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Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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QV
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Plenty of time for criticism when it's over. But for now, while the battle is on, I'll at least grant some professional courtesy to the people prosecuting this.
At least Israel and the USA are actually capable of and willing to counter evil in the world. And the recently deleted Iranian regime was pure evil.
At least Israel and the USA are actually capable of and willing to counter evil in the world. And the recently deleted Iranian regime was pure evil.
HavokFour
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It sounds like the US might be running straight into the same wall as the one effecting the war in Ukraine. Big, flashy, and expensive isn't going to work well over the long term compared to the cheaper options now available on the modern battlefield.
A reminder from not all that long ago, July 2025.
www.theguardian.com
Iran's Missile Math: $20,000 Drones Take on $4 Million Patriots
ArchiveA reminder from not all that long ago, July 2025.
US only has 25% of all Patriot missile interceptors needed for Pentagon’s military plans
Exclusive: Low stockpiles for the crucial Patriot missile interceptors led to Trump administration pausing transfers to Ukraine
www.theguardian.com
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I really enjoy the microscopic scrutiny of the US in the first few days after it starts a new round of hostilities. Always a litany of failures.
Regime removal is easy; replacement is hard. Iran did have a bit of democratic tradition decades ago, but not enough to shake revert-to-authoritarian mode when things got tough. It was certainly politically stunted by the Allied meddling in the '40s and the colonial meddling before that, but I also haven't seen evidence of any credible long-term Iranian-government-in-exile projects/think tanks, let alone one that has a well-developed plan for everything that has to happen to get from occupying the institutions to holding the first elections and initiating a project to write a new constitution. That's the greatest weakness.
There are always competing governing wannabe factions waiting for opportunity. Some are not necessarily domestic. A period of civil war is certainly on the table.
Nothing done by western countries has ever been acceptable to the extreme political left (the ones who are always out there with the signs deploring attacks against reprehensible regimes); presumably they want all non-marxist governments to fail and become some flavour of marxist. Ignore them. What does that leave? Maybe just allowing countries to repeatedly try and fail until they get to some kind of non-authoritarian government.
Iran is a special case. Repeat "Death to Israel/America" often enough and work obviously and credibly at developing nuclear weapons and delivery capabilities, and Israel and America are not bound to ignore the threat indefinitely.
Regime removal is easy; replacement is hard. Iran did have a bit of democratic tradition decades ago, but not enough to shake revert-to-authoritarian mode when things got tough. It was certainly politically stunted by the Allied meddling in the '40s and the colonial meddling before that, but I also haven't seen evidence of any credible long-term Iranian-government-in-exile projects/think tanks, let alone one that has a well-developed plan for everything that has to happen to get from occupying the institutions to holding the first elections and initiating a project to write a new constitution. That's the greatest weakness.
There are always competing governing wannabe factions waiting for opportunity. Some are not necessarily domestic. A period of civil war is certainly on the table.
Nothing done by western countries has ever been acceptable to the extreme political left (the ones who are always out there with the signs deploring attacks against reprehensible regimes); presumably they want all non-marxist governments to fail and become some flavour of marxist. Ignore them. What does that leave? Maybe just allowing countries to repeatedly try and fail until they get to some kind of non-authoritarian government.
Iran is a special case. Repeat "Death to Israel/America" often enough and work obviously and credibly at developing nuclear weapons and delivery capabilities, and Israel and America are not bound to ignore the threat indefinitely.
OldSolduer
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daftandbarmy
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Unilaterally attacking a country and attempting to wipe out its government is and should always be subject to immediate scrutiny, particularly when multiple other uninvolved nations are immediately drawn in with property destroyed and people killed. I imagine you would have equally scorned immediate criticism or scrutiny of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. We all know how that played out. Some flaws or errors can be very, very quickly apparent, and pointing them out and discussing them is fair game.
The U.S. government is not entitled to a presumption of good faith, and we’re under no obligation to credit them with a master strategy that isn’t particularly evident and where significant counterfactuals are already apparent.
Killing figures in a government is not necessarily the same as ‘removing the regime’. If the change in who is presently alive in a position doesn’t hinge the mechanics of governance or the policies pursued, that’s not a regime change. Clearly Israel is seeking to destroy the underlying constitutional order in Iran to create the vacuum necessary for true regime change; whether they succeed, and to what extend the U.S. endeavours for the same objective, only time will tell. Right now it almost feels like Israel and the U.S. are warring in paralleled and with overlap, but not the same strategic objectives.
The Iranian regime is reprehensible. That does not make an attack to dismantle it inherently moral or good; there needs to be a reasonable and viable plan for an alternative that isn’t worse either in the outcome or in the destruction to reach one. Again, see Iraq 2003.
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There is a voting system and voting rolls in Iran for as far as I can tell for, municipal, state and federal. The problem with it is the candidates were all vetted and selected by the Clerics/IRGC. So voters could choose between Wanker A or Wanker B. The Shah has made it clear that his job is to lead a transitionary government who maintains stability and services and hold a referendum unto what type of government the people want. While he hopes for a constitutional monarchy, somewhat modelled on British/Canadian system, He did say he will respect the peoples wishes if they choose a pure constitutional republic. He did say that his role is to prevent Islamists and communists (MEK) from attempting to hijack the process.
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be curious to see what these launch numbers look like at the end of the week
what happens when theres no one to choose the new supreme leader?
The ME has been trying over the past few years to bury the hatchet with Israel once and for all for prosperity, security and safety going forward. The hamas attacks in Israel derailed the largest peace deal in the Gulf in my life time. Iran was the largest supporter and possible perpetrator of the attacks. The way it has been reported is Iran was not allowed to bully their way into the future trade deals so they took their cookie and ran away sobbing.
