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I prefer the one directly above.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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I think Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Jean Chretien, Mark Carney and every American President, most particularly Bush Jr and Obama would disagree with you.
As you note, Lloyds doesn't just underwrite ships. It underwrites banks. The names of Lloyds are reflective of the community of wealth that decides whether government policies, and the governments that promote them, will be allowed to succeed.
Oldgateboatdriver
Army.ca Fixture
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I don't think so. The names decide if they are willing to take a financial risk. Period. If, as a result of of a government policy, none of them want to take a specific risk, or are unwilling to take it at an affordable rate for the business seeking coverage, then the government who came up with the policy has to decide if it wants to stick with it, change it, or underwrite the risk itself with public money. But the names don't get to decide if the policy or a given government will be "allowed" to succeed or not.
You may have noticed from the article that Lloyd's is currently providing war risks coverage for the Gulf area. It's just that it's unaffordable for the ship owners or charterers. So Trump turns around and wants to offer US government coverage at an affordable price and suddenly Lloyd's wants to participate. trust me, they are not willing to participate to support trumps policy. They are willing to participate because they want a deal where the US government absorbs the extra risk, and get back to making money on the regular part of the risk.
There is also a sidebar to this: While the US government and Lloyd may be willing to provide maritime insurance for the maritime risk, the owners and masters also have to consider, in their decision to sail or not, how they will make their crew accept the risk to their life of sailing the gulf.
In simplified terms it sounds like Lloyd’s wants to incorporate the U.S. Government into their existing system as a ‘name of last resort’ for war risk insurance in the gulf.
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Just considering the size of the US economy and the cost of these latest shakes of the dice - and I include disruptng trade with tariff changes and discombobulating people with outrageous statements.
The US nominal GDP is in the vicinity of 30 Trillion Dollars (30,000,000,000,000).
Most people are living on something closer to 30,000 Dollars.
30,000,000,000,000 is 1 Billion living wages.
The US population is closer to one third of that.
If you leverage that 30,000,000,000,000 at 10%, after the fashion of a real estate developer or home owner, then you have access to 300,000,000,000,000. Equivalent to securing a 300,000 mortgage.
These disturbances are measured in Billions of dollars.
3 Billion Dollars, - 3,000,000,000 - is equivalent to $3 to an individual with a $30,000 income living in a $300,000 home. (And if we assume 2.5 people per home then you are looking at an income in the 60-75,000 range dependin on who is earning)
$3 won't even buy you a lottery ticket.
The US nominal GDP is in the vicinity of 30 Trillion Dollars (30,000,000,000,000).
Most people are living on something closer to 30,000 Dollars.
30,000,000,000,000 is 1 Billion living wages.
The US population is closer to one third of that.
If you leverage that 30,000,000,000,000 at 10%, after the fashion of a real estate developer or home owner, then you have access to 300,000,000,000,000. Equivalent to securing a 300,000 mortgage.
These disturbances are measured in Billions of dollars.
3 Billion Dollars, - 3,000,000,000 - is equivalent to $3 to an individual with a $30,000 income living in a $300,000 home. (And if we assume 2.5 people per home then you are looking at an income in the 60-75,000 range dependin on who is earning)
$3 won't even buy you a lottery ticket.
Oldgateboatdriver
Army.ca Fixture
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Pretty well. If the ships don't sail because they can't afford the premium Lloyd's is charging for transit through the Gulf, then the names make no money. But if the US government is willing to cover the "extra" portion of the risk all by itself, then the names will gladly go back to covering the usual portion of the risk and make money!
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I think, given the position of the Dollar, and the Pound before it, that "the markets" dominated by Lloyds's names and their fellow wealth-holders, literally bank on the US Treasury as the insurer of last resort.
And that is what concerns the markets most these days. Do they stick with The Donald's Dollar or switch to Xi's Renminbi? Which is the least worst bet?
