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Iran Super Thread- Merged

Yeah. But that requires a fixed launch site. No shoot and scoot. Hope the launch crew is ready to eat a GMLRS.
It needs a fixed launch site. Doesn’t mean it needs a fixed command site. Set up the launch site in advance a few km inland, maybe somewhere hard to detect like a narrow valley, and then relay it to a cellular data network. The controller could be basically anywhere, they talk to the hidden ground station on signals that blend in with normal cell data, and then the ground station sends the command signers over the fiber spool.

In 2008 when I was doing convoys in Kandahar we were getting really good at using our ECM bubbles to defeat RCIED. So they started running a command wire from the IED to an ICOM radio a few hundred meters away in the desert out of our RCM bubble. They could observe at a distance, send the trigger signal to the receiver outside of our bubble, and it would send the signal down the wire. Then the next few innovations were about where they would run the wire so our culvert checks wouldn’t catch it… My Toto lost several troops to that.

I’m reasonably sure than today, 18 years hence, the Iranians (well informed by Russia) can run a simple data relay.

Remember that I’m not talking about new weapons here. Russia and Ukraine have been firing these at each other and doing their best to counterbattery for quite a while now.
 
Depends on how many they have left, and then can coordinate targeting and firing for. I'm seeing something in the region of 2000 drones and 500-600 missiles with the launch rates dropping more than 90% since day 1. They had most of their stockpiles and launch systems knocked out, had smaller stockpiles than anticipated, or are holding more in reserve to threaten shipping/infrastructure, or whatever combination there of. Even if they land troops they may figure saving them for infrastructure is a higher priority than hitting troops on the ground (who would hopefully have robust air defence and C-UAS if that happened). Not to say trying to take and hold the Iranian islands or coast is a good idea, or free of danger, but given how much of their potential arsenal they haven't fired (particularly low systems like Shaheds) than it seems like they either don't exist, or are being held back still.
Entirely different weapon classes. I’m not talking about Shaheds when I say ‘drone to the face’, I’m talking about the small cheap ones killing probably 1000+ Russians and Ukrainians a day. An FPV, a 10-20km fiber spool, and a few pounds of explosives. The stuff we see countless videos of killing dismounts in Ukraine.
 
Polling mostly disagrees with your assertions here. I suspect your mixing up "Americans" with "Trump voters". Cause even a good chunk of Republicans aren't comfortable with this war. And the majority of Democrats and Independents are opposed.
Polls are an opportunity to gripe. As I wrote, Americans gripe.
 
World Cup 2026 -- IRN: Ain't going. USA: Why not drop in?
 
Entirely different weapon classes. I’m not talking about Shaheds when I say ‘drone to the face’, I’m talking about the small cheap ones killing probably 1000+ Russians and Ukrainians a day. An FPV, a 10-20km fiber spool, and a few pounds of explosives. The stuff we see countless videos of killing dismounts in Ukraine.
True, I was on a one track mind with the Shahed attacks from the last week, I wasn't thinking smaller systems that would go along with any kind of ground response. If any ground forces are deployed, hopefully they've taken all the lessons of the last bunch of years to heart and been trained and equipped accordingly. Even if there are losses it might at least be an exposure to what could happen in the future and be a wake up call for changes in training, doctrine and equipment.
 
True, I was on a one track mind with the Shahed attacks from the last week, I wasn't thinking smaller systems that would go along with any kind of ground response. If any ground forces are deployed, hopefully they've taken all the lessons of the last bunch of years to heart and been trained and equipped accordingly. Even if there are losses it might at least be an exposure to what could happen in the future and be a wake up call for changes in training, doctrine and equipment.
Iran’s theory of victory in such an event would probably be based on the “three thousand dead Americans” benchmark arguably established in Iraq and Afghanistan. All they need to do is drag it out and kill American troops til the midterms.
 
World Cup 2026 -- IRN: Ain't going. USA: Why not drop in?
It is embarrassing when the whole team looks for asylum
 
It needs a fixed launch site. Doesn’t mean it needs a fixed command site. Set up the launch site in advance a few km inland, maybe somewhere hard to detect like a narrow valley, and then relay it to a cellular data network. The controller could be basically anywhere, they talk to the hidden ground station on signals that blend in with normal cell data, and then the ground station sends the command signers over the fiber spool.

In 2008 when I was doing convoys in Kandahar we were getting really good at using our ECM bubbles to defeat RCIED. So they started running a command wire from the IED to an ICOM radio a few hundred meters away in the desert out of our RCM bubble. They could observe at a distance, send the trigger signal to the receiver outside of our bubble, and it would send the signal down the wire. Then the next few innovations were about where they would run the wire so our culvert checks wouldn’t catch it… My Toto lost several troops to that.

I’m reasonably sure than today, 18 years hence, the Iranians (well informed by Russia) can run a simple data relay.

Remember that I’m not talking about new weapons here. Russia and Ukraine have been firing these at each other and doing their best to counterbattery for quite a while now.
Can I ask a question about what you described above?
Based on my limited knowledge of the education level of the 'average Taliban', who were these individuals who were able to see the new issue presented to them by your counter moves, assess those moves, come up with a working solution and then implement it successfully by their definition. Where these individuals taught this outside of Afghanistan and then smuggled back into the country? Did they have 'learning centers' in country where this was taught? Was this something that was 'self learned' at a regional level based on specific issues and then it was pushed out to other regions in Afghanistan? I would assume that these people were high valued and the first effort was to capture them and attempt to learn from them?
 
