Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Brad Sallows]

There aren't enough eyes to roll at the absurdly perfectionist standards against which people are measuring the US. I would have expected the Iranians to down more aircraft by sheer luck by now, but their luck is shittier than their AD. What are we at - eight one-thousands of one percent of all sorties result in a downed aircraft?

 

[QV]

How many aircraft has Iran downed vs US and Israel successful sorties.

Edit: posted this before I saw brads post.

 

[OldSolduer]

There aren't enough eyes to roll at the absurdly perfectionist standards against which people are measuring the US. I would have expected the Iranians to down more aircraft by sheer luck by now, but their luck is shittier than their AD. What are we at - eight one-thousands of one percent of all sorties result in a downed aircraft?

How many aircraft has Iran downed vs US and Israel successful sorties.

Lady Luck is sometimes for you, sometimes against you.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I might watch Bat21 tonight, just because …

 

[HavokFour]

Whack-a-mole update. Mountains make for very good bunkers.

Iran Is Quickly Repairing Missile Bunkers, U.S. Intelligence Says

Reports cast doubt on how close the United States is to destroying Iran’s missile capability, a key goal in the war.

www.nytimes.com

Iran is quickly repairing its missile bunkers, U.S. intelligence says.​

Iranian operatives have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs, returning them to operation hours after an attack, according to U.S. intelligence reports.

Iran has also retained a significant amount of its missiles and mobile launchers, the reports say.

 

[brihard]

There aren't enough eyes to roll at the absurdly perfectionist standards against which people are measuring the US. I would have expected the Iranians to down more aircraft by sheer luck by now, but their luck is shittier than their AD. What are we at - eight one-thousands of one percent of all sorties result in a downed aircraft?

Who’s holding the U.S. to any high standard here? We’re discussing the facts as they come out, and commenting generally on USAF’s shitty day, and how Iran may spin it. I suspect everyone here would agree that it’s surprised it’s taken so long and been so few.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Who’s holding the U.S. to any high standard here? We’re discussing the facts as they come out, and commenting generally on USAF’s shitty day, and how Iran may spin it. I suspect everyone here would agree that it’s surprised it’s taken so long and been so few.

It's not any kind of "win" or achievement for Iran. It underscores how absurdly they're outmatched.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I might watch Bat21 tonight, just because …

These are worth a watch too... unless you're aircrew of course

 

[brihard]

It's not any kind of "win" or achievement for Iran. It underscores how absurdly they're outmatched.

In a war where domestic political sentiment in the U.S. has strategic impact on how this goes, I’d suggest you’re misjudging that. U.S. aircraft losses - and, God forbid, if there’s a capture of aircrew - will certainly influence how Americans view the war. Iran gains leverage from showing they’re still in the fight. It’s also a bit of material for their regime to boost the sentiment of the civilian population.

It would be silly to pretend there’s not some advantage to Iran from literally shooting down a couple of aircraft.

 

[Kirkhill]

I said this right from the beginning.

I was really surprised they were attacking the UAE given how much they smuggle through there.

I can't imagine the Israelis or the Americans are shedding many tears over the occasional detonation in Qatar given their - shall we say duplicitous - role in association with Hamas.

Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman have been as solidly in the western camp as any in that region are likely to be.

Yemen has never been the same since Denis Healey yanked Mad Mitch from the Crater. They could have gone the Oman route.

Which leaves the House of Saud and the UAE.

I would have thought the UAE would have been solidly in the western camp as well. I think they still are despite the enemy of my enemy stuff in the Sudan.

The continuing problem is the religious civil war within the House of Saud - the liberals and the conservatives with neither side moving past their illiberal tendencies.

And Pakistan is in much the same boat as the House of Saud.

Iraq, like Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, is just a battlefield.

Turkey sits on the sidelines and looks for opportunities

Iran, and in particular, the IRGC mob, sits in the middle. As I have said before it played the same role in Afghanistan and Iran as Cambodia and Laos did in Vietnam. Sovereign sanctuaries protected by, and exploiting, the laws of the United Nations.

If Trump is going to act like a bull in a china shop he might as well make sure he smashes all the crockery.

 

[QV]

USA/Israel: 100,000
Iran: 2

Brihard et al, CNN, MSNBC: “advantage Iran”

 

[ytz]

USA/Israel: 100,000
Iran: 2

Tactics vs strategy.

I don't think anybody has ever suggested the US and Israel isn't absolutely dominating the tactical fight.

Not sure they are actually winning the strategic fight.

 

[Czech_pivo]

USA/Israel: 100,000
Iran: 2

Brihard et al, CNN, MSNBC: “advantage Iran”

If we’re sitting here 1 month from now on 3 May still talking about the above stats but oil is sitting above 140$/barrel, parts of the worlds economy has ground down to a trickle, large parts of the world have tipped into the early stages of a recession, etc. Would you still say that the US/Israel has ‘won?’

 

[brihard]

USA/Israel: 100,000
Iran: 2

Brihard et al, CNN, MSNBC: “advantage Iran”

A battlefield event giving some advantage to Iran does not mean the same as they have the advantage. But I know you know that and are choosing to be disingenuous, and that’s why I tend not to take you seriously.

But, to humour you, do you want to sit wherever it is you’re sitting right now and actually tell us in seriousness that Iran shooting down U.S. aircraft or, worst case, capturing aircrew would not be advantageous to them? Normally in a war breaking the enemy’s kit and capturing their people is viewed as a good thing. Don’t contend it’s not in this case?

Militarily Iran is getting its ass kicked in the conventional sense. I don’t think there are any credible claims otherwise. But military is not the only dimension to a war, and political
impacts of even modest military accomplishments can be outsized.