruction programs, globally networked terrorist groups, and a hostile, internationally promoted anti-Western ideology.

In short, our dependence on energy from the Middle East has created a grave threat to our country, and because we are obligated to protect these energy sources, the threat will continue. Our military presence and occasional interventions to protect energy supplies cost billions of dollars and increases tensions in the region by giving the opponents of the United States targets to attack, and the means to substantiate their charges of "Western imperialism." The situation presents a paradox â ” we need to be there because of the threat to our energy supplies, but our presence incites our enemies to greater efforts against us.

The terrorists have integrated energy into their war-fighting plan, but unfortunately, the United States has no comprehensive means to counter it. The U.S. has many energy policies, but no coherent long-term energy-security strategy. However, a combination of rising oil prices and instability abroad is giving the issue political traction. Even former President Bill Clinton has stated that energy independence is vital to our national security and that "it's nuts that we're not doing it." (A shame he hadn't come to that conclusion when he might have been able to do something about it.)

The first step to adopting a comprehensive energy strategy is understanding that energy is both a critical requirement for the U.S. economy, and also an element of national power. The United States is a major energy consumer, and has unrealized potential as a directed market force. The United States should exploit its power by exercising consumer preference, and imposing free market discipline on the oil bazaar. The OPEC cartel would be the ultimate target of this strategic focus; though OPEC's influence has declined in recent years, it is still powerful enough to adjust oil prices to the benefit of its members, and the detriment of the energy consuming countries. Diminishing or ending OPEC's influence over the oil market would be one strategic goal. This could be accomplished through a variety of mechanisms, from tax incentives for non-OPEC purchases, to diplomatic action to separate wavering cartel members, to outright restrictions on importation of OPEC oil.

The United States should also integrate energy into its geostrategic understanding of the world, and begin to shift purchases away from unstable regions such as the Middle East, and towards sources in Europe, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. Dollars flowing to Canada or Norway, for example, are unlikely to be converted into national security threats. This is related to the abovementioned point about breaking the power of the cartel, since shifting purchases away from the Middle East often (though of course not always) means shifting away from OPEC.

On the domestic front, a national energy strategy would require a revamped Department of Energy with a more urgent focus on energy security. The Environmental Protection Agency would also have to come under scrutiny; all future EPA actions should be judged against their negative impact on national security, perhaps through mandatory "energy impact study" oversight provisions. An interagency working group could convene to review policies across government that impede the development of new energy sources and technologies, looking particularly at unnecessary environmental regulation and tax disincentives. For example, the thermal depolymerization process (TDP), which can convert medical waste (among other things) into crude oil, is ineligible for a $42 per barrel tax credit because of how current legislation defines "biofuel." Some estimates have it that widespread use of TDP could obviate the need to import any foreign oil. Regardless of whether that claim is true, you would think that a homegrown technology that could simultaneously solve both the waste and energy problems would be something worth encouraging.

The most important aspect of the energy strategy would be the awareness of energy as an element of national power.
So long as the United States only views energy in defensive terms, we will remain trapped in a reactive strategic paradigm, responding to symptoms without addressing the causes of the threats emanating from the Middle East. Al Qaeda has demanded that the United States stop stealing the wealth of that region. Perhaps we should stop sending our national wealth to the terrorists.

â ” James S. Robbins is senior fellow in national-security affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council, a trustee for the Leaders for Liberty Foundation, and an NRO contributor.

http://www.nationalreview.com/robbins/robbins200507120857.asp
 
Sadly some people still don't "get it", and would like to see oil and energy use limited to support spurious claims rather than adjusting production to strengthen the Western economies and strangle the economies of terror supporting states. An all out program to develop the tar sands, modern nuclear power stations, a highly distributed generating and distribution system, "real" alternative energy like OTEC which can generate megawatts of energy is what is needed.

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/view372.html#slacker

US: Environmental Slacker, or Feinstein, Political Hack?

The Monday, July 25, LA Times op ed page features an article by Senator Dianne Feinstein entitled "U.S. an environmental slacker." While writers are not responsible for headlines, this one is a fair summary. (I have searched for this article on line but apparently it isn't up yet; when it is I'll put the URL here.)

She opens: "Polar ice caps are shrinking, glaciers are melting, and coastlines are falling away. the culprit? Global warming caused by burning fossil fuels. Unless we take strong action, these conditions will only get worse.

"For too long, the Bush administration has led people to believe that this isn't happening, and if it was, the remedies would only hurt our economy. The administration's inaction on global warming ignores the findings of scientist throughout the world, and could imperil both our nation and the rest of the globe."

It continues in that vein for some time, and, surprisingly endorses the Kyoto Accords. It does not, surprisingly, endorse nuclear power plants or space power satellites as an alternative to fossil fuel. It does conclude "It is truly shameful that the biggest industrialized nation on Earth is leaving it up to individual, cities, and states to take action on global warming." And of course calls for federal action.

