Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Brad Sallows]

The US should be finding more pictures of relatives of IRGC honchos living large in western countries and start dropping leaflets.

Going to be a bit of hell to pay when the internet opens up there again, too.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Base on the second article.

I heard the countries doing the alternate driving days are basing it on their version of SIN numbers. Odds drive one day, evens drive the next.

Not sure how they're managing that to keep it fair and honest, man what a nightmare.

First news of a European country being directly affected by the US/Israel war against Iran.

Jet fuel crisis: Rationing triggered at four airports in Italy

Jet fuel crisis: Rationing triggered at four airports in Italy​

Four northern Italian airports introduce restrictions on jet fuel due to the energy crisis, with priority given to long-haul and medical flights. Meanwhile, Ryanair has warned that if the Iran war continues, summer flights are at risk across Europe.​

According to Air Bp Italia, the British Petroleum group's specialised aviation division, the restrictions will remain in place until at least 9 April, with the aim of preserving reserves for essential services.

The official notices clearly specify that 'priority will be given to ambulance flights, state flights and flights with a duration of more than three hours'.

For all other short-haul flights, a supply ceiling of 2,000 litres per aircraft has been imposed, Il Corriere della Sera reported, after reviewing the Notam bulletins distributed to airport companies.

Although this amount may appear substantial, technical calculations provided by pilots to the newspaper make it clear that this quantity guarantees less than one hour of autonomy for aircraft such as Boeing 737s or Airbus A320s.

Lufthansa confirmed to Die Welt that the criticality is already palpable in Asian markets and that 'the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the more critical the security of paraffin supplies could become'. The instability has already triggered record price increases, with fuel prices soaring over 100% in some areas.

As reported by Corriere della Sera, Ryanair is monitoring the situation very closely. Although supplies are guaranteed until the end of May, the company does not rule out the possibility of summer cancellations if the conflict in Iran continues.

 

[ytz]

First news of a European country being directly affected by the US/Israel war against Iran.

The crisis is like a bow wave. Hit Asia first. Now it's starting to hit Europe. Few more weeks and it'll reach our shores. I suspect that realization is starting to get through to Trump. Which is why we're starting to see the panicky posts.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The crisis is like a bow wave. Hit Asia first. Now it's starting to hit Europe. Few more weeks and it'll reach our shores. I suspect that realization is starting to get through to Trump. Which is why we're starting to see the panicky posts.

When fertilizer costs in India, Indonesia, Thailand, etc start to increase to the point that protests/riots start to occur in those places, and others, then the ripple will become stronger. To an earlier point that I think you brought up, its only affecting 'brown people' as of now, once that ceases and 'white people' become more affected, the voices to end this will become much louder.

Ryan Air says that if not 'fixed' by May, they will start to cancel summer flights throughout Europe. You f*ck around with European summer vacations and just see what happens next.

EDIT: Forgot to add this.

Air Canada announced today an additional 50$ per person 'fixed surcharge' on vacation packages booked with them. Add in the 3.5% fuel surcharge that Amazon announced just before Good Friday, so the 'bow wave' has reached us already.

Lastly, I mentioned this in another forum, the cost of gas that I saw driving from Burlington to rural PA (1hr east of Pittsburgh) this weekend seeing my daughter for Easter at Uni ranged from 4.01$ to 4.20$ USD a gallon. I saw diesel at 5.39$ USD a gallon.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Big Food on the Hormuz unpleasantness ...

Opinion | Disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz are triggering a slow-simmering food crisis - FreshFruitPortal.com

The food system has no strategic backstops to offset the crisis at the Strait of Hormuz, writes Francisco Martin-Rayo, CEO and Co-Founder of Helios AI.

www.freshfruitportal.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The problem for the Houthi and Iran is that once they do the thing they threaten, they have no more cards to play, and they may provoke action from the countries happy to watch America twist for now.

When the Houthi last shut down the BAM, Europe came out to play. If they do it again, Europe might decide that free passage of the BAM and Straits of Hormuz are in their best interests after all. China might even get in on the action if they start losing money because they can't ship to some of their most profitable trading partners.

It is really in the interest of the world to fix Yemen and squeeze the Houthi back into their little enclave in the mountains. It does not help that KSA and UAE started a proxy war against each other there, just before the Iranian conflict kicked off. KSA and UAE need to be told to sort out their sh*t there and come up with a common plan to stabilize the rest of Yemen and help it contain the Houthi and elements of ISIS still there.

How the Houthis rule in Yemen: prisons, a personality cult, and pilfered food aid

 

[HavokFour]

It sounds like Trump has publicly backed down on striking desalinization plants in Iran. Not sure if this includes oil & gas, but Israel is striking those targets already regardless. Iran has also rejected a 45 day ceasefire.

