Instability In Pakistan- Merged Thread

[Xiang]

Remember that the Taliban are a creature of the ISI....we do not hear anything being done about them do we?....

The Pakistani Taleban are a different entity from the Afghan one (which received ISI support)

They both often fought for control of tribal Pashtun areas and only in 2006 did they decide to finally join forces.

Also, the Taliban inside Pakistan are funded by foreign nations (India being one of them) while the Taliban in Afghanistan were for the most part funded by Pakistan.

 

[tomahawk6]

They also have one thing in common - they are fundamentalists and have a common goal. The Pakistani's have not been very serious about rooting out the taliban and have made a show of fighting them for the benefit of the US. They want the flow of money to continue without trying to stop the taliban from entering Afghanistan. They cant even secure the MSR into Afghanistan. The Pakistani government I think has ceded control of the tribal areas to the taliban. Its a foolish game they are playing and one that could see them swinging from lamp posts after the taliban take over. Here is a very instructive article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/magazine/07pakistan-t.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&ref=world

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Pakistani Taleban are a different entity from the Afghan one (which received ISI support)

They both often fought for control of tribal Pashtun areas and only in 2006 did they decide to finally join forces.

Also, the Taliban inside Pakistan are funded by foreign nations (India being one of them) while the Taliban in Afghanistan were for the most part funded by Pakistan.

While the Taliban are made up of various groups and the foot soldiers are often local recruitment, the leadership core still seems to be Omar and his close followers. What happens in Afghanistan and Pakistan is linked. Perhaps the ISI wanted one group to control the FATA/NWF but things got out of hand, the Taliban seem to have a history of not following their backers plans and the ISI was not always able to influence the leadership of the Taliban (example: ISI tried to get the Taliban to mediate with various groups during their takeover of Afghanistan, but failed to get agreements with the Iranians, Hazara, etc) 
Do you have any source documents or links to back up the claim that the Indians are supporting the Taliban? Since India is supporting the Afghan government and has had it’s people killed by the Taliban in Afghanistan, I will take your claims with a bag of salt. One of the problems is that politics there are so convoluted it’s really hard to divine the truth from all of the OPSEC, lies, misdirection’s and betrayals done by all sides. 

 

[Xiang]

Unfortunately, I do not have anything that would constitute iron clad proof that India has been involved in some of the funding the Taliban within Pakistan receive.

It was just common knowledge among the people there unfortunately.

Both countries deny they do it, but both countries have funded terrorist groups inside each others countries.  Pakistan has been known to fund and arm the rebels inside Kashmir, against India.

 

[Xiang]

They cant even secure the MSR into Afghanistan. The Pakistani government I think has ceded control of the tribal areas to the taliban. Its a foolish game they are playing and one that could see them swinging from lamp posts after the taliban take over.

I had spoken to a Captain in the Pakistani army during my time in Dubai not too long ago.  After striking up a conversation about how Pakistan plans on dealing with the current threat the Taliban posed, and what seemed like a lack of will and backbone Zardari seemed to have when dealing with them, he mentioned a plan he heard discussed with some of the top brass within the Pakistani military. 

Apparently in the event of an attempted full scale take over by the Taliban, the military would have a Musharraf style coup d'état and assume control of government, and go after the Taliban full force.

I found it funny he was telling me this, but after a few beers and shooters at the Juna Lounge, he would have probably given me his credit card number too.  Nothing worse than an officer who can't hold his liqueur.

But back to the point, if what this guy said was true, I don't think the Taliban have any real chance of actually taking anything that would be considered "power" in Pakistan.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Unfortunately, I do not have anything that would constitute iron clad proof that India has been involved in some of the funding the Taliban within Pakistan receive.

It was just common knowledge among the people there unfortunately.

Both countries deny they do it, but both countries have funded terrorist groups inside each others countries.  Pakistan has been known to fund and arm the rebels inside Kashmir, against India.

I don’t doubt that India has worked at causing internal issues within Pakistan, but helping the Taliban would be quite counter productive to their mission in Kashmir. They might have helped a group that is currently aligned with the Taliban, but I would see that it would be more productive for them to foster unrest in Punjab and in Balochistan, using the non Pastun populations in order to distract Pakistan from the Kashmir issue.

As for the army taking over the government, that would be easily done but would not solve the major issues facing Pakistan, the Taliban have been exploiting the social issues, namely the fact that few of the people working the land own any of it. Even though the army will eventually win, the cost will be high, the Taliban have been fighting some of the best armies in the world and have been learning from it. They have and will exploit tactical errors by the Pakistan army, who likely have not been incorprating some of the hard won lessons of the west. As I mentioned there are questions about the loyality of the rank and file of the army in regards to fighting what may be felt (rightly or wrongly) as a civil war upon their brethern on behalf of the west. Thankfully the Taliban are their own worst enemy and can’t seem to help oppressing the people who intially support them. The Pakistan government really needs to exploit this weakness of the Taliban and expose them as the greater evil.

 

[Xiang]

Even though the army will eventually win, the cost will be high, the Taliban have been fighting some of the best armies in the world and have been learning from it. They have and will exploit tactical errors by the Pakistan army, who likely have not been incorprating some of the hard won lessons of the west

True.  As far as I know, there is no doctrine employed by the pakistani Army regarding counter insurgency operations.  Their doctrine still revolves around pitch battles with India.

Thankfully the Taliban are their own worst enemy and can’t seem to help oppressing the people who intially support them.

Exactly, which is why loyalty will not be an issue within the Pakistani military.  They are now quite content with the way things are as opposed to living under the warped version of Shira law the Taliban were imposing, as is the population.

As I mentioned there are questions about the loyality of the rank and file of the army in regards to fighting what may be felt (rightly or wrongly) as a civil war upon their brethern on behalf of the west.

