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Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
- Start date
The time to make that bet was last week. I knew these guys are incompetent and will step on their own dicks. Iranians are now talking about oil raining in some areas thanks to oil infrastructure being hit. This was my position on Friday. And it was straight up a bet they would f' up something.
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The same, but I moved most holdings to cash before Christmas and I’m patiently waiting for a Black Swan event or a few baby Black Swan events to start buying back in.
Futures looking like the first days of COVID. Good times. I paid off my wife's student loans. Had an Italian navy buddy I called on the weekend to check in on. Told me how bad the situation was. Was told to stay home and not return to his ship. Scared the crap out of me. Sold a bunch of stuff on Monday morning and bet against airlines and hotels.
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Wife and I are supposed to go on a med cruise in late May....we'll see how that goes I guess....
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I’m off to France, Montpellier, on Friday, as of now I’ve got no concern at all.
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Doesn't look like Iran will get any reinforcements from Canada.
CBSA has removed only one senior Iranian official from Canada under federal ban
CBSA has removed only one senior Iranian official from Canada under federal ban
I mean, I'm sure I'm not the only person who is asking "what is the long term plan here?"
If the objectives are solely to eliminate Iran's military capabilities? Is it to cause regime change?
I mean, what is the Commanders Intent here?
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Israel dropping air to air missiles on its F16s to load up on more strike missiles.
Rampage apparently carries a 150 kg warhead out to a range of 150 to 250 km
armyrecognition.com
I guess there aren't that many suitable air targets to shoot at.
New Delhi and Ian Bremmer wouldn't be my usual high value source but I can't see what the opposition would gain out of having people underestimate their residual capability.
....
And Israel is pulling out the marketing stops
Blue Sparrow - air launched ballistic missile launched from an F15 - 2000 km range.
Rampage apparently carries a 150 kg warhead out to a range of 150 to 250 km
Israel Reveals F-16I Jet Carrying Four RAMPAGE Missiles in New Long-Range Deep-Strike Configuration
Image reveals Israeli F-16I Sufa carrying four RAMPAGE missiles, highlighting a deep-strike configuration tied to ongoing operations against Iran.
armyrecognition.com
I guess there aren't that many suitable air targets to shoot at.
New Delhi and Ian Bremmer wouldn't be my usual high value source but I can't see what the opposition would gain out of having people underestimate their residual capability.
....
And Israel is pulling out the marketing stops
Blue Sparrow - air launched ballistic missile launched from an F15 - 2000 km range.
Somebody should ask Bibi.
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110 by the end of March seems optimistic right now
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You can clearly see the Oil Embargo and GW1 on there.
The longer this goes, the longer supply chain recovery will take. And, so far, actual Iranian targeting of oil infrastructure and shipping has in the grand scheme of things been relatively modest. Most of the pricing and disruption right now is based on fear and insurability, not so much on actual physical destruction (though there has been some). They can probably do much more real harm than they have so far. Unmanned attack boats into the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman are probably both significant risks. Drone attacks onto oil loading facilities and storage on the gulf coast are attacks that have happened but that could happen much more. All that to say- the Strait of Hormuz has not really been physically interdicted much yet; mostly it's an insurance problem. Iran can play harder hardball than they have thus far.
Ironically- I've got a group presentation for class tomorrow night; my group is presenting on a paper written in 2023 about the implications of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on Israeli maritime trade. I'm covering the potential implications for Canada; not so much direct, but more of a harbinger. Timely assignment...
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im pretty sure ill be seeing new pricing update emails this week. It doesnt really matter why the oil doesnt ship, just that its not shipping. $120 a barrel is not sustainable economically either. Fun times! Question is will this alter the actions of the Trump administration or will it press on? It must have game planned this as it is not exactly a novel outcome?
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Let me tell you if Trump and that twit Netanyahu close out the air war and do not now bring an end to that regime, the absolute slaughter that will befall those poor people will be biblical in scale.