This is shameful on several levels. Either Feinstein is an idiot, or she is mendacious. One also wonders just how large an interest her husband holds in Chinese companies, which would benefit enormously from US adoption of the Kyoto accords (as would a number of other "developing" countries which are pretty well exempt from the disasters Kyoto would impose if adopted). Of course she must know there is no actual chance of the US Senate adopting the Kyoto accords, so she isn't averse to making a bit of political hay out of this bed of tares.

At this point one understands the temptation to agree when people say "How do you know when a politician is lying? His lips are moving." Or hers.

So. Is there global warming? Certainly. We knew that in childhood. The Hudson doesn't freeze solid any longer, and the brackish canals of Holland don't freeze hard enough to skate on every winter. The glaciers are retreating. The Earth is warming and it has been since about 1800, with an acceleration in about 1875, and another acceleration in the early part of the XXth Century.

Do greenhouse gasses contribute to it? They certainly should. Arrhenius calculated the probable effects before World War I, and for all the sophistication of climate models there wasn't a lot of progress for a hundred years after his calculations.

How much do they contribute, and will Kyoto do much to stop things?  Unknown, and no.

Don't all scientists say the opposite?  No. There is a consensus that the Earth is warming, having been colder from about 1400 to 1800 (and having been warmer than now from about 800 to 1300). There isn't a lot of dissent from that view. There is a consensus that CO2 contributes to warming; there is no consensus on just how much it contributes; and there is none whatever among scientists that Kyoto will do a damned thing except enrich some people, beggar others, slow down the industrialized nations' economies, and employ a lot of "regulatory scientists" -- the kind of bureaucrats who gravitate into regulatory agencies and give themselves titles generally using the word "scientist" but who do no science. (See Edith Effrom The Apocalyptics for a good description of what these people do.)

Should we be doing something about this uncontrolled experiment of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere? Are there not some potentially disastrous scenarios? Might we not trigger something irretrievable?  Possibly; which is why we should be devoting a lot of effort and resources into (1) recording exactly what is happening including geological and astrophysical changes, and (2) developing real alternatives to fossil fuels. Nuclear power comes to mind. If Feinstein had used her scare tactics to get people on her side of the fence to stop opposing nuclear power, she would still be mendacious but at least she'd be trying to do something useful. Her present stance is just silly.

But then her lips are moving...

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Subject: Feinstein - GW

Diane Feinstein and Global warming/Kyoto

She also is a hypocrite.

Remember the 1997 Senate resolution that passed 97-0 telling Gore and the other negotiators not to accept the Kyoto treaty if it failed to include China and India participation.

She was not among the 3 missing votes.
 
Link to a round-up of alternative energy ideas. Greens take note: most of the practical plans involve using current hydrocarbon energy resources more effectively. Phillips is introducing a high efficiency wood stove, for example. The law of unintended consequences makes an appearance here as well; ethanol plants in the US are powered by coal due to the rising cost of natural gas (heh). This only reinforces the idea ethanol is not a viable alternative fuel anyway.

Long link, but well worth reading: http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/008392.php



 
In further thinking about the use of diesel in the near term and future, Mr. Diesel when he had designed the diesel engine - it ran off of peanut oil and other oils
http://www.ybiofuels.org/bio_fuels/history_diesel.html
It was in the 1920's that the engine designed changed to accomadate fossil fuel - after the patents had been bought up by automakers and the oil industry tycoons
*and conspiracy theorists will argue that it was the oil and auto industry that forced this change in design, and that it was not because of some of the problems of the biofuel...

So I'm wondering today, how might alternative fuel be created when it is still the automakers in partnership with and/or owned by the Oil industry megacorporations who happen to be enjoying very large record shattering profits.
I think what needs to happen is that there needs to be more independant research and development/improvement of technologies - of course there is the funding issue - and the concerns of the industries to prevent a loss of their profits, but without this major push - prices will continue to rise as demand skyrockets and increases in all the countries that are increasingly becoming industrial.
 
Record shattering profits are what attracts people into business. If you can create and sell some sort of oil substitute, you will be able to get about $60 USD/bbl, and it shouldn't be too difficult to find a "captive" market like your local municipality or transit company who might find a reliable source of fuel for a fixed cost attractive.

Of course, your process will have to cost less than that, but this should encourage the smart people reading this board.....
 
I have a one word solution...

COAL.

Of course, Coal is a four letter word in the  DPRO (Democratic Peoples Republic of Ontario), but with proven German technology, it can be burned cleaner to power our cities and the tar sands, as well as 'coal liquifaction'.

Alberta will run out of oil long before she runs out of coal.
 
In either scenario, Tom, we will be all long dead, and it will be the problem of some future generations, who will probably have harnessed fusion.  ;D
 
We all need one of those "Mr. Fusion 2" under our hoods, like in BTTF.  Give the stinking hillbillies someplace to dump their stinking ashtrays other than all over the Timmies parking lot.  Bloody stinking Phillistines...
 
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