Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Kirkhill]

This dicussion about the Yanks not taking lessons from Ukraine and Russia about clustering aircraft and making them easy targets reminds me of this.

Hickam Airfield - December 7 1941

https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Upcoming/Press-Room/News/Article-Display/Article/128806/japanese-surprise-attack-on-hawaii/#:~:text=One%20pilot%20was%20killed%20while,carriers%20could%20not%20be%20salvaged.

188 aircraft in Hawaii before the attack.

155 destroyed on the ground.

Virtually all the rest destroyex in the air trying to get into the fight.

The aircraft were clustered because dispersed aircraft were felt to be at risk to saboteurs.

I guess they could have done with a few more security guards to cover all those dispersed aircraft.

 

[Eaglelord17]

They did a long time ago

Not fully. They still provide intel and allow the Europeans to buy American equipment to give to Ukraine.

If America is short munitions they won’t sell any and if they lose a bunch of important aircraft they are less likely to use them over Ukraine and more likely to use them over Iran.

 

[ytz]

The strikes on Prince Sultan Air Base make this abundantly clear.

European allies say Russia is helping Iran more than the U.S. has acknowledged, sources say

The Europeans also argue that the war in Ukraine is intertwined with the war in Iran due to the cooperation between Russia and Iran.

www.cbsnews.com

It's very obvious too. The Iranians don't have satellites. And the American aircraft, like the E-3 wasn't parked at an obvious spot. It was parked on a taxi way. And the Compass Call just look like Hercs from far away. Knowing where the aircraft were parked and when they would be there was pretty clearly the work of a power with substantial ISR. It's either the Russians or Chinese.

 

[brihard]

It's very obvious too. The Iranians don't have satellites. And the American aircraft, like the E-3 wasn't parked at an obvious spot. It was parked on a taxi way. And the Compass Call just look like Hercs from far away. Knowing where the aircraft were parked and when they would be there was pretty clearly the work of a power with substantial ISR. It's either the Russians or Chinese.

Oof, did they hit a Compass Call?

 

[Infanteer]

3D Chess by the White House?

https://twitter.com/x/status/2038337988640350271

 

[HavokFour]

Oof, did they hit a Compass Call?

I've heard a lot of talk but no solid confirmation yet, unlike the E-3.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Japanese market opens down over 4.5%.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) just under 103$/barrel. Brent 116$/barrel.
Trump will need some seriously major good news to turn things around for Monday’s open.

 

[HavokFour]

Japanese market opens down over 4.5%.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) just under 103$/barrel. Brent 116$/barrel.
Trump will need some seriously major good news to turn things around for Monday’s open.

I'm not seeing much light at the end of this tunnel.

FM: Japan ready to stabilize FX, possibly by selling U.S bonds

Tokyo's last resort is to sell US bonds to raise dollars, then buy yen.

www.idnfinancials.com

Trump Team Examines What Oil as High as $200 a Barrel Would Mean

 

[brihard]

Iran has struck a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant. No word on damage but an Indian national working there was killed.

Indian worker killed in Iranian attack on Kuwait power, desalination plant

An Indian worker was killed ‌in an Iranian attack on a power and water ⁠desalination plant in Kuwait, which also damaged a service building at the facility, Kuwait’s Ministry ‌of ⁠Electricity and Water said early on Monday in ⁠a post on social media ⁠website X.

www.reuters.com

 

[MilEME09]

Iran has struck a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant. No word on damage but an Indian national working there was killed.

Indian worker killed in Iranian attack on Kuwait power, desalination plant

An Indian worker was killed ‌in an Iranian attack on a power and water ⁠desalination plant in Kuwait, which also damaged a service building at the facility, Kuwait’s Ministry ‌of ⁠Electricity and Water said early on Monday in ⁠a post on social media ⁠website X.

www.reuters.com

To many desalination plants go down and entire countries might be non viable

 

[HavokFour]

To many desalination plants go down and entire countries might be non viable

UAE is at least a little bit ahead of the game, compared to others in the region.

Though getting the water to the country currently might pose a bit of an issue.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Yup. Very roughly it is 2,200 kms in length and 1,200 kms across at its widest point. Again very roughly speaking that's the size of the US running from the top of Maine to half way into Florida and lying between the eastern sea cost and the Mississippi River.

The defenders' advantage is that they do not have to defend everywhere. They can pick and choose and create effects far beyond their individual locations. Plus time is on their side.

I do wonder what role their neighbouring countries will play over the long haul.

Problem is they do have to defend almost everywhere, against their own population. Meaning what forces they have can't be concentrated. They need to hold the critical bits of every city and town, or risk losing it.

 

[brihard]

Problem is they do have to defend almost everywhere, against their own population. Meaning what forces they have can't be concentrated. They need to hold the critical bits of every city and town, or risk losing it.

To what extent is this true? Even in really awful civil conflicts, most people seem to sit it out and just try to survive.

 

[HavokFour]

To what extent is this true? Even in really awful civil conflicts, most people seem to sit it out and just try to survive.

They also just demonstrated how far they were willing to go by killing 30,000 people before this even started.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

To what extent is this true? Even in really awful civil conflicts, most people seem to sit it out and just try to survive.