Or POTUS has the Marines land on the Iranian coast….

I’m 50/50 on that
Doesn't need to be a mainland coast, right?

Google Maps
Screenshot 2026-03-11 130903.jpg
1773249067571.png
 
Maybe, maybe not ....
Yes, but has he ever explained things clearly or stayed on message for any length of time?
 
Doesn't need to be a mainland coast, right?

Google Maps
View attachment 98914
View attachment 98915
Israel took out the electrical stations on the island in their 12 day war. I suspect the current electrical supply is a hodgepodge of repairs from that.
 
Shell pulling on the thread.....


Shell declares force majeure to clients who buy Qatari LNG, sources say​


Shell, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas trader, has declared force majeure on LNG cargoes it buys from QatarEnergy and sells to its clients worldwide, three sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter of LNG, announced a production halt at its 77 million tons per annum (mtpa) facility last week and declared force majeure on LNG shipments

Other Qatari LNG buyers, including TotalEnergies and some Asian companies, have received force majeure notices from Qatar and told customers they would not be selling them Qatari LNG as long as the facilities remain shut, two other sources said.

A source close to TotalEnergies said the French oil and gas major has not declared force majeure, a notice used to describe events outside a company’s control, such as a natural disaster, which usually releases it from contractual obligation without penalty

Sources told Reuters last week that the force majeure notices sent to clients stated that LNG deliveries for March will not be affected, with the impact being felt as of April.29dk2902l
 
Shell pulling on the thread.....


Shell declares force majeure to clients who buy Qatari LNG, sources say​


Shell, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas trader, has declared force majeure on LNG cargoes it buys from QatarEnergy and sells to its clients worldwide, three sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter of LNG, announced a production halt at its 77 million tons per annum (mtpa) facility last week and declared force majeure on LNG shipments

Other Qatari LNG buyers, including TotalEnergies and some Asian companies, have received force majeure notices from Qatar and told customers they would not be selling them Qatari LNG as long as the facilities remain shut, two other sources said.

A source close to TotalEnergies said the French oil and gas major has not declared force majeure, a notice used to describe events outside a company’s control, such as a natural disaster, which usually releases it from contractual obligation without penalty

Sources told Reuters last week that the force majeure notices sent to clients stated that LNG deliveries for March will not be affected, with the impact being felt as of April.29dk2902l
Not alone ....
 
Polling mostly disagrees with your assertions here. I suspect your mixing up "Americans" with "Trump voters". Cause even a good chunk of Republicans aren't comfortable with this war. And the majority of Democrats and Independents are opposed.

I think Americans were willing to tolerate spikes in oil prices during other Mideast wars because they strongly supported those wars at the outset.

I’m guessing they won’t be so tolerant of oil prices for a war they don’t support and no one can articulate why they should.
 
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Can I ask a question about what you described above?
Based on my limited knowledge of the education level of the 'average Taliban', who were these individuals who were able to see the new issue presented to them by your counter moves, assess those moves, come up with a working solution and then implement it successfully by their definition. Where these individuals taught this outside of Afghanistan and then smuggled back into the country? Did they have 'learning centers' in country where this was taught? Was this something that was 'self learned' at a regional level based on specific issues and then it was pushed out to other regions in Afghanistan? I would assume that these people were high valued and the first effort was to capture them and attempt to learn from them?
Shrug I was just a kid sitting in the back of an RG-31 til it was time to stick my face in a culvert. My understanding is that the enemy IED makers and emplacers were aggressively targeted but I can’t speak to the intelligence side of that.

But I don’t get the sense that this was anything beyond quite basic electronics, and easily teachable to others.

Data relay would of course be more complex, but Iran is industrialized and has a developed enough tech sector to do much more than what I describe.
 
This from CENTCOM not too long ago ....
amdccw.jpg
"U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is issuing a warning to civilians that the Iranian regime is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz to conduct military operations that threaten international shipping. This dangerous action risks the lives of innocent people. Civilian ports used for military purposes lose protected status and become legitimate military targets under international law. CENTCOM urges civilians in Iran to immediately avoid all port facilities where Iranian naval forces are operating ..."
 
Shell pulling on the thread.....


Shell declares force majeure to clients who buy Qatari LNG, sources say​


Shell, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas trader, has declared force majeure on LNG cargoes it buys from QatarEnergy and sells to its clients worldwide, three sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter of LNG, announced a production halt at its 77 million tons per annum (mtpa) facility last week and declared force majeure on LNG shipments

Other Qatari LNG buyers, including TotalEnergies and some Asian companies, have received force majeure notices from Qatar and told customers they would not be selling them Qatari LNG as long as the facilities remain shut, two other sources said.

A source close to TotalEnergies said the French oil and gas major has not declared force majeure, a notice used to describe events outside a company’s control, such as a natural disaster, which usually releases it from contractual obligation without penalty

Sources told Reuters last week that the force majeure notices sent to clients stated that LNG deliveries for March will not be affected, with the impact being felt as of April.29dk2902l

Not alone ....

Ouch. Things are going to be absolutely painful later down the line once the buffer the SPR is providing starts running dry.
 
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