Iran calls for 'definitive' end to war as it formally rejects US ceasefire proposal, state media reports

Iranian media says Tehran has passed its response to mediators in Pakistan; meanwhile, Trump calls a separate proposal for a 45-day truce a "very significant step".

www.bbc.com

Trump repeats threats on power plants and bridges - but says US 'won't go further​

We can bring you more now from Trump's comments to the press made a short while ago at the White House.

The president repeated threats to Iran that the US would continue striking its infrastructure if they don't surrender.

"And if they don't, they'll have no bridges. They'll have no power plants. They'll have no anything."

He added that he "won't go further, because there are other things that are worse than those two."

"If I had my choice, what would I like to do? Take the oil," he says.

"Because it's there for the taking. There's not a thing they can do about it.

"Unfortunately the American people would like to see us come home. If it were up to me I'd take the oil, I'd keep the oil [...] make plenty of money and I'd also take care of the people of Iran."

High prices are here for the mid-terms.

Iran War Live Updates: Trump's Hormuz Threat Looms as Tehran Vows to Step Up Attacks

www.nytimes.com

Trump also set the expectation that Americans may need to weather higher gas prices “for a couple of months.”

“We’re never going to let them have a nuclear weapon, and if we have to pay a little extra for fuel for a couple of months, and we’ll do that, but we’re never going to allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, because this beautiful White House wouldn’t look so good,” Trump told reporters after officiating the Easter Egg Roll event.

Energy companies and analysts broadly expect it to take months after the conflict ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens for most wells and energy infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf to start operating again.

And under the bus they go again. Still no way to know if anything was even sent in the first place.

Trump says US sent ‘a lot’ of guns to Iranian protesters but ‘the Kurds took’ them

President’s remark appears to be first confirmation of U.S. involvement in aiding protests that wracked Iran for weeks

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Good2Golf]

And under the bus they go again. Still no way to know if anything was even sent in the first place.

Trump says US sent ‘a lot’ of guns to Iranian protesters but ‘the Kurds took’ them

President’s remark appears to be first confirmation of U.S. involvement in aiding protests that wracked Iran for weeks

www.independent.co.uk

Kurds: “Hold our non-alcoholic beers…”

 

[HavokFour]

Kurds: “Hold our non-alcoholic beers…”

Kurdish Iranian groups deny receiving guns from US following Fox report | The Jerusalem Post

Reports about Kurdish Iranian groups tend to be sensitive because the groups fear an Iranian regime crackdown, and the groups have already been targeted by hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles.

www.jpost.com

 

[HavokFour]

Politician name calling deleted by staff.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041175375498150035

Boots on the ground announcement Tuesday?

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041204051811897721

 

[ytz]

The more he talks the high oil prices go. I ain't complaining.

But long term....

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-06/the-petrodollar-loop-supporting-the-treasury-market-is-broken

Archive link: https://archive.is/UpE2M

 

[OldSolduer]

Politician name calling deleted by staff.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041175375498150035

Boots on the ground announcement Tuesday?

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041204051811897721

He’s really lost his mind. Who’s his military advisors - oh yeah Hegseth fired them

 

[Navy_Pete]

The crisis is like a bow wave. Hit Asia first. Now it's starting to hit Europe. Few more weeks and it'll reach our shores. I suspect that realization is starting to get through to Trump. Which is why we're starting to see the panicky posts.

The recovery will be too; if everything opened back up tomorrow, still 3-4 weeks minimum for shipping to get back up and running with actual deliveries, then processing time and distribution once the crude is proceesed into whatever, so something like a 6-8 week lag.

Wouldn't be surprised if some refineries shut down and do some heavy maitenance periods ahead of schedule either.

 

[ytz]

He’s really lost his mind. Who’s his military advisors - oh yeah Hegseth fired them

At this point just enjoy the show.

 

[HavokFour]

A new idea is planted.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041221635835904481

 

[Infanteer]

Attacks on power plants. Been done before. Not a great track record.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2040906369096638516

https://media.defense.gov/2017/Dec/29/2001861964/-1/-1/0/T_GRIFFITH_STRATEGIC_ATTACK.PDF

The evidence shows that the only sound reason for attacking electrical power is to effect the production of war material in a war of attrition against a self-supporting nation-state without outside assistance. The implication for future strategic air operations is important. Because attacks on electric power cause indirect collateral damage which can be politically counterproductive, and the military benefit is minimal, the United States should reject attacks on national electrical power systems in the near future.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A new idea is planted.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041221635835904481

As long as the US can deliver on the safe passage, companies would pay.

 

[brihard]

At this point just enjoy the show.

Nothing enjoyable about all this...

 

[HavokFour]

As long as the US can deliver on the safe passage, companies would pay.

In what way could they guarantee the safety of ships from Iran with a toll? 100+ ships crossed the strait every day before the war, there's a reason why the USN isn't escorting ships now and the US charging a toll instead of Iran isn't going to change that.

Unless the plan is for the US to take up the role for Iran of shooting at ships and blocking the strait themselves.