There has been a major shift in opinion regarding the Taliban and fighting against them recently.

You were correct in questioning the loyalty of the military when engaging the Taliban (this being more serious within the Frontier Guard corps, given the majority of them are of the same ethnicity as the Taliban), however since the Swat take over, and the true colours of the Taliban displayed for all to see, the people are no longer seeing support for the Taliban as their way of protesting their governments campaign to appease the West and are actively turning to the government and military for support.

Before the current operation being conducted, during the Taliban advance out of Swat, people in surrounding provinces had been preparing to take up arms in the event of a situation where the military did not respond.

Fortunately they did, and were able to push back, and continue to push back, the Taliban.

 

[CougarKing]

And the Pakistani Army campaign against the Taliban continues.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090520/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan

By ZARAR KHAN, Associated Press Writer Zarar Khan, Associated Press Writer – 21 mins ago
ISLAMABAD – Pakistani troops killed 80 militants and drove the Taliban from a major urban stronghold on Wednesday, the army said, as U.S. military planes brought aid for refugees fleeing fierce fighting across the northwest.
One soldier was killed and nine seriously wounded as troops battled insurgents still holding several other towns in the neighboring Swat Valley, a military spokesman said.

Pakistani troops launched an offensive last month after Taliban militants based in Swat pushed into Buner, bringing them within 60 miles (100 kilometers) of the capital of Islamabad and prompting intense U.S. pressure for a stiff response.

Government forces cleared Sultanwas, the main Taliban-held town in Buner, overnight following intense clashes, army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said.

He said troops destroyed several vehicles used by black-clad militants and defused a string of homemade bombs.

"Sultanwas was the main stronghold of terrorist-miscreants in Buner, where they have made concrete underground bunkers and ammunition dumps," Abbas said.

The army claims it has killed more than 1,000 militants and re-claimed swaths of territory recently seized by the militants.

However, the clashes have prompted some 1.5 million people to flee their homes, a humanitarian emergency that could sap Pakistani enthusiasm for similar action against other Taliban and al-Qaida sanctuaries near the Afghan border.

Relatives have taken in many of those fleeing. However, more than 100,000 refugees are housed in sweltering camps south of the war zone.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced Tuesday that Washington would provide $110 million in immediate humanitarian assistance to Pakistan.

As part of that effort, two American military planes touched down on Wednesday at an air base near Islamabad laden with supplies including air-conditioned tents and 120,000 pre-packed meals, the U.S. Embassy said.

 

[MarkOttawa]

A post at The Torch:

Canada/Pakistan: Globeites cooking up controversy
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/05/canadapakistan-globeites-cooking-up.html

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Xiang]

Interesting developments.  I wonder how this will bide for our soldiers on the ground in Afghanistan.

Pakistani troops encircle Taliban base in Swat

Updated Fri. May. 22 2009 1:03 PM ET

The Associated Press

KHWAZAKHELA, Pakistan -- Troops are encircling Taliban militants in their mountain base as well as the main town in the Swat Valley, a Pakistani general said Friday, as the UN appealed for $543 million to ease the suffering of nearly 2 million refugees from the fighting.

Elsewhere in the northwest, a car bomb exploded close to a movie theater in the city of Peshawar, killing at least four people and wounding 20 others, witnesses and police office Noor Khan said. It was unclear who was behind the attack, but militants have targeted movie theaters before in the region, believing them to be un-Islamic.

With skepticism growing about the progress of the month-old army offensive in the northwestern region, the army flew a handful of reporters from foreign news organizations into Swat on Friday.

An Associated Press reporter aboard the helicopter saw no cars and few people in the town of Mingora or on roads farther up the valley, a former tourist haven just 60 miles (100 kilometers) from the capital, Islamabad.

From the air, there was little evidence of the fierce fighting and airstrikes that the military claims have already killed more than 1,000 militants as well as some 60 soldiers.

But a senior commander insisted the army was trapping militants in Mingora and Piochar, a side-valley farther north that is the stronghold of Swat Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah.

"The noose is tightening around them. Their routes of escape have been cut off," Maj. Gen. Sajad Ghani said. "It's just a question of time before (Taliban leaders) are eliminated."

Pakistan launched an offensive last month to halt a Taliban advance from Swat toward the capital, Islamabad, that prompted U.S. warnings about the stability of the nuclear-armed country.

While the U.S. has praised the military operation, it is also contributing to a gathering effort to shield the government from the political fallout from the humanitarian crisis.

Officials say 1.9 million people have fled the fighting. More than 160,000 are staying in sweltering camps just south of the battle zone. The rest have been taken in by relatives.

The United Nations said its appeal would help provide food, schooling and health care to the multitude displaced from the Swat area and by fighting in other border regions last year.

"The scale of this displacement is extraordinary in terms of size and speed and has caused incredible suffering," said Martin Mogwanja, the acting U.N. humanitarian coordinator in Pakistan. "We are calling for generous support from the international community."

The U.N. said the figure included some $88 million from the United States, which this week pledged total assistance of $110 million in emergency aid.

The government said Thursday that international donors had pledged a total of $224 million. Pakistan, which is heavily dependent on foreign aid, has pledged $100 million of its own.

The Obama administration has declared eliminating militant havens in Pakistan vital to its goals of defeating al-Qaida and winning the war in Afghanistan.

But an army failure or a botched relief effort in Swat would further undermine Pakistani enthusiasm for tough military action inside its own borders.

The army claims to have won back swaths of territory in Swat, which was popular with tourists before the Taliban took over, enforcing a hardline brand of Islamic law and beheading opponents.

However, it faces stiff resistance from thousands more fighters and has ventured no prediction of when the Taliban will be defeated.