The 85 million are the sea, within it is still enough motivated people to fight. The organized internal Persian resistance is rather new and finding it's feet, they also don't have a source of arms. Get arms to them and things will change quickly.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Iran has struck a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant. No word on damage but an Indian national working there was killed.

Indian worker killed in Iranian attack on Kuwait power, desalination plant

An Indian worker was killed ‌in an Iranian attack on a power and water ⁠desalination plant in Kuwait, which also damaged a service building at the facility, Kuwait’s Ministry ‌of ⁠Electricity and Water said early on Monday in ⁠a post on social media ⁠website X.

www.reuters.com

Pushing Canada and the world closer and closer to a recession.

 

[daftandbarmy]

The 85 million are the sea, within it is still enough motivated people to fight. The organized internal Persian resistance is rather new and finding it's feet, they also don't have a source of arms. Get arms to them and things will change quickly.

This guy agrees...

Ali Soltani on military action and resistance groups in Iran​

Mequon resident Ali Soltani, who fled Iran in the 1970s, considers prospects for United States forces to conduct a ground invasion of Iran and notes internal armed groups opposing the Iranian regime.

Ali Soltani:
You see, this regime cannot be overthrown by airstrikes, OK? You need people on the ground to fight these Basijs and militias and the IRGC and all the members of the suppressive forces. So U.S. — either what happens is that either U.S. or Israel have to put boots on the ground, which is, for a country like Iran, 90 million is a large country. It's very hard. Or we should rely on the people of Iran. We have an organized armed resistance inside Iran. Actually, a couple weeks ago, right before — a few days, three, four days before — the U.S. attacked the compound of Khamenei and killed the supreme leader, this armed opposition — 250 members of the armed opposition of the MEK, Mojahedin-e-Khalq — they attacked that compound. One hundred fifty of them, 100 of 'em unfortunately died or were arrested — their names have been given to United Nations Human Rights Organization, and then 150 of 'em turned back to their bases. What I'm saying is that, there is an organized resistance armed in Iran. We should help them rather than try to bring U.S. or Israeli troops on the ground. It would be very hard. It would be much easier for the Iranian people to do it that way because they know everything. They know who these people are, they know where they live, and they can fight them. So that would be the best solution for us.

Ali Soltani on military action and resistance groups in Iran

Ali Soltani on prospects for a ground invasion of Iran and internal armed groups.

pbswisconsin.org

 

[Eaglelord17]

The 85 million are the sea, within it is still enough motivated people to fight. The organized internal Persian resistance is rather new and finding it's feet, they also don't have a source of arms. Get arms to them and things will change quickly.

That 85 million will be shrinking as some are drawn to support the regime as a Iran vs US/Israel war, not as the people vs the regime.

The US has done a horrible job on the propaganda side of this war. Bombing schools and declaring a holy war isn’t exactly what you say to get the local population on your side. The Iranians don’t even need to make stuff up, only need to broadcast what they have said.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

This guy agrees...

Ali Soltani on military action and resistance groups in Iran​

Mequon resident Ali Soltani, who fled Iran in the 1970s, considers prospects for United States forces to conduct a ground invasion of Iran and notes internal armed groups opposing the Iranian regime.

Ali Soltani:
You see, this regime cannot be overthrown by airstrikes, OK? You need people on the ground to fight these Basijs and militias and the IRGC and all the members of the suppressive forces. So U.S. — either what happens is that either U.S. or Israel have to put boots on the ground, which is, for a country like Iran, 90 million is a large country. It's very hard. Or we should rely on the people of Iran. We have an organized armed resistance inside Iran. Actually, a couple weeks ago, right before — a few days, three, four days before — the U.S. attacked the compound of Khamenei and killed the supreme leader, this armed opposition — 250 members of the armed opposition of the MEK, Mojahedin-e-Khalq — they attacked that compound. One hundred fifty of them, 100 of 'em unfortunately died or were arrested — their names have been given to United Nations Human Rights Organization, and then 150 of 'em turned back to their bases. What I'm saying is that, there is an organized resistance armed in Iran. We should help them rather than try to bring U.S. or Israeli troops on the ground. It would be very hard. It would be much easier for the Iranian people to do it that way because they know everything. They know who these people are, they know where they live, and they can fight them. So that would be the best solution for us.

Ali Soltani on military action and resistance groups in Iran

Ali Soltani on prospects for a ground invasion of Iran and internal armed groups.

pbswisconsin.org

MEK is a whole other ball of wax, while they are armed and organized, you really need a moderate group that is armed and organized. Fun fact, Saddam equipped MEK with Chieftains captured from Iran.

People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Brad Sallows]

The US has done a horrible job on the propaganda side of this war. Bombing schools and declaring a holy war isn’t exactly what you say to get the local population on your side. The Iranians don’t even need to make stuff up, only need to broadcast what they have said.

If in the end the investigation shows that a US strike hit the school, there are only two ways it happened. Either it was deliberate, or it was the culmination of a chain of errors.

Keeping this sort of stuff in mind, now try to imagine whether critics' assertions that the US should have tried to build "a coalition" were ever realistic. (Leave aside the time factor and information security risk.) Which ME nations are going to jump into a coalition in which Israel is the second-ranking partner in a war against a majority Muslim country? Which European nations with restless Muslim minorities?