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I 100% agree they needed to be dealt with. It should have happened sooner.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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Mills Bomb
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A quick recap on Iranian drone history:
The Iranians began researching some rudimentary UAV's in the mid-1980's.
In 1988 the U.S. attacked the Iranian Navy during "Operation Praying Mantis" as retaliation for mining a U.S. ship. During this operation, the Iranian Navy essentially got whooped losing multiple ships and boats in short order and hundreds of personnel, while U.S. Navy casualties were virtually zero.
Following this defeat, the Iranian strategists realized that there simply was no defeating the U.S. Navy by water.
With this in mind, Iran switched focus investing heavily from that point forward in drones to counter the Americans in the future. Of course the Iranian Navy remained, but more for regional power / adversaries, and without expectations to fight the U.S. Navy.
This is essentially what paved the way for additional drone research funding, and what would ultimately over time lead to production the infamous "Shahed Drone" which is a formidable weapon, as we all know.
When the "Special Military Operation" kicked off and Russia realized the fight was going to be a lot tougher than they initially thought, Russia turned to Iran's Shahed Drone program, and formed a partnership that brought the Shahed Drone into the war against Ukraine, where it's still being used every day.
The Ukrainians have years of experience shooting these down on the cheap, but the drones have a 7-10% success rate when used in swarm style attacks, which is a real problem. No 100% solution seems to exist, so far.
Both Russia and Iran benefitted greatly from the partnership, with Iranian drone operators being suspected of actively participating in the conflict directly helping Russia use the drones against Ukraine's air defence while gaining real experience.
The partnership expanded to the point that Russia created a Shahed Drone factory deep inside the country, in Tartarstan, building them to the original Iranian specifications.
I think there's still a lot of questions on what the solution is to this problem. We'll see in the coming weeks I suppose.
The Iranians began researching some rudimentary UAV's in the mid-1980's.
In 1988 the U.S. attacked the Iranian Navy during "Operation Praying Mantis" as retaliation for mining a U.S. ship. During this operation, the Iranian Navy essentially got whooped losing multiple ships and boats in short order and hundreds of personnel, while U.S. Navy casualties were virtually zero.
Following this defeat, the Iranian strategists realized that there simply was no defeating the U.S. Navy by water.
With this in mind, Iran switched focus investing heavily from that point forward in drones to counter the Americans in the future. Of course the Iranian Navy remained, but more for regional power / adversaries, and without expectations to fight the U.S. Navy.
This is essentially what paved the way for additional drone research funding, and what would ultimately over time lead to production the infamous "Shahed Drone" which is a formidable weapon, as we all know.
When the "Special Military Operation" kicked off and Russia realized the fight was going to be a lot tougher than they initially thought, Russia turned to Iran's Shahed Drone program, and formed a partnership that brought the Shahed Drone into the war against Ukraine, where it's still being used every day.
The Ukrainians have years of experience shooting these down on the cheap, but the drones have a 7-10% success rate when used in swarm style attacks, which is a real problem. No 100% solution seems to exist, so far.
Both Russia and Iran benefitted greatly from the partnership, with Iranian drone operators being suspected of actively participating in the conflict directly helping Russia use the drones against Ukraine's air defence while gaining real experience.
The partnership expanded to the point that Russia created a Shahed Drone factory deep inside the country, in Tartarstan, building them to the original Iranian specifications.
I think there's still a lot of questions on what the solution is to this problem. We'll see in the coming weeks I suppose.
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What was the solution to Germany using the V-1 and V-2?
Did strategic bombing destroy those and halt the attacks?
Or.
Did it require boots on the ground and regime change to make it stop.
Similarly, the Kreigsmarine of WW2 - they realized that they couldn't take on the allies in a stand-up fight (Bismark/Hood notwithstanding) and didn't have the ability to do more than U-Boat warfare....which....again....required boots on the ground and regime change to stop.
Are boots on the ground required?
Is regime change required?
Can you bomb an enemy into changing regime without boots on the ground?
Deep thoughts for a Thursday morning.
Did strategic bombing destroy those and halt the attacks?
Or.
Did it require boots on the ground and regime change to make it stop.
Similarly, the Kreigsmarine of WW2 - they realized that they couldn't take on the allies in a stand-up fight (Bismark/Hood notwithstanding) and didn't have the ability to do more than U-Boat warfare....which....again....required boots on the ground and regime change to stop.
Are boots on the ground required?
Is regime change required?
Can you bomb an enemy into changing regime without boots on the ground?
Deep thoughts for a Thursday morning.
QV
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Brihard seems to be questioning the US's choice to attack Iran because of the results of past conflicts. I suggest the other option was to continue convening, albeit in a sarcastic way, because that is what the last 40+ years have consisted of with Iran to no effective result.
