Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Halifax Tar]

An Australian headquarters at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE was struck by an Iranian drone over the weekend.

Some of us will be familiar with Al Minhad from when we called it Camp Mirage.

Australia says air base near Dubai hit in Iranian drone attack

Defence minister Richard Marles says all personnel are ‘safe and accounted for’

www.independent.co.uk

Best mess food I ever ate. I hope everyone is ok.

 

[ytz]

If those 30-40K people were still around, there's your core/beginning of a revolution and regime change.

Without them....who will light the fuse?

Exactly this. The time to do this was two months ago. But Trump didn't have the ability to do this because he sent a carrier to Venezuela and had none in the Middle East. Now they are hoping and praying it just sort of works out.

The IRGC is at least a quarter million strong. Some estimates are a million. That is not a group easy to dismantle just with air power.

So the Americans dismantle as much of the weapons manufacturing complex as they can. And they hope the Iranian people do the job. But if they don't, the surviving regime will be on overdrive to get nukes and recapitalize their missile and drone force. What then? Make bombing Iran an annual tradition?

This was a job that needed 100% commitment if it was going to be done. Not something squeezed in between regime change in Venezuela and Cuba and culture wars at home.

And now the regime smells weakness in the Gulf. They won't quit.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Observation - it seems to me that when regimes fall, there is usually a small core of people protesting, acting, and leading. It starts small, and grows as that core build a center of mass.

There were 30-40K of that center of mass murdered by this regime last month....I think those were probably the most likely people to foment the desired regime change, and they are most certainly not going to be involved.

That leaves the question - who is stepping up next?

Wave 2 of the 'core' will be less certain, less dedicated, less willing to take action.

Finding a new core willing to take to the streets after 30-40K people were murdered is going to be the real challenge to regime change.

Are they waiting in the wings for the bombing to stop? Are they waiting for the bombing to shift from strategic targets (SCUD hunting?) to taking out the local IRGC barracks before they move back to the streets?

I think there needs to be some thought given in targeting to that - what do the people on the ground who they want to have rise up need in order to start rising?

If those 30-40K people were still around, there's your core/beginning of a revolution and regime change.

Without them....who will light the fuse?

Hopefully the remaining friends/family of those 30-40k looking to carry on, see things through and exact revenge.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Exactly this. The time to do this was two months ago. But Trump didn't have the ability to do this because he sent a carrier to Venezuela and had none in the Middle East. Now they are hoping and praying it just sort of works out.

The IRGC is at least a quarter million strong. Some estimates are a million. That is not a group easy to dismantle just with air power.

So the Americans dismantle as much of the weapons manufacturing complex as they can. And they hope the Iranian people do the job. But if they don't, the surviving regime will be on overdrive to get nukes and recapitalize their missile and drone force. What then? Make bombing Iran an annual tradition?

This was a job that needed 100% commitment if it was going to be done. Not something squeezed in between regime change in Venezuela and Cuba and culture wars at home.

And now the regime smells weakness in the Gulf. They won't quit.

Putting boots on the ground in a country with a population of 92m is not going to happen.

This could easily turn into a new carved up version of Syria, where there are pockets/zones of control for various factions. To me, that's by far the worst situation. Europe in 12+ months will be overrun with a few more million refugees, hundreds of thousands will die. If this happens that will make 2 countries (Iraq and Iran) that the US put into a worse overall situation for the total population than the system that was previously in place.

If the Iranian Kurds are able to unite their areas and bridge across into Iraqi Kurdistan, what will happen then? War? Acceptance of a free independent Kurdistan encompassing some, but not all, Kurds lands?

I don't know if Trump and his Merry Band of Psychopaths have pulled on the strings far enough to see all of this.

 

[ytz]

Make bombing Iran an annual tradition?

New annual American tradition.

 

[ytz]

Hopefully the remaining friends/family of those 30-40k looking to carry on, see things through and exact revenge.

Why would they? They just saw Trump abandon the first group. And then there's America's long history of abandoning the Kurds. They aren't coming out unless it really really looks like things are collapsing. And absent some other actor, like say the regular army turning, that's not happening.

This could easily turn into a new carved up version of Syria, where there are pockets/zones of control for various factions. To me, that's by far the worst situation. Europe in 12+ months will be overrun with a few more million refugees, hundreds of thousands will die. If this happens that will make 2 countries (Iraq and Iran) that the US put into a worse overall situation for the total population than the system that was previously in place.

This is fundamentally the problem. Netanyahu is fine with a Balkanized Iran. Most Iranians are not. They may actually back the regime if separatists start acting up. And my fear is that this is the horse that Bibi placed his bets on.

If the Iranian Kurds are able to unite their areas and bridge across into Iraqi Kurdistan, what will happen then? War? Acceptance of a free independent Kurdistan encompassing some, but not all, Kurds lands?

Lol. Did you forget about the Turks? They invaded Syria at the mere whiff of Kurdish autonomy, told the Americans to f'k off and put a former ISIS dude in power (albeit turned out somewhat moderate).

I don't know if Trump and his Merry Band of Psychopaths have pulled on the strings far enough to see all of this.

The very fact that they had two months to prepare and didn't have every CRAM and air defence system in place before starting the fight should tell you something.

I think they drank their own Kool Aid on LETHALITY and Venezuela really made them over confident on how easy getting a pliable regime would be. Now they stuck their dick in crazy and don't know how to unfuck the situation. It'll be ironic if listening to Netanyahu leads to the GOP getting an utter spanking at home.

 

[ytz]

To be clear the regime is absolutely evil. From the live flaying of the CIA Station Chief in Beirut to flooding drugs (like Captagon and Cocaine) into the West, to the IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan, to the triple H alliance to the killing of Iranians at home. Pure f'ing evil.

