Iran Super Thread- Merged

[The Bread Guy]

Canada may get pulled into military strikes against Iran if it comes to a showdown between western powers and the rogue state.

And things could get messy considering a new report from the United Nation's nuclear watchdog that's expected to indicate Tehran is on the brink of being able to develop a nuclear warheads, said Houchang Hassan-Yari, an expert in military and strategic issues at the Royal Military College of Canada.

“If it gets to a military campaign, I think Canada will participate with the Americans and their allies,” the international relations professor said. “If sanctions are the next avenue, Canada will participate in that.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency is slated to release its report later this week outlining more evidence Iran's nuclear program is for weapons, not energy, development. Iran denies the allegations.

The report will be released amid speculation Israel, France, the U.S. and the U.K. are prepared to target Iran nuclear sites ....

QMI/Sun Media, 7 Nov 11

The latest on Iran here:
http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/25516.0.html

 

[cooldiddums]

I have my doubts this will come to fruition, but anything is possible.  While it is common knowledge that Iran has nuclear ambitions,
this latest wind of the "Iranian threat" is being overblown by Israel (obviously), who are merely trying to stiffen UN sanctions in shorter order. 

It would be foolhardy of Israel, let alone the US or any NATO member, to be meddling in any more Middle-Eastern affairs. 
Even Israel's own defence minister has admitted what an egregious (and likely impractical anyways) action it would be to strike.  (Most of
Iran's nuclear plants are all but impervious to missile or bomb strikes as they're so deep underground.)

Nonetheless, Israel has and will continue to stir the pot, if by attempting to use Obama's finger while doing so. 
Will be interesting to watch, but I don't see CF18s over Tehran anytime soon. 

Great post!

 

[aesop081]

Iran's nuclear plants are all but impervious to missile or bomb strikes as they're so deep underground.)

Nothing is impervious to bomb or missile strike anymore.

 

[medicineman]

If Israel really wanted those sites gone, I'm sure the Mossad and/or the IDF would find a way of doing it.

MM

 

[GK .Dundas]

And after a careful evaluation of our long range strike capabilities .We have been tasked with bringing the Coffee and doughnuts. :

 

[aesop081]

And after a careful evaluation of our long range strike capabilities .We have been tasked with bringing the Coffee and doughnuts. :

Ask Ghadaffi about our long-range strike capability............just sayin'

 

[SupersonicMax]

GK .Dundas:  Short memory don't we have?  Remember 18 March 2011?  We projected our fighter force abroad and struck targets 4000+ NM away from home.  All that in a matter of hours really.  Long range enough for you?

 

[aesop081]

GK .Dundas:  Short memory don't we have?  Remember 18 March 2011?  We projected our fighter force abroad and struck targets 4000+ NM away from home.  All that in a matter of hours really.  Long range enough for you?

Exactly.

 

[Journeyman]

...this latest wind of the "Iranian threat" is being overblown by Israel (obviously), who are merely trying to stiffen UN sanctions in shorter order.

Yes, because the UN has a lengthy track-record of doing all things pro-Israeli.

Or are you saying that Professor Hassan-Yari is an Israeli agent provocateur?

Either way....  :



ps - adding "obviously" to a statement doesn't add intellectual credence.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here is an interesting but, in my opinion, ultimately unpersuasive analysis of why Israel ought not to strike Iran, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the National Post:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/Israeli+attack+Iran+would+madness/5672007/story.html

An Israeli attack on Iran would be madness

By Andrew Cohen, The Ottawa Citizen

November 8, 2011

Sometime this week, the International Atomic Energy Agency will issue a scary report on Iran's nuclear program. It will confirm that Iran is close to developing an A-bomb.

According to The Washington Post, the IAEA finds "that Iran's government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon," and it has conducted "an apparent secret research program that was more ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected."

This isn't news in Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defence Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman are now said to favour attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. Even President Shimon Peres, a dove, is musing publicly about the failure of diplomacy.

