Iran Super Thread- Merged

[brihard]

The only way to get more targets is to get the regime out of their bunkers, moving and talking. In the meantime, it gives enough time for trapped ships and people to leave the Gulf.

But the regime has realized that controlling the Strait is more powerful than any nuke. They aren't going to back off that easily.

If a deal is eventually reached where Iran gets to toll shipping in the strait, that alone would be jaw dropping, and a complete reversal of a ton of maritime law. And the revenue Iran would stand to gain is considerable.

If Iran is able to extract a significant reduction or elimination of sanctions as part of this, that would also be an incredible gain for them.

It sounds like this ceasefire is just to allow direct negotiations to begin. I think the respective positions are still pretty far apart.

 

[Cloud Cover]

It’s not simmering down. It’s just entering a new phase.

 

[brihard]

It’s not simmering down. It’s just entering a new phase.

We’ll see. Negotiations are to start on Friday in Islamabad.

 

[daftandbarmy]

We’ll see. Negotiations are to start on Friday in Islamabad.

Too bad Abbottabad was already booked up

 

[Czech_pivo]

We’ll see. Negotiations are to start on Friday in Islamabad.

At the Marriott?

 

[brihard]

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council released a statement for domestic consumption, about what you’d expect.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041655270045085770

CNN reported on the contents and tone of this Iranian framing of the ceasefire. Trump has not really taken it well.

 

[GR66]

I wonder if part of the reason for Trump's reversal might have been push back from the military on being asked to strike a target set that could potentially be deemed as amounting to war crimes. With most valid military sites already hit and the military reluctant to expand the targeting what choice would Trump have except to agree to a ceasefire?

 

[HavokFour]

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council released a statement for domestic consumption, about what you’d expect.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041655270045085770

CNN reported on the contents and tone of this Iranian framing of the ceasefire. Trump has not really taken it well.

View attachment 99601

Ok, maybe earlier than Friday.

 

[FJAG]

I wonder if part of the reason for Trump's reversal might have been push back from the military on being asked to strike a target set that could potentially be deemed as amounting to war crimes. With most valid military sites already hit and the military reluctant to expand the targeting what choice would Trump have except to agree to a ceasefire?

Keep an eye open for future GOFO retirements/firings . . . The only thing saving 'Dumb McNamara' right now is that it would be hard to sell whatever comes out of this mess as a MAGA victory if the SecDef were fired.

 

[HavokFour]

Gulf states are thrilled.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041675191860842673

 

[Navy_Pete]

If a deal is eventually reached where Iran gets to toll shipping in the strait, that alone would be jaw dropping, and a complete reversal of a ton of maritime law. And the revenue Iran would stand to gain is considerable.

If Iran is able to extract a significant reduction or elimination of sanctions as part of this, that would also be an incredible gain for them.

It sounds like this ceasefire is just to allow direct negotiations to begin. I think the respective positions are still pretty far apart.

I think they will be getting $2M per ship for the ones going through now; unclear if that's from the shipping companies or compensation from the US, from what one of the news articles reported.

That's peanuts compared to the value of the oil onboard, but still an incredible turnaround from maritime norms. But with the gas rationing now ongoing throughout Asia, and still being another month or so before the tankers that start getting through now get there, don't see prices dropping anytime soon.

 

[MrWhyt]

At the Marriott?

Four Seasons Landscaping's Islamabad branch

 

[Cloud Cover]

Four Seasons Landscaping's Islamabad branch

Is Rudy negotiating?

 

[mariomike]

Is Rudy negotiating?

Whatever happened to Rudy?

 

[HavokFour]

So the NYT released an article before the deadline with details on how Trump decided to start this thing with Iran.

You'll never guess who's pulled the short straw. Hint: His department is currently running with an unofficial rename.

The blame game begins.

How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran

In a series of Situation Room meetings, President Trump weighed his instincts against the deep concerns of his vice president and a pessimistic intelligence assessment. Here’s the inside story of how he made the fateful decision.

www.nytimes.com

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