Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Colin Parkinson]

Because it's a good idea to recreate the oppressive rule of one of the most oppressive dictators in history, installed by a CIA engineered process?

Pre-1979 is not a great model for post-2026 Iran ...

It was better than what they have now and likley the Shah will oversee some sort of transitionary government. There is a democratic structure inplace, except the Clerics get to pick the people you get to vote for. Once you remove that bit, I suspect you get a Monarchy democracy with the Shah holding the wheel till a new freely elected government gets in and the Shah reverts roughly to the similar role of the King in the UK.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Because it's a good idea to recreate the oppressive rule of one of the most oppressive dictators in history, installed by a CIA engineered process?

Pre-1979 is not a great model for post-2026 Iran ...

One step at a time.

Most revolutions seem to end in terror. I surmise the underlying common cause of failure is attempting too much, too fast, without enough forethought and deliberation as to what should replace status quo. Most revolutions are triggered abruptly by contemporary events.

Here are at least three possible models for a reasonable likelihood of success:

• aspiring government-to-be prepares in exile, awaiting an opportunity to return and take over
• aspiring government-to-be prepares in situ, waiting until it is ready to take over
• continuation of government in place, with substitution of one or more key decision makers

 

[OldSolduer]

Because it's a good idea to recreate the oppressive rule of one of the most oppressive dictators in history, installed by a CIA engineered process?

Pre-1979 is not a great model for post-2026 Iran ...

You are correct however lets see what the Iranians want.

 

[brihard]

Iranians have to decide this for themselves. I have zero faith that meddling by the west won’t just make things worse, because it’s likely to be misaligned with what the Iranians themselves would ultimately demonstrate a democratic will to do. Therefore any further western interference will just create more friction and stumbling blocks.

The collapse of Iran’s regime, whether it’s this month, this year, or in a decade, will be an absolute mess no matter what. The west cannot make it better but absolutely can make it worse.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Iranians have to decide this for themselves. I have zero faith that meddling by the west won’t just make things worse, because it’s likely to be misaligned with what the Iranians themselves would ultimately demonstrate a democratic will to do. Therefore any further western interference will just create more friction and stumbling blocks.

The collapse of Iran’s regime, whether it’s this month, this year, or in a decade, will be an absolute mess no matter what. The west cannot make it better but absolutely can make it worse.

Yes we did so badly in Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea

As I mentioned, Iran has a election system in place, it just needs to be opened to candidates that the people want. The bigger issue will be removing IRGC control of the economy as they are basically a mafia.

 

[brihard]

Yes we did so badly in Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea

As I mentioned, Iran has a election system in place, it just needs to be opened to candidates that the people want. The bigger issue will be removing IRGC control of the economy as they are basically a mafia.

Very different circumstances, and many years ago.

How did Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya work out?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Very different circumstances, and many years ago.

How did Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya work out?

Nevertheless, we don't give ourselves credit, ever. Malaysia is another example of a success.

 

[brihard]

Nevertheless, we don't give ourselves credit, ever. Malaysia is another example of a success.

Patting ourselves on the ass for things that happened a few generations ago doesn’t in any way mean we’re in a good spot to make this particular situation better at this particular time. Iranians need to settle their own form of government. Nobody else can.

 

[QV]

Patting ourselves on the ass for things that happened a few generations ago doesn’t in any way mean we’re in a good spot to make this particular situation better at this particular time. Iranians need to settle their own form of government. Nobody else can.

They sure do (with a little initial help )

 

[brihard]

They sure do (with a little initial help )

Oh, for sure if the regime looks poised to fall they’ll have some quiet help breaking it. I’m realistic about that. Maybe some non-quiet help.

The west should just avoid the hubris of thinking we can then fix it.

 

[QV]

Oh, for sure if the regime looks poised to fall they’ll have some quiet help breaking it. I’m realistic about that. Maybe some non-quiet help.

The west should just avoid the hubris of thinking we can then fix it.

I suspect this is the difference between Trump and past POTUS. Though there might be a JDAM or three, perhaps some SOF love, you won't see 15,000 troops on the ground for years and decades.

 

[brihard]

I suspect this is the difference between Trump and past POTUS. Though there might be a JDAM or three, perhaps some SOF love, you won't see 15,000 troops on the ground for years and decades.

IMO if the regime looks poised to fall, Israel will bomb the snot out of whatever regime assets and capabilities are being most relied upon to maintain control. They would act unilaterally as the Air Force of the revolution. I think the U.S. and Israel would also work in conjunction to get clandestine assets and SOF into certain key facilities linked to nuclear technology to mitigate proliferation concerns. Probably some scientists tragically die in the unrest too.

