Iran Super Thread- Merged

[brihard]

Ouch. Things are going to be absolutely painful later down the line once the buffer the SPR is providing starts running dry.

Man no kidding. This is grim.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Ouch. Things are going to be absolutely painful later down the line once the buffer the SPR is providing starts running dry.

The longer the FM, the longer the pain obviously.

For Trump its now coming down to strictly dollars and cents - the classic 'cost vs benefit' analysis. The higher the dollar cost the greater the risk of 'losing' his Gulf State buddies as their risk of civil unrest spikes higher. He's bombed them already twice in under 12 months.

How many times will Muhammed (with Trump being Muhammed, the irony in the that), go to the mountain before he realizes that it has no benefit going forward?

 

[Czech_pivo]

This from CENTCOM not too long ago ....
View attachment 98920
"U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is issuing a warning to civilians that the Iranian regime is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz to conduct military operations that threaten international shipping. This dangerous action risks the lives of innocent people. Civilian ports used for military purposes lose protected status and become legitimate military targets under international law. CENTCOM urges civilians in Iran to immediately avoid all port facilities where Iranian naval forces are operating ..."

Pull on this thread looking for the worst possible outcome.

The US/Israel destroys on the ports and/or the fishing fleets (which number about 11,500 vessels) and as a result 1.5 million tons of seafood produced annually collapses. What does that do to the nutrition of all those Iranians that rely on the income and the food?

 

[brihard]

Pull on this thread looking for the worst possible outcome.

The US/Israel destroys on the ports and/or the fishing fleets (which number about 11,500 vessels) and as a result 1.5 million tons of seafood produced annually collapses. What does that do to the nutrition of all those Iranians that rely on the income and the food?

Don’t be absurd. The U.S. military wouldn’t just go and arbitrarily bomb small civilian vessels in their home waters without being confident they’re engaged in hostilities against the United States.

 

[HavokFour]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031770453895713044

Mines or not, USV's are already a problem themselves.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031738100284641411

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031797732562567610

 

[The Bread Guy]

Don’t be absurd. The U.S. military wouldn’t just go and arbitrarily bomb small civilian vessels in their home waters without being confident they’re engaged in hostilities against the United States.

Meanwhile, highlights from today's ISW roll-up ....

Iran Update Morning Special Report, March 11, 2026

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute are publishing two updates daily to provide...

understandingwar.org

Key Takeaways​

1. Iran has deployed fewer than 10 naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s reticence to deploy the naval mines en masse indicates that while Iran is willing and capable of mining the strait, it remains hesitant to do so due to the far-reaching political and economic costs Iran would incur in doing so.
2. Iran is continuing to target commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz as part of its effort to disrupt maritime traffic and threaten freedom of navigation. Iranian media published images on March 11 that show a likely Iranian unmanned surface vessel (USV) impact along the waterline of the Thai-flagged MAYUREE NAREE cargo ship.
3. The US and Israeli combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security and military targets. ISW-CTP has observed strikes in 10 provinces since March 10 at 3:00 PM ET.
4. Iran continued to attack the Gulf States and Israel. The Saudi Defense Ministry stated on March 10 that it intercepted 13 Iranian drones targeting multiple locations, including the Shaybah oil field.
5. Hezbollah has claimed 13 attacks targeting IDF positions and forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff at 3:00 PM ET on March 10. Israeli media reported that Hezbollah has reportedly fired more than 850 rockets at Israel since March 2.

 

[HavokFour]

The timer has really started now. The US consumes 20M barrels of petroleum products per day, or 20% of global consumption, 400M barrels is going to go quick. This represents 1/3rd of all global reserves being released.

EDIT: In 2022 they released 200M barrels at around 1-1.5M barrels per day, and took 4 weeks before it worked into the system enough to see any meaningful impact. Lots of pain ahead, might want to top up.

IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict​

Archive

 

[brihard]

One or possibly two ships are ablaze off Basra, Iraq.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031848780560286186

Iran has really stepped up attacks on shipping over the last 24 hours…

 

[kkwd]

One or possibly two ships are ablaze off Basra, Iraq.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031848780560286186

Iran has really stepped up attacks on shipping over the last 24 hours…

Has this been confirmed by a reliable source? Sabreen News has an extreme agenda to be generous. That fire seems it might not even be on the ship but behind it. But I can't tell for sure.
Link

Sabereen News


Type of movement: Media facade for fasail (armed groups), initially with special links to Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), but later morphing into a broader cross-muqawama (resistance) outlet with possible direct ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF). Social media propaganda channel with nonkinetic, information operations focus. Nonviolent support to kinetic military, kinetic paramilitary, and social operations aimed at weakening domestic and foreign opponents of armed muqawama groups.

 

[brihard]

Has this been confirmed by a reliable source? Sabreen News has an extreme agenda to be generous.
Link

I can’t say for sure but there appear to be multiple differently sourced videos? I’d expect corroboration before long.

 

[Lumber]

Other than targeting their naval, air, drone, and ballistic capabilities, has the US/IDF been attacking any ground forces? Tank battalions and the like? I ask because, if one goal is Regime change, wouldn't the land component of the Iranian military and IRGC not be an important force to neutralize? They have hundreds of tanks and thousands of other vehicles. Seems like they've left their ground forces relatively intact, or else maybe those strikes just aren't sexy enough to make it into the news.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Interesting image for the history books after the forthcoming sticks and stones era…

 

[brihard]

Other than targeting their naval, air, drone, and ballistic capabilities, has the US/IDF been attacking any ground forces? Tank battalions and the like? I ask because, if one goal is Regime change, wouldn't the land component of the Iranian military and IRGC not be an important force to neutralize? They have hundreds of tanks and thousands of other vehicles. Seems like they've left their ground forces relatively intact, or else maybe those strikes just aren't sexy enough to make it into the news.

Lots of hits on IRGC and the Basij paramalitary force. Both grounds are used by the regime to repress oppositions. Plenty of hits on Iranian police stations too.

Has this been confirmed by a reliable source? Sabreen News has an extreme agenda to be generous. That fire seems it might not even be on the ship but behind it. But I can't tell for sure.
Link

Tons of coverage now. Two tankers fully ablaze, one of which is believed to be the U.S. owned and Marshall Islands flagged Safesea Vishnu. So, they’re touching American boats. We’ll see how that goes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031881472148156906

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Reports of loitering drones going after IRGC checkpoints and vehicles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031792105987645579

 

[HavokFour]

Reports of loitering drones going after IRGC checkpoints and vehicles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031792105987645579

Sounds like more LUCAS.

This came out a few hours after that X post, we'll see if these strikes will have any effect.

Exclusive: US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse, say sources

U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran's leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

www.reuters.com

 

[Jarnhamar]

We can read someones t shirt from space. Unless Iranians are launching drones from their backyards they have to be somewhat centralized. US and Israel should just start blasting drops operators/sites. Include some barracks and other locations with uniformed members.

 

[FJAG]

We can read someones t shirt from space. Unless Iranians are launching drones from their backyards they have to be somewhat centralized. US and Israel should just start blasting drops operators/sites. Include some barracks and other locations with uniformed members.

This can make it a long hunt for them all.

 

[OldSolduer]

This can make it a long hunt for them all.

For real? This appears to me to be very silly,

 

[Jarnhamar]

This can make it a long hunt for them all.

That's pretty clever.

I have a simple solution to that cleverness.

 

[OldSolduer]

That's pretty clever.

I have a simple solution to that cleverness.

Boom?