The ME has a problem similar to Europe. They like to have the protection of the US, but they don't actually want the US on the ground. They want the market they provide and the security that can be, along with the money being provided. Again without the actual mean and women on the ground.
When fighting breaks out they want a swift quick high tech solution to the problem. (or they hide it in the hills and keep it away from the major centers). They don't want their own citizens fighting (the wealthy ones anyways).
This Iran situation is going to crumble the Gulf States who have been living under the safety umbrella that was made of mesh screen had so many holes in it that stopped zero moisture, but looked good from far.
This is similar to Ukraine, Europe let Russia invade, waiting on the US to step in and make things better. When the US had no interest directly there. Disaster followed.
Had Europe left their Forces on High alert during their training exercises with NATO and drew a line in the sand with Russia (Ukraine's Eastern Border) and called his bluff. We may have seen a Nuclear war, I doubt it. But as long as they did not cross directly into Russia I think Russia would have backed down.
Here we are and Europe is still unprepared to confront their number one Enemy, both politically, economically and militarily.
We have seen this in the Gulf States. Eventually they will have to cut those who are unfriendly off and make the hard choice to actually stand their ground and get their hands dirty to fix the problems.
Until both areas of hostilities can come to grips the US is not going to fight long term for them, they need to fight for themselves. The US will gladly supply them with tech for a dollar here and there. Nothing will move forward.
The Middle East )similar to Europe in Ukraine) need to stand up as a singular force and go into Iran and sort the mess out. They have the path being paved right now to do so. Are they willing, I don't think so.
This will be wash rinse and repeat while many lives are lost on both sides. We have not seen the damage this will cause on our own soil. Time will tell.
The ME has a problem similar to Europe. They like to have the protection of the US, but they don't actually want the US on the ground. They want the market they provide and the security that can be, along with the money being provided. Again without the actual mean and women on the ground.
When fighting breaks out they want a swift quick high tech solution to the problem. (or they hide it in the hills and keep it away from the major centers). They don't want their own citizens fighting (the wealthy ones anyways).
This Iran situation is going to crumble the Gulf States who have been living under the safety umbrella that was made of mesh screen had so many holes in it that stopped zero moisture, but looked good from far.
This is similar to Ukraine, Europe let Russia invade, waiting on the US to step in and make things better. When the US had no interest directly there. Disaster followed.
Had Europe left their Forces on High alert during their training exercises with NATO and drew a line in the sand with Russia (Ukraine's Eastern Border) and called his bluff. We may have seen a Nuclear war, I doubt it. But as long as they did not cross directly into Russia I think Russia would have backed down.
Here we are and Europe is still unprepared to confront their number one Enemy, both politically, economically and militarily.
We have seen this in the Gulf States. Eventually they will have to cut those who are unfriendly off and make the hard choice to actually stand their ground and get their hands dirty to fix the problems.
Until both areas of hostilities can come to grips the US is not going to fight long term for them, they need to fight for themselves. The US will gladly supply them with tech for a dollar here and there. Nothing will move forward.
The Middle East )similar to Europe in Ukraine) need to stand up as a singular force and go into Iran and sort the mess out. They have the path being paved right now to do so. Are they willing, I don't think so.
This will be wash rinse and repeat while many lives are lost on both sides. We have not seen the damage this will cause on our own soil. Time will tell.
daftandbarmy
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Say what you will about Dubya and his crew of smart people, but at least they had a plan. It turned out to be a terrible plan, but it was a plan.
This looks like the geopolitical equivalent to throwing spaghetti on the wall. And there are no smart people involved in this.
This looks like the geopolitical equivalent to throwing spaghetti on the wall. And there are no smart people involved in this.
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Absolutely. What amuses me is how much of it is wrong. That's why I enjoy it.
The Iranian regime has been at war with Israel and the US pretty much since its inception. It's just that it's been a long war with sporadic hostile activity. Morality doesn't enter into it. Any country periodically attacked by forces of another country or its proxies has the right to do more than ask nicely. Obviously 45+ years of whack-a-mole hasn't convince the Iranian regime to stop. What's left but to remove the problem at the source?
Iran is the aggressor here. Neither Israel nor the US is obligated to make things better for Iran.
HavokFour
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Qatar responds, but isn't officially "joining".
www.jpost.com
Qatar carries out retaliation strikes in Iran, sources say | The Jerusalem Post
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said Doha had not joined the "campaign targeting Iran," but stressed it was "exercising our right in self defense and deterring Iranian attacks."
www.jpost.com
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Their plan had approximately the quality of underpants gnomes. They were going to remove the regime, and then something democratic was going to (magically) arise to replace it. On the most fundamental point that mattered, it wasn't a plan; it was a hope. Approximately everything that happened after the invasion concluded (successfully) was them making it up as they went along.
The Shah moved to the US in his teens. How much influence does the guy have sitting in California for decades with no real contact with a substantially young population that was mostly born after he left? And of the few oldies who remain? They all remember how bad his dad was. There still haven't been any real protests against the regime that are as large as there were against the Shah in his time. I do think the diaspora substantially oversold this. And that could just be a function of how out of touch diasporas become.
There's a non-zero chance the regime comes out stronger out of this with a lot of the GCC countries deciding they can't be dislodged and have to cut deals. Especially if the US forced to cut and run early.
I think the real discussion now is what to do if the regime isn't dislodged. They'll succeed dismantling a lot of the nuclear and missile industrial complex. But then what?
Good ol branch and sequel plans......
I would love to see a graph of total missile and drone attacks by day as a MOP on reducing the air defence threat. It's critical to reduce the attacks to maintain their coalition. Haven't been able to find a single summary graphic.
