Iran Super Thread- Merged

[dangerboy]

 

[Genetk44]

TACO!!!!!!

 

[dangerboy]

Funny how it is always in 2 weeks.

 

[Lumber]

I love TACO Tuesday!

 

[daftandbarmy]

Funny how it is always in 2 weeks.

A "Fortnite"

 

[brihard]

Screw the TACO crap. This is infinitely preferable to him continuing to wipe out economic and civil infrastructure. If he wants to go on Truth Social and jerk himself off, fly to Vegas to collect his Polymarket Peace Prize or what have you- he can have at ‘er. This conflict simmering down is much better for the world.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Holy crap! Two week ceasefire announced. Little detail on the terms or how comprehensive it is, but it’s a start. It does appear conditional on the Strait reopening.

Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz - follow live

Pakistan had proposed the ceasefire after the US president threatened that "a whole civilisation will die tonight" if Iran did not agree to a deal

www.bbc.com

I started moving cash into the market last week and again today. I had a feeling it would go this route

 

[Czech_pivo]

Dow futures jump 700 points, oil tumbles after Trump suspends Iran attacks for two weeks
Dow futures jump 700 points, oil tumbles after Trump suspends Iran attacks for two weeks: Live updates

 

[Genetk44]

personally I would love to see what soothing verbiage our PAO’s could conjure up in the last few hours prior to a deadline set by Canada (Great Power Edition) before we make good on a threat to wipe out a distant civilization.

Screw the TACO crap. This is infinitely preferable to him continuing to wipe out economic and civil infrastructure. If he wants to go on Truth Social and jerk himself off, fly to Vegas to collect his Polymarket Peace Prize or what have you- he can have at ‘er. This conflict simmering down is much better for the world.

I’m pretty sure we all agree with your sentiment and agree that lowering the temperature is a good thing…..,but he still TACOED

 

[Genetk44]

I started moving cash into the market last week and again today. I had a feeling it would go this route

Not to mention all the money made in aluminium over the past week.

 

[McG]

I don’t see any confirmation that Iran has also agreed to a ceasefire…

 

[Underway]

We'll see if its an actual ceasefire. IRGC run in their own cells with their own CoC without in many cases centralized control.

Getting them all to lay off the drone strikes would require coordination and communication. I suspect tomorrow there will be scattered drone shots still, even IF Iran agreed to a ceasefire.

Also its interesting that this comes out right now because Saudi oil was hit today by ballistic missiles. Processing plants that supply the Ras Tanura (sp?) terminal were hit by "debris" (aka... we missed one). Up until this point Qatar, UAE and Kuwait were taking the brunt of the attacks, but now that those folks are out of interceptors, Saudi's are going to get hit.

If that place takes to much damage it won't matter if the SoH is open or not. Nothing will flow out of it.

 

[ytz]

My only question is .... How long before the Israelis violate the ceasefire?

I'm not yet convinced that both sides are done. I think the regime needs to reload and recalibrate. And I think the Israelis and Americans were running out of targets. They need to rebaseline Pattern of life, so they need to have some activity going on.

 

[brihard]

I don’t see any confirmation that Iran has also agreed to a ceasefire…

AJE is reporting they have.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041657830483407242

However, Iran has also launched more missiles at Israel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041649265332645928

 

[Underway]

However, Iran has also launched more missiles at Israel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041649265332645928

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Takes a day or two to distribute that information and reign in the IRGC, depending on who's in charge. And given the organizational dispersion of Iranian politics/religious class/military class, some of those IRGC folks might not recognize the people who are negotiation the ceasefire as legitimate.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Iran and Israel have been, and will continue to be, in a standalone conflict.

 

[brihard]

Now that the immediate “holy crap thank God” is passing, I don’t know how the hell Iran’s plan can possibly be acceptable to the U.S. Allowing enrichment? Removing sanctions? Owning and tolling the strait? Withdrawing military forces from the region?

That’s a successful hostage play if the final deal lands anywhere close to that.

 

[HavokFour]

Now that the immediate “holy crap thank God” is passing, I don’t know how the hell Iran’s plan can possibly be acceptable to the U.S. Allowing enrichment? Removing sanctions? Owning and tolling the strait? Withdrawing military forces from the region?

That’s a successful hostage play if the final deal lands anywhere close to that.

It's the same 10 point plan Trump rejected on the 21st(?). I have a feeling this ceasefire isn't going to last 2 weeks.

I give it until Friday after markets close.

 

[ytz]

The only way to get more targets is to get the regime out of their bunkers, moving and talking. In the meantime, it gives enough time for trapped ships and people to leave the Gulf.

But the regime has realized that controlling the Strait is more powerful than any nuke. They aren't going to back off that easily.

 

[Lumber]

Screw the TACO crap. This is infinitely preferable to him continuing to wipe out economic and civil infrastructure. If he wants to go on Truth Social and jerk himself off, fly to Vegas to collect his Polymarket Peace Prize or what have you- he can have at ‘er. This conflict simmering down is much better for the world.