It may be that this sabre-rattling is intended to spur support for tougher sanctions on Iran. But a military solution isn't just risky for Israel.

An attack on Iran would be catastrophic, setting off a disastrous train of events. It's madness.

Doubting the military option isn't about a squishy, woolly-minded morality over the right of Israel to deny Iran the nuclear arms that Israel already has. Iran is a religious autocracy whose delusional president denies the Holocaust and wants to kill the Jews.

As Israeli journalist Hirsh Goodman writes in his fine new book, The Anatomy of Israel's Survival (Mc-Clelland & Stewart), "Iran is maniacally dedicated to Israel's destruction, and says so on every occasion, in every language -" He calls Iran the greatest existential threat to the Jewish people - half of whom live in Israel - since Hitler.

Rather than moral, our reservations here are practical. Fundamentally, there just are too many ways a military response could go wrong.

Let us assume that the Israelis know that Iran has the bomb and the means to deliver it. Let us assume that they know where Iran's installations are.

Even so, the chances of success are low. That Israel could eliminate Iran's nuclear ability in a clean, surgical air strike, or even a series of strikes, is implausible.

Iran is big. Its nuclear facilities are dispersed. They aren't clustered on a plain, wrapped in a box tied with a red ribbon.

The Iranians know how the Israelis destroyed the nuclear installations of the Iraqis in 1981 and the Syrians in 2007, both with impunity. Iran is said to have parallel programs.

Indeed, the Iranians may have several programs. Their nuclear capacity, like cancer, is thought to have metastasized, making it virtually impossible to root out.

Hitting a country as far from Israel as Iran, which would require mid-air refuelling, is hard enough. Hitting it without being detected by hostile states such as Syria, perhaps over a series of days, would be astonishing.

Some of the installations are said to be in bunkers beyond the reach of conventional bombs, raising the ominous prospect of using tactical nuclear weapons.

But let's assume, again, that this operation could succeed. Then what?

The Iranians would have to retaliate. They could be expected to use whatever is left of their nuclear (or even biological weapons), which could well be the end of Israel, what Moshe Dayan called "the destruction of the Third Temple."

Israel is tiny; Iran is 75 times its size. Seventy per cent of Israelis - with their ports, airports, factories - live in cities hugging the coastal plain 259 kilometres long and 16 kilometres deep. Even with Israel's crack air defences, it wouldn't take many warheads to bring havoc upon the Jewish state.

Perhaps Iran wouldn't use nuclear weapons, given the risks of annihilation from Israel and the United States. Perhaps, as well, it would worry that a nuclear attack on Israel could kill its Arab neighbours, poison their air and water, and destroy their holy sites.

Instead, Iran could decide to launch conventional missiles. It could try to close the Straits of Hormuz, cutting off oil supplies to the West, or send suicide-bombers around the world. Or it could inflame the Palestinians in Gaza, who need little excuse to send rockets into Israel, and embolden Hezbollah in Lebanon to use some of the 45,000 rockets that Hirsh Goodman says it has stockpiled.

And then there is the prospect of a hostile post-Mubarak Egypt and a simmering Syria joining an alliance against Israel. Suddenly, Israel would be at war on many fronts.

At a minimum, Israel after an attack on Iran would find itself even more diplomatically isolated than it is now - however pleased that Turkey and Saudi Arabia would be to see Iran defanged.

In the end, though, an attack is too dangerous. There are too many unknowns. Better for Israel to rely on its sophisticated cyber warfare or its selective assassinations of Iranian scientists and other means of covert warfare.

Ultimately, deterrence is the only way to contain a nuclear Iran. The threat of mutually assured destruction kept the Cold War cold for a generation, until a wiser leadership emerged. We have to hope the same happens in Iran.

Andrew Cohen is a professor of journalism and international affairs at Carleton University.