Ghani, the commander of military operations in the upper portion of the Swat valley, sought Friday to counter allegations that many civilians had died in army shelling. Reporters are unable to work in the war zone, making it difficult to verify accounts of the fighting.

Only ground troops were operating in residential areas and the number of innocents killed in the area under his responsibility had "not reached double figures," he said.

Violence is also rising in the tribal regions along the Afghan border from where Taliban and al-Qaida militants launch attacks on both sides of the frontier.

On Thursday, a suicide car bomber attacked a paramilitary fort in the town of Jandola, killing four soldiers and four civilians, intelligence officials said.

 

[Yrys]

Pakistan army vows Swat victory, Saturday, 23 May 2009 17:25 UK

A large Pakistani flag flaps in the wind atop a tree-covered mountain.

Just metres away, soldiers are crouching behind sandbags to command a view of the
stunning Swat valley - a river winding past green orchards and golden wheat fields,
surrounded by snow-capped peaks.

The army has brought journalists to this 7,000-foot ridge known as Baini Baba Ziarat to
showcase what it says is a major victory in its battle against Taliban militants who had
overrun Pakistan's north-west Swat region. In the past two years the army has twice
failed to defeat the Taliban of Swat. But this time will be different, it says.

We are told these heights were a strategic location for guerrilla fighters.

"It was important to deny them the vantage point from where they had uninterrupted
communications," says Brig Ajab Khan, brigade commander for a part of northern, or
upper, Swat. "The ridge also dominated the area as an observation point. In addition
it was a safe haven, so it had to be taken and destroyed."

We are shown a sophisticated network of bunkers and tunnels, supplied with electricity
and water. One soldier points out two flat green patches of grass as the places where
the Taliban trained. Earlier the army had presented a frightened, 15-year-old school
boy. He told journalists he had been forcibly recruited as a Taliban fighter and ordered
to become a suicide bomber. He said he had escaped during the military operation.

Mingora offensive

We skirt around craters punched into the earth by heavy artillery, fired from nearby
mountains as troops scaled the heights to capture the ridge in "less than a day". The
commanding officer in charge of the Upper Swat operations, Maj Gen Sajjad Ghani, is
upbeat about the army's achievements. He says troops have secured the town of Matte,
the Taliban's administrative centre, and are closing in on a key militant stronghold in
the remote Peochar Valley.

Further south, we were told, soldiers had encircled the main city of Mingora, the
Taliban's urban base, and are poised to start the offensive. It began less than 24 hours
after our visit. The army acknowledges there can be no purely military victory against
the Taliban. In the past, the militants exploited a weak civil administration and judiciary
to ride to power on popular calls for Islamic law.

Peace deals with the government had interrupted two previous army operations, providing
"the other side with time to rearm, reassert, reorganise, and return to the valley", says
Maj Gen Athar Abbas, an army spokesman. "That created problems for the military in the
subsequent phases of the operation." He notes that lack of public support, due to "death,
damage, destruction and displacement", had created a political consensus in favour of
peace talks.

But now, the Taliban have been "politically disarmed and isolated", Gen Abbas says. People
"saw their real face, and realised their aims" when they continued to challenge the state,
even after the introduction of Islamic law in Swat, he adds.

'Small steps'

Clearly, the army has been bolstered by political support.

"There is a national will," Maj Gen Ghani said. "The operations have been endorsed by
parliament, the entire nation is behind this operation."

And this time the army will stay to provide a security umbrella so that the police and
civil administration have time to recover.

But public support is fragile. In previous military actions in Pakistan's northwest it was
lost by army measures that left many dead and whole villages destroyed. This time too,
fleeing residents describe seeing unburied bodies in fields and ditches.

The generals dismiss these reports. They insist they are taking great care to avoid
civilian casualties. As much as 90% of Mingora's population fled ahead of the fighting,
they say.

Still, surveying the Swat valley from the ridge, Brig Khan is cautious about issuing
any claims of victory. "In an insurgency environment it's always small, small steps
which ultimately lead to the resolution of the problem," he says. "I can say the Taliban
have suffered a serious setback, but the threat is dynamic and it keeps evolving."

Pakistan's army says it has denied
the Taliban this vantage point

 

[Yrys]

Pakistan army 'in Taliban city', Saturday, 23 May 2009 20:32 UK

The army says it has cut off
the militants' supply routes

Fierce fighting is taking place between Pakistani troops and Taliban militants in Mingora,
the main city in the militant-controlled Swat valley. At least 17 militants have been killed
in the clashes, the army says. The Taliban deny the deaths.

The push into Mingora is seen as a key phase of an offensive aimed at crushing the
militants, whose influence extends across a wide area of the north-west. The fighting began
after a peace deal broke down earlier this month. "Street fights have begun," Maj Gen Athar
Abbas told reporters. He said soldiers had cleared parts of the city, but added that the pace
of the offensive was "painfully slow". "This is an extremely difficult, extremely dangerous
operation, because clearance has to be done street by street, house by house."

The military says the city is surrounded, most of the militants' ammunition dumps are
destroyed and their supply routes cut off. The BBC's Shoaib Hassan, in Islamabad, says it is
the most important battle yet in the army's offensive against the Taliban in Swat. A swift
victory would bolster public support for a greater fight against the militants, our
correspondent adds.

Exodus

A Taliban spokesman confirmed that the military had entered Mingora, but denied that any
militants had been killed. The spokesman also said the Taliban would fight the security
forces to their last breath. Residents say the militants are still in control of the city.

Nearly 1.5 million people have been displaced by this month's fighting in the north-western
region, and about two million since last August, the United Nations refugee agency says.
One resident who fled the Mingora area told the BBC that he was among many who had lost
everything. "Our homes were destroyed - we left behind our cattle and our properties,"
he said. "We walked all the way and had to walk for two days on the mountains."

