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Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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From their perspective? Why not?
A crash in the desert forced the Americans out of Iran the last time.
And this President is a lot more fickle and sensitive to public image than his predecessors.
HavokFour
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One very hectic day. Apparently there was a second A-10 that made an emergency landing with a disabled engine, and a Stratotanker that had some sort of emergency over Israel.
I hope CSAR finds the WSO soon. They're going to have a massive target on their backs now.
I hope CSAR finds the WSO soon. They're going to have a massive target on their backs now.
Yes. But in a war that’s optional and already deeply unpopular, and that Trump has already claimed to have essentially won, such losses continue to chip away at his credibility and support.
Concur, and that’s consistent with what I said earlier about Iran’s best bet for how to treat any hypothetical POW.
Yes. I don’t think Americans at home will care much about the impact on the Arabs themselves though, and my comments have been in the context of impact on domestic politics.
See above.
And if anyone suggested this would move it much I would agree with you. This is minor, but it is a couple points on the board for Iran. A very lopsided score, certainly.
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You keep missing the forest for the trees.
I know this is exceptionally difficult for you.
But try it.
What would you do in their shoes with their ideological beliefs?
Think through it.
Probably one of the most difficult things you've done. But worthwhile to actually understand the enemy once in a while.
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Ouch. Emirates Global Aluminium estimates up to a year to restore full production at a site Iran hit the other day.
HavokFour
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Canadian aluminum just got a lot more interest.
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This is the only part that matters, but a question that has to be answered is "whose support"?
The two most common reactions I'm seeing out there are basically two groups of people telling themselves what they already want to believe. One camp looks at the numbers and the ability to do CSAR over enemy territory irrespective of everything people have claimed about Iranian capabilities and tells themselves they (the US) are even more awesome than they thought. The other camp bemoans every setback as confirmation of quagmire and disgrace.
A big setback - say, a Bay of Pigs result obtained by the raiding-forces-in-being the US has in the region - would move the needle noticeably. Pinpricks are just providing grist to people to convince themselves they're more right than they were the day before.
The biggest factor is probably just time. "No new wars" Trump can become "OK, one short new war" Trump for his committed supporters but each passing day moves some of those people past their limit for "short". Add in Trump's own off-putting "Mother of all Battles" threats and usual incoherence, and there are two factors that are probably so dominant as to make the odd Iranian hit here and there just random noise.
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Good news for Baie Comeau.
The only way media has that information is if authorities are feeding them that. Fairly sure there's no reporters on the CSAR birds.
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I hadn't realized I had taken such a large lease in your head.
The Israelis and Americans aren't playing by Iran's cultural or ideological rules, and don't have to. They aren't actually trying to occupy the country, or remake it's government a certain way, or secure Gulf trade to suit themselves.
And Iran's not playing on their metrics of success either.
You keep asserting that only the American and Israelin measures of success should be considered.
And as explained umpteen times, the exact same thing was heard though two decades of GWOT. And you admit that was at minimum not a strategic success. What's stopping you from applying the same logic here?
But to go back to the original question. I will ask again. Are you at all capable of thinking from the Iranian perspective or is red teaming beyond your faculties?
The military or the Admin wants the message out. I wouldn't rule out concern about Iran using any fog of war for disinfo ops. So maybe better to report recovered personnel quickly.
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RTA in Kitimat also reports their reservoir is expected to hit full pool this year, so lot's of energy to produce aluminum and sell electricity to BC Hydro.
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I'm sure they want the message out.
Releasing that one pilot is recovered while another is still missing can still directly increase risk to the one still evading.
-Narrows the seaecher’s focus.
-Once it’s public that only one pilot remains, forces can concentrate ISR, patrols, and checkpoints on a single evader, tightening the search net.
-Confirms survival and timeline.
-Could expose recovery patterns.
-Give clues about response time and a bunch of other things.
Silence is better from a personnel recovery and OPSEC standpoint.