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Roughly 95% of the total workforce in Qatar is migrant workers, over 2.2 million workers. Of that number over 700,000 come from India alone.
Qatar has already moved to shut down aluminum production and a number of days ago said that they were a week away from shutting down their oil/gas production.
These migrant workers don’t get paid when they don’t work. Which means they aren’t able to feed themselves or able to send money home to feed their families back home.
Gotta wonder what their ‘expiration’ number is on how many days they can go without being paid before all hell breaks loose in Qatar.
Apply those numbers, in varies degrees of larger or smaller scale, across Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dabi, Oman…..
The end date for Donald to wrap this up is closer than you think.
Are you contending that the air war is actually likely to bring an end to that regime? I'm skeptical. Killing individuals, sure, but that happens all the time in war without systems wholesale collapsing.
And honestly, no, I don't think it would be 'biblical in scale'. the Iranian people took a shitkicking back in January. It was awful. But you're engaging in some hyperbole here. Not to be 'that guy', but five figure deaths is unfortunately not super remarkable on the level of global conflict. That's like a month or two in Ukriane. The Iranian regime will no doubt continue to be absolutely heinous, but let's not pretend it's something it's not; this isn't the end times. As totalitarian regimes go they're fairly par for the course. I'm not excusing anything they've done or saying anything about the situation the Iranian people face is OK, but we need to be super friggin' pragmatic about reality on the ground, and what the U.S. and Israel both can accomplish, and what they can't. We don't know for sure what either is now, but we have to be rational and we have to continuously reassess. This war could absolutely continue to make things worse still. U.S. and Israel need to be clear about what their objectives are (do they each have the same objectives?) and if they in fact are achievable.
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AI on oil exports from Iran
Iran's oil exports in January 2026 were estimated at approximately 1.51 million barrels per day (BPD), according to UANI. Other reports indicated a sharper decline to below 1.39 million BPD due to rising geopolitical tensions, which represented a 26% year-over-year drop, notes Roic AI.
United Against Nuclear Iran | UANI +2
Key details on January 2026 exports:
- Total Volume: 46.9 million barrels for the month.
- Value: Approximately
billion. - Volume Trend: Exports dipped about 3% compared to December 2025.
- Production: Crude oil production was reported at 3,129,000 BPD, according to CEIC Data and Trading Economics.
- Petroleum Products: Exports of petroleum products (e.g., fuel oil) were approximately 350,000 BPD, down from 410,000 BPD a year earlier, notes
Based on preliminary data, Canada exported approximately 129 million barrels (bbl) of crude oil in January 2026.
Mansfield Energy
This volume indicates a rise compared to the 125.5 million barrels exported in January a year earlier, driven by increased pipeline capacity, specifically the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion.
Mansfield Energy
Key Data Points for January 2026:
- Total Crude Exports: ~129 million barrels, which represented a slight dip from December 2025 levels but was higher year-over-year.
- Export Drivers: The expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) continues to increase capacity for moving Western Canadian oil to the Pacific Coast.
- Market Context: Despite high volumes, exports in early 2026 faced potential headwinds from a 10% tariff on Canadian oil imports imposed by the United States.
- Production Context: Canadian oil production in January 2026 saw a 9.4% increase compared to January 2024, despite a slight decline from December 2025's record-high levels
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I know what you’re saying, but the new guy- if left in place - will have to cement his position. A lot of people in that country have felt quite emboldened to accept the bombing as the price to be paid for a change in government. Trump has opened that can of worms for his own ends- it’s pretty obvious he could care less if the regime falls. It’s not apparent that the Iranian people know that. If there is no change the repression and reprisals will almost necessarily be enormous in order to stay in power and deter any future thoughts of a state not governed by the IRGC.
Edit: and I don’t think this is comparable to Ukraine. The Ukrainians have been able to fight back and make the Russian pay. The ordinary population in Iran have no army, no real organization and no multinational parties that will step in and defend them. A Pol Pot style internal cleansing is not out of the question.