On Friday, the UN appealed for $543m in humanitarian aid to help those displaced by the
conflict.

Pakistan's army began an offensive against the Taliban on 2 May after the peace deal broke down
and the militants began expanding their area of influence.

A recent investigation by the BBC suggested that less than half of Pakistan's North West Frontier
Province (NWFP), which contains Swat Valley, and the neighbouring Federally Administered Tribal
Areas is under full government control. In Swat, the army says that about 15,000 members of the
security forces are fighting between 4,000 and 5,000 militants.

It says more than 1,000 militants and more than 50 soldiers have been killed since the offensive
began.

 

[Yrys]

On the same subject, by NY Times :

Pakistan and Taliban Battling for Key City, Published: May 23, 2009

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan— The Pakistani military said Saturday that its troops had entered Mingora,
the largest city in the contested Swat Valley, in an effort to wrest the city from Taliban hands.
Calling it the most important part of the recent offensive against the Taliban in the region, military
officials said they were bracing for an intense, bloody fight. Seventeen militants were killed in
clashes as troops entered the city over the last 24 hours, according to a spokesman for the
Pakistani Army, though the claim could not be independently verified.

“It’s a very intense battle,” said Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, the spokesman. “Everyone is sniping one
another.”

The fight in Mingora is being seen as a test of the ability of the Pakistani military to defeat the
Taliban in Swat. Until now, the battle between the military and the Taliban was confined to the
mountainous countryside and villages of Swat.

But Mingora, about 100 miles from the capital, could prove to be the toughest challenge. Militants
have ensconced themselves in urban neighborhoods, where they command the rooftops of houses
and other buildings. As infantry troops move in, the use of aerial strikes and artillery against the
militants is constrained because of the presence of civilians in the city. Exactly how many civilians
are trapped there is unclear. Throughout the region, hundreds of thousands of residents have fled
the fighting, and there were estimates by government officials that only 10,000 residents remained
in what was recently a city of 200,000.

Still, there have been fears of large-scale civilian casualties, and the authorities have mostly barred
journalists from entering the area, making it difficult to verify what is happening. Even the military
seemed unsure of how many civilians remained. “It is difficult to estimate how many civilians or
militants are present in the city,” General Abbas said. He said that troops had captured the
Continental Hotel, a famous tourist destination, and were trying to clear neighborhoods. Intense fire
was being exchanged at one of the main intersections of the city.

One suicide bomber was killed before he could manage to blow himself up, while a vehicle laden with
explosives was destroyed, the military said. Troops had also captured Qambar Ridge, which overlooks
the city. Six militants were killed in the fighting and their bodies were lying in the open, the military said.
During search-and-destroy operations, three caves containing large quantities of ammunition and rations
were discovered, according to the Pakistani Army. Troops also managed to recapture a transmission
station along with a base unit.

The military has previously said that it had cleared militant strongholds in Khawazakhela, one of the
largest cities in Swat; Matta; and Bini Baba Ziarart, and that it was closing in on another stronghold in
Piachar, in the upper Swat Valley. Pakistani military officials said that the offensive against the Taliban
in Swat had entered a decisive phase. General Abbas said troops were consolidating their positions around
Matta, a town that the military said it had captured from the Taliban. Troops have also secured Wanai
Bridge, which links Matta with Piachar, a remote valley that is a stronghold of the militants.

General Abbas expressed confidence that the military would capture Mingora as well, but noted that it
was a difficult fight. “It is a battle,” he said.

 

[Yrys]

Pakistan army fights for key city. Sunday, 24 May 2009 11:11 UK

Pakistan's army says it has recaptured several areas of Mingora, the main city in the Swat valley,
as its offensive against the Taliban continues. A security official said soldiers were now clearing
landmines in those sections back under government control.

But clashes are still continuing with soldiers and militants engaged in hand-to-hand fighting at
some of the city's main intersections, the army says. The fighting began after a peace deal
broke down earlier this month.

Hundreds have died and over a million have fled Swat since the operation against the Taliban
was launched. The success of Pakistan's military operation in the region hinges on a swift
victory in Mingora, according to the BBC's Shoaib Hasan in Islamabad.

This fresh assault on the Taliban has the full backing of the US, which has identified Pakistan
and Afghanistan as central to the international battle against Islamist extremism.

Surrounded

Although the military has always had bases inside Mingora, the city has effectively been under
Taliban control in recent weeks. The military now says Mingora is surrounded, and most of the
militants' ammunition dumps have been destroyed.

Journalists are not being allowed near the city, so it is not possible to verify the claims.

The army has also said it has gained control of several important intersections, including Green
Square where the Taliban is thought to have carried out several beheadings. A local citizen in
Mingora confirmed this, but told the BBC that fighting was continuing around four nearby
villages : Takhtaband, Garozai, Nawakalay and Shahdara.

The military claim to have killed 17 Taliban militants - a figure the Taliban denies. The army
also said it had made progress in other parts of the Swat valley, with the city of Matta reportedly
cleared of militants. But army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas warned that the operation
in Mingora could be "painfully slow", as up to 20,000 civilians were still trapped there. "This is an
extremely difficult, extremely dangerous operation because clearance has to be done street by
street, house by house," he told reporters on Saturday.

A curfew remains in place in the city, and there are already reports of many civilian casualties,
but these cannot be independently confirmed.

Humanitarian crisis

Our correspondent says the Swat battle is the most important yet in the army's offensive against
the Taliban in north-west Pakistan. A swift victory would bolster public support for a greater fight
against the militants, our correspondent adds.

