Thinking further, and not sure if I’ve said this here yet- the U.S. won’t take actions to trigger regime change til they’re ready to. I strongly believe that would include them putting forces on the grounds to the extent necessary to secure any nuclear materials and exploit/destroy the technical sites. That will probably be a pretty significant endeavour. I don’t have a good finger on the pulse of what’s in theatre but there will probably be some obvious telegraphing. Getting that force in to various locations is one thing, and then sustaining it is another. And then there’s pulling out everything that needs to come out at the end. I won’t be surprised if we see lots of talk but not much action for a little while yet- or alternatively, action calibrated to send a message but not yet collapse the regime. A threshold nuclear state descended into anarchy is bad news bears.
If the US does take action, for the reasons you mention, unless it's a symbolic action (Perhaps a another long-range bombing mission on some select targets) it may be a serious departure from the limited high-precision type missions we've seen from the Trump administration so far.
As you say, this could be a significant endeavour. Much more significant than anything the Trump administration has overseen. This is way more than dropping some bunker busters on a mountain complex, blowing up some boats, or doing a raid.
I'm not sure
exactly how involved something like this could be, but if it involves significant groups going on the ground with sustainment, that could turn to be extremely risky politically, even if deemed necessary by experts for the safe disarmament of whatever nuclear capabilities Iran may have. I mean, who knows what kind of hornets nest some of these sites might be, or who might try to get involved once on the ground.
My impression has been that Trump likes fast limited scale missions he can present to the public as a quick win. He also likes "making a deal" which he seems to suggest
might be possible with Iran.
In many cases, the US military can absolutely deliver those quick wins in the right conditions.
What would happen under the current leadership in a much larger military operation, including the political impacts with his base, is sort of unchartered territory. Would they want to risk a major operation on relatively short notice with a real chance of things getting at least somewhat ugly?
I don't think I have any guesses on how this would go down
if it happens. I mean, we may never know as this protest could end with the regime still in place. Based on previous military action under Trump, perhaps a good guess would be a quick mission / somewhat limited action he can claim as a success to the American public almost immediately after it happens without too much regard for the long-term after effects, but is that sort of strategy going to be possible this time? Is this "too big" of a job for something like that if he does do something?
en.wikipedia.org
www.aljazeera.com