Oldgateboatdriver
Army.ca Fixture
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You lost me Kirkhill: What are you talking about?
P.S. In your calculation of whatever up there, how do you account for the fact that the top 10% of Americans get 60 % of that 30T$, leaving 12T$ for 90% of the US population?
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Last I heard from the President was "unconditional surrender" and Trump's say in who the next Iranian leader is.
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I am saying that everything costs money and that government only survive if they have money or can access money. Big plans require big money and that means borrowing from those that have it. Whether you are a homeowner, a PM or a President.
No money. No government.
...
Trump can afford to spend the equivalent of that homeowner's $3 a day for a long time.
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And if he doesn't like the outcome he can continue shaking the dice.
I’m going to go with no at this time.
What would be good to know is how long is too long for the no new war types giving this a pass.
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A little bit more information about the torpedo sinking of the frigate.
2 other ships are in port for the war. (India and Sri Lanka)
www.navalnews.com
- USS Charlotte fired 2 MK 48, with one missing.
- the ship was apparently seeking permission from Sri Lanka to cover in harbour
2 other ships are in port for the war. (India and Sri Lanka)
India Reveals That It Interned Iranian Naval Vessel IRIS Lavan on March 4 - Naval News
Indian government sources revealed that India took in Iranian landing ship IRIS Lavan at Kochi on March 4.
www.navalnews.com
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Years ago, my United Church cofirmation classes coincided with my public high school's english class review of religious studies.
The difference between west and East, in both dicussions, became the line versus the circle.
The West assumed a line. We start from where we are and assume a destination and plot a course accordingly, aiming for perfection.
The East assumes circles. We don't know where we are on the circle but we can be sure that we will be here again.
Boyd's OODA loop is merely a statement of the obvious to most Easterners.
And it probably explains their acceptance of the Continuous Improvement model.
Continuous means continuous....never ending.
You can never stop mowing the lawn and shovelling the drive way.
I don't think there is a sense of a clear objective in the sense of a final solution and then universal peace breaks out so everone can go home.
I think the best this course of action can achieve is to apply a control system to an otherwise random process.
And the US, is determined that they, and not xi and Putin, are going to be managing that control system.
The difference between west and East, in both dicussions, became the line versus the circle.
The West assumed a line. We start from where we are and assume a destination and plot a course accordingly, aiming for perfection.
The East assumes circles. We don't know where we are on the circle but we can be sure that we will be here again.
Boyd's OODA loop is merely a statement of the obvious to most Easterners.
And it probably explains their acceptance of the Continuous Improvement model.
Continuous means continuous....never ending.
You can never stop mowing the lawn and shovelling the drive way.
I don't think there is a sense of a clear objective in the sense of a final solution and then universal peace breaks out so everone can go home.
I think the best this course of action can achieve is to apply a control system to an otherwise random process.
And the US, is determined that they, and not xi and Putin, are going to be managing that control system.
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I think I saw a meme of Marco Rubio dressed up like an Ayatollah.
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The price of gas will settle that question.
Oldgateboatdriver
Army.ca Fixture
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Kirkhill, please don't use the words "final solution" in a context where religion is at issue. 
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The last time unconditional surrender was met, a power was conquered on the ground and another had two atomic bombs dropped on them and there was still one condition on this surrender.
These guys are trying to achieve this with a Libya strategy that doesn’t have an armed resistance on the ground. The SecDef also seems to be pursuing a Rumsfeld-on-Steroids strategy of using light forces with no plan for after the bombs stop falling.
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Kirkhill, please don't use the words "final solution" in a context where religion is at issue.
As I write this it dawns on me that I am reiterating my experience commissioning plants. There is a desired steady state out come but everytime I change the inputs the outcome is unknown. I have to keep changing inputs until I get where I want to be. And then I have to continue observing and changing inputs to keep my operating characteristics within that 6-sigma belt.
And when I walk away from the controls I need somebody I trust to keep managing them the same way.