But this is not Venezuela where some rich people can be turned to cut a deal. It's a different beast fighting an enemy motivated by ideology. It requires fortitude and focus that I'm not sure Trump has.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Why would they? They just saw Trump abandon the first group. And then there's America's long history of abandoning the Kurds. They aren't coming out unless it really really looks like things are collapsing. And absent some other actor, like say the regular army turning, that's not happening.



This is fundamentally the problem. Netanyahu is fine with a Balkanized Iran. Most Iranians are not. They may actually back the regime if separatists start acting up. And my fear is that this is the horse that Bibi placed his bets on.



Lol. Did you forget about the Turks? They invaded Syria at the mere whiff of Kurdish autonomy, told the Americans to f'k off and put a former ISIS dude in power (albeit turned out somewhat moderate).



The very fact that they had two months to prepare and didn't have every CRAM and air defence system in place before starting the fight should tell you something.

I think they drank their own Kool Aid on LETHALITY and Venezuela really made them over confident on how easy getting a pliable regime would be. Now they stuck their dick in crazy and don't know how to unfuck the situation. It'll be ironic if listening to Netanyahu leads to the GOP getting an utter spanking at home.

I didn't forget the Turks, how could anyone forget them, lol. I was looking at Iranian Kurdish areas the same as the current Iraqi Kurdish areas - places where the Turks have kept their mitts off of over the last 15+yrs. I would think that for them to go into Iranian Kurdish areas that they would have to deal with the Iraqi Kurdish areas at the same time. But, in that part of the world - any logic is thrown out the window. Hence the last 100yrs.

 

[ytz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028786607466135857

 

[Czech_pivo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028786607466135857

Clown - Circus - 'Merica.

 

[HavokFour]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028786607466135857

And still throwing strays at Ukraine and Zelenskyy through all this.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028786607466135857

Such a fuckwit.

 

[OldSolduer]

To be clear the regime is absolutely evil. From the live flaying of the CIA Station Chief in Beirut to flooding drugs (like Captagon and Cocaine) into the West, to the IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan, to the triple H alliance to the killing of Iranians at home. Pure f'ing evil.

But this is not Venezuela where some rich people can be turned to cut a deal. It's a different beast fighting an enemy motivated by ideology. It requires fortitude and focus that I'm not sure Trump has.

This is the problem isn’t it? How to fight an at the same time physically fighting the adherents.
We’ve seen this before haven’t we?

 

[Czech_pivo]

To be clear the regime is absolutely evil. From the live flaying of the CIA Station Chief in Beirut to flooding drugs (like Captagon and Cocaine) into the West, to the IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan, to the triple H alliance to the killing of Iranians at home. Pure f'ing evil.

But this is not Venezuela where some rich people can be turned to cut a deal. It's a different beast fighting an enemy motivated by ideology. It requires fortitude and focus that I'm not sure Trump has.

Time - you forgot to mention time. It all comes down to this. It will take time, lots of it, to have any chance of success. The US hasn't understood this for decades and its cost them (and the rest of us in the West) dearly. Iran will not be any different.

 

[ytz]

This is the problem isn’t it? How to fight an at the same time physically fighting the adherents.
We’ve seen this before haven’t we?

Exactly. How long did it take to kill Bin Laden? And even then Al Qaeda is not gone today. If the US was going to do this, Trump had an obligation to make the case to the American people why a long war is necessary and kick this off with everything they have.

In the two months since the protests, he didn't make the case at home. Then he failed to deploy enough air defence. And then enough assets. They are now sending bombers and moving Thaad and Patriot batteries from Korea and Japan. We'll see if they can do this before their coalition falls apart in the Gulf.

But also, paradoxically by making it so explicit and repeating this won't be a forever war, that won't give confidence to any dissident there.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Trump won’t take the loss on this. He’ll blame NATO and all the other “losers”.

Like the Emirates and other pro-US ME countries? Who've been getting tons of money and protection from the U.S. so they don't need HUGE armies to protect them? Almost a case to be made for them being freeloaders with more than enough resources to protect themselves outside the U.S. umbrella - after all, isn't Latin America the U.S.'s latest crush?

 

[OldSolduer]

Time - you forgot to mention time. It all comes down to this. It will take time, lots of it, to have any chance of success. The US hasn't understood this for decades and its cost them (and the rest of us in the West) dearly. Iran will not be any different.

Yes that too - especially in our society where we expect instant results despite all the information at hand.

There is no "Easy" button for situations like this.

 

[QV]

It's awfully early to be criticizing the US on this don't you think? They decapitated the regime on day 1. That's a win in of itself.

 

[PrairieFella]

It's awfully early to be criticizing the US on this don't you think? They decapitated the regime on day 1. That's a win in of itself.

Oh its plenty right time to criticize the USA on this, plunging the ME back into chaos for what exactly? There is no plan accounting for Iranian resistance. They expected a Delcy Rodriguez 2.0, done and dusted. You can tell you can tell theyre in over their heads by the screech of the goalposts shifting for the past 24-48 hours.

Man those files have the big guy doing some heinous shit to those kids...

 

[brihard]

It appears Israel has just bombed the assembly of senior clerics (80-90) who assemble to choose a new Supreme Leader. This would be sort of equivalent to bombing the Papal conclave that selects a new pope. If accurate - and I think it is - this is an unprecedented direct attack on the very mechanisms that perpetuate the overall political system and the ability to lawfully transition power.

No word on BDA yet. Taking out an assembly of the most senior religious leaders could have major second and third order effects.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028843492839915669