Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Furniture]

You were quoting me, so I’ll set you straight. I’m not ‘declaring a loss’, kindly don’t make things up and pretend I’ve said them. What I’m saying is that thus far things are recognizably on a track that’s become fairly familiar by this point in history and that doesn’t usually leave things in better shape than they were found in. Maybe America will do better in Iran in the long run than they have elsewhere. I won’t pretend to be optimistic about that of course.

Just so you're not under the impression I didn't see this, I will respond.

I stated what you were implying, if you don't want people to imply what you're implying, change your wording.

In 1940 Lord Halifax was quite reasonable in suggesting that the UK surrender, because up until that point, and in fact for many months beyond that point, the UK was actively losing. In 1940, by your estimate the UK should have surrendered to Germany, because history had proved Germany was winning.

Iran is a much harder problem set than Afghanistan or Iraq were. While their ability to hit back is being attrited, unless their government collapses and is replaced, and unless that replacement abandons their weapons development, a strategic victory will take lots more than what we’re seeing now.

Iran is a different problem set, but not necessarily harder. Iran has a long history of protest and rebellion against the regime. Giving the locals the realistic ability to rise up in the following weeks isn't nothing.

Fundamentally this is about whether the U.S. and Israel can stop Iran from digging really deep holes in mountains and building lots of weapons in them. In the past year they’ve shown Iran how deep to dig.

So some things are still missing before this can be said to be going particularly well in light of the very clear economic and political harm being done.

This is about whether the US and Israel, along with their partners in the gulf, can find a way to peace on acceptable terms. We are 6 days in... We have no idea what the regional powers will do, because they don't know what they will do in the new reality that Iran is not the strong man of the gulf.

I'd have more faith in the pessimistic views if they weren't so clearly on partisan lines... I can predict with 100% certainty how someone feels about Trump based on their reaction to this war. If this wasn't a partisan issue, that number would be very different.

 

[Fabius]

Taking an angle of pure pragmatism here: does Canada stand to learn or validate anything by contributing to a collective air defence in the gulf? Is it worth our while to send a six pack of CF-188s to shoot down drones to that our guys and girls can practice doing that and learn some lessons that only come from doing? Maybe we do a fast acquisition of 70mm APKWS?

Low and slow mass produced drones are here to stay. Maybe Canada should take the opportunity to put some RCAF crews in harm’s way and practice killing them before it’s Canadians on the receiving end.

I doubt Canada can make the decision quickly enough nor deploy quickly enough to gain experience before the threat is mostly removed.

Looking at the the Times of Israel, it seems Iran has fired 500 ballistic missiles and over 2000 drones, but the ballistic missile launches are already down over 90%, drone launches down over 83%.

The below article offers some operational insights.
The IDF has dropped over 5000 munitions as of 5 March in 11 strike waves.

US and IDF forces are deconflicting by terrain and tgt types. US responsible for the Gulf coast and the Iranian Navy. IDF responsible for western Iran and Tehran.

Both US and IDF forces are planning on several more weeks with more strike assets coming from the US, to include a higher tempo for the strategic bombers ( likely mostly B2?).

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-planning-for-at-least-1-2-more-weeks-of-iran-ops-over-5000-bombs-dropped/?utm_campaign=most_popular&utm_source=website&utm_medium=article_end&utm_content=3

 

[Brad Sallows]

I'm still not sure you understand how policy is made.

I understand how policy is being made in the Trump administration. A little bit is being made by Trump; a lot is being made by the people staffing the WH and those well-connected a little further out. My point is that administrations dump people, or convince people to dump themselves, all the time.

And now I'm not sure you understand why an independent, non-partisan public service is important. Or why avoiding groupthink is important.

I understand that, too. I also understand that the "public service" isn't as non-partisan as it has to be to claim that mantle.

Groupthink is a problem. So are obstructionism and dumb insolence.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Not in Naval warfare you don't. The aim (typically, but not always) is to mission kill enemy platforms, not outright sink them, and the killing of actual sailors in that conduct of that action is not a consideration.

A sub doesn't have a lot of options. "Shoot them in the leg?"

 

[Furniture]

A sub doesn't have a lot of options. "Shoot them in the leg?"

It's a reflection the the RCN not actually being in a war since 1945... The Wardroom pretends war is a theoretical game to be played out on a maneuver board.

I ran into this same problem during force protection exercises. RCN Officers have a weird "gentleman's" view of fighting completely detached from reality. In the case of the FP ex, the boat that had been shooting at us had turned slightly away, which to the weirdroom indicated they were now "hors de combat" despite still being armed and only slightly moving away... It's the kind of academic idiocy only tolerated in services that get to ignore reality and dwell on past glories.

 

[ytz]

I understand how policy is being made in the Trump administration. A little bit is being made by Trump; a lot is being made by the people staffing the WH and those well-connected a little further out. My point is that administrations dump people, or convince people to dump themselves, all the time.

I understand that, too. I also understand that the "public service" isn't as non-partisan as it has to be to claim that mantle.

Groupthink is a problem. So are obstructionism and dumb insolence.

And maybe if they didn't mistake advice they didn't like for "obstructionism and insolence" they wouldn't be stuck desperately trying to manifest a Kurdish insurgency through the media "leaks". You know.... If they actually had any regional specialists left who could actually negotiate with the Kurds.

There's a consequence to firing everyone you disagree with and surrounding yourself with yes men. We're starting to see it.

Also, you still don't apparently understand how policy made and the difference between public servants and political staff.

 

[ytz]

It's clear the RCN hasn't been in actual naval combat since WWII by this response... This sort of silliness will see RCN sailors killed, just so some NWO can feel like Nelson while they sit in a life raft.

Somehow I don't think this is doctrine. I don't know of any service that teaches "shoot to wound" when in actual combat. The only reason to do that is exceptional intelligence value.

Whatever one thinks of the war, once the shooting starts the onus is on the crew to make decisions quickly. They left Visakhapatnam in India on the 25th. They stopped at Hambantota in Sri Lanka on the 26th. On the 28th when they found out hostilities at commenced they were at sea. They were camping near shipping lanes. They were a day from Diego Garcia. They were 2-3 days from Iran. They had to have known this made them a target. But they didn't return to Sri Lanka and surrender. Another ship just did that. Presumably the sinking of Dena made the consequences clear.