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Iran Super Thread- Merged

brihard said:
Til the markets close on Friday, one might say.

Note he only says they’re pausing strikes on energy infrastructure; the rest is still game on.

I’ll be watching to see if Iran makes a point of hitting another ship or something just to show there isn’t some sort of truce.
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Needed a few extra days to let his buddies and kids to put some big, fat shorts in preparation for Friday.
 
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Remius said:
www.reuters.com

Crude oil's Catch-22: Pricing for Trump TACO trade makes it less likely

The crude oil futures markets are still largely pricing for an early resolution to the conflict in the Middle East that results in the full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Of note is Russia wanting this to keep going, and Iran more than happy to, to get better terms of any negotiated end.
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On that note, Ukraine hit Russia’s oil export terminal at Primorsk (Baltic sea) pretty hard.
 
Remius said:
I imagine Ukraine is looking to capitalize on events.
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They're definitely cooking something up. They just finished an operation that saw the destruction of 27 air defense systems, and the Russians saw a record breaking 8000 casualties over the last 7 days. Ukraine is even making steady gains in territory.

Last time we saw prep work like this was the 2022 counter offensive and the summer 2025 oil infrastructure blitz.

But back to Iran, uh oh.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036168127801626984
 
Apparently there is some confusion within the IRGC as to who is talking to Trump's team, perhaps a way to create cracks and splinters in the remaining leadership?
 
Colin Parkinson said:
Apparently there is some confusion within the IRGC as to who is talking to Trump's team, perhaps a way to create cracks and splinters in the remaining leadership?
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I doubt it.

I would sooner believe Trump is sundowning a conversation he had in his head or with the corner lamp before I believe his rambling was part of a larger ruse de guerre
 
rmc_wannabe said:
I doubt it.

I would sooner believe Trump is sundowning a conversation he had in his head or with the corner lamp before I believe his rambling was part of a larger ruse de guerre
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Trump may not be the greatest, but I suspect they are talking to someone, apparently in Iran and with some influence. However the IRGC just released a bunch of crazy demands for peace that includes the US pulling out completely from the ME and get Israel to stop bombing Hezbollah.
 
Colin Parkinson said:
Trump may not be the greatest, but I suspect they are talking to someone, apparently in Iran and with some influence. However the IRGC just released a bunch of crazy demands for peace that includes the US pulling out completely from the ME and get Israel to stop bombing Hezbollah.
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Perhaps it has come to the point (hopefully) where talking to "Iran" and talking to "the IRGC" are not the same thing.
 
The Bread Guy said:
"This time I mean it. Thank you for your attention."
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And he accused Obama of constantly moving his 'line in the sand'.

NavyShooter said:
I recall learning once upon a time the following phrase:

"Leadership is the art of influencing human behaviour so as to accomplish the mission in the manner desired by the leader."

Not everyone uses the same type of brush when painting, and not everyone uses the same style of leadership.

There's some folks who I've learned a lot from when it comes to leadership. Some who I'd follow, some who's style I've adapted to my own, and some who I watch and have learned from so I know what not to do as a leader.

Bringing that over to the Iran/US/Isreal/etc situation, I think that there is a consolidated plan being run by the military leadership. I think that plan will run its course, and will achieve its objectives. I also think that the civilian leadership of the US is doing a very poor job of messaging the reasons, the needs, and the desired outcomes.

But.

With the 'orange dude' and his history with public speaking and such, I think there's a combination of him missing the script more often than he's hit it, and the media deliberately cueing to only parts of what is being said to make him look worse.

Observe that BBC News got caught creatively editing Hesgeth's speech not that long ago.

Observe also that our own national broadcaster was recently accused of only focusing on negative coverage of the leader of the opposition....and the only way he's managed to get out from under that thumb is to have gone on a podcast south of the border.

Leadership needs to communicate clearly, and while that may be happening internal to the military involved, it is certainly not happening with the civilian leadership.

NS
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But how much or how well can they implement their plans if the SecWar and/or CiC keep changing timelines, focus, goals, etc?

Trump doesn't strike as somebody who sticks to a plan.
 
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This was always the danger with this kind of war. You come at the King, you best not miss.

Sure, they've substantially degraded the regime's capability. But somehow massively boosted their credibility as a threat. Imagine how the Gulf and the Levant are feeling today knowing that the US can't defeat the Islamic Republic or even protect them from the missiles and drones. They'll be forced to cut deals with Iran. All while the regime slaughters more at home. It's all around a kind of bleak outcome.
 
ytz said:
This was always the danger with this kind of war. You come at the King, you best not miss.

Sure, they've substantially degraded the regime's capability. But somehow massively boosted their credibility as a threat. Imagine how the Gulf and the Levant are feeling today knowing that the US can't defeat the Islamic Republic or even protect them from the missiles and drones. They'll be forced to cut deals with Iran. All while the regime slaughters more at home. It's all around a kind of bleak outcome.
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Sometimes in war it’s the unexpected outcomes that occur rather than the expected one.
 
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