But anything other than complete victory could quickly diminish public support for the campaign,
he adds - which would be disastrous for Pakistan's fragile political coalition and the long-term war
against militancy in the region.

Nearly 1.5 million people have been displaced by this month's fighting in the north-western region,
and about two million since last August, the United Nations refugee agency says. Helped by a
massive influx of foreign aid, Pakistan has been able to deal with the situation so far, but if the
situation gets worse aid workers will find it increasingly difficult to deal with the tide of displaced
people.

In separate developments over the weekend :

    * Pakistani aircraft have bombed Taliban militants near Orakzai tribal area, killing at least seven
      people. The militants are thought to have been preparing to travel to South Waziristan on the
      Afghan border.
    * Police say a French tourist has been kidnapped by gunmen in the southern Baluchistan province.
      Four other French nationals travelling with the tourist reported the kidnapping.

Pakistan's army began an offensive against the Taliban on 2 May after the peace deal broke down
and the militants began expanding their area of influence. In Swat, the army says that about 15,000
members of the security forces are fighting between 4,000 and 5,000 militants. It says more than
1,000 militants and more than 50 soldiers have been killed since the offensive began.

 

[Yrys]

Pakistan in humanitarian aid plea, Thursday, 21 May 2009 11:56 UK

Pakistan says there is an "urgent need
for a comprehensive response"

Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani has appealed for urgent cash aid to help up
to two million people who have fled fighting with the Taliban. Addressing international
donors in Islamabad, Mr Gilani warned the mass exodus had "grave repercussions".

The UN says that about 1.5 million people have been displaced since the army's latest
offensive began on 2 May, and two million since last August. The donors have so far
responded with pledges of $224m, officials said. The fighting continues, with at least
seven people killed in Lower Dir.

'Concrete and visible'

"Given the magnitude of the task that lies ahead, the government of Pakistan would
like to seek the support from the donor community, both for the ongoing relief efforts
and for the rebuilding process," the prime minister said. "There is an urgent need for
a joint and comprehensive response to this issue by all those who are committed to
fighting terrorism. We need to do something concrete and visible."

Mr Gilani said that a special prime minister's fund had been established for the inter-
nally displaced and called for domestic and international donations.

The US has praised Pakistan's latest efforts to fight what some in Washington have
described as an "existential threat" to the country caused by the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

International donors have pledged $224m for the relief and rehabilitation of those
displaced in North West Frontier Province, $110m from the US.

Pakistan has immediately allocated $25m to the NWFP government for relief efforts,
but critics warn that is not enough to provide adequate reconstruction and law enfor-
cement. Ministers say the UN will launch an urgent appeal on Friday in a bid to raise
further money.

Correspondents say that as the conflict ploughs on, concerns are mounting about how
to cope with the huge number of displaced people, uprooted in what human rights
groups have described as Pakistan's largest movement of people since partition from
India in 1947.

A senior US military official based in Islamabad said the crisis could last until December
because the authorities expected large numbers of displaced people to remain in
temporary camps until the end of the year.

Explosive device

In the latest fighting, at least seven people have been killed in two separate incidents
in the district of Lower Dir, officials say. Four militants and three security personnel,
including an army officer, died.

The first incident took place in a mountainous part of the Shahi Koto area, when a security
force convoy was hit by an improvised explosive device on the main road. "Three people
were killed in the attack," a local official in Dir told the BBC. "Two more were injured and
one of them is in critical condition." The second incident involved clashes between militants
and security forces in the Qambar area.

The incidents took place two days after security forces claimed to have taken complete
control of Dir district. In Swat, the army says that about 15,000 members of the security
forces are fighting between 4,000 and 5,000 militants. It says more than 1,000 militants
and more than 50 soldiers have been killed.

There has been no independent confirmation of the casualties - communications with the
few remaining local people still in Swat have been seriously disrupted.

The army say that after clearing Taliban strongholds and supply depots in Swat's mountains,
soldiers are battling militants in towns where many thousands of civilians are believed to be
hiding. The army is also conducting a big offensive against Taliban militants in Buner.

Meanwhile US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she was "encouraged" by the army's
offensive. Appearing before a Congressional committee on Wednesday she said that the
Pakistani government was taking more positive action than previously and its action was
backed by opposition parties.

"If you look at the political support today, the statements that are being made by the prime
minister and others in support of the military's action against the Taliban - we've never seen
anything quite like this before. "That does not guarantee the outcome, but it certainly is, to
some extent, reassuring that the government and opposition are now united in their
recognition of the threat posed by extremism."

 

[Yrys]

UN in $543m Pakistan aid appeal, Friday, 22 May 2009 07:53 UK

Tens of thousands are housed
in camps south of the war zone

The UN has appealed for a total of $543m in humanitarian aid to help more than 1.6 million
people displaced by fighting in north-west Pakistan. The UN said the "extraordinary" exodus
had caused "incredible suffering". Tens of thousands of people are being housed in camps
south of the main fighting zone in the Swat valley.

Pakistan's army began an offensive on 2 May against the Taliban after a peace deal broke
down and militants began spreading their area of influence.

Separately, the top US military commander, Adm Michael Mullen, has warned that the US
troop build-up in Afghanistan could push Taliban fighters deeper into Pakistan, further
destabilising it.

'Comprehensive response'

The UN said the $543m (£342m) was needed to help fund about 165 projects it had drawn
up to help between 1.6 million and 1.7 million displaced people. Martin Mogwanja, acting
UN humanitarian coordinator, said: "The scale of this displacement is extraordinary in
terms of size and speed and has caused incredible suffering.

"We are calling for generous support from the international community."

The UN said it was working with authorities to "ensure we get relief to people as quickly as
possible".