Email: andrewzcohen@yahoo.ca

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen

My argument with Cohen is strategic. He concludes that: "Ultimately, deterrence is the only way to contain a nuclear Iran. The threat of mutually assured destruction kept the Cold War cold for a generation, until a wiser leadership emerged. We have to hope the same happens in Iran." It is not clear to me that MAD is on the table, nor will it ever be. Israel is unlikely to ever have the capability to destroy Iran but left alone Iran will, soon, have the capability to destroy Israel. Israel has 200-400 nuclear devices, only a few are strategic is size or range. Iran, as Cohen mentions, is too big to be "deterred" by Israel's nuclear arsenal. Iran, under its current leadership:

1. Is committed to destroying Israel and driving the Jews out of the Middle East. It wants to purify the Islamic ummah; and

2. Doesn't much care if it "poisons" its Arab neighbours. Many (most?) Shia Muslims hate Sunni Muslims as much as they hate Jews.

When, as opposed to if, Iran has enough nukes it will attack Israel in the hopes that it will achieve its goal before American power can be brought to bear.

On that basis, in my opinion it would be "madness" for Israel to not attack Iran.

I know, I know, President Obama would be annoyed ... he might even stand in the corner and sulk.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I have my doubts this will come to fruition, but anything is possible.  While it is common knowledge that Iran has nuclear ambitions, this latest wind of the "Iranian threat" is being overblown by Israel (obviously), who are merely trying to stiffen UN sanctions in shorter order. 

We shall see. The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to release its latest report on Iranian nuclear ambitions, inlcuding possible nuclear weapons research. Report is expected either today or tomorrow.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The UN atomic watchdog on Tuesday gave its clearest indication yet that Iran may be developing nuclear weapons, publishing a massive body of intelligence (PDF) already dismissed by Tehran as fabricated.

In a keenly awaited report seen by AFP, the International Atomic Energy Agency said it had “serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme.”

It said it had its “credible” information from foreign intelligence reports and its own research that indicates that Iran “has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device.”

It added: “The information also indicates that prior to the end of 2003, these activities took place under a structured programme, and that some activities may still be ongoing.” ....

Agence France-Presse, 8 Nov 11

Iran has worked on developing an atomic bomb design and may still be conducting research relevant for such weapons, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said in its most detailed and hardest-hitting report on military dimensions to Tehran's nuclear program.

The International Atomic Energy Agency document, which has been preceded by Israeli media speculation of military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites, detailed new evidence suggesting efforts to acquire a nuclear arms capability.

"The agency has serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program," the IAEA said in the report, obtained by Reuters on Tuesday, which included a 13-page annex with key technical descriptions of research.

Citing "credible" information, the Vienna-based agency said the data "indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device."

It added: "The information also indicates that prior to the end of 2003, these activities took place under a structured program, and that some activities may still be ongoing." ....

Reuters, 8 Nov 11

Tehran media response....

Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic is in full preparedness to counter any military attack against it.

He made the remarks on the sidelines of a ceremony held on Tuesday on Kish Island, in the southern province of Bandar Abbas, in which domestically manufactured patrol vessels were delivered to the National Police.

Iran has repeatedly said that its missile, maritime, and submarine capabilities are highly advanced and modern, Vahidi said, adding, “We have the power to counter any threat.”

“The recent threats issued against Iran are mostly propaganda, and, in my view, have their roots in the West’s weakness before Iran,” he said.

He went on to say that the Iranian Navy, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Naval Force, and the National Police are closely monitoring the movements of extra-regional forces in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.

“Our country’s armed forces will give a firm, quick, and crushing response to any act of adventurism or hostile action against the territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”  ....

Tehran Times, 8 Nov 11

Some Israeli media

Iran has been working toward building a nuclear weapon since 2003, according to a report released by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Tuesday.

The report, which was handed over to the 35-member states of the IAEA Board of Governors, details a series of tests, acquisition of materials, and technology that suggests Iran has continuously worked to produce a nuclear weapon since 2003 ....

