Iran Super Thread- Merged

[brihard]

Tit for tat is generally "you hit me; I hit you". "You hit me; I hit that guy over there" isn't it.

The "neutral" community should act to force Iran to confine itself to dealing with the US and Israel and their stuff. It's an elementary requirement of any "rules-based order" that the community enforce rules, equally, even when it rather would not. Iran isn't in the same league as trying to force the US, or Russia, or China to behave. This sort of abandonment in the face of egregious misconduct (for decades, no less) is why some people started ignoring things like "IRBO" and doing things their own way.

UAE is not neutral. They’ve allowed the U.S. to base assets used in the attacks on Iran. The UAE chose to be a party to the armed conflict.

 

[Brad Sallows]

UAE is not neutral. They’ve allowed the U.S. to base assets used in the attacks on Iran. The UAE chose to be a party to the armed conflict.

They have. Iran attacking non-military targets, though, is in the same grey-shading-to-black area as the US's proposals to attack power stations. The targets aren't selected for military necessity.

 

[McG]

Mini-Me kicks off...

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launch missile at Israel for first time since war began​

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launch missile at Israel for first time since war began - follow live

As the war enters its second month, Donald Trump's special envoy says the US is hopeful of meetings with Iran "this week".

www.bbc.com

I have seen some speculation that Houthis may attempt to contain (and be seen attempting to contain) their escalation to just Israel in hopes that US and Saudi Arabia leave them alone for it. Watch to see if they engage commercial shipping or leave that alone as an indicator on this.

 

[brihard]

They have. Iran attacking non-military targets, though, is in the same grey-shading-to-black area as the US's proposals to attack power stations. The targets aren't selected for military necessity.

Both sides chose to let that genie fly a while ago. Although there’s a case to be made for either side that attacking the resource industries that are relied on for inputs to military manufacturing could be fair game. It would be a stretch, but I don’t think any of the belligerents care much about what any non-party thinks of their targeting anyway.

 

[GR66]

Both sides chose to let that genie fly a while ago. Although there’s a case to be made for either side that attacking the resource industries that are relied on for inputs to military manufacturing could be fair game. It would be a stretch, but I don’t think any of the belligerents care much about what any non-party thinks of their targeting anyway.

The Ploiesti Oil Fields, Schweinfurt Ball Bearing Plants, Cologne Rail Yards and the Ruhr Valley dams come to mind...

 

[Good2Golf]

The targets aren't selected for military necessity.

They are when they’re selecting them for the Regime’s necessity.

Are you not seeing this as ECOAML?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Whatever happens between now and say 9am EST on Monday, it will be interesting to see what The Donald says/does as I'm not sure he's willing to allow the stock market to repeat what occurred on Friday again on Monday, or the rest of the shorten week (with the market being closed on Friday). Its also 'Quarter end' on Tuesday, so that very well may factor into his words/actions as well.

How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out​

How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out

The oil industry's grim outlook for global oil and gas supplies stands in contrast to the Trump administration's promise that the disruption is short term.

www.cnbc.com

• Oil industry executives painted a grim picture of the Iran war supply disruption at S&P Global’s annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.
• They warned that the disruption is bigger than the markets understand and prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon.
• The disruption to jet fuel, diesel and gasoline is even bigger. Shortages are rippling through Asia and will hit Europe by April, they said.
• Security experts said escalation of the war is likely. The conflict could break the Gulf Arab nations economies

 

[Brad Sallows]

They are when they’re selecting them for the Regime’s necessity.

Are you not seeing this as ECOAML?

The Iranian government is executing the contemporary equivalent of terror bombing in order to convince third parties (nations) to apply political pressure to the US, in order to preserve the Iranian government. Terrorism is what the Iranian government does. Treat it like terrorism.