On Thursday, Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani chaired a donor conference in
Islamabad and officials said the international community had so far responded with
pledges of $224m. It is not clear if that is included in the latest UN target figure.

Mr Gilani said: "There is an urgent need for a joint and comprehensive response to this
issue by all those who are committed to fighting terrorism. We need to do something
concrete and visible."

In Swat, the army says that about 15,000 members of the security forces are fighting
between 4,000 and 5,000 militants. It says more than 1,000 militants and more than
50 soldiers have been killed. It remains difficult to confirm reports from the war zone
but the Dawn newspaper says that troops are advancing on a key bridge near Mingora,
the main city of Swat.

In another area of North West Frontier Province on Thursday night, at least four people
were killed and 46 injured, including 25 security personnel, when an explosives laden
truck blew up in Jandola, near Tank in the south of the province.

Meanwhile Adm Mullen admitted to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in Washington
that successes against the Taliban in Afghanistan could push militants further into Pakistan.
"Can I... [be] 100% certain that won't destabilise Pakistan? I don't know the answer to that,"
he said. However, Adm Mullen said US and Pakistani forces were planning measures to
prevent this, without giving further details.

Adm Mullen's comments come as US President Barack Obama's administration prepares to
send thousands of extra troops to Afghanistan.

 

[Yrys]

'Bloody intersection' secured by Pakistani troops, May. 24 2009

The Associated Press

ISLAMABAD -- The Taliban left so many mutilated bodies at the crossing -- some hanging from trees with
threatening notes -- that Pakistanis in the Swat Valley's main town took to calling it "bloody intersection."

On Sunday, the army said that spot and seven other major crossings in Mingora were secured, part of
street-by-street urban fighting whose success is considered critical to flushing out the militants from
the valley as a whole. The advances in Swat came as helicopter gunships pounded alleged militant
hide-outs in a nearby tribal region, killing at least 18 people, while police announced the arrest of a
militant commander and six other Taliban fighters elsewhere in the northwest.

The events underscored how widespread and entrenched militant activity is along Pakistan's rugged
region bordering Afghanistan, and how pushing the Taliban out of Swat is unlikely to defuse the
overall insurgency beleaguering the nuclear-armed Muslim nation.

The U.S. has pushed Pakistan to use force to root out the al Qaeda and Taliban insurgents, who are
often involved in attacks on U.S. and NATO troops across the border. The operation in Swat has
strong support from Washington, and retaking Mingora, the valley's main commercial hub, could be
the stiffest test for the security forces.

A military statement Sunday said forces had encountered at least 12 roadside bombs while securing
the eight intersections. Five suspected militants were killed in various parts of Mingora while 14
others were arrested, the army said.

The retaking of Green Chowk could have serious symbolic value. Residents nicknamed it "khooni chowk"
or "bloody intersection" because the militants would leave their victims' bodies there -- some decapitated,
some killed in other brutal fashions. The dead often were left hanging from trees. Some had notes
attached that accused the victims of spying and told local residents not to move the bodies until specified
times. It was just one fear tactic used by Taliban fighters to exert control over the population of Mingora,
which when not under army siege normally has at least 375,000 residents.

Some 10,000 to 20,000 residents are still stranded in the town, according to the army.

One trapped civilian told The Associated Press via phone Saturday night that gunshots were ringing through
the air, first continuously then at intervals. He said he had tried to flee the city twice but failed due to the
fighting and lack of transportation. "I will try to leave again whenever I get another chance," said Fazal
Wadood, a local leader of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-N party. "It is like inviting death to stay
here anymore."

Overall in the valley, 10 militants were killed in the past 24 hours while three security troops died, the
army statement said. It added that troops had entered Piochar village, a hub in a remote part of Swat
that is the rear base for Swat Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah. A huge cache of arms and a bomb-making
factory were unearthed, the statement said. Officials have downplayed reports that the army would soon
expand the offensive to the lawless, semiautonomous tribal regions bordering Afghanistan. However,
violence has continued to flare in those areas.

On Sunday morning in the Orakzai tribal region, helicopter gunships pounded suspected militant targets
in multiple locations, including a religious school, local government official Mohammad Yasin said. At 
least six civilians were among the 18 dead, he said, adding the targeted spots were strongholds of
Hakeemullah Mehsud, a deputy to Pakistani Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud. Hundreds fled the area
amid the fighting, he said.

Also Sunday, police in nearby Charsadda district said they caught seven Taliban militants during a raid
on a religious school. They included Qari Ihsanullah, a Taliban commander suspected in attacks in Pakistan
and Afghanistan, Charsadda police Chief Riaz Khan said. "We recovered three suicide jackets, explosives
and assault rifles," he said of the Saturday night raid.

The military says about 1,100 suspected insurgents have died so far in the monthlong offensive in Swat
and neighboring districts. It has not given any tally of civilian deaths, and it's unclear how it is separating
noncombatants killed from militants. Residents fleeing the region have reported dozens of ordinary
Pakistanis killed in the fight. Some 1,500 to 2,000 hard-core insurgent fighters remain in Swat, the army
says. Information provided by the military and civilians is nearly impossible to verify independently
because of limited access to the area.

The offensive has also triggered an exodus of nearly 1.9 million refugees, more than 160,000 to relief
camps. Some fear the generally broad public support for the military campaign could drain away if the
refugees' plight worsens or if the army gets bogged down too long.


Pakistan Says It Makes More Gains on Taliban

A boy, displaced by fighting, stood in a relief camp in the town of Swabi in Pakistan
on Sunday.

 

[CougarKing]

So is the end of this campaign within sight?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090530/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan

Military retakes largest town in Swat Valley

By ROHAN SULLIVAN, Associated Press Writer Rohan Sullivan, Associated Press Writer – 1 min ago
ISLAMABAD – Pakistani troops have retaken the largest town in the Swat Valley from the Taliban as the army presses its offensive against militants in the country's northwest, the army spokesman said Saturday.