Ha'aretz, 8 Nov 11

 

[Robert0288]

Deterance only works with rational(-ish) actors leading countries, and being amongst their goals personal survival.

Neither one of those two points a religious nation especially one lead by Ahmadinejad are particularly strong in.  Way too much crazy irrational things have been done in the name of religion, and Ahmadinejad has said some fairly inflamatory things that also sounded pretty irrational. 

Hence you can't depend on cold war style MAD to deter anyone in that region.

 

[sean m]

Seems the Washington Times consider that war with Iran is inevitable,

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/4/the-coming-war-with-Iran/.

Hopefully the supreme leader is not foolish enough to think that this would end favorable for him and the regime.

 

[larry Strong]

Seems the Washington Times consider that war with Iran is inevitable,

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/4/the-coming-war-with-Iran/.

Hopefully the supreme leader is not foolish enough to think that this would end favorable for him and the regime.

Seems they changed their minds......

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/4/the-coming-war-with-Iran/.

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[Brasidas]

Cohen's points against Israel bombing the hell out of Iran's nuclear sites are:

Getting past other hostile nations' air defence repeatedly
Requirement for refueling
Tough bunkers
Dispersed facilities
Retaliatory missile strikes from Iran

And then a series of less concrete threats against Israel:
Iran attempting to close the Hormuz strait, blockading other nations' ports from exporting oil to the west
Sending out suicide bombers
Riling up the Palestinians

Out of the first five, what exactly is the conventional missile threat from Iran? How vulnerable is this capability to a first strike?

If Israel buys up sufficient aerial tankers and blows the hell out of any SAM sites that try to engage them en route, I'm not seeing a sufficient deterrent to keep Israel from paying the cost to paste Iran once Mossad draws up a list of probable targets.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Cohen's points against Israel bombing the hell out of Iran's nuclear sites are:

Getting past other hostile nations' air defence repeatedly
Requirement for refueling
Tough bunkers
Dispersed facilities
Retaliatory missile strikes from Iran

And then a series of less concrete threats against Israel:
Iran attempting to close the Hormuz strait, blockading other nations' ports from exporting oil to the west
Sending out suicide bombers
Riling up the Palestinians

Out of the first five, what exactly is the conventional missile threat from Iran? How vulnerable is this capability to a first strike?

If Israel buys up sufficient aerial tankers and blows the hell out of any SAM sites that try to engage them en route, I'm not seeing a sufficient deterrent to keep Israel from paying the cost to paste Iran once Mossad draws up a list of probable targets.

That's the key question, in my view.

Israel needs to neutralize Iran's capability to hit ti with a strategic strike. What part of the mechanism it targets is a technical issue.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Shared with the usual caveats.  yellow comment mine.  The Revolutionary Guard have suffered a workplace accident...tsk tsk tsk

Iran ammunition depot blast kills 15
The Associated Press
An accidental explosion at a Revolutionary Guard ammunition depot west of Tehran killed at least 15 people on Saturday, officials said.  The explosions occurred when military personnel were transporting munitions at a base, said Guard spokesman Ramazan Sharif. The base is located outside Bidganeh village, 40 kilometers southwest of the capital.
The Guard is Iran's most powerful military force. (but apparently not the sharpest crayons in the box)  "My colleagues at the Guard were transporting ammunition at one of the depots at the site when an explosion occurred as a result of an accident," Sharif said.  At least 15 people were killed, state TV reported. The semi-official ISNA news agency said 10 people were injured and hospitalized.  Sharif said some of those injured were in critical condition.
© The Associated Press, 2011
The Canadian Press

 

[tomahawk6]

One of those killed was the head of Iran's missile program,a BG.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Well that was friggin stupid of him.  Darwin award nominations for some I'm sure.  Seeing as this guy was the head of their missile program, I can just see the run on the tin foil at the supermarkets from all the "Israel did it" conspiracy nuts that will be coming out of the woodwork now.  All those hats need to be covered.  :Tin-Foil-Hat: