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There was satellite imagery of them being still tied to the dock, I guess there was no volunteers for a suicide mission.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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Can anyone explain what’s going on here? This looks like one missile splitting off multiples that are not small cluster munitions.
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I'd hate to be in the crew of a conventionally-powered sub operating in shallow/confined waters, facing US ASW.
I've seen that video elsewhere attributed to something in 2024.
She's in good spirits given the day she's had. But I guess making it out of the plane and to the ground and being able to stand on both feet is worth a grin.
The regime change stretch goal looks like a failure. I think the Americans got duped by the diaspora and the Israelis.
And now it's a race to eliminate enough of Iran's TELs, stockpiles and manufacturing capabilities before the Gulf States drop out. Several are low on interceptors already.
It was a bad decision to not have enough AD when kicking off. And then not have enough firepower to achieve like complete destruction of most of Iran's critical capabilities in a week.
The regime only has to survive to be victorious. And they will seem untouchable if they survive.
The real question is what happens when the Americans declare victory in a few weeks and end Israelis want to keep going?
And now it's a race to eliminate enough of Iran's TELs, stockpiles and manufacturing capabilities before the Gulf States drop out. Several are low on interceptors already.
It was a bad decision to not have enough AD when kicking off. And then not have enough firepower to achieve like complete destruction of most of Iran's critical capabilities in a week.
The regime only has to survive to be victorious. And they will seem untouchable if they survive.
The real question is what happens when the Americans declare victory in a few weeks and end Israelis want to keep going?
HavokFour
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Possibly a drone.
www.reuters.com
US embassy in Riyadh hit by drones, Saudi defence ministry says
The U.S. embassy in Riyadh was hit by two drones resulting in a limited fire and some material damage, the kingdom's defence ministry said in a post on X on Tuesday, citing an initial assessment.
www.reuters.com
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Trump won’t take the loss on this. He’ll blame NATO and all the other “losers”.
He should hope some of the Gulf allies don't get problems. They are panicking and paying influencers to put out videos of how safe it is over there.
Go through the thread here:
They are terrified of the rich trashy Western tourist and expats drying up.
And if the Americans can't end the attacks on the GCC within days the coalition will fracture. And that's not even considering oil and the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s not super clear what the actual strategic objectives are or what an American victory looks like. If the regime doesn’t change, then neither will its general trajectory of armament. They’ll rebuild missile and drone stockpiles aggressively, incorporating lessons learned from which platforms are most cost effective. They’ll build back quickly to be no less a threat than that which purportedly justified this attack.
Do America and Israel have a sufficient munitions stockpile to actually defeat indefinitely Iran’s ability to develop and replenish ballistic missile stocks? Not sure.
How long will the gulf countries play ball? So far they’ve had to profligately expend interceptors. This can’t last long. Iran hasn’t even really gone gunning hard for energy infrastructure yet. Actual attacks on shipping have been relatively limited.
Mere survival of the regime (the system, not individual people) is victory for Iran in the long run. And they have a lot of screws they can turn to make their neighbours really hurt.
We’ll see a major shift in Gulf countries’ approach to integrated air defence after this, including much larger stockpiling of interceptors. But there also needs to be rapid growth of lighter cheaper options.
A lot of lessons that should have been learned from Ukraine were not, and apparently a lot of mistakes had to be repeated. Maybe this will overcome denialism of the threat. You go to war with the air defence you have, not the air defence you want.
And America has to keep a lot of dry powder for other conflicts.
HavokFour
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Details on what happened are coming out.
No warning, no siren: Six US service members killed in Iranian strike that hit makeshift operations center in Kuwait
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Awesome song!
They don't seem adequately defended for an op that was launched at their convenience.
PrairieFella
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It's way too early to be talking about thebsuccess or failure of regime change in Iran. The Israeli and American air forces are still very actively engaging targets, so the people of Iran are likely still laying low and trying to survive.
When the active part of the attacks ends, and the people have a chance to see how damaged the apparatus of the regime is, that will be the point at which we might see indications of success or failure. For reference, the Desert Storm air campaign lasted over a month before ground forces went in. This bombing campaign is just three days old.
Any predictions now are just internal projections based on emotion.
As for the Gulf States, again its too early to see any real impact. Influencers are going be influencers... they have more to fear than the oil barons running the region.
When the active part of the attacks ends, and the people have a chance to see how damaged the apparatus of the regime is, that will be the point at which we might see indications of success or failure. For reference, the Desert Storm air campaign lasted over a month before ground forces went in. This bombing campaign is just three days old.
Any predictions now are just internal projections based on emotion.
As for the Gulf States, again its too early to see any real impact. Influencers are going be influencers... they have more to fear than the oil barons running the region.
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Observation - it seems to me that when regimes fall, there is usually a small core of people protesting, acting, and leading. It starts small, and grows as that core build a center of mass.
There were 30-40K of that center of mass murdered by this regime last month....I think those were probably the most likely people to foment the desired regime change, and they are most certainly not going to be involved.
That leaves the question - who is stepping up next?
Wave 2 of the 'core' will be less certain, less dedicated, less willing to take action.
Finding a new core willing to take to the streets after 30-40K people were murdered is going to be the real challenge to regime change.
Are they waiting in the wings for the bombing to stop? Are they waiting for the bombing to shift from strategic targets (SCUD hunting?) to taking out the local IRGC barracks before they move back to the streets?
I think there needs to be some thought given in targeting to that - what do the people on the ground who they want to have rise up need in order to start rising?
If those 30-40K people were still around, there's your core/beginning of a revolution and regime change.
Without them....who will light the fuse?
There were 30-40K of that center of mass murdered by this regime last month....I think those were probably the most likely people to foment the desired regime change, and they are most certainly not going to be involved.
That leaves the question - who is stepping up next?
Wave 2 of the 'core' will be less certain, less dedicated, less willing to take action.
Finding a new core willing to take to the streets after 30-40K people were murdered is going to be the real challenge to regime change.
Are they waiting in the wings for the bombing to stop? Are they waiting for the bombing to shift from strategic targets (SCUD hunting?) to taking out the local IRGC barracks before they move back to the streets?
I think there needs to be some thought given in targeting to that - what do the people on the ground who they want to have rise up need in order to start rising?
If those 30-40K people were still around, there's your core/beginning of a revolution and regime change.
Without them....who will light the fuse?
An Australian headquarters at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE was struck by an Iranian drone over the weekend.
Some of us will be familiar with Al Minhad from when we called it Camp Mirage.
www.independent.co.uk
Some of us will be familiar with Al Minhad from when we called it Camp Mirage.
Australia says air base near Dubai hit in Iranian drone attack
Defence minister Richard Marles says all personnel are ‘safe and accounted for’
www.independent.co.uk
UAE and Qatar are calling for de-escalation.
If the Americans can't get attacks to zero soon, they should expect basing access cut back. The GCC aren't going to risk their economies and possibly stability for what are essentially Israeli war aims. They have to live beside Iran. The Americas get to walk away whenever.