I’m overall pretty accepting of reasonable actions taken to keep the nuclear genie from getting further out of the bottle.

 

[Kirkhill]

I am pretty sure there is still an outcome if we do nothing.

I believe that course of action is defined as isolationism.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Patting ourselves on the ass for things that happened a few generations ago doesn’t in any way mean we’re in a good spot to make this particular situation better at this particular time. Iranians need to settle their own form of government. Nobody else can.

Well the people on the street are the ones calling for the Shah and the threat that Trump made has likley saved some lives, at least for the time being. So far we are handling it well. If the regime falls, Iran is going to need a lot of help, particularly in cleansing the higher ups of the IRGC and stabilizing the electrical grid and providing drinking water. Those are promises we can make now.

 

[OldSolduer]

Iranians have to decide this for themselves. I have zero faith that meddling by the west won’t just make things worse, because it’s likely to be misaligned with what the Iranians themselves would ultimately demonstrate a democratic will to do. Therefore any further western interference will just create more friction and stumbling blocks.

The collapse of Iran’s regime, whether it’s this month, this year, or in a decade, will be an absolute mess no matter what. The west cannot make it better but absolutely can make it worse.

The culture of Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan are totally different to ours. Our way of doing things is foreign to them. I read the other day that in the Somali culture bribery is a way of life - and we abhor it.

Look at the USSR - democracy didn't work out at all because they have never had democracy and neither has Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan.

SO when you oust a regime, you need a bureaucracy to run it and who do you go to? Whoever the bureaucrats were before the coup.

 

[brihard]

I am pretty sure there is still an outcome if we do nothing.

I believe that course of action is defined as isolationism.

Some would call it ‘“picking your battles”, and “knowing your limits”.

Well the people on the street are the ones calling for the Shah and the threat that Trump made has likley saved some lives, at least for the time being. So far we are handling it well. If the regime falls, Iran is going to need a lot of help, particularly in cleansing the higher ups of the IRGC and stabilizing the electrical grid and providing drinking water. Those are promises we can make now.

Some may genuinely want the return of a Shah. Others are voicing it simply as the most anti-regime thing you can say.

If the regime falls, there will be things Iran needs, yes. That will not include the west attempting to superimpose some template of what their next government should look like. If a popular movement deposes the autocratic regime, that same popular movement gets a crack at building something that can hold enough consensus with the population to make a go at governing.

 

[Kirkhill]

Some would call it ‘“picking your battles”, and “knowing your limits”.

Both things can be reasonable courses of action. But what are we to make of someone who never acts and yet complains when others do?

 

[brihard]

Both things can be reasonable courses of action. But what are we to make of someone who never acts and yet complains when others do?

I don’t know who this hypothetical person is that you’re speaking about. I don’t know what you’re trying to shift the discussion to. I’m talking about the potential for the Iranian regime to collapse, and my belief that the west should exercise restraint and not think there’s much if any room for us in ‘regime change’ there. I believe we would be more likely to make things worse than better.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Wishful thinking?

Pahlavi dismisses calls for US-led regime change in Iran, predicts 'Cyrus Accord' with Israel​

Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi does not believe that it is necessary for the US to extract Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and put him on trial for his crimes, downplaying chatter that the US military may conduct such an operation, similar to the extraction of Maduro from Caracas, Venezuela.

Pahlavi's comments came during an interview with the Wall Street Journal's Tunku Varadarajan via Zoom, published on Monday.

"I think that change in Iran is ultimately in the hands of the people of Iran themselves," he affirmed.

"Many governments have reasons to hold Khamenei accountable, but I think it will be far more appropriate for this to be solely in the hands of the Iranian people, and to have world governments be supportive" of their fight to free themselves, he added.

"I don't think it’s a matter of any kind of outside intervention, either a military or a special ops kind, because I think the regime is collapsing. The regime is at its weakest."

Reza Pahlavi downplays calls for US action on Iran | The Jerusalem Post

Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi said regime change will be driven by Iranians themselves, rejecting foreign military intervention and predicting closer ties with Israel after the Islamic Republic’s

www.jpost.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Some would call it ‘“picking your battles”, and “knowing your limits”.



Some may genuinely want the return of a Shah. Others are voicing it simply as the most anti-regime thing you can say.

If the regime falls, there will be things Iran needs, yes. That will not include the west attempting to superimpose some template of what their next government should look like. If a popular movement deposes the autocratic regime, that same popular movement gets a crack at building something that can hold enough consensus with the population to make a go at governing.

The Shah in exile outlines the general plan