Government forces had full control of Mingora, though they were still meeting pockets of resistance from fighters on the outskirts of the town, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said.

Abbas said many militants had fled the town instead of confronting troops in a final battle, despite the military saying earlier that escape routes had been closed.

"They had prepared Mingora city ... with bunkers, but when they realized that they were being encircled and the noose was tightening they decided not to give a pitched battle," Abbas said.

The military launched a major offensive one month ago in the Swat Valley and neighboring areas to oust Taliban militants who were extending their control over the northwestern region, near the border with Afghanistan.

The campaign is strongly backed by Washington and the government's other Western allies, who see it as a test of the government's resolve to fight extremism in the Pakistan.

Government troops had been advancing steadily into the Swat region, bombarding towns from the air and fighting house-to-house with Taliban gunmen.

The fighting has caused more than 2 million people to flee the region, raising fears of a humanitarian crisis. More than 160,000 people are taking refuge in sweltering refugee camps south of the battle zone, while the rest are staying with relatives or relying on goodwill from local residents.

Widespread domestic support for the campaign could sour if the government is perceived to have failed the refugees or if a high number of civilian casualties is revealed.

The Taliban has warned it will launch terrorist strikes in Pakistani cities in retaliation for the campaign, and claimed responsibility for a gun and suicide bomb attack on Wednesday in the eastern city of Lahore that killed at least 30 people. A day later, three suicide bombings killed at least 14 people in two cities in the northwest.

Abbas said on Saturday that 1,217 militants have been killed in the Swat offensive and 79 arrested; 81 soldiers have died. The military has not released civilian casualties and has said all care has been taken to minimize them.

The figures could be independently verified. The tally and the extent of destruction caused by the fighting is largely unknown because media have been restricted from traveling in the region.

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on Saturday defended the decision to launch the offensive, saying it was necessary because the Taliban had challenged the authority of the government by advancing from its stronghold of Swat to the neighboring district of Buner, just 60 (100 kilometers) from the capital, Islamabad.

"The very existence of Pakistan was at stake, we had to start the operation," Gilani told a group of workers at state-owned Pakistan Television.

He promised cash payments to people forced from their homes and a massive reconstruction effort.

____

Associated Press Writers Asif Shahzad and Munir Ahmad in Islamabad contributed to this report.

 

[Yrys]

Pakistan student convoy 'missing', Monday, 1 June 2009 18:31 UK

Police in north-western Pakistan say several hundred students are missing in a tribal area near the
Afghan border. Unconfirmed reports from the Taliban stronghold of North Waziristan say the students,
teachers and relatives may have been kidnapped by militants.

Further north, troops are tightening their hold on Mingora, the main town in the Swat valley, after
retaking it from the Taliban at the weekend. In the town of Kohat, a blast at a bus terminal killed àat least two people.

Attack fears

Reports say a convoy of about 30 minibuses carrying the students left Razmak Cadet College in North
Waziristan bound for the town of Bannu. Only two minibuses turned up, police say.

"Two vehicles carrying some 25 students reached Bannu, we are investigating about other students,"
local police chief Iqbal Marwat told the AFP news agency. According to witnesses who escaped the
convoy was stopped by a group of heavily armed men. Police officials quote these witnesses as saying
a large number of people have been kidnapped, although there are conflicting reports about how many.

There has been a rise in violent incidents in recent days in the tribal areas next to the Afghan border.

The BBC's Chris Morris in Islamabad says officials believe militants are trying to divert attention away
from a major military offensive in the Swat valley.

Fears of attacks by militants have increased after a military offensive against the Taliban in parts of the
north-west. The militants said they had carried out a massive bombing in the city of Lahore last week
and have threatened more attacks. Pakistani troops are still fighting against Taliban militants in the
Swat valley, pushing northwards from Mingora, which is now under full government control.

The authorities say more than 1,200 militants and about 90 soldiers have been killed since their
offensive began in a neighbouring district nearly six weeks ago. There has been no official word
about civilian casualties, and no independent confirmation of the military's claims.

An estimated 2.5 million people have fled from the fighting, but tens of thousands who were trapped
in their homes are in even greater need of assistance.

'Retaliation'

The blast which killed two in Kohat, an important garrison town in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP),
injured at least eight others, officials say. Police say a bomb went off in a crowded bus terminal on
Monday afternoon. Kohat police chief Mohammad Idrees said the attack could be retaliation for police
operations against the militants, the Associated Press reported.

Taliban militants were driven out of Mingora, Swat's main town, on Saturday by Pakistani government
troops. Officials said operations in the whole Swat valley region should end in the next few days,
although military chiefs are more cautious

 

[MarkOttawa]

Good Pak infowar:

Pakistan Fighting Militants on 2 Fronts
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/world/asia/02pstan.html?hp

It was several weeks into a military campaign to flush out militants from a valley north of Pakistan’s capital, and the words of a Taliban commander, Maulana Fazlullah, crackled over a handheld radio.

“How are you? Is everything alright?” said Mr. Fazlullah, the main commander in the Swat Valley, according to a transcript of a radio intercept recorded by the Pakistani military.

There was no response.

“Don’t lose morale,” he said. “Go into the trees and take the sniper rifles with you. Take aim and fire. You should be able to kill at least one or two.”

The exchange was part of a series of conversations among Taliban militants in Swat that the Pakistani military recorded since the beginning of its offensive there last month. The discussions were transcribed, translated into Urdu, Pakistan’s official language, and compiled in a log book by intelligence officials here, and senior Pakistani military officials allowed The New York Times to read it.

