Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Altair]

Probably. They're paying about $1.50 CAD per litre; the US isn't a country with a food security problem; and they'll mostly be the last ones suffering as things run down. You're describing problems that are much more acute for a lot of other countries, most of which seem to be reassuring themselves that they're not involved and this is Very Bad For America So It's OK.

A little less projection of other peoples' worries onto the US is in order.

Alright, fair. Americans probably don't care much about global famine or a global economic crisis.

But they do tend to care about themselves. American exposure to high gas prices is actually a not insignificant drag on their economic fortunes. Sure, they won't suffer supply side shocks from this, but from a consumer spending perspective they are just as exposed as every other nation. WTI was recently trading for more than Brent, partially because of how much demand there is for US energy right now. Unless the US government implements export bans that's another hit to the pocket books of American consumers.

Toss in that Americans drive a lot and drive bigger vehicles than lets say the average European, and yes, I can think that Americans are not very happy with their current situation.

Especially since, as I think it's been established, Americans in general dont care what other nations are doing so I doubt they are happily seeing their personal financial situation deteriorating just so they can put the screws to the gulf states and Iran for the benefit of Israel.

US inflation hit 3.3 percent in March. And as we saw with how unhappy the American public was with high inflation under the Dems, you can maybe understand why Iran is probably more than comfortable with the current situation and why Trump is raging daily about the strait on social media.

Israel and Iran seem more than comfortable engaging in a race to the bottom, the USA less so, but they are stuck in this as much as the rest of the global economy until the strait is opened.

Or as I see it from the Iranian perspective

 

[daftandbarmy]

FAFO time …

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[Brad Sallows]

Alright, fair. Americans probably don't care much about global famine or a global economic crisis.

Why should they? Almost all famine is caused by governments in their own countries, and the "economic crisis" exists only because Iran won't confine its war with Israel/US to attacks on Israel/US and their facilities. "Well it's rational for them to do this thing that is actually a crime under statutory/customary international law" still puts it on Iran. Those are both problems with easy solutions: stop using food as a weapon (applies to many countries), and stop attacks on neutral shipping and on infrastructure that doesn't really yield any military advantage (applies to Iran).

The people stuck with Rorshach are the ordinary Persians living under a tyranny that imports Arab zealots from neighbouring nations to help them do their rough stuff.

 

[Altair]

Why should they? Almost all famine is caused by governments in their own countries, and the "economic crisis" exists only because Iran won't confine its war with Israel/US to attacks on Israel/US and their facilities.

Poor countries that are dealing with rising fertilizer costs and other supply shocks aren't really the cause of their own famines for the most part, they seem victims of circumstance.

"Well it's rational for them to do this thing that is actually a crime under statutory/customary international law" still puts it on Iran.

It's certainly a crime. But talking about asymmetric warfare, the USA has historically been weak when fighting those conflicts from a strategic point of view. Americans dominate the tactical battlefield, but when nations or groups use asymmetric warfare agaisnt the USA who is bound by the rules of war, the Americans eventually grow frustrated or bored and want out. Vietnam, Afghanistan. Won most every battle, lost the war.

Iran is pushing to add themselves to that winners list, war crimes be damned. Doesn't make it right, but it's the reality of the situation.

Those are both problems with easy solutions: stop using food as a weapon (applies to many countries), and stop attacks on neutral shipping and on infrastructure that doesn't really yield any military advantage (applies to Iran).

As long as Iran continues to do this with a suicidal fanaticism they hold the global economy hostage and they put immense strain on democracies around the world.

Inflation knocked out many leaders during COVID, including paving the way for PP to take down Trudeau, and Carney to take over, including paving the way for Trump to replace the Democrats.

The only saving grace for most democracies around the world is they can point right at Washington and Tel Aviv as the source of their pain, as Starmer has started to do. Washington doesn't have that luxury.

The people of Iran, those stuck between a genocidal regime and the Americans who are musing about bombing them into the stone age and taking out their civilian infrastructure are indeed the real losers, but seeing as they are prisoners they don't get a lot of agency here.

The trump administration has locked themselves into a cage with a rabid Iranian hardline government that is pretty much saying that the Americans can bomb them for the next 3 years and they won't open the strait because they can tolerate the pain.

Can the Americans tolerate this? I doubt it. Trump has domestic political considerations the iranians just don't need to deal with. They are locked in there with Iran now, not the other way around.

 

[armrdsoul77]

Operation Epic Fury U.S. Aircraft Losses Visualized

 

[Altair]

Operation Epic Fury U.S. Aircraft Losses Visualized
View attachment 99681

PACOM weeps.