Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Brad Sallows]

1,2 and 3 were simply steps to achieve 4. Memory fades but I don't recall any mention of neutralizing their military as a 'goal' at the beginning of this; only their nuclear program and regime change. If regime change wasn't a goal, when did they (US and/or Israel) target the hierarchy quite early on?

At the outset the aims were vague, and amounted to pre-emption. In Israel's case, for reasons unspecified (assumed by most to be "nuclear capability"); in the US's case, because they expected Israel's operations to prompt attacks against the US. Hence my use of "emerge".

"Decapitation" is just part of the opening now, along with elimination of air defences and naval threats and whatever else is necessary to set favourable conditions for subsequent operations.

 

[KevinB]

The disrupt C&C, new leaders might adopt a different attitude.

I’m a huge fan of targeted killings…

 

[Czech_pivo]

At the outset the aims were vague, and amounted to pre-emption. In Israel's case, for reasons unspecified (assumed by most to be "nuclear capability"); in the US's case, because they expected Israel's operations to prompt attacks against the US. Hence my use of "emerge".

"Decapitation" is just part of the opening now, along with elimination of air defences and naval threats and whatever else is necessary to set favourable conditions for subsequent operations.

Never any doubt that they couldn't remove their air force and navy from the equation. Not sure that they need that many assets to do so, but understand why they took more assets along than necessary.

As for 'subsequent operations', I again will say that this is a country of 93 million people. Placing 10,000 troops on the ground in 1 or 2 locations really won't amount to nothing at all. The farther they go inland from the coast, the harder their logistics will become. So far, their 'step 2' planning has not 'wowed' a single person in the world outside of the Maga supporters.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I’m a huge fan of targeted killings…

I assume that's only for 'our side', not 'both sides', correct?

 

[lenaitch]

"Decapitation" is just part of the opening now, along with elimination of air defences and naval threats and whatever else is necessary to set favourable conditions for subsequent operations. withdrawl.

Perhaps more accurate now.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Never any doubt that they couldn't remove their air force and navy from the equation. Not sure that they need that many assets to do so, but understand why they took more assets along than necessary.

As for 'subsequent operations', I again will say that this is a country of 93 million people.

The preliminary "air phase" during which a bunch of stuff gets knocked down has been around for decades. Establish air superiority if not supremacy, same for naval, degrade C&C, etc, etc.

Situating the estimate for what "subsequent operations" will/should/might be is just making stuff up.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Perhaps more accurate now.

Sure. Iran was powerless to prevent a major write-down of its defences and thus powerless to prevent the US and Israel from destroying almost anything they choose, even if they can't occupy the ruins.

Obvious conclusion: any country less powerful - and maybe some which are more powerful - than Iran is powerless to prevent the same thing. Any country powerless to prevent that same thing is vulnerable right down to its last generating station, substation, refinery, pipeline, bridge, tunnel, rail node, factory, airport, shipping terminal, etc, etc. Add in leadership, not all of whom will have beliefs that they will be admitted to some afterlife paradise, and thus might be strongly motivated to want to continue living the life they have.

But, yes, the headlines will be that the US and Israel retreat with their tails between their legs.

 

[QV]

Sure. Iran was powerless to prevent a major write-down of its defences and thus powerless to prevent the US and Israel from destroying almost anything they choose, even if they can't occupy the ruins.

Obvious conclusion: any country less powerful - and maybe some which are more powerful - than Iran is powerless to prevent the same thing. Any country powerless to prevent that same thing is vulnerable right down to its last generating station, substation, refinery, pipeline, bridge, tunnel, rail node, factory, airport, shipping terminal, etc, etc. Add in leadership, not all of whom will have beliefs that they will be admitted to some afterlife paradise, and thus might be strongly motivated to want to continue living the life they have.

But, yes, the headlines will be that the US and Israel retreat with their tails between their legs.

The western liberal media continues to do great harm the world over.

 

[HavokFour]

And another. I believe yesterday it was found that Switzerland was also denying most requests, though hasn't made a formal announcement.

Austria denies US use of airspace for Iran military operations

Austria has denied the United States use of its ‌airspace for military operations against Iran due to Austria's neutrality law, the country's defence ministry said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

 

[brihard]

And another. I believe yesterday it was found that Switzerland was also denying most requests, though hasn't made a formal announcement.

Austria denies US use of airspace for Iran military operations

Austria has denied the United States use of its ‌airspace for military operations against Iran due to Austria's neutrality law, the country's defence ministry said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

The hell of it is some of the grounds he outlined last night - Iran moving its nuclear program too deep underground, building a massive conventional deterrence missile inventory - are the sorts of details that if backed by solid intelligence could have potentially been persuasive to a few key allies had the U.S. sought to make the case and get a bit of buy in before kicking things off. It probably could have helped draw in a bit more insight and reality checking on likely outcomes that might have refined plans enough for this all to go better.

Not saying it definitely would have, but it could have been less of a gong show.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The western liberal media continues to do great harm the world over.

When you're done with your copy of Pravda can I please read it?

 

[brihard]

When you're done with your copy of Pravda can I please read it?

Dude the price spikes are in oil, not toilet paper.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Dude the price spikes are in oil, not toilet paper.

Yes 11.5% today and still time for it to be 12% or higher.

Just read that Amazon is putting a 3.5% fuel surcharge on all 'Seller' goods.

Amazon to add 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for sellers as Iran war drives up energy prices

With the war in Iran now in its fifth week, Amazon said it's adding a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for third-party sellers in the U.S. and Canada.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Eaglelord17]

Sure. Iran was powerless to prevent a major write-down of its defences and thus powerless to prevent the US and Israel from destroying almost anything they choose, even if they can't occupy the ruins.

Obvious conclusion: any country less powerful - and maybe some which are more powerful - than Iran is powerless to prevent the same thing. Any country powerless to prevent that same thing is vulnerable right down to its last generating station, substation, refinery, pipeline, bridge, tunnel, rail node, factory, airport, shipping terminal, etc, etc. Add in leadership, not all of whom will have beliefs that they will be admitted to some afterlife paradise, and thus might be strongly motivated to want to continue living the life they have.

But, yes, the headlines will be that the US and Israel retreat with their tails between their legs.

You can win the battles but still lose the war.

Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc.

Both wars which they kicked the enemies ass but still lost the war.

Right now the fiscal and diplomatic consequences are likely going to be greater for the US than the desire to carry on this war.