The snippets, audible when the military happened to find the constantly changing frequency on which the militants were speaking, offer brief glimpses into the lives of the militants during the past weeks of war that vanish as fast as they appear.

The military argues the conversations are proof that the militants have suffered a serious setback in Swat, a scenic valley just north of here that had become a Taliban stronghold. But the military campaign is not over, and the top leadership, including Mr. Fazlullah, is still at large.

The Taliban is striking back in other areas. The Taliban kidnapped students, teachers and a principal riding in four cars from Razmak Cadet College on Monday in Waziristan, a Taliban stronghold in western Pakistan. The government has said Waziristan would be the next front in its campaign against the Taliban.

The Swat campaign, which began on May 8, is seen as a test case for Pakistan’s resolve to tackle its spreading insurgency, which came within 70 miles from its capital, Islamabad, earlier this year. Two earlier offensives failed, criticized as half-hearted efforts that inflicted too many civilian casualties.

But this time is different, military officials argue, as the army has committed more than double the number of troops, and has broad public support, opening a potential opportunity for the government to re-establish its authority in the area.

Whatever the outcome, the militant chatter in recent weeks sounded gloomy. There were some inspirational words, some jihad battle rallying cries, but also many lost, hungry and isolated voices. One resident of the village of Khazara said Taliban leaders gathered locals in the Minara Mosque shortly before he and his family fled, demanding contributions of a gun, a son, or 50,000 rupees in cash, but few obliged.

On May 27, a militant who called himself Abu Daud, asked urgently: “Where are the five boys we trained? Where are they? Bring them here because we need them.”

The response was not encouraging: “One has been killed and two are alive. I don’t know about the others.”..

The area of fighting has been off limits to journalists and it is not clear how much of a fight militants put up. Guerrillas often melt away when faced with superior firepower, only to resurface later. About eight brigades — approximately 16,000 troops — were committed to the offensive, more than double past campaigns.

A Swat resident who fled, Adnan Rashid, said in the later stages of the fighting, militants would shoot very short bursts from their guns, in order not to waste bullets.

The military says over 1,000 militants have been killed, but that is only an estimate. Most were pulled off the battlefield and buried by comrades before being counted, and some were probably civilians. There has been no casualty count of civilians.

The civilians seemed to irritate the militants.

A man who called himself Jawad fumed on May 27 that villagers were raising white flags on their houses. “Why are these gutless people holding white flags?” he said.

Another man responded: “Everyone has their own will. How can we stop them?”..

Pakistan Makes Gains in Key Swat Valley Town [video]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Br0wtzXPL0

Residents of the Swat Valley's main town of Mingora on Sunday assessed the damage, a day after the Pakistani military claimed to have retaken the city from...

Pakistan to attack the fountainhead of extremism: Rugged Waziristan
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/world/AP/story/1075752.html

Waziristan, the remote area that's the epicenter of Taliban and al-Qaida militants in Pakistan, is set to become the next war zone in the nation's fight against Islamic extremists, where clashes between insurgents and the army erupted over the weekend.

So far, there are just skirmishes in Waziristan but the key U.S. ally plans a full-scale military offensive there this summer, according to Pakistani and Western officials, a fight that is certain to be deadlier than the current operation in Swat valley and with profound international repercussions.

Western leaders have repeatedly said that international terrorist plots are being hatched in Waziristan, while the area provides a sanctuary for Afghan insurgents and al-Qaida leaders, possibly including Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.

South Waziristan, a part of the wild tribal territory that lies along the Afghan border, houses Pakistan's public enemy No. 1, warlord Baitullah Mehsud, who has thousands of armed followers around him. The insurgency across the country is fueled by fighters and suicide bombers sent by Mehsud. North Waziristan is also under the control of a Taliban warlord.

Pakistani forces are making rapid progress through Swat valley, in the North West Frontier Province, and they've previously claimed to have cleared two other areas that were under Taliban domination, Bajaur and Mohmand, which are part of the tribal territory.

But the specter of Waziristan, the fountainhead of extremism, now looms...

Al-Qaeda Seen as Shaken in Pakistan
U.S. Officials Cite Drones, Offensive
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/31/AR2009053102172.html

Drone-launched U.S. missile attacks and Pakistan's ongoing military offensive in and around the Swat Valley have unsettled al-Qaeda and undermined its relative invulnerability in Pakistani mountain sanctuaries, U.S. military and intelligence officials say.

The dual disruption offers potential new opportunities to ferret out and target the extremists, and it has sparked a new sense of possibility amid a generally pessimistic outlook for the conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Although al-Qaeda remains "a serious, potent threat," a U.S. counterterrorism official said, "they've suffered some serious losses and seem to be feeling a heightened sense of anxiety -- and that's not a bad thing at all."

The offensive in Swat against its Taliban allies also poses a dilemma for al-Qaeda, a senior military official said. "They're asking themselves, 'Are we going to contest' " Taliban losses, he said, predicting that al-Qaeda will "have to make a move" and undertake more open communication on cellphones and computers, even if only to gather information on the situation in the region. "Then they become more visible," he said.

It remains unclear whether U.S. intelligence and Pakistani ground forces can capitalize on such opportunities before they vanish. Chances to intercept substantive al-Qaeda communications or to take advantage of the movement of individuals are always fleeting, according to several officials of both governments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss counterinsurgency operations and the bilateral relationship.

Since last fall, the Predator drone attacks have eliminated about half of 20 U.S.-designated "high-value" al-Qaeda and other extremist targets along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, U.S. and Pakistani officials said. But the attacks have also killed civilians, stoking anti-American attitudes in Pakistan that inhibit cooperation between Islamabad and Washington...

Mark
Ottawa