Quirky
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I'd like to see what "participation" would look like with the current state of the CAF. Whipping out the CF-18s?
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We would offer them nothing of any value, that's just a fact.
QV
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It's a sad fact. And more Canadians should humble themselves to this circumstance and consider it when they vote again.
Or they are smart enough not to just declare stuff publicly.
The Kurds have a phrase, "No friends but the mountains."
I have real doubts the Kurds will get involved in a broader uprising. Maybe just securing their own areas. That's about it. And at this point, it looks less like an actual Kurdish insurgency than the Americans and Israelis trying to manifest one by leaking that it's already begun. Maybe they hope to provoke the IRGC into just fighting the Kurds?
If regime change doesn't seem to be happening, I suspect that fomenting civil war is Plan B. At least for Netanyahu. I am not sure the Americans feel the same way.
Those three groups together are 28% of the population. I don't think they have the heft to win a civil war. Unless America wants to maintain a no fly zone over all their areas for another few decades. Then maybe. But what happens when the Turks decide this plan isn't in their interest?
And it would have, if the Americans didn't go after Saddam first.....
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SOFCOM boots on the ground providing targeting.
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1) I don't believe that this US Admin has even begun to think about Plan B, let alone C or D. Bibi would love nothing more than to have chaos expand in the area, it helps solidify US attention, involvement, support, weapons and money for years and years to come.
2) Those 3 ethnic groups all live along the periphery border areas of Iran, the 3 of them don't even link up geographically to be able to support each other if they even wanted to. If the Azeri's get involved and unrest spreads to their home country, the airline companies will be screaming bloody murder. The thin strip of air space currently available to them now to fly from Europe to Asia is already an issue, removing Azeri airspace would crush that available route. Couple that with an ongoing no fly through Iranian air space and its game over.
3) Another point is the Gulf States - its a very narrow piece of water from Iran over to them. If any quantity of Iranians start to make that crossing to the Gulf States on a consistent basis that will more than likely upset those apple carts, full stop. They are NOT built in a way to accept any number of refugees. How many Syrians did they accept over the last 15yrs? How many Palestinians?
HavokFour
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Up and up the price of oil will go.
www.reuters.com
More tankers come under attack as US-Iran conflict spreads in the region
More tankers came under attack in Gulf waters on Thursday as the U.S.–Iran war escalated, and Iranian drones entered Azerbaijan, threatening to spread the crisis to more oil producers in the region.
www.reuters.com
QV
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Is it more likely the professionals in the US military provided the US Administration with a very comprehensive options analysis with follow on assumptions and plans? Following that the deciders make the decision and accept the requisite risks associated?
Or are you truly stuck in this space where everyone down there are bumbling fools not thinking about 5 min after?
I suggest this has been in planning and prep for a long time. Just tracking the intelligence and assembling the target packages would have been massive and an ongoing flow.
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Still, the nits are being picked about "participation" - even with just exchange officers in the mix.
As Ottawa refuses to say exactly how many Canadian troops are in the Middle East, here’s what we know
As Ottawa refuses to say exactly how many Canadian troops are in the Middle East, experts are questioning the government’s claim it has had no role in the American attack on Iran.
www.ctvnews.ca
I guess "participation" is in the eye of the beholder. Watkins appears to be a freelance writer/researcher/plane-ship tracker, so in spite of his relative cred tracking some stuff, gotta wonder about his credentials re: "knowing" the inside of The Machine enough to know "who" "knew" "what" "when".
HavokFour
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From not having enough ammunition in 2022 to this, a sight to see.
www.ft.com
Archive
Pentagon eyes Ukrainian interceptor drones to counter Iran
Kyiv has pioneered cheap and mass-produced machines to battle Russian versions of the Shahed attack drone
www.ft.com
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Depending on what you mean by "follow on," based on the words from the SecWar himself, as quoted in an info-machine transcript, there's at least a suggestion that the bit in yellow may not have been emphasized as much as in the past (highlights mine - source):
Happy to be proven wrong seeing what happens after the kinetic phase is done - and it IS early days in that respect.
Halifax Tar
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Call it want you want its a violent conflict.
As I said previously that's a legitimate target. People in the Navy have to wrap their heads around the fact we are first and foremost a war fighting organization. Everything else is secondary.
What did Jean Chretien say when the US wanted us to go into Iraq ? What did he say about Canadian Gov support for the invasion of Iraq ?
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Not just the U.S. is figuring out who the experts now are ...From not having enough ammunition in 2022 to this, a sight to see.
ArchivePentagon eyes Ukrainian interceptor drones to counter Iran
Kyiv has pioneered cheap and mass-produced machines to battle Russian versions of the Shahed attack drone
Ukraine to help down Iran’s drones: How Russia’s war rewrote the playbook
Europe's biggest conflict since World War II has changed the nature of warfare, including today's Middle East crisis.
